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Articles 8161 - 8190 of 9281

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Financial Variables As Predictors Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay Jul 2007

Financial Variables As Predictors Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate two methods for using daily stock returns to forecast, and update forecasts of, quarterly real output growth. Both methods aggregate daily returns in some manner to form a single stock market variable. We consider (i) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model for real output growth with daily returns using a nonparametric Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) setting, and (ii) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model with the most recent r -day returns as an additional predictor. We discover that adding low frequency stock returns (up to annual returns, depending on forecast horizon) to a quarterly AR(1) model improves forecasts of output …

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A Corrected Plug-In Method For Quantile Interval Construction Through A Transformed Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse Jul 2007

A Corrected Plug-In Method For Quantile Interval Construction Through A Transformed Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a corrected plug-in method for constructing confidence intervals of the conditional quantiles of an original response variable through a transformed regression with heteroscedastic errors. The interval is easy to compute. Factors affecting the magnitude of the correction are examined analytically through the special case of Box-Cox regression. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method works well in general and is superior over the commonly used delta method and the quantile regression method. An empirical application is presented. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

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U.S.-Hong Kong Relations: Prospects For A Unique Partnership, Bates Gill, James T. H. Tang Jul 2007

U.S.-Hong Kong Relations: Prospects For A Unique Partnership, Bates Gill, James T. H. Tang

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Hong Kong has survived turbulent economic, social and political changes in the past ten years since the former crown colony’s reversion to Chinese sovereignty. Following setbacks in the wake of the Asian financial crisis and the avian flu outbreak in 1997, the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, and several massive political demonstrations in recent years, Hong Kong’s economy has had a robust and steady rebound. Hong Kong has maintained its position as a leading business and financial hub in the Asia-Pacific region and for the world. It has continued to play a pivotal role in China’s …

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Redefining Marriage: Where To Draw The Line?, Seow Hon Tan Jul 2007

Redefining Marriage: Where To Draw The Line?, Seow Hon Tan

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

No abstract provided.

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Political Dialogue And Human Rights In The Framework Of The Cotonou Agreement, Clara Portela Jul 2007

Political Dialogue And Human Rights In The Framework Of The Cotonou Agreement, Clara Portela

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

The present study analyses the use of the political instruments for the protection of Human Rights, democracy and the rule of law under the Partnership Agreement between the European Union (EU) and the African-Caribbean–Pacific (ACP) countries embedded in the Cotonou Agreement: the consultations under article 96, intensified and regular political dialogue. It briefly outlines the legal provisions of the revised treaty, reviews recent practice, and looks into the involvement of civil society and parliamentary bodies in the political dialogue.

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Redefining Marriage: Where To Draw The Line?, Seow Hon Tan Jul 2007

Redefining Marriage: Where To Draw The Line?, Seow Hon Tan

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

No abstract provided.

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Estimation Of Impulse Response Functions Using Long Autoregression, Pao Li Chang, Shinichi Sakata Jul 2007

Estimation Of Impulse Response Functions Using Long Autoregression, Pao Li Chang, Shinichi Sakata

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes an alternative methodology to estimate impulse response functions without imposing parametric restrictions. The impulse responses are estimated by regressing the series of interest on estimated innovations, which are the residuals obtained from a prior-stage ‘long autoregression.’ We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. The proposed estimator is closely related to the estimator of Jordà (2005, American Economic Review 95, 161–182). Our large sample analysis, as a byproduct, establishes the asymptotic equivalence between Jordà's estimator and our estimator, and provides justifications for the statistical inference method used in Jordà (2005).

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Direction-Of-Change Forecasts For Asian Equity Markets Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Robert S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse Jul 2007

Direction-Of-Change Forecasts For Asian Equity Markets Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Robert S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.

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Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Jun Yu Jul 2007

Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is well-known that maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects is inconsistent under fixed time series sample size (T) and large cross section sample size (N) asymptotics. The estimation bias is particularly relevant in practical applications when T is small and the autoregressive parameter is close to unity. The present paper proposes a general, computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on indirect inference (Gouriéroux et al., 1993), shows unbiasedness and analyzes efficiency. The method is implemented in a simple linear dynamic panel model, but has wider …

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Instrumental Variable Quantile Estimation Of Spatial Autoregressive Models, Zhenlin Yang Jul 2007

