Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Yale University

Series

Discipline
Keyword
Publication Year
Publication

Articles 31 - 60 of 3033

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su, Yiren Wang Jun 2023

Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su, Yiren Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers a linear panel model with interactive fixed effects and unobserved individual and time heterogeneities that are captured by some latent group structures and an unknown structural break, respectively. To enhance realism the model may have different numbers of groups and/or different group memberships before and after the break. With the preliminary nuclear-norm-regularized estimation followed by row- and column-wise linear regressions, we estimate the break point based on the idea of binary segmentation and the latent group structures together with the number of groups before and after the break by sequential testing K-means algorithm simultaneously. It is shown …

Go to article

Formalizing Dispute Resolution: Effects Of Village Courts In Bangladesh, Martin Mattsson, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak Jun 2023

Formalizing Dispute Resolution: Effects Of Village Courts In Bangladesh, Martin Mattsson, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

Disagreements over business deals, land boundaries, or loan non-repayment are very common sources of disputes, and courts are congested in developing countries. We evaluate the effects of the government introducing formal “village courts” (VCs) in rural Bangladesh using a randomized controlled trial with a pre-analysis plan. VCs were designed to improve dispute resolution and relieve the pressure on congested district courts. We find that VCs are more of a substitute for the ubiquitous informal dispute resolution mechanism (DRM) called shalish. VCs become functional and active in treated areas, but shalish remains the primary preferred DRM in both treatment and …

Go to article

New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang Jun 2023

New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to …

Go to article

Demand Estimation With Infrequent Purchases And Small Market Sizes, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams Jun 2023

Demand Estimation With Infrequent Purchases And Small Market Sizes, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a demand estimation method that allows for a large number of zero sale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving consumers solves a standard discrete choice problem. We present a Bayesian IV estimation approach that addresses sampling error in product shares and scales well to rich data environments. The data requirements are traditional market-level data as well as a measure of market sizes or consumer arrivals. After presenting simulation studies, we demonstrate the method in an empirical application of air travel demand.

Go to article

Organizational Structure And Pricing: Evidence From A Large U.S. Airline, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams Jun 2023

Organizational Structure And Pricing: Evidence From A Large U.S. Airline, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Firms facing complex objectives often decompose the problems they face, delegating different parts of the decision to distinct sub-units. Using comprehen-sive data and internal models from a large U.S. airline, we establish that airline pricing is not well approximated by a model of the firm as a unitary decision-maker. We show that observed prices, however, can be rationalized by account-ing for organizational structure and the decisions by departments that are tasked with supplying inputs to the observed pricing heuristic. Simulating the prices the firm would charge if it were a rational unitary decision-maker results in lower welfare than we estimate …

Go to article

Rational Dialogues, John Geanakoplos, Heracles M. Polemarchakis May 2023

Rational Dialogues, John Geanakoplos, Heracles M. Polemarchakis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Any finite conversation can be rationalized.

Go to article

The People And The Experts: Alternative Views On Economic Affairs, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers May 2023

The People And The Experts: Alternative Views On Economic Affairs, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Are speculators driving up oil prices? Should we raise energy prices to slow global warming? The present study takes a small number of such questions and compares the views of economic experts with those of the public. This comparison uses a panel of 2000+ respondents from YouGov with the views of the panel of experts from the IGM at the Chicago Booth School. We found that most of the US population is at best modestly informed about major economic questions and policies. The low level of knowledge is generally associated with the intrusion of ideological, political, and religious views that …

Go to article

Powering Up: Examining Frameworks For Community Engagement And Collective Tenant Action Around Energy Efficiency In New Haven, Ct, Alixandra P. Rachman May 2023

Powering Up: Examining Frameworks For Community Engagement And Collective Tenant Action Around Energy Efficiency In New Haven, Ct, Alixandra P. Rachman

Academic Articles

Energy is an essential household need to sustain health and wellbeing. Connecticut has one of the highest energy costs in the nation and leaves a majority of residents experiencing energy insecurity, where households are not able to meet their energy needs. Energy efficiency retrofits have been introduced as an effective solution to sustain thermal comfort indoors. Despite increased funding and resources for energy efficiency, federal and state programs continue to go widely unused by tenants for several reasons from health and safety barriers, tenant-landlord power imbalances, and administrative challenges to name a few. This thesis aims to describe Connecticut’s energy …

Go to article

Affective Interdependence And Welfare, Aviad Heifetz, Enrico Minelli, Heracles M. Polemarchakis Apr 2023

Affective Interdependence And Welfare, Aviad Heifetz, Enrico Minelli, Heracles M. Polemarchakis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Purely affective interaction allows the welfare of an individual to depend on her own actions and on the profile of welfare levels of others. Under an assumption on the structure of mutual affection that we interpret as “non-explosive mutual affection,” we show that equilibria of simultaneous-move affective interaction are Pareto optimal independently of whether or not an induced standard game exists. Moreover, if purely affective interaction in-duces a standard game, then an equilibrium profile of actions is a Nash equilibrium of the game, and this Nash equilibrium and Pareto optimal profile of strategies is locally dominant.

