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Research Collection School Of Economics

2022

Articles 31 - 60 of 67

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Win: How Public Entrepreneurship Can Transform The Developing World, Tomoki Fujii Jun 2022

Win: How Public Entrepreneurship Can Transform The Developing World, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

This book provides a story about the Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL) written from the perspective of its first full-time Chief Executive Officer. For those who have never heard of IDCOL, it was created in 1997 by the Government of Bangladesh as a nonbank financial institution to fill the financial gap for developing medium- to large-scale infrastructure. IDCOL had a very modest start with a nominal paid-up capital of less than US$2,000, but its capital, equity, and reserves increased to US$110 million by 2020. During this massive expansion, IDCOL met various challenges. This book gives an account of these challenges …

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Start-Up Firms And Corporate Culture: Evidence From Advertised Corporate Culture, Jungho Lee Jun 2022

Start-Up Firms And Corporate Culture: Evidence From Advertised Corporate Culture, Jungho Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

I document advertised corporate culture among start-up firms from an online job board. Two corporate-culture types emerge, one that concerns the well-being of em- ployees (worker-centered culture) and another that emphasizes other values, such as cus- tomers, firms, and markets (firm-centered culture). The worker-centered culture attracts 20% more applications than the other culture type. Firms advertising the worker-centered culture exploit worker preference by paying 5% lower salaries than measurably similar jobs. Using a standard model of business creation, I show financially constrained start- ups are incentivized to advocate popular culture, even though doing so is not optimal without financial constraints.

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Labor Market Institutions And The Incidence Of Payroll Taxation, Jinyoung Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh May 2022

Labor Market Institutions And The Incidence Of Payroll Taxation, Jinyoung Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Despite the unambiguous predictions of the canonical model of a competitive labor market, empirical studies of the labor market effects of payroll taxation provide conflicting evidence. We estimate the labor market impacts of payroll taxation in Singapore, the country with the most competitive and flexible labor market among the countries investigated in the literature. By exploiting the sharp reduction in payroll tax rate when workers turn 60, we find that the reduced payroll tax rate in Singapore has a large effect on wages without changes in employment. Our meta-analysis shows consistent evidence that varying degrees of labor market competitiveness across …

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Probabilistic Fixed Ballot Rules And Hybrid Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Souvik Roy, Soumyarup Sadhukhan, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng May 2022

Probabilistic Fixed Ballot Rules And Hybrid Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Souvik Roy, Soumyarup Sadhukhan, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study a class of preference domains that satisfies the familiar properties of minimal richness, diversity and no-restoration. We show that a specific preference restriction, hybridness, has been embedded in these domains so that the preferences are single-peaked at the “extremes” and unrestricted in the “middle”. We also study the structure of strategy-proof and unanimous Random Social Choice Functions on these domains. We show them to be special cases of probabilistic fixed ballot rules (introduced by Ehlers, Peters, and Storcken (2002)).

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Variation And Efficiency Of High-Frequency Betas, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen May 2022

Variation And Efficiency Of High-Frequency Betas, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the efficient estimation of betas from high-frequency return data on a fixed time interval. Under an assumption of equal diffusive and jump betas, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for estimating the common beta and develop an adaptive estimator that attains the efficiency bound. We further propose a Hausman type test for deciding whether the common beta assumption is true from the high-frequency data. In our empirical analysis we provide examples of stocks and time periods for which a common market beta assumption appears true and ones for which this is not the case. We further quantify …

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Labor Market Participation, Income Distribution, And Welfare Gains From Trade, Pao-Li Chang, Yi-Fan Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu May 2022

Labor Market Participation, Income Distribution, And Welfare Gains From Trade, Pao-Li Chang, Yi-Fan Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a general equilibrium trade model where households with skill heterogeneity choose between home production and working on the labor market. Unlike most of the trade literature, the labor supply is elastic and is heterogeneous across households. As a result, trade affects labor participation, income, and welfare differently across households. We show that, when market goods and home goods are substitutes, households with lower skill levels expe-rience higher proportional increase to their income, while households with higher skill levels experience higher proportional increase in welfare. We further show that elastic labor supply preserves the extensive margin of welfare gains …

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Housing Wealth Shocks, Home Equity Withdrawal, And The Claiming Of Social Security Retirement Benefits, Naqun Huang, Li Jing, Amanda Ross Apr 2022

