Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A Practitioner’S Guide To Panel Data Quantile Regression, Antonio F. Galvao, Carlos Lamarche

Economics Faculty Publications

Quantile regression for panel data has become a common model of interest for econometricians and statisticians. The theoretical literature has addressed important questions, including identification, estimation, and statistical inference. Although recent advances have enabled practitioners to estimate flexible models under a wide range of assumptions, practical issues have not been fully addressed. In this paper, we offer a guide to empirical practice intended to help applied researchers navigate the challenges of estimation and inference for panel quantile models. We also present a series of practical recommendations and illustrations, emphasizing both “why” and the “how” to help researchers with the implementation …

Wedges: A Microeconomic Perspective On Misallocation, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, Danial Lashkari, Eric Verhoogen

Discussion Papers

This chapter takes stock of what has been learned from the recent micro-development literature about wedges—mechanisms generating dispersion in marginal revenue products of factors across firms, which are commonly interpreted as indicators of misallocation. We present a general theoretical framework that allows us to consider several different types of wedges simultaneously. We argue that it is important to distinguish between between technological wedges, which are present even in the efficient allocation that would be chosen by the social planner, and distortionary wedges, which are present in market equilibrium but not the social planner's allocation. Not all wedges, as we have …

Economic Development And The Environment, Kelsey Jack, Nicholas Ryan

Discussion Papers

Economic development relies on and transforms the environment. The transformation is evident in the poor environmental quality in many developing countries. For example, air quality in Southeast Asia is three times worse than in the United States, in sub-Saharan Africa four times worse and in South Asia more than six times worse. We model how environmental quality affects health, productivity and well-being and how individuals privately adapt to environmental hazards. We also model how collective action and formal regulation contribute to environmental quality. We draw three main findings from a review of empirical research on these mechanisms. First, individual adaptation …

Skipping The Factory: Service-Led Growth And Structural Transformation In The Developing World, Michael Peters, Youdon Zhang, Fabrizio Zilibotti

Discussion Papers

In today’s developing world, many economies appear to bypass industrialization and transition directly from agriculture to services. The largest rise in service employment has occurred in non-tradable consumer services, such as retail and hospitality, especially in urban areas, where many cities resemble consumer hubs built around local demand. These patterns of growth raise fundamental questions: Can service-led growth sustain improvements in living standards over time? Is service-led growth inherently biased toward affluent urban consumers? What role should policy play? To address these questions, we propose a parsimonious general equilibrium framework that incorporates non-homothetic preferences and locally non-tradable consumer services in …

An Examination Of Remittance Inflow Variation In Net-Emigration Countries, Andrew Rizko

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the structural and institutional determinants of remittance inflows in a panel of 40 net-emigration countries from 2000 to 2024. By restricting the sample to countries with negative average net migration, the analysis holds migration pressure constant and isolates the role of domestic conditions in explaining cross-country variation in remittance dependence. Using fixed effects and correlated random effects (Mundlak) estimators, I find that labor force participation is the most robust within-country determinant: a one percentage point increase is associated with approximately a 2.3 percent decline in remittance inflows, consistent with remittances functioning as a structural need in contexts …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

Do Variations In State Consultation Programs Affect Construction Fatality Rates?, Wayne B. Gray

Economics

Background: Along with its enforcement program, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has a voluntary consultation program that responds to requests from firms to identify hazards at their workplaces. We studied the effects of this program on fatal work injuries in the construction industry. Methods: We first examined differences across states in their consultation programs using data from 2016 through 2022, during which time 47,418 consultation visits were conducted in construction. These included differences in frequency of consultation visits at construction firms, the average number of hazards identified per visit, and the scope of those visits. We then used …

International Cocoa Trading Arrangements Between Industrialised And Developing Countries 1951–1999: A Structural Gravity Analysis, John Brown, Xenia Matschke, Juan René Rojas Rodríguez

Economics

Using a state-of-the-art structural gravity model, we investigate the impact of various (post-)colonial cocoa trading arrangements on the cocoa trade between developing cocoa producer countries and rich industrial cocoa consumer nations in the time period 1951–1999. We find that in particular the trading arrangements of the European (Economic) Community (EEC/EC), such as the Association, Yaoundé and Lomé Agreements, as well as the UNCTAD International Cocoa Agreement, had a measurable positive impact on cocoa trade flows, in contrast to the British Commonwealth partnership or the GATT Generalised System of Preferences. In particular, the Yaoundé Agreement not only increased the trade between …

The Low Human Rights Advantage And The Failure Of Globalization: The Challenge Of China Inc., Shaomin Li

Management Faculty Publications

Purpose

We develop a framework of the low human rights advantage – labor repression, state discretionary expropriation and total control – that reduces factor costs and enables coordinated resource mobilization. These mechanisms generate economic advantage only when combined with access to global markets, which provide demand, capital and technology. By leveraging this low human rights advantage, the Chinese state has transformed China into a giant corporation that combines the agility of a firm with the resources of a nation, thereby reshaping global competition. Economic integration without corresponding political integration is a major contributor to the failure of the current wave …

