Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Does Joining The European Monetary Union Improve Labor Productivity? A Synthetic Control Approach, Hong Zhuang, Miao Grace Wang, Imre Ersoy, Mesut Eren

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

We adopt the innovative synthetic control method (SCM) to study the causal effect of joining the European Monetary Union (EMU) on member countries’ labor productivity. Comparing labor productivity between members and their synthetic counterparts, we find that Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands experienced significant labor productivity gains from the eurozone membership. Our results are robust to a series of sensitivity checks. We also observe similar effects of EMU on members’ total factor productivity (TFP). Furthermore, we explore potential channels through which a monetary union can influence members’ labor productivity. Our results show that business cycle synchronization with …

An Empirical Evaluation Of Neural Process Meta-Learners For Financial Forecasting, Kevin G. Patel

Master's Theses

Challenges of financial forecasting, such as a dearth of independent samples and non- stationary underlying process, limit the relevance of conventional machine learning towards financial forecasting. Meta-learning approaches alleviate some of these is- sues by allowing the model to generalize across unrelated or loosely related tasks with few observations per task. The neural process family achieves this by con- ditioning forecasts based on a supplied context set at test time. Despite promise, meta-learning approaches remain underutilized in finance. To our knowledge, ours is the first application of neural processes to realized volatility (RV) forecasting and financial forecasting in general.

We …

The Economic Surplus, The Baran Ratio, And Long Wave Cycles, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

This paper briefly outlines the idea and development of the economic surplus concept at the macroeconomic level as opposed to the one in microeconomics often labeled as a Marshallian surplus. Of special interest and focus is the concept as developed and used by heterodox economists. The notion of a residual amount of output or income over and above what is necessary for a society’s consumption (education, housing, food, clothing, health care, transportation, and other necessities of life) that can be used either for further consumption by an elite class, used for reinvestment in productive activities, and/or wasted on unproductive efforts …

(Wp 2023-02) What Are Reflexive Economic Agents? Position-Adjustment, Slam, And Self-Organization, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

If mainstream economics and its view of economic agents is designed for a world in which reflexivity and feedback processes in the economy are ‘tamed’ and predictable, how are we to understand economic agents in a world in which reflexivity is ‘untamed’ and economies regularly exhibit unexpected fluctuations and significant nonlinearities? In a nonlinear world, economies evolve and undergo critical phase transitions from one form of organization to another. It seems, then, that we should also expect economic agents to evolve and undergo critical phase transitions from being one type of agent to another just as we observe that economies …

Montana Travel Region & Counties - Economic Contribution Of 2021/2022 Averaged Nonresident Travel Spending, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Nonresidents now spend over $5 billion in Montana each year. This report looks at the distribution of spending across Montana's six travel regions, as well as 18 of the 56 counties with the highest spending based on an average of 2021 and 2022 spending data.

Snowmobile Recreation In Western Montana, Liam Harry, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report is a summary of recreation snowmobilers in Western Montana regarding their visitor characteristics and demographics. The Institute forTourism and Recreation Research (ITRR) conducted surveys of snowmobilers to understand the profile and general characteristics of this user group.

2022 Resident Visitation: Yellowstone National Park & Glacier National Park, Carter Bermingham, Megan Schultz, Matthew Pettigrew, Glenna Brown

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This particular study was conducted to better understand resident visitation to the national parks in the state, and to also understand some of the obstacles that may have prevented residents from visiting the parks in 2022. This report includes information on monthly visitation to both Glacier and Yellowstone national parks, as well as the number of respondents who were deterred by the flooding in Yellowstone and the ticketed-entry system in Glacier.

Is Democracy Good For Growth? Development At Political Transition Time Matters, Di Sima, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is democracy a better political regime for economic prosperity than autocracy? This paper shows that the answer depends on the initial economic development level during the democratic transition when the foundation of institutions was laid. Democracy facilitates growth only in countries that already have adequate development at transition time. These countries are more likely to create and sustain growth-enhancing institutions than others. Without appropriate development, democracy does not improve growth; this applies to about 40% of the third-wave democratized countries. These results are based on a sample of 153 countries in 1960–2010 and robust to various specifications and endogeneity issues.

