Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

When The Great Equalizer Shuts Down: Schools, Peers, And Parents In Pandemic Time, Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti, Fabrizio Zilibotti

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

What are the effects of school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic on children’s education? Online education is an imperfect substitute for in-person learning, particularly for children from low-income families. Peer effects also change: schools allow children from different socio-economic backgrounds to mix together, and this effect is lost when schools are closed. Another factor is the response of parents, some of whom compensate for the changed environment through their own efforts, while others are unable to do so. We examine the interaction of these factors with the aid of a structural model of skill formation. We find that school closures …

A Model Of Crisis Management, Fei Li, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a model of how multiple societies respond to a common crisis. A government faces a “damned-either-way” policy-making dilemma: aggressive intervention contains the crisis, but the resulting good outcome makes people skeptical of the costly response; light intervention worsens the crisis and causes the government to be faulted for not doing enough. This dilemma can be mitigated for the society that encounters the crisis first if another society faces the same crisis afterward. Our model predicts that the later society does not necessarily perform better despite having more information, while the earlier society might benefit from a dynamic counterfactual …

Cash Transfers As A Response To Covid-19: A Randomized Experiment In Kenya, Wyatt Brooks, Kevin Donovan, Terence Johnson, Jackline Oluoch-Aridi

Discussion Papers

We deliver an unconditional cash transfer equal to one month’s average profit to a randomly selected group of Kenyan female microenterprise owners in May 2020 at the outset of exponential growth in COVID-19 cases. Firm profit, inventory spending, and food expenditures increased relative to a control group. Entrepreneurs recovered about one third of the profit lost during the crisis. The transfers caused greater business activity by inducing previously closed businesses to re-open. PPE spending and precautionary management practices increase to mitigate this effect, but only among those who perceive major health risk from COVID-19. The results suggest cash transfers promoted …

A Model Of Sequential Crisis Management, Fei Li, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a model of how multiple societies respond to a common crisis. A government faces a "damned-either-way" policymaking dilemma: aggressive intervention contains the crisis, but the resulting good outcome makes people skeptical about the costly response; light intervention worsens the crisis and causes the government to be faulted for not doing enough. When multiple societies encounter the crisis sequentially, due to this policymaking dilemma, late societies may underperform despite having more information, while early societies can benefit from a dynamic counterfactual effect.

Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own The Data, Zhiguo He, Jing Huang, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Open banking facilitates data sharing consented by customers who generate the data, with a regulatory goal of promoting competition between traditional banks and challenger fintech entrants. We study lending market competition when sharing banks’ customer data enables better borrower screening or targeting by fintech lenders. Open banking could make the entire financial industry better off yet leave all borrowers worse off, even if borrowers could choose whether to share their data. We highlight the importance of equilibrium credit quality inference from borrowers’ endogenous sign-up decisions. When data sharing triggers privacy concerns by facilitating exploitative targeted loans, the equilibrium sign-up population …

Aggregate Implications Of Firm Heterogeneity: A Nonparametric Analysis Of Monopolistic Competition Trade Models, Rodrigo Adão, Costas Arkolakis, Sharat Ganapati

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We measure the role of firm heterogeneity in counterfactual predictions of monopolistic competition trade models without parametric restrictions on the distribution of firm fundamentals. We show that two bilateral elasticity functions are sufficient to nonparametrically compute the counterfactual aggregate impact of trade shocks, and recover changes in economic fundamentals from observed data. These functions are identified from two semiparametric gravity equations governing the impact of bilateral trade costs on the extensive and intensive margins of firm-level exports. Applying our methodology, we estimate elasticity functions that imply an impact of trade costs on trade flows that falls when more firms serve …

Mothers’ Social Networks And Socioeconomic Gradients Of Isolation, Alison Andrew, Orazio P. Attanasio, Britta Augsburg, Jere Behrman, Monimalika Day, Pamela Jervis, Costas Meghir, Angus Phimister

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Social connections are fundamental to human wellbeing. This paper examines the social networks of young married women in rural Odisha, India.. This is a group, for whom highly-gendered norms around marriage, mobility, and work are likely to shape opportunities to form and maintain meaningful ties with other women. We track the social networks of 2,170 mothers over four years, and find a high degree of isolation. Wealthier women and women more-advantaged castes have smaller social networks than their less-advantaged peers. These gradients are primarily driven by the fact that more-advantaged women are less likely to know other women within their …

