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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Information Frictions And Access To The Paycheck Protection Program, John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Gabriel Ulyssea Jul 2020

Information Frictions And Access To The Paycheck Protection Program, John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Gabriel Ulyssea

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) extended 669 billion dollars of forgivable loans in an unprecedented effort to support small businesses affected by the COVID-19 crisis. This paper provides evidence that information frictions and the “first-come, first-served” design of the PPP program skewed its resources towards larger firms and may have permanently reduced its effectiveness. Using new daily survey data on small businesses in the U.S., we show that the smallest businesses were less aware of the PPP and less likely to apply. If they did apply, the smallest businesses applied later, faced longer processing times, and were less likely to …


You Can Lead A Horse To Water: Spatial Learning And Path Dependence In Consumer Search, Charles Hodgson, Gregory Lewis Jul 2020

You Can Lead A Horse To Water: Spatial Learning And Path Dependence In Consumer Search, Charles Hodgson, Gregory Lewis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We develop a model of consumer search with spatial learning in which sampling the payoff of one product causes consumers to update their beliefs about the payoffs of other products that are nearby in attribute space. Spatial learning gives rise to path dependence, as each new search decision depends on past experiences through the updating process. We present evidence of spatial learning in data that records online search for digital cameras. Consumers’ search paths tend to converge to the chosen product in attribute space, and consumers take larger steps away from rarely purchased products. We estimate the structural parameters of …


Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity, Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang Jul 2020

Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity, Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Economic and financial time series data can exhibit nonstationary and nonlinear patterns simultaneously. This paper studies copula-based time series models that capture both patterns. We introduce a procedure where nonstationarity is removed via a filtration, and then the nonlinear temporal dependence in the filtered data is captured via a flexible Markov copula. We propose two estimators of the copula dependence parameters: the parametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution of the filtered series is estimated parametrically; and the semiparametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution is estimated via a rescaled empirical distribution of the filtered series. We show …


A Public Option For The Core, Yotam Harchol, Dirk Bergemann, Nick Feamster, Eric Friedman, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Aurojit Panda, Sylvia Ratnasamy, Michael Schapira, Scott Shenker Jul 2020

A Public Option For The Core, Yotam Harchol, Dirk Bergemann, Nick Feamster, Eric Friedman, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Aurojit Panda, Sylvia Ratnasamy, Michael Schapira, Scott Shenker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper is focused not on the Internet architecture – as defined by layering, the narrow waist of IP, and other core design principles – but on the Internet infrastructure, as embodied in the technologies and organizations that provide Internet service. In this paper we discuss both the challenges and the opportunities that make this an auspicious time to revisit how we might best structure the Internet’s infrastructure. Currently, the tasks of transit-between-domains and last-mile-delivery are jointly handled by a set of ISPs who interconnect through BGP. In this paper we propose cleanly separating these two tasks. For transit, we …


Objective Rationality Foundations For (Dynamic) Α-Meu, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq Jul 2020

Objective Rationality Foundations For (Dynamic) Α-Meu, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show how incorporating Gilboa, Maccheroni, Marinacci, and Schmeidler’s (2010) notion of objective rationality into the alpha-MEU model of choice under ambiguity (Hurwicz, 1951) can overcome several challenges faced by the baseline model without objective rationality. The decision-maker (DM) has a subjectively rational preference $\succsim^\wedge$, which captures the complete ranking over acts the DM expresses when forced to make a choice; in addition, we endow the DM with a (possibly incomplete) objectively rational preference $\succsim^*$, which captures the rankings the DM deems uncontroversial. Under the objectively founded alpha-MEU model, $\succsim^\wedge$ has an alpha-MEU representation and $\succsim^*$ has a unanimity representation …


The Us Employment Situation Using The Yale Labor Survey, Christopher Foote, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers Jul 2020

The Us Employment Situation Using The Yale Labor Survey, Christopher Foote, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This study presents the design and results of a rapid-fire survey that collects labor market data for households in the United States. The Yale Labor Survey, or YLS, uses an online panel from YouGov to replicate the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the source of the government’s monthly household statistics. Questions in the YLS concern current and retrospective employment, hours, and income. Because the YLS draws upon an existing pool of potential respondents, it can generate responses inexpensively and quickly (within 24 hours). Moreover, the YLS can develop new questions in real time to study unusual patterns of work …


Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity, Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang Jul 2020

Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity, Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Economic and financial time series data can exhibit nonstationary and nonlinear patterns simultaneously. This paper studies copula-based time series models that capture both patterns. We propose a procedure where nonstationarity is removed via a filtration, and then the nonlinear temporal dependence in the filtered data is captured via a flexible Markov copula. We study the asymptotic properties of two estimators of the parametric copula dependence parameters: the parametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution of the filtered series is estimated parametrically; and the semiparametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution is estimated via a rescaled empirical distribution of …


Measuring Movement And Social Contact With Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application To Covid-19, Victor Couture, Jonathan L. Dingel, Allison Green, Jessie Handbury, Kevin R. Williams Jul 2020

Measuring Movement And Social Contact With Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application To Covid-19, Victor Couture, Jonathan L. Dingel, Allison Green, Jessie Handbury, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Tracking human activity in real time and at fine spatial scale is particularly valuable during episodes such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we discuss the suitability of smartphone data for quantifying movement and social contact. We show that these data cover broad sections of the US population and exhibit movement patterns similar to conventional survey data. We develop and make publicly available a location exposure index that summarizes county-to-county movements and a device exposure index that quantifies social contact within venues. We use these indices to document how pandemic-induced reductions in activity vary across people and places.


La “Doña” È Mobile: The Role Of Women In Social Mobility In A Pre-Modern Economy, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Salvador Gil-Guirado, Chris Vickers Jul 2020

La “Doña” È Mobile: The Role Of Women In Social Mobility In A Pre-Modern Economy, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Salvador Gil-Guirado, Chris Vickers

Discussion Papers

We use data from marriage records in Murcia, Spain, in the 18th century to study the role of women in social mobility in the pre-modern era. Our measure of socioeconomic standing is identification as a don or doña, an honorific denoting high, though not neccesarily, noble status. We show that this measure, which is acquired over the lifecycle, shows gendered transmission patters. In particular, same-sex transmission is stronger than opposite-sex, for both sons and daughters. The relative transmission from fathers versus mothers varies over the lifecycle, and grandparents may have an effect on the status of their grandchildren.


Objective Rationality Foundations For (Dynamic) Alpha-Meu, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq Jul 2020

Objective Rationality Foundations For (Dynamic) Alpha-Meu, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show how incorporating Gilboa, Maccheroni, Marinacci, and Schmeidler’s (2010) notion of objective rationality into the α-MEU model of choice under ambiguity can overcome several challenges faced by the baseline model without objective rationality. The decision-maker (DM) has a subjectively rational preference ≿^, which captures the complete ranking overacts the DM expresses when forced to make a choice; in addition, we endow the DM with a (possibly incomplete) objectively rational preference ≿*, which captures the rankings the DM deems uncontroversial. Under the objectively founded α-MEU model, ≿^ has an α-MEU representation and ≿*has a unanimity representation à la Bewley (2002), …


Work In The Time Of Covid: Results From The Yale Labor Survey, Christopher Foote, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers Jun 2020

Work In The Time Of Covid: Results From The Yale Labor Survey, Christopher Foote, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The Yale Labor Survey (YLS) uses online panels to estimate the state of the US labor market in real time. It is designed to parallel the US government’s monthly labor force survey and present weekly information rapidly and inexpensively. Using an experimental design, the YLS estimates that the US unemployment rate peaked in late April and improved substantially by mid-June. The YLS unemployment rate in mid-June is estimated to be 15%, down about 2 percentage points from mid-May.


Rationing The Commons, Nicholas Ryan, Anant Sudarshan Jun 2020

Rationing The Commons, Nicholas Ryan, Anant Sudarshan

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Common resources may be managed with inefficient policies for the sake of equity. We study how rationing the commons shapes the efficiency and equity of resource use, in the context of agricultural groundwater use in Rajasthan, India. We find that rationing binds on input use, such that farmers, despite trivial prices for water extraction, use roughly the socially optimal amount of water on average. The rationing regime is still grossly inefficient, because it misallocates water across farmers, lowering productivity. Pigouvian reform would increase agricultural surplus by 12% of household income, yet fall well short of a Pareto improvement over rationing.