Housing Wealth Shocks, Home Equity Withdrawal, And The Claiming Of Social Security Retirement Benefits, Naqun Huang, Li Jing, Amanda Ross

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the impact of changes in house prices on when eligible individuals start receiving Social Security benefits. If house prices increase, financially constrained households may draw upon the additional home equity to finance expenses and delay receipt of Social Security in order to have increased lifetime monthly benefits. To address concerns that house price changes are correlated with unobserved local demand shocks, we use a control function approach and employ two different instrumental variables. We find that individuals delay Social Security claiming when house prices increase during the housing boom. The probability of claiming within two years after …

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The Grid Bootstrap For Continuous Time Models, Yiu Lim Lui, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu Apr 2022

The Grid Bootstrap For Continuous Time Models, Yiu Lim Lui, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes the new grid bootstrap to construct confidence intervals (CI) for the persistence parameter in a class of continuous-time models. It is different from the standard grid bootstrap of Hansen in dealing with the initial condition. The asymptotic validity of the CI is discussed under the in-fill scheme. The modified grid bootstrap leads to uniform inferences on the persistence parameter. Its improvement over in-fill asymptotics is achieved by expanding the coefficient-based statistic around its in-fill asymptotic distribution that is non-pivotal and depends on the initial condition. Monte Carlo studies show that the modified grid bootstrap performs better than …

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The Effects Of The Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate On Parents’ Labor Market Outcomes, Kim, Koh Kanghyock Apr 2022

The Effects Of The Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate On Parents’ Labor Market Outcomes, Kim, Koh Kanghyock

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the labor market impacts of the Affordable Care Act dependent mandate (ACA-DM), which has significantly increased dependent children's health insurance coverage through parents’ employer-sponsored health benefits. Using data from the American Community Survey, we find that the ACA-DM reduced parents’ annual wages by about $2,600. However, the probability of employment and working hours only decreased marginally. The back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that the magnitude of the estimated wage impact is similar to the increased insurance premium of a family plan due to the ACA-DM. These findings imply that a deadweight loss associated with the expansion of dependent health coverage …

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The Gatt/Wto Welfare Effects: 1950–2015, Pao-Li Chang, Wei Jin, Kefang Yao Apr 2022

The Gatt/Wto Welfare Effects: 1950–2015, Pao-Li Chang, Wei Jin, Kefang Yao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the welfare effects of GATT/WTO-induced reductions in tariffs, vari-able and fixed trade costs, based on identified direct effects of membership indicators on trade flows via nonparametric matching estimations. The identification does not require the use of tariff data, which permits a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO for a long panel since its inception (1950–2015) of as many as 180 economies. The results indicate substantial (but highly dispersed) welfare gains across members of different development stages and increasing welfare losses of nonmembers in later decades by staying outside the system. An extensive set of robustness …

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Forced Moves And Home Maintenance: The Amplifying Effects Of Mortgage Payment Burden On Underwater Homeowners, John Harding, Li Jing, Stuart Rosenthal, Xirui Zhang Mar 2022

Forced Moves And Home Maintenance: The Amplifying Effects Of Mortgage Payment Burden On Underwater Homeowners, John Harding, Li Jing, Stuart Rosenthal, Xirui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Although the adverse effect of high loan to value ratios (LTV) on mortgage default is known, the potential amplifying effect of high payment-to-income (PTI) ratios that can force families out of their homes has received limited attention. High PTI and LTV can also add to default costs by discouraging home maintenance. Using the 1985-2013 AHS panel, we show that high PTI prompts families to move and especially so for households with LTV above 120%. This lends support for policies like HAMP and HARP that seek to reduce forced moves and mortgage default by lowering mortgage payment burden for financially stressed …

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A Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Tao Zeng, Jun Yu Mar 2022

A Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Tao Zeng, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new Wald-type statistic is proposed for hypothesis testing based on Bayesian posterior distributions under the correct model specification. The new statistic can be explained as a posterior version of the Wald statistic and has several nice properties. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffreys–Lindley–Bartlett’s paradox. Third, under the null hypothesis and repeated sampling, it follows a χ2" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size: 16.2px; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; position: relative;">χ2 …