Improved Information In Search Markets, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

How will an improved information environment affects competition and market performance when consumers face search frictions? This paper provides a unified way to model information improvement that makes the search pool more ``selective" (e.g., due to personalized recommendations), or more ``informative" (e.g., due to the availability of more detailed product information). Information improvement tends to induce consumers to search less, intensify price competition and benefit consumers, if the search friction is small, or if information improvement truncates the match utility distribution from below. More generally, however, it is also possible for information improvement to raise the market price and harm …

Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own The Data, Zhiguo He, Jing Huang, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Open banking facilitates data sharing consented to by customers who generate the data, with the regulatory goal of promoting competition between traditional banks and challenger fintech entrants. We study lending market competition when sharing banks’ customer transaction data enables better borrower screening. Open banking can make the entire financial industry better off yet leave all borrowers worse off, even if borrowers have the control of whether to share their banking data. We highlight the importance of the equilibrium credit quality inference from borrowers’ endogenous sign-up decisions. We also study extensions with fintech affinities and data sharing on borrower preferences.

Analysis Of Nine U.S. Recessions And Three Expansions, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous variables. The main exogenous variables are stock prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and exogenous government policy variables. Monetary policy is endogenous. Fluctuations in stock and housing prices (housing prices after 1995) are important drivers of output fluctuations—large wealth effects on household expenditures.

Analysis Of Nine U.S. Recessions And Three Expansions, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous variables. The main exogenous variables are stock prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and exogenous government policy variables. Monetary policy is endogenous. Fluctuations in stock and housing prices (housing prices after 1995) are important drivers of output fluctuations—large wealth effects on household expenditures. In explaining the 2008-2009 recession detailed financial variables such as credit-constraint variables are not …

Improved Information In Search Markets, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies how an improved information environment affects consumer search and firm competition. We find conditions for information improvement to have unambiguous impacts on search duration, price and consumer welfare. In many cases consumers benefit from information improvement regardless of how it affects the market price, but there are also cases where information improvement raises price significantly so that consumers suffer from it. Our model provides a unified way to consider the market implications of various types of information improvement such as search advertising, personalized recommendations, filtering, and VR shopping technology.

Forecasting Economic Activity Using The Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications For New Zealand, Australia And The Us, Todd Henry, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Inversion of the yield curve has come to be viewed as a leading recession indicator. Unsurprisingly, some recent instances of inversion have attracted attention from economic commentators and policymakers about possible impending recessions. Using a variety of time series models and recent innovations in econometric method, this paper conducts quasi-real-time forecasting exercises to investigate whether the predictive capability of the yield curve extends to forecasting economic activity in general and whether removing the term premium component from yields affects forecast accuracy. The empirical findings for the US, Australia, and New Zealand show that forecast performance is not improved either by …

Selling Consumer Data For Profit: Optimal Market-Segmentation Design And Its Consequences, Kai Hao Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A data broker sells market segmentations created by consumer data to a producer with private production cost who sells a product to a unit mass of consumers with heterogeneous values. In this setting, I completely characterize the revenue-maximizing mechanisms for the data broker. In particular, every optimal mechanism induces quasi-perfect price discrimination. That is, the data broker sells the producer a market segmentation described by a cost-dependent cutoff, such that all the consumers with values above the cutoff end up buying and paying their values while the rest of consumers do not buy. The characterization of optimal mechanisms leads to …

Notes On Extended Benefactives, Jim Wood, Shayley Martin

Yale Working Papers in Grammatical Diversity

Wood and Zanuttini (2018) have discussed data suggesting that low Appl(icative) phrases can occur as the complement of a preposition in some varieties of English. However, their claim was based on a limited data set that is potentially open to alternative analyses. This paper reports on judgment data collected by the second author of the present paper in January 2018 which go well beyond the examples discussed by Wood and Zanuttini (2018), and support their claim that a beneficiary and a DP can form a constituent inside a PP that excludes the PP and any verb it may be associated …

Support Services At Yale University For Teaching With Primary Sources: An Exploration Of Instructor Rationales And Needs, Melissa Grafe, David Hirsch, Bill Landis, Sara Powell

Library Staff Publications

Between October and December 2019, investigators participating in an Ithaka S+R study interviewed fifteen Yale instructors who teach with primary sources in humanities and humanities-leaning social science disciplines. The conversations focused on the interviewees’ background, training, and experience utilizing primary sources in their undergraduate teaching at Yale, as well as their pedagogical goals, strategies, successes and challenges, and perceived needs as practitioners of primary source-based instruction.

