Economics Commons^™

Imputation Of Missing Values In Economic And Financial Time Series Data Using Five Principal Component Analysis Approaches, Chisimkwuo John, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Charles C. Nworu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study assesses five approaches for imputing missing values. The evaluated methods include Singular Value Decomposition Imputation (svdPCA), Bayesian imputation (bPCA), Probabilistic imputation (pPCA), Non-Linear Iterative Partial Least squares imputation (nipalsPCA) and Local Least Square imputation (llsPCA). A 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% missing data were created under a missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption using five (5) variables: Net Foreign Assets (NFA), Credit to Core Private Sector (CCP), Reserve Money (RM), Narrow Money (M1), Private Sector Demand Deposits (PSDD), from 1981 to 2019 using R-software. The five imputation methods were used to estimate the artificially generated missing values. The …

Impact Of Trade Openness On Economic Growth Among Ecowas Countries: 1975-2017, Victor U. Ijirshar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study assesses the impact of trade openness on economic growth among ECOWAS countries using secondary data from 1975 to 2017. The study uses non-stationary heterogeneous dynamic panel models through the application of Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Mean Group (MG) estimators since time dimension was more than cross-sections. Using the Hausman test, PMG estimator was preferred. Results show that trade openness has positive effects on growth in ECOWAS countries in the long-run but mixed effects in the short-run. The study therefore recommends that ECOWAS member countries improve cooperation among economic actors by using export consortia so as to help …

Is The Cfa Franc Prone To Speculative Attacks Or A Contagion Effect: A Stochastic-Markov Transition Analysis For Cameroon, Louis Sevitenyi Nkwatoh Mr

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study employs the Markovian processs on annual nominal effective exchange rate of CFA Franc spanning 1975 to 2017 to examine whether the CFA franc is prone to speculative attacks or a contagion effect. The findings reveal that the expected duration for the CFA Franc to be undervalued is twice higher than for it to be overvalued. This validates the contagion effect of a Euro crisis on the CFA Franc. Though the level of growth increased significantly during the undervaluation era, the level of uncertainty remains equally high. The findings confirm that exchange rate devaluation influences the expectations of private …

Assessing Contingent Convertible Bonds For Bank Recapitalization In Nigeria, Kabir Katata

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study estimates the parameters of credit derivatives, equity derivatives and structural models for bank recapitalisation in Nigeria by employing contingent convertibles (CoCos) and using the Nigeria Treasury Bill rate for 2009 as the risk-free rate, estimated recapitalisation requirements for the banks as at 2009 and relevant banks’ share prices for 2008 and 2009. The study finds the structural approach as the preferred model for CoCo pricing, as it reported the least pricing errors and also builds asset values of the banks from publicly-available quoted stock prices as well as deposit components of bank’s balance sheet information. The study also …

Marginal Cost Of Risk-Based Capital And Risk-Taking, Tao Chen, Jing Rong Goh, Shinichi Kamiya, Pingyi Lou

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the impact of capital adequacy requirements on financial institutions' risk-taking behavior from a novel perspective. Specifically, we show that an important feature of the risk-based capital (RBC) system a built-in diversification benefit in aggregating risk categories induces moral hazard. We find that insurers that face lower marginal RBC costs of fixed-income (FI) investment tend to purchase riskier Fl securities. This relationship holds even when lower marginal RBC costs result from increased risk in other risk categories, which is an unintended consequence of the RBC's square root rule. Using Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy as exogenous shocks to the RBC …

Tax Uncertainty And Business Activity, Jungho Lee, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the extent to which uncertainties about tax policies affect business activities. We develop a statewide tax-uncertainty measure (TU measure) and show that it captures state corporate tax uncertainty. By comparing adjacent counties across state borders, we show that increasing tax uncertainty by one standard deviation (a 30% increase in the TU measure) leads to a 0.17% point per-year decrease in the growth rate of establishments over two years. The result holds after conducting a variety of robustness checks and is not likely to be driven by general state-policy uncertainties.

Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Economics

The CPTPP, or the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is an example of a “mega-regional” free trade agreement, whose provisions on the rules of origin and trade facilitation can have potentially large impacts on the CPTPP-wide supply chains. In this paper, we investigate whether the CPTPP members are key upstream and downstream trade partners to each other in the global value chains. We develop formulas of bilateral upstreamness and downstreamness, based on the gross-export decomposition framework of Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Borin and Mancini (2017). We demonstrate how the decomposition of gross exports can be used …

Reinventing The Wheel: Comparing Family Friendly Vegas And Adult Friendly Vegas Revenue Growth, James Vaughn

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The one constant for Las Vegas is change, always looking for the Next Big Thing™. In the 1990s, Las Vegas engaged in a grand experiment: roller coasters, amusement parks, family pools and shows. In the 2000s, Las Vegas reinvented itself back to its roots: condo not amusement parks, sensual not swashbuckling shows, topless European ultra-pools not kiddie pools. While the house always wins, did the casinos of the 1990s or 2000s beat the ultimate house, going beyond nominal revenue growth into the jackpot of real revenue growth?

The Unpredictable Positive Effects Of Sports Gambling: Gamblers Think Losing Feels Worse Than It Actually Feels, Guy Voichek, Nathan Novemsky

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Implications statement

Gamblers underestimate how much fun small wagers add to enjoying sports events. They think losing will feel worse than it really does. Simple reminder can correct this misprediction.

Abstract

When considering whether to gamble on a sporting event, people may ask themselves how winning or losing will affect their experience. In a series of four experiments, we find that people under-appreciate the positive effect of gambling on watching sporting events, in a way that causes them to under-value the opportunity to place a small stakes gamble. While participants predict that a gamble will enhance or diminish an experience …

University Technology Transfer Efficiency In A Factor Driven Economy: The Need For A Coherent Policy In Egypt, Hala Elhadidi, David A. Kirby

Business Administration

The article examines the effectiveness of instruments to promote technology transfer and foster entrepreneurial innovation in Egypt where there are individual measures but no com- prehensive, unified policy or strategy to promote the transfer and commercialisation of the intellectual property stemming from university research. The study examines the extent of technology transfer in the country and the effectiveness of the various existing measures through a four-phase investigation involving in-depth interviews with experts, a question- naire survey of 400 Egyptian Science, Engineering and Technology academics, three case studies of Technology Transfer Offices and a 237 respondent industry survey. The results indicate …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 22, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.79% during April of 2019. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies moderate economic growth in Nebraska through the end of 2019. Strong business expectations were again the primary reason for the increase in the leading indicator. Respondents to the April Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. There also was growth in manufacturing hours-worked during the month.

Fresh Blood In The Labor Market: Challenges And Rewards Of China's Returning Millennial Generation, Xinyu Li

Master's Projects and Capstones

In recent years, fresh blood has begun to emerge in China’s workplace: Chinese millennials who have gone abroad to study and received an overseas education. This special experience has brought many obstacles for them when they return to the Chinese workplace, whether it is the lack of synchronization between recruitment and graduation periods in the early stage of job seeking, or the pressure they encounter later. However, this experience also creates a set of unique advantages for them. Accepting international higher education makes their resumes more attractive, brings them a global perspective, and cultivates their ability to learn new skills …

Empowering Female Entrepreneurs Through Mentorship In Medellin, Colombia: Results From The Field, Theresa Solenski

Master's Theses

Utilizing the power of local knowledge and peer networking, this study attempts to quantify the impacts of mentorship among female micro-entrepreneurs in Medellin, Colombia on empowerment. Developing countries such as Colombia have disproportionately high rates of unprofitable micro-businesses, many of which are managed by women. Internal constraints, such as disempowerment, play a central role in perpetuating poverty. We implement a 6-month mentoring intervention by pairing 18 successful entrepreneurs with 52 disadvantaged female, micro-entrepreneurs in Medellin, Colombia to measure the additional benefit of localized knowledge to micro-borrowers. Using a process of random assignment, I measure the change in female empowerment, measured …

Mentoring Female Entrepreneurs: Revenue Analysis, Candy M. Moreno Garcia

Master's Theses

Throughout the world, significantly less women own businesses than their male counterparts. In addition, they tend to own businesses that are smaller, have less growth, are less profitable and have lower sales turnover than those of men. Supporting female entrepreneurs is crucial as they tend to spend more on the health of the household, nutrition and education. This paper uses a randomized controlled trial to determine the impact of a mentorship program between experienced female entrepreneurs and inexperienced entrepreneurs, specifically focusing on the impact to profits. I use data collected from three rounds of survey over the course of six …

Economic Impact Of Pace University's Construction, Rebecca Tekula, Adrian Rivero

Wilson Center for Social Entrepreneurship

No abstract provided.