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Correlation-Robust Auction Design, Wei He, Jiangtao Li Mar 2022

Correlation-Robust Auction Design, Wei He, Jiangtao Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the design of auctions when the auctioneer has limited statistical information about the joint distribution of the bidders' valuations. More specifically, we consider an auctioneer who has an estimate of the marginal distribution of a generic bidder's valuation but does not have reliable information about the correlation structure. We analyze the performance of mechanisms in terms of the revenue guarantee, that is, the greatest lower bound of revenue across all joint distributions that are consistent with the marginals. A simple auction format, the second-price auction with no reserve price, is shown to be asymptotically optimal, as the number …

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Occupation Density Estimation For Noisy High-Frequency Data, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Tim Bollerslev Mar 2022

Occupation Density Estimation For Noisy High-Frequency Data, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Tim Bollerslev

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of occupation densities for semimartingale processes observed with noise. As leading examples we consider the stochastic volatility of a latent efficient price process, the volatility of the latent noise that separates the efficient price from the actually observed price, and nonlinear transformations of these processes. Our estimation methods are decidedly nonparametric and consist of two steps: the estimation of the spot price and noise volatility processes based on pre-averaging techniques and in-fill asymptotic arguments, followed by a kernel-type estimation of the occupation densities. Our spot volatility estimates attain the optimal rate of convergence, and …

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Conditional Superior Predictive Ability, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Rogier Quaedvlieg Mar 2022

Conditional Superior Predictive Ability, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Rogier Quaedvlieg

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: under the null hypothesis, the benchmark’s conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testing conditional moment inequalities for time series data with general serial dependence, and we justify its asymptotic validity using a uniform non-parametric inference method …

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Bank, Stock Market Efficiency And Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Countries, Swee Liang Tan Mar 2022

Bank, Stock Market Efficiency And Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Countries, Swee Liang Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper estimates bank and stock market efficiency associations with real per capita GDP growth by examining panel-data across three different regions using Beck-Katz Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) regression. It allows heteroskedastic and/or contemporaneously correlated disturbances across panels, with to specify a common first-order autocorrelation within the panel. The results suggest efficiency effects on growth is not unambiguous. The results suggest a threshold beyond which increase in bank overhead cost hurts economic growth, for developing countries. Likewise, there is a threshold beyond which increase in stock market turnover ratio hurts economic growth, for developed countries. One policy implication of the …

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Assessing Gender Parity In Intrahousehold Allocation Of Educational Resources: Evidence From Bangladesh, Sijia Xu, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii Mar 2022

Assessing Gender Parity In Intrahousehold Allocation Of Educational Resources: Evidence From Bangladesh, Sijia Xu, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Gender parity in education—an important global development goal—has been primarily measured through school enrollment, and the gender parity in education quality has received limited attention until recently. We address this issue by highlighting the intrahousehold allocation of education expenditure. We extend the hurdle model into a three-part model to enable decomposition of households’ education decisions into enrollment, total education expenditure, and share of the total education expenditure on the core component, or items relating to the quality of education such as private tutoring. We apply this model to four rounds of nationally representative household surveys from Bangladesh, a country that …

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The Effects Of Physician Retirement On Patient Outcomes: Anticipation And Disruption, Xuan Zhang Mar 2022

The Effects Of Physician Retirement On Patient Outcomes: Anticipation And Disruption, Xuan Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The physician retirement rate in the United States is increasing as the population ages. I use an event study model allowing for anticipation to evaluate the effects of primary care physician (PCP) retirement on elderly adults’ health care utilization and quality of care. I find that, despite moderate anticipatory effects, PCP retirement results in an approximately $572 increase in total Medicare costs per beneficiary in the first 1.5 years post-retirement and an over 10% increase in detection of new chronic conditions. Heterogeneity analyses show that the increase in costs is disproportionately driven by the retirement of solo practitioners; Medicare beneficiaries …

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Short-Term Impact Of Covid-19 On Consumption Spending And Its Underlying Mechanisms: Evidence From Singapore, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Xuan Zhang Feb 2022