Interviewees were eloquent in articulating the wide variety of pedagogical goals that motivate their work to incorporate primary sources in all formats into their syllabi and teaching practice. Very few cited any formal training …

Identification And Inference In First-Price Auctions With Risk Averse Bidders And Selective Entry, Xiaohong Chen, Matthew Gentry, Tong Li, Jingfeng Lu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study identification and inference in first-price auctions with risk averse bidders and selective entry, building on a flexible entry and bidding framework we call the Affiliated Signal with Risk Aversion (AS-RA) model. Assuming that the econometrician observes either exogenous variation in the number of potential bidders (N) or a continuous instrument (z) shifting opportunity costs of entry, we provide a sharp characterization of the nonparametric restrictions implied by equilibrium bidding. Given variation in either competition or costs, this characterization implies that risk neutrality is nonparametrically testable in the sense that if bidders are strictly risk averse, then no risk …

Consistent Misspecification Testing In Spatial Autoregressive Models, Jungyoon Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Spatial autoregressive (SAR) and related models offer flexible yet parsimonious ways to model spatial or network interaction. SAR specifications typically rely on a particular parametric functional form and an exogenous choice of the so-called spatial weight matrix with only limited guidance from theory in making these specifications. The choice of a SAR model over other alternatives, such as spatial Durbin (SD) or spatial lagged X (SLX) models, is often arbitrary, raising issues of potential specification error. To address such issues, this paper develops an omnibus specification test within the SAR framework that can detect general forms of misspecification including that …

Optimally Stubborn, Anna Sanktjohanser

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

I consider a bargaining game with two types of players – rational and stubborn. Rational players choose demands at each point in time. Stubborn players are restricted to choose from the set of “insistent” strategies that always make the same demand and never accept anything less. However, their initial choice of demand is unrestricted. I characterize the equilibria of this game. I show that while pooling equilibria exist, fully separating equilibria do not. Relative to the case with exogenous behavioral types, strong behavioral predictions emerge: in the limit, players randomize over at most two demands. However, unlike in a world …

Migration And Informal Insurance, Costas Meghir, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Corina Mommaerts, Melanie Morten

Discussion Papers

Do new migration opportunities for rural households change the nature and extent of informal risk sharing? We experimentally document that randomly offering poor rural households subsidies to migrate leads to a 40% improvement in risk sharing in their villages. Our model of endogenous migration and risk sharing shows that risky and temporary migration opportunities can induce an improvement in risk sharing enabling profitable migration. Accounting for improved risk sharing, the migration experiment increased welfare by 12.9%. However, permanent declines in migration costs improve outside options for households and can lead to reductions in risk sharing. The short-run experimental results for …

Who Wants In On This Linguistic Analysis?, Lane Fischer

Yale Working Papers in Grammatical Diversity

This paper brings together previous research on the Midland English dialect region construction want + [intransitive preposition] heretofore referred to as the wants in phenomenon. I will build on past research of wants in and present its construction, background, sociolinguistic relevance and will then present further questions I have about the construction, my hypotheses on these questions, and results from my own intuitions as a speaker of the Midland dialect and a linguistic survey. With reference to a similar Midland construction, need + [past participle], I ultimately propose that although these two constructions share many of the same syntactic restrictions, …

When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The propensity of consumers to engage in word-of-mouth (WOM) differs after good versus bad experiences, which can result in positive or negative selection of user-generated reviews. We show how the dispersion of consumer beliefs about quality (brand strength), informativeness of good and bad experiences, and price can affect selection of WOM in equilibrium. WOM is costly: Early adopters talk only if they can affect the receiver’s purchase. Under homogeneous beliefs, only negative WOM can arise. Under heterogeneous beliefs, the type of WOM depends on the informativeness of the experiences. We use data from Yelp.com to validate our predictions.