Brothers, Sisters, And Support To Older Parents: Separate Spheres Across And Within Support Types?, Christine Ho, Kathleen Mcgarry

Research Collection School Of Economics

Parents in many countries exhibit a strong preference for sons over daughters; a preference that is often observed regarding transfers to children. Here, we ask whether son preference also drives differences in behavior regarding transfers from sons and daughters. We use data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to examine the patterns of giving to parents and find strong evidence of such differentiation. Coresidential support comes almost exclusively from sons as do large transfers, while daughters are more likely to make small transfers. Moreover, crowding-out of financial transfers by siblings occurs primarily within gender: sons give less …

Disagreement In Market Index Options, Guilherme Salome, George Tauchen, Jia Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We generate new evidence on disagreement among traders in the S&P 500 options market from high-frequency intraday price and volume data. Inference on disagreement is based on a model where investors observe public information but agree to disagree on its interpretation; disagreement among investors is captured by the volume–volatility elasticity. For options, there are two natural variables related to disagreement: moneyness and tenor, which we relate to disagreement about the distribution of the market index at different quantiles and times. The estimated volume–volatility elasticity equals unity for options near the money and close to expiration, which is consistent with the …

Regression-Adjusted Estimation Of Quantile Treatment Effects Under Covariate-Adaptive Randomizations, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yubo Tao, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Datasets from field experiments with covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) usually contain extra covariates in addition to the strata indicators. We propose to incorporate these additional covariates via auxiliary regressions in the estimation and inference of unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) under CARs. We establish the consistency and limit distribution of the regression-adjusted QTE estimator and prove that the use of multiplier bootstrap inference is non-conservative under CARs. The auxiliary regression may be estimated parametrically, nonparametrically, or via regularization when the data are high-dimensional. Even when the auxiliary regression is misspecified, the proposed bootstrap inferential procedure still achieves the nominal rejection probability …

Endogenous Political Legitimacy: The Tudor Roots Of England’S Constitutional Governance, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This paper highlights the importance of endogenous changes in the foundations of legitimacy for political regimes. It focuses on the central role of legitimacy changes in the rise of constitutional monarchy in England. It first defines legitimacy and briefly elaborates a theoretical framework enabling a historical study of this unobservable variable. It proceeds to substantiate that the low-legitimacy, post-Reformation Tudor monarchs of the 16th century promoted Parliament to enhance their legitimacy, thereby changing the legislative process from the “Crown and Parliament” to the “Crown in Parliament” that still prevails in England.

Protecting Youth From Mexican Drug Cartel Recruitment: The Prospects Of Educational Interventions, Lisa Hochstetler

Lux et Fides: A Journal for Undergraduate Christian Scholars

This investigation considers the impact of Mexico’s War on Drugs since 2006 and the influence of widespread cartel networks on the youth population. As both victims and perpetrators of drug-related crime, the young individuals of Mexico are the center of this research. The goal of this investigation was to determine how education in Mexico’s grade schools could be leveraged to protect its youth from drug-related violence and cartel recruitment. Therefore, the study examines both the challenges suffered by the education system due to the Drug War and the prospects for educational interventions to strengthen and protect youth over and against …

They Shrank The Futures Contracts! Mini Futures Contracts: What They Are And How To Use Them, Fabio Mattos

Cornhusker Economics

Mini futures contracts (or e-mini, since they are traded electronically) were first developed in the late 1990s based on futures contracts that already existed. The main characteristic of mini contracts is that they represent a fraction of standard-size contracts. For example, the first mini contract was launched in 1997 and based on the S&P500 futures contract. The size of the standard futures contract is $250 times the value of the S&P500 index, while the size of the mini futures contract is $50 times the value of the S&P500 index. If the index is at 4,200 points, the total value of …

Correlated Equilibrium And Evolutionary Stability In 3-Player Rock-Paper-Scissors, William Grant

Department of Economics - Faculty Scholarship

In the game of rock-paper-scissors with three players, this paper identifies conditions for a correlated equilibrium that differs from the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and is evolutionarily stable. For this to occur, the correlation device attaches more probability to three-way ties and solo-winner outcomes than would result from the Nash equilibrium. The correlated equilibrium is evolutionarily stable because any mutant fares worse than a signal-following player when facing two players who follow their own correlated signals. The critical quality of the correlation device is to make this true both for potential mutants who would disobey their signal and instead choose …

Essays On Political Economy And Behavior, Seth Emblem

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three essays which focus on the intersection of political economy and behavioral economics. I am interested in understanding how people behave in politically adjacent areas so that we can find the policy interventions that can best address the issues that arise from these areas. To do so, I utilize incentivized survey instruments and laboratory experiments to study how people behave in these settings. In Chapter 1, I examine the question of how people respond to standard political surveys and whether these surveys reflect people’s genuine beliefs regarding factual political questions. Responses to standard political surveys suggest …

Economic Thought: A Biblical Perspective, Williams Kwasi Peprah, Lucile Sabas, Carmelita J. Troy, Quentin Sahly, Delynne Shepard

Adventist Human-Subject Researchers Association

The research contributes to the ongoing debate of capitalism or socialism as a Christian's economic thought. Following Jesus Christ's exemplary life, the research concludes that Jesus Christ is variously portrayed as a social reformer, revolutionary socialist and compassionate capitalist. Therefore, Christians must have the same economic thought.