Short-Term Impact Of Covid-19 On Consumption Spending And Its Underlying Mechanisms: Evidence From Singapore, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Xuan Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the short-term impact of COVID-19 on consumption spending and labor market outcomes. Using monthly panel data of individuals mainly aged 50–70 in Singapore, we find that COVID-19 reduced consumption spending and labor market outcomes immediately after its outbreak, and its negative impact quickly evolved. At its peak, the pandemic reduced total household consumption spending by 22.8% and labor income by 5.9% in April. Probability of full-time work also went down by 1.2 pp and 6.0 pp in April and May, respectively, but employment and self-employment were only mildly affected. Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that the reduction in consumption …

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Domains For Well Behaved Monotonic Social Choice Functions, Salles Paulo Daniel Ramos Feb 2022

Domains For Well Behaved Monotonic Social Choice Functions, Salles Paulo Daniel Ramos

Research Collection School Of Economics

We present here a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for an MD-Connected Domain to support a Well Behaved Monotonic Social Choice Function. We require the domain to have a minimal number of preferences in which a pair of alternatives flips their relation, and these reversals must occurr in accordance to a tree graph. While this condition cannot be sum-marized by a set of restrictions on individual preferences, we provide two alternative characterizations that can, one that is necessary and another that is sufficient.

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A Panel Clustering Approach To Analyzing Bubble Behavior, Yanbo Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Feb 2022

A Panel Clustering Approach To Analyzing Bubble Behavior, Yanbo Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study provides new mechanisms for identifying and estimating explosive bubbles in mixed-root panel autoregressions with a latent group structure. A post-clustering approach is employed that combines a recursive k-means clustering al-gorithm with panel-data test statistics for testing the presence of explosive roots in time series trajectories. Uniform consistency of the k-means clustering algorithm is established, showing that the post-clustering estimate is asymptotically equivalent to the oracle counterpart that uses the true group identities. Based on the estimated group membership, right-tailed self-normalized t-tests and coefficient-based J-tests, each with pivotal limit distributions, are introduced to detect the explosive roots. The usual …

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Subjective Wellbeing And Intergenerational Mobility Of Youths In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Solomon Soh Feb 2022

Subjective Wellbeing And Intergenerational Mobility Of Youths In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Solomon Soh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore has been enjoying persistently high real growth rates for the past 6 decades. On average, real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown from S$5603 in 1961 to S$88991 in 2019 with an average annual real per capita growth rate of 4.88%. The mean number of years of schooling for residents aged 25 and over has increased from 3.1 (Barro & Lee, 2001) in 1960 to 11.2 in 2019 while the life expectancy at birth for residents has also increased from 62.9 years in 1960 to 83.6 in 2019 (Department of Statistics, 2019). Although these figures reflect trneds …

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Heterogeneous Health Effects Of Medical Marijuana Legalization: Evidence From Young Adults In The United States, Junxing Chay, Seonghoon Kim Feb 2022

Heterogeneous Health Effects Of Medical Marijuana Legalization: Evidence From Young Adults In The United States, Junxing Chay, Seonghoon Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Legalizing marijuana for medical purposes is a longstanding debate. However, evidence of marijuana's health effects is limited, especially for young adults. We estimate the health impacts of medical marijuana laws (MML) in the U.S. among young adults aged 18–29 years using the difference-in-differences method and data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System. We find that having MMLs with strict regulations generate health gains, but not in states with lax regulations. Our heterogeneity analysis results indicate that individuals with lower education attainments, with lower household income and without access to health insurance coverage gain more health benefits from MML with …

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Nonignorable Missing Data, Single Index Propensity Score And Profile Synthetic Distribution Function, Xuerong Chen, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin Feb 2022

Nonignorable Missing Data, Single Index Propensity Score And Profile Synthetic Distribution Function, Xuerong Chen, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

In missing data problems, missing not at random is difficult to handle since the response probability or propensity score is confounded with the outcome data model in the likelihood. Existing works often assume the propensity score is known up to a finite dimensional parameter. We relax this assumption and consider an unspecified single index model for the propensity score. A pseudo-likelihood based on the complete data is constructed by profiling out a synthetic distribution function that involves the unknown propensity score. The pseudo-likelihood gives asymptotically normal estimates. Simulations show the method compares favorably with existing methods.