Economic Impact Of Pace University's New York City Campus, Rebecca Tekula, Adrian Rivero

Wilson Center for Social Entrepreneurship

No abstract provided.

How Will I Afford It? Financial Aid And Its Impact On Higher Education: Evidence From The State Of Mississippi, Daria Herasymova

Honors Theses

The cost of higher education, in real terms, doubled in the last twenty years, increasing faster than medical costs, the consumer price index and housing. In 1987, U.S. Secretary of Education, William J. Bennett, in the New York Times article, raised the concern that financial aid has unintended consequences of enabling higher education institution to increase tuition. In this paper, through collection of data and literature review, I examine the drivers behind the rising cost of higher education and test whether the postsecondary institutions in the state of Mississippi exhibit behavior, consistent with the Bennett Hypothesis. Using fixed-effects regression model, …

Establishing Cryptocurrency Equilibria Through Game Theory, Carey Caginalp, Gunduz Caginalp

ESI Publications

We utilize optimization methods to determine equilibria of cryptocurrencies. A core group, the wealthy, fears the loss of assets that can be seized by a government. Volatility may be influenced by speculators. The wealthy must divide their assets between the home currency and the cryptocurrency, while the government decides the probability of seizing a fraction the assets of this group. We establish conditions for existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibria. Also examined is the separate timescale problem in which the government policy cannot be reversed, while the wealthy can adjust their allocation in reaction to the government’s designation of probability.

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: May 3, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence dropped sharply in Nebraska during April 2019 while business confidence remained strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 95.6 in April, below the neutral value of 100 and well below the March value of 110.0. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 107.8 in April, well above the neutral level and down slightly from 108.9 in March. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 29 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 27 mentioned the quality and availability of labor and 19 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. Fifty-three percent …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: May 3, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence dropped sharply in Nebraska during April 2019 while business confidence remained strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 95.6 in April, below the neutral value of 100 and well below the March value of 110.0. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 107.8 in April, well above the neutral level and down slightly from 108.9 in March. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 29 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 27 mentioned the quality and availability of labor and 19 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. Fifty-three percent …

The Introduction Of Bitcoin Futures: An Examination Of Volatility And Potential Spillover Effects, Benjamin M. Blau, Ryan J. Whitby

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Theory in Stein (1987) suggests that introducing derivative contracts, such as futures, can destabilize underlying asset prices if the contracts attract enough speculative traders. This paper examines how the introduction of Bitcoin futures influences the underlying Bitcoin market. Consistent with Stein (1987), we find that that Bitcoin's volatility increases significantly during the post-introduction period. Perhaps more importantly, however, we observe significant spillover effects into related markets. For instance, in other cryptocurrencies, the increase in volatility in these markets is greater than the post-introduction increase in Bitcoin.

The Quality Of Xbrl Structured Financial Statements: An Empirical Examination Of Custom Tags, Aidana Razhap Kyzy

Theses and Dissertations

In 2009 the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) adopted the eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) system to improve the process by which financial statements can be used. Interactive financial data filed with the SEC using XBRL provides easily readable and comparable financial data, thereby improving transparency and efficiency in the corporate market. SEC rules permit companies to use custom tags in their financial reports in cases when an appropriate element cannot be found in the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) standard XBRL taxonomy. The inordinate use of custom tags may result in a reduction of financial report quality by …

The Political Economy Of Automation: Its Effects On Workers Past, Present, And Future, Brendan Klein