Go to article

Managed Campaigns And Data-Augmented Auctions For Digital Advertising, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti, Nicholas Wu Apr 2023

Managed Campaigns And Data-Augmented Auctions For Digital Advertising, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti, Nicholas Wu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We develop an auction model for digital advertising. A monopoly platform has access to data on the value of the match between advertisers and consumers. The platform support bidding with additional information and increase the feasible surplus for on-platform matches. Advertisers jointly determine their pricing strategy both on and off the platform, as well as their bidding for digital advertising on the platform. We compare a data-augmented second-price auction and a managed campaign mechanism. In the data-augmented auction, the bids by the advertisers are informed by the data of the platform regarding the value of the match. This results in …

Go to article

Data, Competition, And Digital Platforms, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti Apr 2023

Data, Competition, And Digital Platforms, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze digital markets where a monopolist platform uses data to match multiproduct sellers with heterogeneous consumers who can purchase both on and o§ the platform. The platform sells targeted ads to sellers that recommend their products to consumers and reveals information to consumers about their values. The revenueoptimal mechanism is a managed advertising campaign that matches products and preferences e¢ ciently. In equilibrium, sellers o§er higher qualities at lower unit prices on than o§ the platform. Privacy-respecting data-governance rules such as organic search results or federated learning can lead to welfare gains for consumers.

Go to article

Dynamic Price Competition: Theory And Evidence From Airline Markets, Jose M. Betancourt, Ali Hortaçsu, Aniko Öry (Oery), Kevin R. Williams Apr 2023

Dynamic Price Competition: Theory And Evidence From Airline Markets, Jose M. Betancourt, Ali Hortaçsu, Aniko Öry (Oery), Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We introduce a model of dynamic pricing in perishable goods markets with competition and provide conditions for equilibrium uniqueness. Pricing dynamics are rich because both own and competitor scarcity affect future profits. We identify new competitive forces that can lead to misallocation due to selling units too quickly: the Bertrand scarcity trap. We empirically estimate our model using daily prices and bookings for competing U.S. airlines. We compare competitive equilibrium outcomes to those where firms use pricing heuristics based on observed internal pricing rules at a large airline. We find that pricing heuristics increase revenues (4-5%) and consumer surplus (3%).

Go to article

Growing Like India. The Unequal Effects Of Service Lead Growth., Tianyu Fan, Michael Peters, Fabrizio Zilibotti Mar 2023

Growing Like India. The Unequal Effects Of Service Lead Growth., Tianyu Fan, Michael Peters, Fabrizio Zilibotti

Discussion Papers

Structural transformation in most currently developing countries takes the form of a rapid rise in services but limited industrialization. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to structurally estimate productivity growth in service industries that circumvents the notorious difficulties in measuring quality improvements. In our theory, the expansion of the service sector is both a consequence—due to income effects—and a cause— due to productivity growth— of the development process. We estimate the model using Indian household data. We find that productivity growth in non-tradable consumer services such as retail, restaurants, or residential real estate, was an important driver of …

Go to article

Greater New Haven Community Wellbeing Index 2023, Mark Abraham, Camille Seaberry, Kelly Davila, Andrew Carr Mar 2023

Greater New Haven Community Wellbeing Index 2023, Mark Abraham, Camille Seaberry, Kelly Davila, Andrew Carr

Reports

No abstract provided.

Go to article

Incorporating Sales And Arrivals Information In Demand Estimation, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams Mar 2023

Incorporating Sales And Arrivals Information In Demand Estimation, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a demand estimation method that allows for a large number of zero sale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving con-sumers solves a standard discrete choice problem. We present a Bayesian IV estima-tion approach that addresses sampling error in product shares and scales well to rich data environments. The data requirements are traditional market-level data as well as a measure of market sizes or consumer arrivals. After presenting simulation studies, we demonstrate the method in an empirical application of air travel demand.

Go to article

Policies, Projections, And The Social Cost Of Carbon: Results From The Dice-2023 Model, Lint Barrage, William D. Nordhaus Feb 2023

Policies, Projections, And The Social Cost Of Carbon: Results From The Dice-2023 Model, Lint Barrage, William D. Nordhaus

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The present study examines the assumptions, modeling structure, and preliminary results of DICE-2023, the revised Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), updated to 2023. The revision contains major changes in the carbon and climate modules, the treatment of non-industrial greenhouse gases, discount rates, as well as updates on all the major components. The major changes are a significant reduction in the target for the optimal (cost-beneficial) temperature path, a lower cost of reaching the 2 °C target, an analysis of the impact of the Paris Accord, and a major increase in the estimated social cost of carbon.