Adaptive, Rate-Optimal Testing In Instrumental Variables Models, Christoph Breunig, Xiaohong Chen Jun 2020

Adaptive, Rate-Optimal Testing In Instrumental Variables Models, Christoph Breunig, Xiaohong Chen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper proposes simple, data-driven, optimal rate-adaptive inferences on a structural function in semi-nonparametric conditional moment restrictions. We consider two types of hypothesis tests based on leave-one-out sieve estimators. A structure- space test (ST) uses a quadratic distance between the structural functions of endogenous variables; while an image-space test (IT) uses a quadratic distance of the conditional moment from zero. For both tests, we analyze their respective classes of nonparametric alternative models that are separated from the null hypothesis by the minimax rate of testing. That is, the sum of the type I and the type II errors of the …


Adaptive, Rate-Optimal Hypothesis Testing In Nonparametric Iv Models, Christoph Breunig, Xiaohong Chen Jun 2020

Adaptive, Rate-Optimal Hypothesis Testing In Nonparametric Iv Models, Christoph Breunig, Xiaohong Chen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a new adaptive hypothesis test for polyhedral cone (e.g., monotonicity, convexity) and equality (e.g., parametric, semiparametric) restrictions on a structural function in a nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) model. Our test statistic is based on a modified leave-one-out sample analog of a quadratic distance between the restricted and unrestricted sieve NPIV estimators. We provide computationally simple, data-driven choices of sieve tuning parameters and adjusted chi-squared critical values. Our test adapts to the unknown smoothness of alternative functions in the presence of unknown degree of endogeneity and unknown strength of the instruments. It attains the adaptive minimax rate of testing …


From Imitation To Innovation: Where Is All That Chinese R&D Going?, König D. König, Kjetil Storesletten, Zheng Song, Fabrizio Zilibotti Jun 2020

From Imitation To Innovation: Where Is All That Chinese R&D Going?, König D. König, Kjetil Storesletten, Zheng Song, Fabrizio Zilibotti

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We construct a model of rm dynamics with heterogenous productivity and distortions. The productivity distribution evolves endogenously as the result of the decisions of firms seeking to upgrade their productivity over time. Firms can adopt two strategies toward that end: imitation and innovation. The theory bears predictions about the evolution of the productivity distribution. We structurally estimate the stationary state of the dynamic model targeting moments of the empirical distribution of R&D and TFP growth in China during the period 2007-2012. The estimated model ts the Chinese data well. We compare the estimates with those obtained using data for Taiwan …


Mapbook Of Syntactic Variation In American English: Survey Results, 2015–2019, Jim Wood, Kaija Gahm, Ian Neidel, Sasha Lioutikova, Luke S. Lindemann, Lydia Lee, Josephine Holubkov Jun 2020

Mapbook Of Syntactic Variation In American English: Survey Results, 2015–2019, Jim Wood, Kaija Gahm, Ian Neidel, Sasha Lioutikova, Luke S. Lindemann, Lydia Lee, Josephine Holubkov

Yale Working Papers in Grammatical Diversity

This work presents the results of a series of acceptability judgment surveys conducted by the Yale Grammatical Diversity Project (YGDP) between 2015 and 2019. It contains over 200 maps of some 194 sentences, covering a wide range of syntactic constructions, including dative presentatives, personal datives, extended benefactives, the have yet to construction, the done my homework construction, wicked, hella, the so don’t I construction, the alls construction, the come with construction, fixin’ to, the needs washed construction, non-polarity anymore (aka “positive anymore”), and many others. For each sentence, we also provide some basic demographic information, such …


Multiproduct Intermediaries, Andrew Rhodes, Makoto Watanabe, Jidong Zhou May 2020

Multiproduct Intermediaries, Andrew Rhodes, Makoto Watanabe, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a new framework for studying multiproduct intermediaries when consumers demand multiple products and face search frictions. We show that a multiproduct intermediary is profitable even when it does not improve consumer search efficiency. In its optimal product selection, it stocks high-value products exclusively to attract consumers to visit, then profits by selling non-exclusive products which are relatively cheap to buy from upstream suppliers. However, relative to the social optimum, the intermediary tends to be too big and stock too many products exclusively. As applications we use the framework to study the optimal design of a shopping mall, …


Recursive Preferences, The Value Of Life, And Household Finance, Antoine Bommier, Daniel Harenberg, François Le Grand, Cormac O'Dea May 2020

Recursive Preferences, The Value Of Life, And Household Finance, Antoine Bommier, Daniel Harenberg, François Le Grand, Cormac O'Dea

