Economics Commons^™

A Three-State Markov Model For Predicting Movements Of Asset Returns Of A Nigerian Bank, Maruf A. Raheem, Patrick O. Ezepue

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

We present in this paper an alternative approach to determining and predicting the fluctuations in the daily prices and stock returns of a first-generation bank in the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM). The approach uses a three-state Markov to estimate the expected duration of the asset returns in states classified as rising (positive) (𝑅𝑘), falling (negative) state (𝑅𝑚) or stable (zero) state (𝑅𝑙). Related goodness-of-fit tests show that the Markov model fits the data adequately with an error rate of approximately 0.1. The maximum expected lengths of successively being in either positive or negative regime is 4 days, while that of …

Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of fiscal policy shocks on output and unemployment in Nigeria under the Keynesian framework by employing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology to analyse annual series on the relevant variables for the period 1981-2015. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for unit root result shows all variables to be integrated of order one and Johansen Cointegration test confirms the presence of long run association among the variables. Findings of the SVAR model shows shock in public expenditure as having a positive long- lasting effect on output. Revenue shock was found to exert a positive effect (lower …

On Building Inference For The Statistical Neural Network With Application To Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate Efficiency: A Bootstrap Approach, Christopher Godwin Udomboso Dr, Francisco U. Saliu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this study, we developed an inference procedure for the neural network using the bootstrap approach, and applied it to the market efficiency of the Nigerian exchange rate. Data used are exchange rate values from 2001 to 2015. We conducted a test on the market efficiency hypothesis, including test for relevance of individual and joint network inputs using method of partial derivative. The network architecture used is the multilayer perceptron. A valid statistical inference based on the estimated Statistical Neural Network was conducted using a well-known statistical resampling technique. Test of hypothesis that input or groups of inputs are relevant …

Modelling Nigerian Banks’ Share Prices Using Smooth Transition Garch Models, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Damola M. Akinlana, Olanrewaju I. Shittu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examined the application of nonlinear Smooth Transition-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ST-GARCH) model of Hagerud on prices of banks’ shares in Nigeria. The methodology is informed by the failure of the conventional GARCH model to capture the asymmetric properties of the banks’ daily share prices. The asymmetry and non-linearity in the model dynamics make it useful for generating nonlinear conditional variance series. From the empirical analysis, we obtained the conditional volatility of each bank’s share price return. The highest volatility persistence was observed in Bank 6, while Bank 12 had the least volatility. Evidently, about 25% of the investigated …

Modelling Volatility Of The Exchange Rate Of The Naira To Major Currencies, Reuben O. David, Hussaini G. Dikko, Shehu U. Gulumbe

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The exchange rate between the Naira and other currencies has continued to witness variability with depreciation. This variability makes it difficult to predict returns. Against this background, this paper examines the naira exchange rate vis-a-vis four other currencies. The impact of exogenous variables in modelling volatility is considered using both the GARCH (1,1) and its asymmetric variants. Three of the four returns series showed heteroscedasticity. The results of the fitted models indicate that the majority of the parameters are significant and that volatility is quite persistent. Furthermore, the results of the asymmetric model indicate different impacts for both negative and …

Short Selling Meets Hedge Fund 13f: An Anatomy Of Informed Demand, Yawen Jiao, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The existing literature treats the short side (i.e., short selling) and the long side of hedge fund trading (i.e., fund holdings) independently. The two sides, however, complement each other: opposite changes in the two are likely to be driven by information, whereas simultaneous increases (decreases) of the two may be motivated by hedging (unwinding) considerations. We use this intuition to identify informed demand and document that it exhibits highly significant predictive power over returns (approximately 10% per year). We also find that informed demand forecasts future firm fundamentals, suggesting that hedge funds play an important role in information discovery. (C) …

The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and …

The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and …

The Nominalistic Principle: A Legal Approach To Inflation, Deflation, Devaluation And Revaluation, Alain H. Sheer

Georgia Journal of International & Comparative Law

No abstract provided.

Taxation – Selection Of Exchange Rate For Translation Purposes -- Where Multiple Exchange Rates Exist For A Foreign Currency And The Underlying Transaction Is Financial In Nature, The Proper Rate For Translation Components Of Taxable Income Is The "Free" Market Rate (Durovic V. Commissioner Of Internal Revenue, 7th Cir. 1976), Tim J. Floyd

Georgia Journal of International & Comparative Law

No abstract provided.

Winning And Other Determinants Of Revenue In North America's Major Professional Sports Leagues, John Charles Bradbury

Faculty Articles

This study investigates recent determinants of revenue in North America’s four major professional sports leagues. Estimates reveal that revenue is positively associated with winning in baseball (MLB), basketball (NBA), and hockey (NHL), but not in football (NFL). The returns to winning are not diminishing as commonly assumed, which casts doubt on the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, and differences across leagues are consistent with revenue sharing arrangements. Estimates also indicate a strong negative relationship between stadium age and revenue, which is consistent with observed rapid replacement of sports stadiums. The results have several important implications for economic models of sports leagues.