Go to article

The Effect Of Education Policy On Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective, Costas Meghir, Marten Palme, Marieke Schnabel Feb 2023

The Effect Of Education Policy On Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective, Costas Meghir, Marten Palme, Marieke Schnabel

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the intergenerational effect of education policy on crime. We use Swedish administrative data that links outcomes across generations with crime records and we show that the comprehensive school reform, gradually implemented between 1949 and 1962, reduced conviction rates both for the generation directly affected by the reform and for their sons. The reduction in conviction rates occurred across many types of crime. Key mediators for this reduction in the child generation are an increase in education and a decline in crime amongst their fathers.

Go to article

When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery) Feb 2023

When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The propensity of consumers to talk after a good versus bad experience with a product can differ based on information available from other marketing channels, for example the brand image or advertising. This can result in selection of positive/negative word-of-mouth for reasons outside of product quality. We develop a unifying framework of WOM, brand image, product advertising, and pricing with a focus on the instrumentality motive of word-of-mouth: early adopters talk to inform new buyers’ purchasing decisions. The different marketing channels shape the information sharing behavior of the early adopter as well as the target consumer’s purchase decision. We show …

Go to article

The Optimality Of Constant Mark-Up Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, Stephen Morris Jan 2023

The Optimality Of Constant Mark-Up Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider a nonlinear pricing environment with private information. We provide profit guarantees (and associated mechanisms) that the seller can achieve across all possible distributions of willingness to pay of the buyers. With a constant elasticity cost function, constant markup pricing provides the optimal revenue guarantee across all possible distributions of willingness to pay and the lower bound is attained under a Pareto distribution. We characterize how profits and consumer surplus vary with the distribution of values and show that Pareto distributions are extremal. We also provide a revenue guarantee for general cost functions.We establish equivalent results for optimal procurement …

Go to article

Social And Financial Incentives For Overcoming A Collective Action Problem, M. Mehrab Bakhtiar, Raymond Guiteras, James Levinsohn, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak Jan 2023

Social And Financial Incentives For Overcoming A Collective Action Problem, M. Mehrab Bakhtiar, Raymond Guiteras, James Levinsohn, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

Addressing public health externalities often requires community-level collective action. Each person’s sanitation behavior can affect the health of neighbors. We report on a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted with 19,000 households in rural Bangladesh where we randomized (1) either group financial incentives or a non-financial “social recognition” reward, and (2) asking each household to make either a private pledge or a public pledge to maintain hygienic latrines. The group financial reward has the strongest impact in the short term (3 months), inducing a 7.5-12.5 percentage point increase in hygienic latrine ownership. Getting people to publicly commit to maintaining and using …

Go to article

Extreme Points Of First-Order Stochastic Dominance Intervals: Theory And Applications, Kai Hao Yang, Alexander K. Zentefis Jan 2023

Extreme Points Of First-Order Stochastic Dominance Intervals: Theory And Applications, Kai Hao Yang, Alexander K. Zentefis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We characterize the extreme points of first-order stochastic dominance (FOSD) intervals and show how these intervals are at the heart of many topics in economics. Using knowledge of these extreme points, we characterize the distributions of posterior quantiles under a given prior, leading to an analogue of a classical result regarding the distribution of posterior means. We apply this analogue to various economic subjects, including the psychology of judgement, political economy, and Bayesian persuasion. In addition, FOSD intervals provide a common structure to security design. We use the extreme points to unify and generalize seminal results in that literature when …

Go to article

Influence Or Advertise: The Role Of Social Learning In Influencer Marketing, Ron Berman, Aniko Öry (Oery), Xudong Zheng Jan 2023

Influence Or Advertise: The Role Of Social Learning In Influencer Marketing, Ron Berman, Aniko Öry (Oery), Xudong Zheng

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We compare influencer marketing to targeted advertising from information aggregation and product awareness perspectives. Influencer marketing leverages network effects by allowing consumers to socially learn from each other about their experienced content utility, but consumers may not know whether to attribute promotional post popularity to high content or high product quality. If the quality of a product is uncertain (e.g., it belongs to an unknown brand), then a mega influencer with consistent content quality fosters more information aggregation than a targeted ad and thereby yields higher profits. When we compare influencer marketing to untargeted ad campaigns or if the product …

Go to article

Collections Amplifying Diverse Voices, Dom M. Bortruex Jan 2023

Collections Amplifying Diverse Voices, Dom M. Bortruex

Library Staff Publications

This article explores the creation, implementation, and maintenance of American University Library's Collections Amplifying Diverse Voices.