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze lifecycle saving strategies using a recursive utility model calibrated to match empirical estimates of the value of a statistical life. The novelty of our approach is that we require preferences to be monotone with respect to first order stochastic dominance. The framework we use can disentangle risk aversion and the intertemporal elasticity and can feature a positive value of life without placing constraints on the value of the risk aversion parameter or the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. We show that, with a positive value of life, risk aversion reduces savings, decreases stock market participation and decreases annuity purchase. …


Stability And Robustness In Misspecified Learning Models, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii May 2020

Stability And Robustness In Misspecified Learning Models, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We present an approach to analyze learning outcomes in a broad class of misspecified environments, spanning both single-agent and social learning. Our main results provide general criteria to determine—without the need to explicitly analyze learning dynamics—when beliefs in a given environment converge to some long-run belief either locally or globally (i.e., from some or all initial beliefs). The key ingredient underlying these criteria is a novel “prediction accuracy” ordering over subjective models that refines existing comparisons based on Kullback-Leibler divergence. We show that these criteria can be applied, first, to unify and generalize various convergence results in previously studied settings. …


Financing Firms In Hibernation During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Tatiana Didier, Federico Huneeus, Mauricio Larrain, Sergio L. Schmukler May 2020

Financing Firms In Hibernation During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Tatiana Didier, Federico Huneeus, Mauricio Larrain, Sergio L. Schmukler

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has halted economic activity worldwide, hurting firms and pushing them toward bankruptcy. This paper provides a unified framework to organize the policy debate related to firm financing during the downturn, centered along four main points. First, the economic crisis triggered by the spread of the virus is radically different from past crises, with important consequences for optimal policy responses. Second, to avoid inefficient bankruptcies and long-term detrimental effects, it is important to preserve firms’ relationships with key stakeholders, like workers, suppliers, customers, and creditors. Third, firms can benefit from “hibernating,” using the minimum bare cash necessary …


Robust Identification Of Investor Beliefs, Xiaohong Chen, Lars P. Hansen, Peter G. Hansen May 2020

Robust Identification Of Investor Beliefs, Xiaohong Chen, Lars P. Hansen, Peter G. Hansen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a new method informed by data and models to recover information about investor beliefs. Our approach uses information embedded in forward-looking asset prices in conjunction with asset pricing models. We step back from presuming rational expectations and entertain potential belief distortions bounded by a statistical measure of discrepancy. Additionally, our method allows for the direct use of sparse survey evidence to make these bounds more informative. Within our framework, market-implied beliefs may differ from those implied by rational expectations due to behavioral/psychological biases of investors, ambiguity aversion, or omitted permanent components to valuation. Formally, we represent evidence …


Competition And Public Information: A Note, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris May 2020

Competition And Public Information: A Note, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study price discrimination in a market in which two firms engage in Bertrand competition. Some consumers are contested by both firms, and other consumers are “captive” to one of the firms. The market can be divided into segments, which have different relative shares of captive and contested consumers. It is shown that the revenue-maximizing segmentation involves dividing the market into “nested” markets, where exactly one firm may have captive consumers.


Recursive Preferences, The Value Of Life, And Household Finance, Antoine Bommier, Daniel Harenberg, François Le Grand, Cormac O'Dea May 2020

Recursive Preferences, The Value Of Life, And Household Finance, Antoine Bommier, Daniel Harenberg, François Le Grand, Cormac O'Dea

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze lifecycle saving strategies using a recursive utility model calibrated to match empirical estimates for the value of a statistical life. We show that, with a positive value of life, risk aversion reduces savings and annuity purchase. Risk averse agents are willing to make an early death a not-so-adverse outcome by enjoying greater consumption when young and bequeathing wealth in case of death. We also find that greater risk aversion lowers stock market participation. We show that this model can rationalize low annuity demand while also matching empirically documented levels of wealth and private investments in stocks. Our findings …


Belief Convergence Under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii May 2020

Belief Convergence Under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We present an approach to analyze learning outcomes in a broad class of misspecified environments, spanning both single-agent and social learning. We introduce a novel “prediction accuracy” order over subjective models, and observe that this makes it possible to partially restore standard martingale convergence arguments that apply under correctly specified learning. Based on this, we derive general conditions to determine when beliefs in a given environment converge to some long-run belief either locally or globally (i.e., from some or all initial beliefs). We show that these conditions can be applied, first, to unify and generalize various convergence results in previously …


