Economics Commons^™

Forecasting The Volatilities Of The Nigeria Stock Market Prices, Sikiru O. Ibrahim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The objective of this work is to assess and forecast the volatilities of prices on the Nigeria Stock Exchange. The ARCH family (ARCH, GARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH and PGARCH) and ARIMA models are used to assess and forecast volatilities in prices on the Nigeria stock market. The EGARCH model is found to be the most efficient for forecasting volatilities and has the capability to show the asymmetric effect. The assessment of volatilities in prices for 1985 to 2014 shows clustering, over the years. The forecasting performance shows the volatility in the Nigeria stock market to be on the increase for the …

Determinants Of Fdi And Fpi Volatility: An E-Garch Approach, Philip I. Nwosa, Omolade Adeleke

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examined the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) volatility in Nigeria. The study used annual data covering the periods 1986 to 2016 and the EGARCH approach was employed. The study observed that trade openness and world GDP were the significant determinants of FDI volatility, while domestic interest rate and stock market capitalization were significant determinants of FPI volatility in Nigeria. Other variables were insignificant in influencing volatility in FDI and FPI. Consequently, the study recommends the need for the prudent management of these determinants (with particular reference to indigenous variables) to ensure reduced …

Determinants Of Financial Inclusion In Sub-Saharan Africa Countries: Does Institutional Infrastructure Matter?, Kazeem B. Ajide

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the determinants of financial inclusion by specially accounting for the role of institutions in a panel of eighteen (18) subSaharan Africa (SSA) countries using a dynamic system of Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM). The emanated findings consistently stress the importance of institutions together with other control variables like GDP per capita, inflation, bank concentration and z-score as key drivers of FI. In the final analysis, the paper emphasizes the importance of using dimension by dimension indicators of governance as well as a composite governance index instead of relying solely on the latter as a basis of informing …

On The Properties Of The Weibull-Burr Iii Distribution And Its Application To Uncensored And Censored Survival Data, Aliyu Yakubu, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Twelve different families of cumulative distributions that are used to model real life data were introduced by Burr (1942). Burr III distribution is among these families of cumulative distributions. In this work, a four-parameter distribution is introduced to model real life scenarios called Weibull-Burr III distribution. The limiting behavior of the proposed distribution, hazard function, moments, skewness, kurtosis and quantile function is investigated; order statistics and entropy are also derived. The method of Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique was used in estimating the parameters of the proposed distribution. To prove the flexibility and performance of the distribution and Weibull-G family of …

The Consumption-Oriented Capital Asset Pricing Model In The Nigerian Stock Exchange, Abidemi C. Adegboye

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this study, the Consumption-oriented Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) is tested for Nigeria by considering returns on investments in the Nigerian Stock Exchange market and other financial assets for the period 1993: Q1 to 2016:Q4. Three tests are conducted. The first test examines forecast performance of excess returns for the selected portfolios in predicting future consumption; the second test estimates the consumption betas for the set of assets using two alternative formulations of the CCAPM; and the third test included consumption growth variable in a multifactor risk analysis to compare with the basic CAPM formulations. The empirical results indicates …

An Assessment Of The Impact Of Banking Reforms On Economic Growth And Bank Performance In Nigeria, Matthew O. Gidigbi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study assesses the impact of banking reforms on banks’ performance and economic growth for the period 1981 to 2015 by fitting an ANOVA model into Stepwise Regression. Using dummy variables to isolate reform periods, results show that banking reforms contribute positively to economic growth, especially in the period 1999 to 2004. Also, banking reforms are found to contribute negatively to banks’ performance, following the 1993 reforms. The study confirms that banking system reforms in Nigeria have dual impact on the economy and banks’ performance. The banking reforms are capable of promoting growth in the economy. Thus, the study recommends …

Clogged Intermediation: Were Home Buyers Crowded Out?, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun-Soo Choi, Jung-Eun Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Post-crisis policy interventions significantly increased the demand for mortgage refinancing, but could this surge in refinancing applications have crowded out the supply of credit to home buyers? In this paper, we examine two frictions that hamper financial intermediation and result in banks' substitution of home purchase loans for refinance loans: The risk capacity channel through which banks with limited risk appetites prefer safer loans over riskier loans, and the operating capacity channel through which banks with limited operating capacities prefer applications that require less screening time. We find that following the recent financial crisis, banks facing these capacity constraints indeed …

Cultural Preferences In International Trade: Evidence From The Globalization Of Korean Pop Culture, Pao-Li Chang, Iona Hyojung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Korean pop culture (TVdramas and K-pop music) has grown immensely popular across the globe over thepast two decades. This paper analyzes its impacts on international trade. We compilea cross-country panel dataset of South Korea's TV show exports to over 150countries for the period of 1998{2014. These variations in exposure to Koreanpop cultures are used to identify changes in consumer preferences for Koreanmerchandise across time, countries, and products (at the HS 4-digit level).First, we find that more Korean TV show exports significantly increase Koreanexports of goods for women, while the effects are much smaller on men'smerchandise. This strongly supports the …