Go to article

Nonparametric Identification Of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data, Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile Jan 2023

Nonparametric Identification Of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data, Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We examine identification of differentiated products demand when one has “micro data” linking the characteristics and choices of individual consumers. Our model nests standard specifications featuring rich observed and unobserved consumer heterogeneity as well as product/market-level unobservables that introduce the problem of econometric endogeneity. Previous work establishes identification of such models using marketlevel data and instruments for all prices and quantities. Micro data provides a panel structure that facilitates richer demand specifications and reduces requirements on both the number and types of instrumental variables. We address identification of demand in the standard case in which non-price product characteristics are assumed …

Go to article

Misinterpreting Yourself, Paul Heidhues, Botond Koszegi, Philipp Strack Jan 2023

Misinterpreting Yourself, Paul Heidhues, Botond Koszegi, Philipp Strack

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We model an agent who stubbornly underestimates how much his behavior is driven by undesirable motives, and, attributing his behavior to other considerations, updates his views about those considerations. We study general properties of the model, and then apply the framework to identify novel implications of partially naive present bias. In many stable situations, the agent appears realistic in that he eventually predicts his behavior well. His unrealistic self-view does, however, manifest itself in several other ways. First, in basic settings he always comes to act in a more present-biased manner than a sophisticated agent. Second, he systematically mispredicts how …

Go to article

Organizational Structure And Pricing: Evidence From A Large U.S. Airline, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams Jan 2023

Organizational Structure And Pricing: Evidence From A Large U.S. Airline, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Firms facing complex objectives often decompose the problems they face, delegating different parts of the decision to distinct subordinates. Using comprehensive data and internal models from a large U.S. airline, we establish that airline pricing is inconsistent with canonical dynamic pricing models. However, we show that observed prices can be rationalized as an equilibrium of a game played by departments who each have decision rights for different inputs that are supplied to the observed pricing heuristic. Incorrectly assuming that the firm solves a standard profit maximization problem as a single entity understates overall welfare actually achieved but affects business and …

Go to article

Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yugei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips Dec 2022

Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yugei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Considerable evidence in past research shows size distortion in standard tests for zero autocorrelation or cross-correlation when time series are not independent identically distributed random variables, pointing to the need for more robust procedures. Recent tests for serial correlation and cross-correlation in Dalla, Giraitis, and Phillips (2022) provide a more robust approach, allowing for heteroskedasticity and dependence in un-correlated data under restrictions that require a smooth, slowly-evolving deterministic heteroskedasticity process. The present work removes those restrictions and validates the robust testing methodology for a wider class of heteroskedastic time series models and innovations. The updated analysis given here enables more …

Go to article

Heterogeneous Paths Of Industrialization, Federico Huneeus, Richard Rogerson Dec 2022

Heterogeneous Paths Of Industrialization, Federico Huneeus, Richard Rogerson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Industrialization experiences differ substantially across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization. Our analysis leads to three key findings. First, benchmark models of structural change robustly generate hump-shaped patterns for the evolution of the industrial sector. Second, heterogeneous patterns of catch-up in sectoral productivities across countries can generate variation in industrialization experiences similar to those found in the data, including premature deindustrialization. Third, differences in the rate of agricultural productivity growth across economies can account for the majority of the variation …

Go to article

Marriage, Labor Supply And The Dynamics Of The Social Safety Net, Hamish Low, Costas Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena Dec 2022

Marriage, Labor Supply And The Dynamics Of The Social Safety Net, Hamish Low, Costas Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The 1996 US welfare reform introduced time limits on welfare receipt. We use quasi-experimental evidence and a lifecycle model of marriage, divorce, program participation, labor supply and savings to understand the impact of time limits on behavior and well-being. Time limits cause women to defer claiming in anticipation of future needs, an effect that depends on the probabilities of marriage and divorce. Time limits cost women 0.5% of life-time consumption, net of revenue savings redistributed by reduced taxation, with some groups affected much more. Expectations over future marital status are important determinants of the value of the social safety net.

Go to article

The Employment Effects Of Mobile Internet In Developing Countries, Gaurav Chiplunkar, Pinelopi K. Goldberg Nov 2022

The Employment Effects Of Mobile Internet In Developing Countries, Gaurav Chiplunkar, Pinelopi K. Goldberg

Discussion Papers

We examine the employment effects of 3G mobile internet expansion in developing countries. We find that 3G significantly increases the labor force participation rate of women and the employment rates of both men and women. Our results suggest that 3G affects the type of jobs and there is a distinct gender dimension to these effects. Men transition away from unpaid agricultural work into operating small agricultural enterprises, while women take more unpaid jobs, especially in agriculture, and operate more small businesses in all sectors. Both men and women are more likely to work in wage jobs in the service sector.

Go to article

First Prev Next Last