All College Thesis Program, 2016-2019

This paper explores the state of the skill premium between skilled and unskilled labor in light of new forms of automation entering the workforce from 2008-2017. I build off the work started by Goldin and Katz in their book, The Race Between Education and Technology, answering the question: is demand for skilled labor currently outpacing the supply of skilled labor due to new forms of automation? I start with a historical review of the race between demand and supply of skilled labor, along with a study of policy influences on skilled labor supply. I then examine the literature currently published …

The House That Credit Built: How Advertising Shaped A Culture Of Borrowing In The Decade Of Prosperity., Morgan Folden

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is an examination of the visual rhetoric of the advertisements in 1920s America that encouraged consumers to implement payment plans to purchase commodities. It begins with an analysis of a standard advertisement found in a popular subscription journal and describes the ad’s reliance on an editorial-style layout to appeal to the rationality of the viewer, a theme common among marketing schemes of the surrounding decades. It uses an art historical approach to provide a new lens in studying capitalist economics and the provocative issue of empowerment versus confinement in the general visual representation of American housewives. The latter …

U.S. Housing Market In 2019 Expected To Perform Better Than Originally Predicted - May 2019, Manuel Reyes-Loya, Marilyn Young

Hibbs Newsletter

In this issue of the Hibbs Newsletter we discuss the housing market in the U.S. generally and with a focus on East Texas.

Perceptions Of The North American Free Trade Agreement And Mexican Migration: “What Is The Relationship Between Trade Liberalization And Labor Mobility?”, Colin Gonzalez

Political Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

In an effort to understand the effectiveness of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the author uses previous academic literature to assesses the success of the North American Free Trade Agreement’s primary and peripheral goals. To understand how North American citizens, perceive NAFTA and their future relationship with one another, the author uses survey data to analyze attitudes of American and Mexican citizens towards trade liberalization (NAFTA) and labor mobility. Regression analysis reveals that there is a positive relationship between labor mobility and trade liberalization for Mexican citizens but not for American citizens. This is a significant finding that contributes …

An Exploratory Study Of The Impact Of Acculturation On Fashion Consumption Among Hispanic Immigrants In The U.S., Laura Toloza

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

With a population of 58 million in 2016, the Hispanic immigrant population in the U.S. is expected to grow nearly 30% by 2060 (Hispanic influence, 2016). Immigrants are affected by acculturation and often have difficulty maintaining their culture of origin. Prior studies have revealed acculturation influences on consumer behaviors, but despite the increased population and purchasing power of Hispanic immigrants in the U.S., few studies have explored the ways in which acculturation influences shopping behaviors for fashion products among Hispanic consumers. The purpose of this study is to explore the general attitude related to shopping (i.e., shopping orientation) of Hispanic …

Essays On Networks And Corporate Finance, Tatiana Salikhova

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In my dissertation I explore how personal networks affect firms’ financial decisions. In the first essay, I study how social connections among divisional managers affect the capital allocation to divisions in diversified conglomerates. In contrast to the previous studies, I focus on the horizontal connections or connections formed among managers of the same level of corporate hierarchy. I show that connections among divisional managers lead to higher sensitivity of segment capital spending to segment’s growth opportunities, higher firm-level allocation efficiency and higher firm value. Additionally, firms tend to strategically assign better-connected managers to these segments, and connections help to reduce …

A Better Economy By "Design", Lawrence Chong

Asian Management Insights

The air was still, and I was going nowhere with the session until I asked the participants about their kids instead of talking more about the bank. The conversations soon turned chirpy as the mothers in the group spoke over one another, sharing their hearts out about their children and their hopes for them. I felt I had unlocked something new, even though this should have been obvious as this is a very family-oriented country. This experience was part of our transformation project for a Southeast Asian bank that would reshape its digital, brand and customer engagement strategy through a …

Three Essays On Information Diffusion And Market Friction, Li Guo

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

How markets impound information into asset prices is one of the most important concerns of financial economics. Due to behavioural bias and transaction friction, information could be mispriced in the real world, thus driving market anomalies and return predictability of behavioural factors. My dissertation contributes to the literature by investigating how information can be quantified, acquired, disseminated and priced in the financial market with the existence of market frictions.

In Chapter 2, we propose an efficient method based on machine learning and textual analysis to quantify cross industry news and shed light on how news travels across different industries. The …