Unlocking Organizational Support Through Psychological Empowerment: Identification And Test Of Transformational Leadership As A Catalyst Of Perceived Organizational Support, Ryan L. Klinger, Nathapon Siangchokyoo, Tipat Sottiwan

Management Faculty Publications

Organizational support theory (OST) explains how employees develop and respond to beliefs about their organization, with perceived organizational support (POS) representing a central construct within this framework. Integrating psychological empowerment theory, we examine an intrinsic motivational pathway through which POS relates to employee in-role performance and identify transformational leadership as a contextual catalyst that may strengthen this process. We test a multilevel moderated mediation model using multisource and multi-time data from 217 employees and 41 supervisors. Results indicate that POS is positively related to in-role performance through the psychological empowerment dimensions of competence and self-determination. Moreover, transformational leadership strengthens the …

Human Capital And Development, Philippe Aghion, Ingvild Almås, Costas Meghir

Discussion Papers

Human capital is central to efforts to promote growth, convergence, and the elimination of poverty. Drawing on the seminal macroeconomic frameworks by Nelson-Phelps, Lucas and subsequent developments, alongside macro and microeconomic evidence, we examine the role of human capital in driving innovation and growth. We highlight how different types of human capital, characterized by education level, matter in different stages of development. Despite documented increases in years of schooling, the world’s poorest regions still see stagnating outcomes in learning and education quality, potentially creating poverty traps where investments in neither physical nor human capital materialize. We discuss obstacles to human …

Mechanisms Driving Disparities In Income Mobility Across The Income Distribution, Joe Larkins

Honors Theses

This study examines intergenerational income persistence across the income distribution, testing whether mechanisms driving inequality differ between families in the top and bottom halves of the income distribution. Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), a nationally representative longitudinal survey of 8th grade students and their parents, this research estimates an interaction model comparing parental income effects for children in advantaged versus disadvantaged economic circumstances. The analysis reveals that a $1,000 increase in parental income yields eight times greater income gains for children in the bottom half of the distribution compared to those in the top …

Esg Risk And Agricultural Commodity Integration, Alper Gormus, Yoav Wachsman, Elif Gormus

Finance and Economics

This study investigates how major agricultural commodities interact with diversified U.S. equity funds, sorted by their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risk exposure. Using daily Morningstar data on 880 U.S. equity mutual funds, we construct portfolios representing high- and low-ESG-risk equities and examine their linkages with prices for eight agricultural commodities. Applying Fourier-augmented Toda–Yamamoto VAR and LM-GARCH models that accommodate both abrupt and gradual structural breaks, we document clear heterogeneity across ESG risk segments. Low-ESG-risk portfolios exhibit minimal price and volatility spillovers from agricultural commodities, whereas high-ESG-risk portfolios display strong and often bidirectional transmissions—particularly for coffee, corn, cotton, livestock, and …

Examining The Results Of Revolutions In The Third World: A Case Study Of The Iranian, Libyan, And Nicaraguan Revolutions, Noah A. Mohammedelamien

Honors Undergraduate Theses

This thesis examines the post-revolutionary trajectories of Libya, Iran, and Nicaragua to explain why some Third World revolutionary projects preserve and use elements of their founding ideology while others fragment, personalize, or diffuse over time. Rather than focusing on the causes of revolution alone, it analyzes the durability of religious-socialist ideological continuity after revolutionary upheaval. Using a (MDSD) comparative historical and institutional approach grounded in primary and secondary sources, the study evaluates five key dimensions across the cases: religious-socialist ideological fusion, religious elite loyalty, popular religious mobilization, institutional embedding of ideology, and external pressure. The findings suggest ideological continuity is …

Barriers To Immunity: Understanding Covid-19 Vaccine Uptake In Africa, Emilia Blechschmidt

Honors Theses

This thesis examines the factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine uptake across African countries, with a focus on structural, informational, and behavioral barriers to immunization. Drawing on cross-country data, the study analyzes how access to transportation, reliable information, and healthcare resources shape vaccination rates, alongside the effect of demographics and institutional factors in shaping individual perceptions of risk and vaccine safety.

The findings emphasize that the broader strength and preparedness of national health systems strongly influence vaccine uptake. Countries that demonstrated higher coverage of routine childhood immunizations, such as polio and hepatitis B, also tended to perform better in COVID-19 uptake efficiency …

Interpreting Legal Standards Of Proof: An Experimental Study Of Probabilistic Decision-Making, Hayley Leopold

Honors Theses

Legal standards of proof play a central role in structuring decision-making under uncertainty, yet they are typically communicated using qualitative language rather than precise probabilities. This raises an important question: how do individuals interpret and apply these standards when making decisions based on probabilistic evidence? This study examines whether individuals apply legal standards of proof in a manner consistent with their commonly associated probabilistic thresholds, and whether quantification and incentives improve alignment with normative decision-making.