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Permutation-Based Tests For Discontinuities In Event Studies, Federico Bugni, Jia Li Jan 2022

Permutation-Based Tests For Discontinuities In Event Studies, Federico Bugni, Jia Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time-series data. The test statistic measures the distance between the empirical distribution functions of observed data in two local subsamples on the two sides of the cutoff. Critical values are computed via a standard permutation algorithm. Under a high-level condition that the observed data can be coupled by a collection of conditionally independent variables, we establish the asymptotic validity of the permutation test, allowing …

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Jue Insight: Migration, Transportation Infrastructure, And The Spatial Transmission Of Covid-19 In China, Bingjing Li, Lin Ma Jan 2022

Jue Insight: Migration, Transportation Infrastructure, And The Spatial Transmission Of Covid-19 In China, Bingjing Li, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the impacts of migration flows and transportation infrastructure on the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China. Prefectures with larger bilateral migration flows and shorter travel distances with Hubei, the epicenter of the outbreak, experienced a wider spread of COVID-19. In addition, richer prefectures with higher incomes were better able to contain the virus at the early stages of community transmission. Using a spatial general equilibrium model, we show that around 28% of the infections outside Hubei province can be explained by the rapid development in transportation infrastructure and the liberalization of migration restrictions in the recent decade.

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Rethinking The Role Of Employment Barriers In Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence From A Fixed Effects Analysis, Jian Qi Tan, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho Jan 2022

Rethinking The Role Of Employment Barriers In Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence From A Fixed Effects Analysis, Jian Qi Tan, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using a panel dataset from a five-wave survey of participants in Singapore’s Work Support Programme (WSP) from 2010 to 2016, we quantify the cumulative negative impact of facing multiple employment barriers and demonstrate the association between the individual stressors and labor market indicators. Using a fixed effects model to reduce the confounding effects of unobservables, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the number of employment barriers brings about a 2.7 to 3.5 percentage point increase in the probability of being unemployed and a 58 SGD to 78 SGD decrease in individual earnings.

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Does A District Mandate Matter For The Behavior Of Politicians? An Analysis Of Roll-Call Votes And Parliamentary Speeches, Andreas Born, Aljoscha Janssen Jan 2022

Does A District Mandate Matter For The Behavior Of Politicians? An Analysis Of Roll-Call Votes And Parliamentary Speeches, Andreas Born, Aljoscha Janssen

Research Collection School Of Economics

In most democracies, members of parliament (MPs) are elected either through a party list or by a district. We use a discontinuity in the German electoral system to investigate the causal effect of a district election on an MP’s conformity with the party line. A district election does not affect roll-call voting behavior causally, possibly due to overall high adherence to party-line voting. Analyzing the parliamentary speeches of each MP allows us to overcome the high party-line discipline with regard to parliamentary voting. Using textual analysis and machine learning techniques, we create two measures of closeness of an MP’s speeches …

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Sustainable Strategies For Mass Rapid Transit Ppps, Sock Yong Phang, Bin Chye Tan Jan 2022

Sustainable Strategies For Mass Rapid Transit Ppps, Sock Yong Phang, Bin Chye Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Mass rapid transit (MRT) PPPs have proliferated in the past two decades. This chapter provides a framework to categorise and understand alternative PPP designs. As MRT systems are inherently large, unprofitable and risky projects, PPP design is critical to project success and sustainability. We study the experiences of MRT PPPs in London, Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing to understand factors underlying success and failure and to arrive at policy recommendations for PPPs. Policymakers need to have additional governance improvement and risk mitigation measures in place when tied supply chains are utilised. Hong Kong’s experience illustrates that ‘Rail plus Property’ strategy …

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Reading The Candlesticks: An Ok Estimator For Volatility, Jia Li, Dishen Wang, Qiushi. Zhang Jan 2022

Reading The Candlesticks: An Ok Estimator For Volatility, Jia Li, Dishen Wang, Qiushi. Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Academic research on nonparametric “spot” volatility inference often relies on high-quality transaction data that are not available to an average investor. Most investors, however, have free access to intraday candlestick charts through their online trading applications. Based on such data, we propose an Optimal candlesticK (OK) estimator for the spot volatility at a given time point. Under a standard infill asymptotic setting for Itˆo semimartingale price process, we show that the OK estimator is asymptotically unbiased and has minimal asymptotic variance within a class of linear estimators. In addition, its estimation error can be coupled by a Brownian functional, whose …

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