Instrumental Variable Quantile Estimation Of Spatial Autoregressive Models, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) estimator for spatial autoregressive (SAR) models. Like the GMM estimators of Lin and Lee (2006) and Kelejian and Prucha (2006), the IVQR estimator is robust against heteroscedasticity. Unlike the GMM estimators, the IVQR estimator is also robust against outliers and requires weaker moment conditions. More importantly, it allows us to characterize the heterogeneous impact of variables on different points (quantiles) of a response distribution. We derive the limiting distribution of the new estimator. Simulation results show that the new estimator performs well in finite samples at various quantile points. In the special …

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Future Imperfect: The European Union's Encounter With China (And The United States), William A. Callahan Jul 2007

Future Imperfect: The European Union's Encounter With China (And The United States), William A. Callahan

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

There has been much talk in recent years about an emerging EU-China axis that challenges the United States in a new strategic triangle. The EU-China strategic partnership, which was declared in 2003, suggests that both sides are gaining global influence as a new kind of superpower that seeks to avoid the bloody conflict that characterized the Cold War. Rather than discuss the contours of this new geopolitical axis, this essay argues that EU-China relations are shifting the meaning of security in an emerging arena of global symbolic politics. It analyzes the symbolic politics of EU-China relations through a close reading …

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Singapore's First Institute For Service Excellence Established At Smu, Singapore Management University Jul 2007

Singapore's First Institute For Service Excellence Established At Smu, Singapore Management University

SMU Press Releases and News

No abstract provided.

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Silence Speaks Volumes: The Effectiveness Of Reticence In Comparison To Apology And Denial For Repairing Integrity- And Competence-Based Trust Violations, Donald L. Ferrin, Peter H. Kim, Cecily D. Cooper, Kurt T. Dirks Jul 2007

Silence Speaks Volumes: The Effectiveness Of Reticence In Comparison To Apology And Denial For Repairing Integrity- And Competence-Based Trust Violations, Donald L. Ferrin, Peter H. Kim, Cecily D. Cooper, Kurt T. Dirks

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Prior research on responses to trust violations has focused primarily on the effects of apology and denial. The authors extended this research by studying another type of verbal response that is often used to respond to trust violations but has not been considered in the trust literature: reticence. An accused party may use reticence in a sincere and even legitimate attempt to persuade a trustor to withhold judgment. Yet, by considering information diagnosticity and belief formation mechanisms through which verbal responses influence trust, the authors argue that reticence is a suboptimal response because it combines the least effective elements of …

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An Empirical Examination Of The Mechanisms Mediating Between High Performance Work Systems And The Performance Of Japanese Organizations, Riki Takeuchi, David P. Lepak, Heli Wang, Kazuo Takeuchi Jul 2007

An Empirical Examination Of The Mechanisms Mediating Between High Performance Work Systems And The Performance Of Japanese Organizations, Riki Takeuchi, David P. Lepak, Heli Wang, Kazuo Takeuchi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The resource-based view of the firm and social exchange perspectives are invoked to hypothesize linkages among high-performance work systems, collective human capital, the degree of social exchange in an establishment, and establishment performance. The authors argue that high-performance work systems generate a high level of collective human capital and encourage a high degree of social exchange within an organization, and that these are positively related to the organization's overall performance. On the basis of a sample of Japanese establishments, the results provide support for the existence of these mediating mechanisms through which high-performance work systems affect overall establishment performance.

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Why Is There No Game?' Critical Success Factors In Blending An E-Learning Module Into A Knowledge Management Course: A Case Study From The Singapore Management University (Smu), Thomas Menkhoff, Yue Kee Wong, Tze Yian Thang, Donata Ty Edgardo Jul 2007

Why Is There No Game?' Critical Success Factors In Blending An E-Learning Module Into A Knowledge Management Course: A Case Study From The Singapore Management University (Smu), Thomas Menkhoff, Yue Kee Wong, Tze Yian Thang, Donata Ty Edgardo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In 2005, the authors of this essay led the development and launch of SMU's (Singapore Management University) first e-learning package on 'Knowledge Management'. This package has been integrated into the overall teaching strategy, thereby fulfilling the University's mission to be "committed to an interactive, participative and technologically-enabled learning experience"

Since its inception in 2000, SMU's educational and administrative practices are modelled after American institutions, in particular the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. To support SMU's unique pedagogy, wireless technology for mobile computing is a central feature at SMU.