Clogged Intermediation: Were Home Buyers Crowded Out?, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun-Soo Choi, Jung-Eun Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Post-crisis policy interventions significantly increased the demand for mortgage refinancing, but could this surge in refinancing applications have crowded out the supply of credit to home buyers? In this paper, we examine two frictions that hamper financial intermediation and result in banks' substitution of home purchase loans for refinance loans: The risk capacity channel through which banks with limited risk appetites prefer safer loans over riskier loans, and the operating capacity channel through which banks with limited operating capacities prefer applications that require less screening time. We find that following the recent financial crisis, banks facing these capacity constraints indeed …

Performance Evaluation And Risk Management: Time Series Bootstrap Analysis Of The Mutual Funds And Banking Sectors, Lifa Huang

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, also known as the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (“Act”), repealed a regulatory proscription in the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933 that prohibited commercial bank holding companies (BHCs) from underwriting most bonds, equities, and insurance policies. After the passage of the Act in November 1999, BHCs that converted to financial holding companies (FHCs) were allowed to engage in securities underwriting without restrictions. The first paper examines whether the removal of barriers to securities underwriting had an adverse impact on the overall stability of the financial sector, and thereby, contributed indirectly to the financial crisis of 2008. The …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: November 22, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.24% during October of 2017. The decrease in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that economic growth will slow in Nebraska during the second quarter of 2018. The fall in the indicator was due to an decline in building permits for single-family homes and manufacturing hours-worked. There also was an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar in October. The increase in the value of the dollar is challenging for Nebraska exporters. In terms of positive components, there was a …

Social Disadvantage And Child Health Among China's Rural-Urban Migrant Households, Yana Vander Meulen Rogers

Seminars in Local and Global Regional Economies

This talk examines how social disadvantage among rural-urban migrant households in China is associated with the nutritional status of children. The measures of social disadvantage are based on China’s hukou system of household registration – designed to limit domestic migration flows by denying public services in cities to migrants with rural registrations – and on gender bias that may harm women and girls.

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: November 3, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska’s consumer confidence remained weak during October while business confidence remained strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 95.1 in October, below the neutral value of 100.0. By contrast, the Nebraska business confidence remained strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 102.7 in October, below the September level of 105.2 but above the neutral value of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 31 percent of business respondents. Businesses also faced growing competition in both the labor and product markets. The availability and quality of …

Permanent Price Impact Asymmetry Of Trades With Institutional Constraints, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Pankaj Jain, Christine Jiang, Vivek Sharma

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Dynamic institutional trading constraints related to capital, diversification, and short-selling asymmetrically affect the incorporation of new information as reflected in the permanent price impact of their trades. The sign of the permanent price impact asymmetry between institutional buys versus sells is positive at the initial stage of a price run-up and reverses due to changing constraints with a prolonged price run-up in a stock. Idiosyncratic volatility, analyst forecast dispersion, trading intensity, price dispersion, and bullish market conditions further sharpen the initial asymmetry, as well as its reversal after a price run-up.

The Flow Of Funds In Asean, Philip C. Zerrillo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In his novel, Memoirs of a Geisha, Arthur Golden wrote, “Water can carve its way even through stone. And when trapped, water makes a new path.” Something similar seems to be happening with the flow of funds in ASEAN.

Geopolitics Of Rare Earth Elements, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Rare earth elements (REE) contain unique chemical physical properties such as lanthamum, are found in small concentrations, need extensive precise properties to separate, and are critical components of modern technologies such as laser guidance systems, personal electronics such as IPhones, satellites, and military weapons systems as varied as Virginia-class fast attack submarines, DDG-51 Aegis destroyers, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and precision guided munitions. The U.S. has some rare earth resources, but is heavily dependent on access to them from countries as varied as Afghanistan, Bolivia, and China. Losing access to these resources would have significant adverse economic, military, and …

Analysis Of Pakistan’S Debt Situation: 2000–2017, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

First, let us begin by clarifying the definitions and concepts that are used frequently and have created a lot of confusion among the laymen’s mind. Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities (TDL) consist of public debt and private debt. Total stock of outstanding debt and liabilities on June 30, 2017 stood at 79% of GDP. Of this, Gross Public Debt accounted for 85% of the total outstanding or 67.2% of GDP. The remaining 15% is the private debt mostly to borrowers outside the country, for which the government has no fiscal obligation, but the SBP has to provide foreign exchange to …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: October 25, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 1.86% during September of 2017. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests solid economic growth in Nebraska during the first quarter of 2018. The rise in the indicator was due to an increase in building permits for single-family homes and growth in manufacturing hours-worked. There also was a decline in the value of the dollar in September, which is positive for Nebraska exporters. Finally, there were positive business expectations. Businesses responding to the September Survey of Nebraska Business reported …