When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The propensity of consumers to engage in word-of-mouth (WOM) can differ after good versus bad experiences. This can result in positive or negative selection of user-generated reviews. We show how the strength of brand image - determined by the dispersion of consumer beliefs about quality - and the informativeness of good and bad experiences impact the selection of WOM in equilibrium. Our premise is that WOM is costly: Early adopters talk only if their information is instrumental for the receiver’s purchase decision. If the brand image is strong, i.e., consumers have close to homogeneous beliefs about quality, then only negative …

Heterogeneous Paths Of Industrialization, Federico Huneeus, Richard Rogerson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Industrialization experiences differ significantly across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization. Our analysis leads to three key findings. First, benchmark models of structural change robustly generate hump-shaped patterns for the evolution of the manufacturing sector. Second, heterogeneous patterns of catch-up in sectoral productivities across countries can generate variation in industrialization experiences similar to those found in the data, including premature deindustrialization. Third, differences in the rate of agricultural productivity growth across economies can account for a large share of the …

Diagnosing Housing Fever With An Econometric Thermometer, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Housing fever is a popular term to describe an overheated housing market or housing price bubble. Like other financial asset bubbles, housing fever can inflict harm on the real economy, as indeed the US housing bubble did in the period following 2006 leading up to the general financial crisis and great recession. One contribution that econometricians can make to minimize the harm created by a housing bubble is to provide a quantitative `thermometer’ for diagnosing ongoing housing fever. Early diagnosis can enable prompt and effective policy action that reduces long term damage to the real economy. This paper provides a …

When Bias Contributes To Variance: True Limit Theory In Functional Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Limit distribution theory in the econometric literature for functional coefficient cointegrating (FCC) regression is shown to be incorrect in important ways, influencing rates of convergence, distributional properties, and practical work. In FCC regression the cointegrating coefficient vector \beta(.) is a function of a covariate z_t. The true limit distribution of the local level kernel estimator of \beta(.) is shown to have multiple forms, each form depending on the bandwidth rate in relation to the sample size n and with an optimal convergence rate of n^{3/4} which is achieved by letting the bandwidth have order 1/n^{1/2}.when z_t is scalar. Unlike stationary …

Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yichong Zhang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). We derive the limit distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs, highlighting the difficulties that arise in analytical inference due to parameter tuning. We show that the naïve weighted bootstrap fails to approximate the limit distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs because it ignores the dependence structure within the matched pairs.To address this difficulty we propose two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate the limit distribution: the gradient bootstrap and the weighted bootstrap of the inverse propensity score weighted (IPW) estimator. …

Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Price bubbles in multiple assets are sometimes nearly coincident in occurrence. Such near-coincidence is strongly suggestive of co-movement in the associated asset prices and likely driven by certain factors that are latent in the financial or economic system with common effects across several markets. Can we detect the presence of such common factors at the early stages of their emergence? To answer this question, we build a factor model that includes I(1), mildly explosive, and stationary factors to capture normal, exuberant, and collapsing phases in such phenomena. The I(1) factor models the primary driving force of market fundamentals. The explosive …

High-Dimensional Vars With Common Factors, Ke Miao, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies high-dimensional vector autoregressions (VARs) augmented with common factors that allow for strong cross section dependence. Models of this type provide a convenient mechanism for accommodating the interconnectedness and temporal co-variability that are often present in large dimensional systems. We propose an `1-nuclear-norm regularized estimator and derive non-asymptotic upper bounds for the estimation errors as well as large sample asymptotics for the estimates. A singular value thresholding procedure is used to determine the correct number of factors with probability approaching one. Both the LASSO estimator and the conservative LASSO estimator are employed to improve estimation precision. The conservative …

Doxastic Feel Like (That), Aarohi Srivastava

Yale Working Papers in Grammatical Diversity

Doxastic feel like is used to convey a belief or opinion, similar to think:

(1) I feel like your drawing is better than mine.

Doxastic feel like is an intriguing topic of study due to the potential for microsyntactic variation, along with the thick web of linguistic prejudice surrounding this construction. Doxastic feel like is primarily associated with stereotypes regarding age, gender, and intelligence. A survey was conduced to measure participants of diverse demographic backgrounds in their acceptability of feel like in different contexts. Overall, respondents were found to have high acceptability of this construction. In addition, respondents were …