Against this background, the paper presents a self-critical and reflective …

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How Much Should Foreign Talent Be Paid?, Manoj Thulasidas Jul 2007

How Much Should Foreign Talent Be Paid?, Manoj Thulasidas

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Singapore needs foreign talent — and there’s no need to feel bad about it. It is a statistical fact of life. For every top Singaporean in any field — be it science, medicine, finance, sports or whatever — we will find about 500 professionals of equal calibre in China and India. Not because we are 500 times less talented, just that they have 500 times more people.

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Organisational Learning: Conceptual Links To Individual Learning, Learning Organisation And Knowledge Management, Siu Loon Hoe Jul 2007

Organisational Learning: Conceptual Links To Individual Learning, Learning Organisation And Knowledge Management, Siu Loon Hoe

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Organisational learning has over the years been subject of much study by scholars and managers. In the process, the organisational learning concept has been linked to many other knowledge concepts such as individual learning, learning organisation, and knowledge management. This paper draws from existing literature in organisational behaviour, human resource management, marketing, and information management, to further develop the conceptual links between organisational learning and these knowledge concepts. The paper discusses the characteristics of organisational learning and emphasises its link to individual learning, the learning organisation, and knowledge management. It contributes to the conceptual and theoretical understanding of organisational learning …

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Is Interpersonal Trust A Necessary Condition For Organisational Learning?, Siu Loon Hoe Jul 2007

Is Interpersonal Trust A Necessary Condition For Organisational Learning?, Siu Loon Hoe

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The organisational behaviour and management literature has devoted a lot attention on various factors affecting organisational learning. While there has been much work done to examine trust in promoting organisational learning, there is a lack of consensus on the specific type of trust involved. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of interpersonal trust in promoting organisational learning and propose a research agenda to test the extent of interpersonal trust on organisational learning. This paper contributes to the existing organisational learning literature by specifying a specific form of trust, interpersonal trust, which promotes organisational learning and proposing …

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It's Not So Hard To Say Goodbye, M. Thulasidas Jul 2007

It's Not So Hard To Say Goodbye, M. Thulasidas

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Staff retention is a major problem in the job market here. Our economy is doing well; our job market is red hot. As a result, new job offers are becoming more irresistible. At some stage, someone you work closely with — be it your staff, your boss or a fellow team member — is going to hand in that dreaded letter to the human resource (HR) department. Handling resignations with tact and grace is no longer merely a desirable quality, but an essential corporate skill today.

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Asymmetric Discounting In Intertemporal Choice: A Query Theory Account, E. U. Weber, E. J. Johnson, K. F. Milch, Hannah H. Chang, J. C. Brodscholl, D. G. Goldstein Jun 2007

Asymmetric Discounting In Intertemporal Choice: A Query Theory Account, E. U. Weber, E. J. Johnson, K. F. Milch, Hannah H. Chang, J. C. Brodscholl, D. G. Goldstein

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

People are impatient and discount future rewards more when they are asked to delay consumption than when they are offered the chance to accelerate consumption. The three experiments reported here provide a process-level account for this asymmetry, with implications for designing decision environments that promote less impulsivity. In Experiment 1, a thought-listing procedure showed that people decompose discount valuation into two queries. Whether one considers delayed or accelerated receipt of a gift certificate influences the order in which memory is queried to support immediate versus delayed consumption, and the order of queries affects the relative number of patient versus impatient …

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Autarkic Indeterminacy And Trade Determinacy, Kong Weng Ho, Nicholas Sim Jun 2007

Autarkic Indeterminacy And Trade Determinacy, Kong Weng Ho, Nicholas Sim

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim, Wei Sun Jun 2007

Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim, Wei Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

Frankel and Wei (1994) developed and popularized a method for uncovering the implicit weights assigned to major international currencies constituting a currency basket. We extend the methodology in two dimensions: include regional competitive pressure and employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to overcome simultaneity bias. With these modifications, we confirm the prominent role of the US dollar in the exchange rate policy of East Asian economies beyond the short run. However, despite the high degree of commitment to nominal exchange rate stability prior to the crisis, fluctuations in most East Asian currencies are also significantly influenced by country specific shocks. …

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Distance To Frontier And The Big Swings Of The Unemployment Rate: What Room Is Left For Monetary Policy?, Hian Teck Hoon, Kong Weng Ho Jun 2007