2016 State Of The Commonwealth Report, James V. Koch, Vinod Agarwal, Barbara Blake-Gonzalez, Terry L. Clower, Vicky Curtis, Steve Daniel, Larry "Chip" Filer, Tim Komarek, Feng Lian, Sharon Lomax, Wolfgang Mairinger, Alice Mcadory, Robert Mcnab, Janet Molinaro, Mike Phelps, Ken Plum

Economics Faculty Books

This is the second State of the Commonwealth Report produced by the Center for Economic Analysis and Policy at Old Dominion University. It is jointly sponsored by ODU's Strome College of Business and the Virginia Chamber of Commerce. While the report represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the university, it does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion, or it's president, John R. Broderick. Similarly, it does not represent the views of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce or it's president, Barry DuVal.

The report maintains the goal of stimulating thought and discussion that ultimately …

Days To Cover And Stock Returns, Harrison G. Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Sophie X. Ni, Jose A. Scheinkman, Philip Yan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

A crowded trade emerges when speculators' positions are large relative to the asset's liquidity, making exit difficult. We study this problem of recent regulatory concern by focusing on short-selling. We show that days to cover (DTC), the ratio of short interest to trading volume, measures the costliness of exiting crowded trades. Crowding is an important concern as short-sellers avoid illiquid stocks, which we establish using an instrumental-variables strategy involving staggered stock market decimalization reforms. Arbitrageurs require a premium to enter into such trades as a strategy shorting high DTC stocks and buying low DTC stocks generates a 1.2% monthly return. …

Invitation Strategy For Cutting Edge Industries Through Mncs And Global Talents: The Case Of Singapore, Kim Song Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore presents an interesting case of how a country achieves dynamic economic development and innovation through the "invitation" strategy of a business hub. Despite being a small city-state with limited domestic market size and no meaningful hinterland or natural resources to speak of, Singapore has managed to transform its economy dramatically over the past 50 years by leveraging the strengths of other economies. Specifically, it has been able to attract (or "invite") various types of productive resources, including foreign capital, foreign technology and foreign workers (both skilled and unskilled) to make up for what it lacks. This has helped Singapore …

A Discourse On Diversity: The Impact Of Management Team Heterogeneity On Firm Performance., Robert J. Brown

Undergraduate Economic Review

Quantile models are used to test the association between management team gender, ethnic and educational diversity and firm performance, employing an IV technique developed by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2008) to address the potential endogeneity issues. Estimated associations between measures of diversity and firm EBITDA margins are close to zero across much of the dependent variable distribution, but increase in magnitude for higher margin firms. No evidence of a statistically significant causal relationship between gender and ethnic diversity and firm EBITDA margins is found. Marginal evidence of a statistically significant association between margins and educational diversity is found for high margin …

Federal Home Loan Bank Advances And Bank And Thrift Holding Company Risk: Evidence From The Stock Market, Scott Deacle, Elyas Elyasiani

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Using bivariate GARCH models of stock portfolio returns and risk, we find that bank and thrift holding companies that relied the most on Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances exhibited less total risk and market risk than those that relied on them the least between 2001 and 2012. When we control for differences in holding company size, stock trading volume, residential mortgage lending, and holding company type (bank vs. thrift), the most FHLB-reliant holding companies sustain the aforesaid risk advantages except during the crisis of 2007–2009, when they exhibit greater idiosyncratic risk. The latter finding suggests that investors perceived the …

Gleaning As A Transformational Business Model For Solidarity With The Poor And Marginalized, Bruce D. Baker

SPU Works

“Gleaning” refers to the mandate within the Mosaic Law that harvesters should leave behind “gleanings” for the sake of the poor who subsist on the literal and figurative margins of society. Although this biblical mandate is generally neglected and considered irrelevant in modern business practice, it holds powerful lessons to help guide modern businesses into transformational solidarity with the poor and marginalized. This paper interprets the biblical significance of gleaning, to discern how the principles of gleaning, though rooted in ancient agrarian culture, might be applicable to modern business which is generally far removed from agriculture. The exegesis and analysis …

A Strange Revolution: Mock Compliance And The Failure Of The Oecd’S International Tax Transparency Regime, Richard Woodward

Books/Book Chapters

No abstract provided.