Belief Convergence Under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii May 2020

Belief Convergence Under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We present an approach to analyze learning outcomes in a broad class of misspecified environments, spanning both single-agent and social learning. We introduce a novel “prediction accuracy” order over subjective models, and observe that this makes it possible to partially restore standard martingale convergence arguments that apply under correctly specified learning. Based on this, we derive general conditions to determine when beliefs in a given environment converge to some long-run belief either locally or globally (i.e., from some or all initial beliefs). We show that these conditions can be applied, first, to unify and generalize various convergence results in previously …


Adaptive Rationality In Strategic Interaction: Do Emotions Regulate Thinking About Others?, Timo Ehrig, Jaison Manjaly, Aditya Singh, Shyam Sunder Apr 2020

Adaptive Rationality In Strategic Interaction: Do Emotions Regulate Thinking About Others?, Timo Ehrig, Jaison Manjaly, Aditya Singh, Shyam Sunder

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Forming beliefs or expectations about others’ behavior is fundamental to strategy, as it co-determines the outcomes of interactions in and across organizations. In the game theoretic conception of rationality, agents reason iteratively about each other to form expectations about behavior. According to prior scholarship, actual strategists fall short of this ideal, and attempts to understand the underlying cognitive processes of forming expectations about others are in their infancy. We propose that emotions help regulate iterative reasoning, that is, their tendency to not only reflect on what others think, but also on what others think about their thinking. Drawing on a …


Optimal Control Of An Epidemic Through Social Distancing, Thomas Kruse, Philipp Strack Apr 2020

Optimal Control Of An Epidemic Through Social Distancing, Thomas Kruse, Philipp Strack

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze how to optimally engage in social distancing (SD) in order to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. We identify conditions under which the optimal policy is single-peaked, i.e., first engages in increasingly more social distancing and subsequently decreases its intensity. We show that the optimal policy might delay measures that decrease the transmission rate substantially to create “herd-immunity” and that engaging in social distancing sub-optimally early can increase the number of fatalities. Finally, we find that optimal social distancing can be an effective measure in substantially reducing the death rate of a disease.


Optimal Control Of An Epidemic Through Social Distancing, Thomas Kruse, Philipp Strack Apr 2020

Optimal Control Of An Epidemic Through Social Distancing, Thomas Kruse, Philipp Strack

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze how to optimally engage in social distancing in order to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. We identify conditions under which any optimal policy is single-peaked, i.e., first engages in increasingly more social distancing and subsequently decreases its intensity. We show that an optimal policy might delay measures that decrease the transmission rate substantially to create herd-immunity and that engaging in social distancing sub-optimally early can increase the number of fatalities. Finally, we find that optimal social distancing can be an effective measure and can substantially reduce the death rate of a disease.


The Evolving Impacts Of Covid-19 On Small Businesses Since The Cares Act, John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Gabriel Ulyssea Apr 2020

The Evolving Impacts Of Covid-19 On Small Businesses Since The Cares Act, John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Gabriel Ulyssea

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This note provides new evidence on how small business owners have been impacted by COVID-19, and how these effects have evolved since the passage of the CARES Act. As part of a broader and ongoing project, we collected survey data from more than 8,000 small business owners in the U.S. from March 28th, one day after the CARES Act was passed, through April 20th. The data include information on firm size, layoffs, beliefs about the future prospects of their businesses, as well as awareness of existing government relief programs. We provide three main findings. First, by the time the CARES …


It Takes A Village: The Economics Of Parenting With Neighborhood And Peer Effects, Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti, Fabrizio Zilibotti Apr 2020

It Takes A Village: The Economics Of Parenting With Neighborhood And Peer Effects, Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti, Fabrizio Zilibotti

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

As children reach adolescence, peer interactions become increasingly central to their development, whereas the direct influence of parents wanes. Nevertheless, parents may continue to exert leverage by shaping their children’s peer groups. We study interactions of parenting style and peer effects in a model where children’s skill accumulation depends on both parental inputs and peers, and where parents can affect the peer group by restricting who their children can interact with. We estimate the model and show that it can capture empirical patterns regarding the interaction of peer characteristics, parental behavior, and skill accumulation among US high school students. We …