Protecting The Viability Of The Small Donor In Modern Elections, Ben Miller

Arkansas Law Review

Campaign finance reform stands as one of the most important issues in today’s modern elections. From national to municipal contests, the influx of large donations places wealthy individuals—and interests—at odds with the average voter. Over the years, volumes of academic and legislative reforms have been proposed that encompass a wide range of electoral subject matter. From Citizens United to Federal Elections Commission (FEC) control mechanisms, solutions on how to change our campaign finance regulatory regime cover a large and diverse area of law and policy. However, the central theme throughout these reforms is maximizing transparency and curbing the undue influence …

Determinants Of Tipping Rates: New Findings And Extensions, Christopher Carl Olson

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

There is a movement underway to eliminate the practice of tipping restaurant servers that is gaining momentum (Goldberger, 2015). In lieu of gratuities, restaurants are simply raising menu prices or assessing a service charge and paying servers a fixed hourly wage (Kummer, 2016). Before restaurateurs can adopt such a strategy, they need to thoroughly understand the factors that affect tipping behavior in order to develop meaningful fixed wage rates that do not diminish service levels or employee morale. The first step in this process is a better understanding of the determinants of tipping rates.

The existing research has identified many …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: October 6, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska’s consumer confidence tumbled during September while business confidence held steady. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) fell to 93.5 in September, well below the reading of 100.9 in August and the neutral value of 100.0. Consumer confidence is now weak in Nebraska. By contrast, the Nebraska business confidence remained strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 105.2 in September, slightly above the August value of 104.2, and well above the neutral value of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 37 percent of business respondents. Businesses …

Drivers Of Patient Satisfaction In Medical Clinics, Dana M. Johnson

TechTalks

Prior research was extended to model patient perceptions of behavioral dimensions of service quality and its impact on patient satisfaction in a rural health care organization. SEM was applied for three years of data and each individual year. Results suggest improved patient satisfaction and statistically significant differences existed between years.

An Update On The Economy, Gary A. Wagner

Economics Invited Speakers

Gary A. Wagner, vice president and senior regional officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, gave a presentation on the economy. As part of the nation’s central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of U.S. monetary policy, supervises banking organizations and provides payment and other services to financial institutions. With branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the Cleveland Fed serves Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

This presentation was sponsored by the Wright State Economics Club.

Perspectives On Language From Street Produce Vendors In Cape Town: An Examination Of Education, Trading, And Development In The Informal Sector, Hannah Oldham

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Language is vital for the functioning of societies, from education to economic interactions. Language of education presents challenges in Africa due to colonial linguistic legacies and the diversity of indigenous African languages. While education trains learners for work in the formal economy, the South African formal cannot absorb all the available labor. The informal economy therefore provides vital work and income to millions of South Africans and immigrants. Language use in the informal sector was studied, including the education and work traders had before working as street produce vendors.

Six interviews were conducted: two near the Cape Town taxi rank, …

Formalizing Through Finances: A Case Study With Unics, Leah Kellenberger

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

This paper seeks to analyze the microfinance industry in Yaoundé, Cameroon through the lens of the microfinance institution UNICS. The main question guiding this study deals with whether or not the UNICS is encouraging a shift to the formal sector through their work with business people. Other questions relating to repayment rates and subsequently economic development also remain pertinent to the information found. In total, it is found that UNICS seeks to encourage formal sector growth through their work with businesspeople in the informal. Repayment rates however do not determine success of any aspect of a customer’s business or encouragement …

2016 Nonresident Visitation, Expenditures & Economic Impact Estimates, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

A collection of 2016 full year and quarterly estimates of nonresident visitation, expenditures by nonresident travelers, and economic impact estimates, including expenditures by purpose of trip, airport of arrival, and international visitors.

The Opioid Epidemic: A Practice And Policy Perspective, Gail D'Onofrio

Center for Policy Research

I will be talking about the escalating opioid epidemic and some innovative solutions my colleagues and I at Yale University and throughout the state of Connecticut, are working on to mitigate the consequences of this public health crisis.

#Deleteuber: Hashtag Crises And Chaos, Kimberly Legocki, Kristen Walker

School of Economics and Business Administration Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 20, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

An Abbreviated Leap: The Geopolitical And Geoeconomic Significance Of The China – Pakistan Economic Corridor To The New Silk Road, Emma Nichols

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The objective of this analysis is to reveal the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the China – Pakistan Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative to its major stakeholders; Pakistan and China. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled one of the most ambitious international infrastructure plans in modern history. The plan, in its earliest stages, is currently underway with its first portion, the China – Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Through careful preliminary analysis of the greater Belt and Road Initiative, the China – Pakistan Economic Corridor, and history of Sino-Pak relations, the motivations of the collaborating nations are …