A Roadmap For Reducing Gun Violence In America, Daniel Webster

Center for Policy Research

How do you reduce gun violence in America? It seems rather daunting. I’m going to take you through some key things I think we can do to have far less gun violence in America

The State Of The Region: Hampton Roads 2016, James V. Koch, Vinod Agarwal, Christopher B. Colburn, Vicky Curtis, Steve Daniel, Larry "Chip" Filer, Timothy Komarek, Feng Lian, Sharon Lomax, Wolfgang Mairinger, Alice Mcadory, Robert Mcnab, Janet Molinaro, Lisa Suhay

Economics Faculty Books

This is Old Dominion University's 17th annual State of the Region report. While it represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the university, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion or it's president, John R. Broderick. The report maintains the goal of stimulating thought and discussion that ultimately will make Hampton Roads an even better place to live. We are proud of our region's many successes, but realize that it is possible to improve our performance. In order to do so, we must have accurate information about "where we are" and a …

Holistic Approach: Paradigm Shift In The Research Agenda For Digitalisation Of Healthcare In Sub-Saharan Africa, Tadeusz K. Bara-Slupski

The African Journal of Information Systems

Despite significant resources employed in the digitalisation agenda in the healthcare sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, the transformative impact of information and communication technologies has not been realised. This article makes two contributions towards developing an understanding of this failure. First, it provides a review of a rich body of academic literature and practitioner accounts regarding barriers to digitalisation and organises them using an established framework. Second, recognising the continuing struggle that digitalisation presents, it proposes a paradigmatic shift in thinking about barriers to digitalisation and suggests the existence of a more fundamental barrier related to inappropriate incentives within the international …

Housing Policies In Singapore, Phang Sock Yong, Matthias Helble

Research Collection School of Economics

Singapore has developed a unique housing system, with three-quarters of its housing stock built by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) and homeownership financed through Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings. As a result, the country’s homeownership rate of 90% is one of the highest among market economies. At different stages of its economic development, the Government of Singapore was faced with a different set of housing problems. An integrated land–housing supply and financing framework was established in the 1960s to solve the severe housing shortage. By the 1990s, the challenge was that of renewing aging estates and creating a market …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 19, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Consumer Anger And Brand Reputation, Kimberly Legocki, Kristen Walker

School of Economics and Business Administration Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

The Impact Of Urban Sprawl On Journey To Work Times For Mass Transit And All Other Commuters In The United States: A Research Note, Thomas E. Lambert, Hokey Min, Kyle Dorriere

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

As government budgets get tighter, there has been considerable public outcry about the continued investment in public mass transit systems and their financial viability. Amid this outcry, a number of studies have been conducted to determine which factors influence the use and efficiency of publicly-funded mass transit systems. These factors include population density and less sprawl (or greater urban compactness). However, their impact on mass transit usage is somewhat contradictory in that the heavy concentration of populations in the urban area and greater compactness is believed to increase mass transit usage due to a bigger number of potential passengers. In …

Entrepreneurial Orientation: A Global Asset For National Development., Sunday Alewo Omale, Kate Obianuju Chima

Bullion

This paper appraised the outcome of Entrepreneurial Orientation on national development . Entrepreneurial orientation (EO) deals with the level in which nations or firms strategically educate its citizens or members to promote entrepreneurial culture to gain economic benefits. EO entails dimensions of innovation, proactiveness and risk taking. It is held that entrepreneurial orientation is required for a successful national development. innovativeness ls the predisposition to engage in creativity and experimentation through the introduction of new products/ services as well as technological leadership and advancement. To drive home the aims of this investigation, relevant data were sourced from management journals, bulletin …

How To Fly A Horse: The Secret History Of Creation, Invention, And Discovery (Book Review), Kevin Timmer

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

Reviewed Title: How to Fly a Horse: The Secret History of Creation, Invention, and Discovery by Kevin Ashton. New York: Doubleday, 2015. 336 pages. ISBN: 9780385538596.

Textual Analysis And Machine Leaning: Crack Unstructured Data In Finance And Accounting, Li Guo, Feng Shi, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In finance and accounting, relative to quantitative methods traditionally used, textual analysis becomes popular recently despite of its substantially less precise manner. In an overview of the literature, we describe various methods used in textual analysis, especially machine learning. By comparing their classification performance, we find that neural network outperforms many other machine learning techniques in classifying news category. Moreover, we highlight that there are many challenges left for future development of textual analysis, such as identifying multiple objects within one single document.

Asset Pricing With Financial Bubble Risk, Ji Hyung Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper characterizes systematic risk stemming from the possible occurrence of price bubbles and measures the impact of this additional risk factor on asset prices. Historical stock market behavior and recent empirical experience have led economists and policy makers to acknowledge that price bubbles in financial markets do occur and need to be accounted for in risk analysis. New econometric tools for analyzing mildly explosive behavior (Phillips and Magdalinos, 2007; Phillips et al., 2011) have made it possible to detect the presence of bubbles in data and to date stamp their origination and collapse, providing empirical confirmation of such episodes …

Feats And Failures Of Corporate Credit Risk, Stock Returns, And The Interdependencies Of Sovereign Credit Risk, Uche C. Isiugo

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation comprises two essays; the first of which investigates sovereign credit risk interdependencies, while the second examines the reaction of corporate credit risk to sovereign credit risk events. The first essay titled, Characterizing Sovereign Credit Risk Interdependencies: Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market, investigates the relationships that exist among disparate sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and the implications on sovereign creditworthiness. We exploit emerging market sovereign CDS spreads to examine the reaction of sovereign credit risk to changes in country-specific and global financial factors. Utilizing aVAR model fitted with DCC GARCH, we find that comovements of spreads …