Globalizing Investments: Enhancing Retail Investor Portfolios Through Cross-Asset International Diversification, Charlotte T. Kline

University Honors Theses

Diversification is frequently reiterated, but for the standard retail investor, the what, how, and why often slide between the cracks. Diversifying internationally appears even more seldom discussed. A wealth of research has been integrated throughout this paper to focus on the what, how, and why of foreign diversification, all from a retail investor's perspective. This synthesis provides a comprehensive background followed by a discussion of a variety of asset classes available for diversification and biases and factors that lead to these gaps in diversification. The findings were divided into two categories: possible asset classes favorable to international diversification and causes …

The Impact Of The "Whistle-To-Whistle" Ban On The Frequency And Placement Of Gambling Advertising On Uk Television, Ellen Mcgrane, Elizabeth Goyder, Rob Pryce, Matt Field

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Introduction:

There are currently no legally enforced restrictions on the broadcast time of gambling advertising on UK television. In August 2019, the Industry Group for Responsible Gambling (IGRG) introduced a voluntary policy which limited advertising around live sports, creating a “safe” window of 5 minutes either side of a match, known as the “Whistle-to-Whistle” period. This policy intended to protect young and vulnerable people from the widespread exposure to gambling adverts on television during pre-watershed (9pm) live sports games.

Methods:

This study will employ panel data statistical models to explore the change in pre-watershed gambling advertising around live sports, …

Can Sports Gambling Become The Fount Of Revenue Consistency?, Richard A. Mcgowan

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Critics of legalization of gambling maintain that gambling revenue is at best stagnate or will eventually fall as a source of revenue. The stagnation of Lottery proceeds and casino revenue as sources of revenue seemed validate this criticism. But a new source of gambling revenue has recently been championed, namely sports gambling. So, the question this paper will attempt to answer is: Can sports gambling produce consistent and growing revenue that are needed to sustain public policy initiatives?

The legalization of sports gambling in NJ occurred on June 11th, 2018 and the first bet was placed on June 14th. New …

The Effect Of Television Advertising On Gambling Behaviour: A Quasi-Experimental Study During The 2022 Qatar Fifa World Cup, Ellen Mcgrane, Rob Pryce, Matt Field, Elizabeth Goyder, Luke Wilson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Introduction:

The pervasiveness of gambling advertising and its relationship with football have been identified as areas of concern in the UK. Following the liberalisation of advertising laws in the 2005 Gambling Act, there has been increasing recognition of its public health impact. To date, there is a lack of evidence of the impact of advertising on behaviour in “real-world” settings.

Methods:

This study employs a natural experiment measuring the impact of television gambling advertising on the frequency of impulsive football bets placed during the World Cup. Longitudinal betting data collected from a sample of men (aged 18-45) will be …

Demographic And Population Change In Mountain West Cities And Suburbs, 2020 Census, Zachary Billot, Saha Salahi, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Demography

This fact sheet examines the five metro areas with populations exceeding one million in the Mountain West, drawing from the Brookings Institution report, “Today’s Suburbs are Symbolic of America’s Rising Diversity: A 2020 Census Portrait” by William Frey. Demographic data are included for both primary city and suburban portions for the major metros in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Utah.

Nebraska National Agri-Marketing Association (Nama) Is Back On Track, Ashton Humphreys, Rosalee A. Swartz

Cornhusker Economics

UNL’s National Agri-Marketing Association (NAMA) student organization is one of more than thirty student chapters across the U.S. and Canada. NAMA’s objective is to make students aware of the many career opportunities in agricultural marketing. Building strong connections between students and professionals in marketing, advertising, communications, promotion, sales, and public relations is the key to this objective. NAMA members also have opportunities to develop leadership and team-building skills through club activities and involvement. Two years of COVID created a leadership and experience gap for UNL NAMA. Officers from 2018-2019 had graduated. Monthly meetings were suspended for some time, followed by …

The Application Of Transactional Fairness To The Gambling Sector, Seamus Mcgowan, Adam Rivers

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The idea of ‘fairness’ in consumer protection has been discussed for a long time. However, more recently there has been a renewed focus on the use of unfair pricing practices and terms in consumer markets and regulators and lawmakers are responding. Practices which can be considered unfair often emerge as companies develop new and innovative ways to engage with consumers including offering different prices and / or terms to different sets of customers.