Distance To Frontier And The Big Swings Of The Unemployment Rate: What Room Is Left For Monetary Policy?, Hian Teck Hoon, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper builds upon Hoon and Phelps (1992, 1997) to ask how much of the evolution of the unemployment rate over several decades in country can be explained by real factors in an equilibrium model of the natural rate where country's productivity growth depends upon its distance from the world's technological leader. One motivating contemporary example includes the evolution of unemployment rates in Europe as it recovered from the second world war and caught up technologically to the US. Another example that may be less familiar to many people is Singapore (the second fastest growing economy from 1960 to 2000 …

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A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps Jun 2007

A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

In open-economy macroeconomics there is a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and there is a nonmonetary neoclassical theory thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades¡ªthe '80s shock to Europe taking the form of an external jump in real interest rates; the sort of shock experienced in the U.S. and parts of northern Europe in the second half of the '90s: the emerging prospect of new industries in the future …

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A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps Jun 2007

A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

Open-economy macroeconomics contains a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and a nonmonetary neoclassical model thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades? We first indicate that the effects of these shocks on the open economy are not well captured by either the standard Keynesian model or the standard neoclassical theory. Next we provide a careful development of a nonmonetary model of the equilibrium path of the real exchange rate, share …

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Reviewing Journal Rankings And Revisiting Peer Reviews: Editorial Perspectives, Timothy Adrian Robert Clark, Mike Wright Jun 2007

Reviewing Journal Rankings And Revisiting Peer Reviews: Editorial Perspectives, Timothy Adrian Robert Clark, Mike Wright

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this article we respond to the key points made by Macdonald and Kam (2007) in relation to journal quality and the peer review process. Whilst we appreciate that their tone is intentionally provocative, the picture they present is one of unremitting gloom and reluctant acquiescence to a system out of control. It is as if the publication process has a series of self‐supporting logics that separate it from any notion of publishing in order to benefit the discipline through the advance of knowledge and understanding. From this perspective the publishing process and the consequent content of management journals are …

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Tourism, Development And Poverty Reduction In Guizhou And Yunnan, John A. Donaldson Jun 2007

Tourism, Development And Poverty Reduction In Guizhou And Yunnan, John A. Donaldson

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

How did the differing strategies adopted to develop tourism in Guizhou and Yunnan affect patterns of economic development and poverty reduction? The answer is paradoxical. Both provincial governments incorporated tourism as part of their overall development strategies, but their tourism sites were distributed and structured strikingly differently. In Yunnan, although tourism contributed to rapid economic growth, it did not reduce rural poverty as much as might be expected from a large rural-based industry. By contrast, Guizhou's relatively small-scale tourism industry, although not contributing significantly to growth, was distributed largely in poor areas and was structured to allow poor people to …

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Electoral Laws As Political Consequences: Explaining The Origins And Change Of Electoral Institutions, Kenneth Benoit Jun 2007

Electoral Laws As Political Consequences: Explaining The Origins And Change Of Electoral Institutions, Kenneth Benoit

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

In this review article, I identify the key questions raised by the treatment of electoral systems not as causal influences on party systems but as effects or byproducts of party systems. Framing these questions in the context of the classic consequences-oriented study of electoral institutions, I first review the classic approach, which treats electoral systems as causes, and explore the potential implications when electoral systems are viewed instead as outcomes of party systems. I then survey a variety of principal explanations of the origins and change of electoral laws, followed by a focus on several of the more explicitly defined …

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Nonlinear Filters Based On Taylor Series Expansions, Hisashi Tanizaki, Roberto S. Mariano Jun 2007

Nonlinear Filters Based On Taylor Series Expansions, Hisashi Tanizaki, Roberto S. Mariano

Research Collection School Of Economics

The nonlinear filters based on Taylor series approximation are broadly used for computational simplicity, even though their filtering estimates are clearly biased. In this paper, first, we analyze what is approximated when we apply the expanded nonlinear functions to the standard linear recursive Kalman filter algorithm. Next, since the state variable αt and αt-t are approximated as a conditional normal distribution given information up to time t - 1 (i.e., It-1) in approximation of the Taylor series expansion, it might be appropriate to evaluate each expectation by generating normal random numbers of αt and α …

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A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps Jun 2007

A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

Open-economy macroeconomics contains a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and a nonmonetary neoclassical model thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades—the ’80s shock to Europe from the sharp increase of external real interest rates; the kind of speculative shock experienced in the U.S. and parts of northern Europe in the second half of the ’90s: the prospect of new industries emerging in the future with needs for new capital; …

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