Being ‘fair and open’ is an important principle for gambling regulation. In that context, this paper focusses on fairness in gambling markets and seeks to develop a …

Know When To Hold’Em Unpacking The Determinants Of Table Player Win / Loss And The Elasticity Of Table House Advantage, Clayton Peister

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Know when to hold’em

Unpacking the determinants of table player win / loss and the elasticity of table house advantage

Overview

There is significant disagreement about the role of house advantage (HA) in player value. For instance, the operations team often seek to introduce games with high HA, under the assumption that marginal improvements in HA translates into higher house win. By contrast, many casino marketing professionals argue that higher HA only reduces playtime and that a player’s budget is generally fixed. Leveraging over 300m individual player decisions from a major online Asian operator, we explore the role of HA …

How’S It Going With The Cptpp?, Christine Mcdaniel

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

There is no doubt that the United States is losing out on market access. But one of the original goals of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was for a rules-based trading regime in the Pacific, namely rules not written by China. Thanks to Australia and Japan that seems to be happening even with the U.S. no longer at the helm.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership or the awkwardly nicknamed CPTPP is a Pacific trading bloc that consists of 11 countries, spanning the Pacific Rim, and includes Malaysia and Chile. The member countries represent 13% of world GDP. Once the UK …

Reducing Recycling Contamination Using An Information Nudge, Mimi Rivette

LSU Master's Theses

Recycling contamination is a central challenge to recycling programs but is infrequently studied due to the difficulty of measuring contents and the inconvenience of sorting through recycling bags by hand. We conducted two simultaneous experiments to address both the issue of recycling contamination and the infrequency of its study at Louisiana State University in Fall 2021. We implemented two signage treatments, the first explicitly instructing passersby not to recycle a short list of common recycling contaminants, including Styrofoam, food wrappers, plastic bags, and face masks, and the second generally encouraging recycling but excluding specific instructions on what to recycle. To …

Reproductive Inequality In Humans And Other Mammals, Cody T. Ross, Paul L. Hooper, Jennifer E. Smith, Adrian V. Jaeggi, Eric Alden Smith, Sergey Gavrilets, Fatema Tuz Zohora, John Ziker, Dimitris Xygalatas, Emily E. Wroblewski, Brian Wood, Bruce Winterhalder, Kai P. Willführ, Aiyana K. Willard, Kara Walker, Christopher Von Rueden, Eckart Voland, Claudia Valeggia, Bapu Vaitla, Samuel Urlacher, Mary Towner, Chun-Yi Sum, Lawrence S. Sugiyama, Karen B. Strier, Kathrine Starkweather, Daniel Major-Smith, Mary Shenk, Rebecca Sear, Edmond Seabright, Ryan Schacht, Brooke Scelza, Shane Scaggs, Jonathan Salerno, Caissa Revilla-Minaya, Daniel Redhead, Anne Pusey, Benjamin Grant Purzycki, Eleanor A. Power, Anne Pisor, Jenni Pettay, Susan Perry, Abigail E. Page, Luis Pacheco-Cobos, Kathryn Oths, Seung-Yun Oh, David Nolin, Daniel Nettle, Cristina Moya, Andrea Bamberg Migliano, Karl J. Mertens, Rita A. Mcnamara, Richard Mcelreath, Siobhan Mattison, Eric Massengill, Frank Marlowe, Felicia Madimenos, Shane Macfarlan, Virpi Lummaa, Roberto Lizarralde, Ruizhe Liu, Melissa A. Liebert, Sheina Lew-Levy, Paul Leslie, Joseph Lanning, Karen Kramer, Jeremy Koster, Hillard S. Kaplan, Bayarsaikhan Jamsranjav, A. Magdalena Hurttado, Kim Hill, Barry Hewlett, Samili Helle, Thomas Headland, Janet Headland, Michael Gurven, Gianluca Grimalda, Russell Greaves, Christopher D. Golden, Irene Godoy, Mhairi Gibson, Claire El Mouden, Mark Dyble, Patricia Draper, Sean Downey, Angelina L. Demarco, Helen Elizabeth Davis, Stefani Crabtree, Carmen Cortez, Heidi Colleran, Emma Cohen, Gregory Clark, Julia Clark, Mark A. Caudell, Chelsea E. Carminito, John Bunce, Adam Boyette, Samuel Bowles, Tami Blumenfield, Bret Beheim, Stephen Beckerman, Quentin Atkinson, Coren Apicella, Nurul Alam, Monique Borgerhoff Mulder

ESI Publications

To address claims of human exceptionalism, we determine where humans fit within the greater mammalian distribution of reproductive inequality. We show that humans exhibit lower reproductive skew (i.e., inequality in the number of surviving offspring) among males and smaller sex differences in reproductive skew than most other mammals, while nevertheless falling within the mammalian range. Additionally, female reproductive skew is higher in polygynous human populations than in polygynous nonhumans mammals on average. This patterning of skew can be attributed in part to the prevalence of monogamy in humans compared to the predominance of polygyny in nonhuman mammals, to the limited …