To address these questions, I conducted a controlled behavioral experiment in which participants made legal-style decisions under uncertainty. Participants were assigned roles in a simplified …

Nssr Student Admission And Review, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes,

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Calculations regarding the costs of PhD students over several years [Handwritten notes].

• New School for Social Research. (n.d.). External funding for graduate study, NSSR: Annual and total costs per PhD student [Document].

Education And The Maternal Childcare Gap: Evidence From The Uk Covid-19 Pandemic, Lara Bakhaya

Honors Theses

This paper examines whether college education shapes working mothers’ access to remote work, flexible working, and childcare hours in the United Kingdom, and whether COVID-19 school closures amplified these inequalities. Using data from the UK Time Use Survey (2016–2021), a repeated cross-sectional diary dataset spanning the pre-pandemic period and five COVID-19 waves, this paper estimates weighted logistic and ordinary least squares regressions on a sample of married or cohabiting, employed mothers. School closures serve as a natural experiment, providing an exogenous shock to caregiving demands that affected all mothers simultaneously regardless of education level. College education significantly predicted working from …

Spillover Effects Of Medicare Advantage On Fee-For-Service Post-Acute Care Spending, Nyel Bangash

Honors Theses

Does the growth of Medicare Advantage reduce fee-for-service post-acute care spending through practice-pattern spillovers, or do observed spending differences primarily reflect favorable selection? Using a county-level panel of roughly 2,700 counties (2014–2023) and a two-way fixed effects specification, I find that a one percentage-point increase in MA penetration is associated with $9.54 less per-capita standardized FFS spending. Spending per episode falls while participation rates remain stable, consistent with practice-pattern spillovers rather than compositional changes from selection. Welfare indicators from County Health Rankings, CDC PLACES, and CMS Care Compare show no evidence that spending reductions harm health or care quality. The …

The Market Signal Of Climate Risk: Examining Disaster-Linked Insurance Costs And Home Values, Anika Donohue

Honors Theses

As natural disasters increase in frequency, the resulting rise in insurance premiums threatens a systemic housing affordability crisis across the United States. Leveraging a unique private insurance market dataset, this paper investigates the capitalization of rising premiums into home values and the resulting impact on housing affordability and underinsurance levels. Focusing on the impacts of Hurricane Florence (2018) in North Carolina, I employ a Difference-in-Differences framework to separately analyze the impacts of storm severity on property values and insurance premiums. I find that while property values decrease in proportion to storm severity, functioning as a primary risk signal, insurance premiums …

Mnes Vs. Local Firms’ Resilience To Global Shocks: Evidence From The 2008 Financial Crisis And Covid-19, Yijie Wang

Honors Theses

This thesis examines whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) are more resilient than domestic firms during major global shocks, using the 2008 Financial Crisis and COVID-19 as case studies. Although MNEs may benefit from diversification, internal capital markets, and foreign linkages, they may also face greater exposure to global demand shrinkage and supplychain disruption.

Using Compustat North America firm-level panel data from WRDS, this study analyzes publicly listed U.S. and Canadian firms across 2007–2013 and 2018–2024. Firm resilience is measured through net sales, net income, and gross profit using a two-way fixed effects panel model. Multinational status is identified through two different …

From Sentiment And Risk To Trade: A Country-Level Study On Geopolitical Trade Effects, Seung Heo

Publications and Research

Can geopolitical risk reshape international trade? I construct directed, monthly measures of bilateral geopolitical risk and its associated sentiment from approximately 5.1 million news articles in the GDELT Event Database, and estimate their effect on trade among eight Asia-Pacific economies at the HS2 product level over 2015--2025, using Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood gravity local projections with high-dimensional fixed effects. Pooled across countries, rising risk produces an immediate expansion of trade led by verbal threats and by news tone orthogonal to event content, rather than by material acts, indicating that how a conflict is reported can move trade before the conflict materializes. A …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 10, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Essays On Election, Bianca Appel Kranzler

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on electoral accountability at the local and national levels. The first chapter focuses on judicial elections in Houston, while the last two chapters forecast the 2024 national election. This first chapter examines whether changes in local crime rates influence voter behavior in partisan judicial elections. Using precinct-level crime and election data from Houston, Texas, this study tests whether a quarterly increase in crime raises the probability that a voting precinct flips from a Democratic to a Republican majority in local district judge elections. A two-way fixed-effects model with precinct and year fixed effects is estimated across seven …

Bail Reform, Large Language Model Risk And Reasoning, William Wyatt

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation contains three studies. Each asks how rules or language change the choices people and machines make when outcomes are uncertain. The first study, written with Kiran John, evaluates California’s 2020 cashless bail reform. We use propensity score matching on arrestee records from the windows before and after implementation, and we test whether the shift away from cash bail produced any effect on subsequent offending. It did not. Matched comparisons yield small, statistically insignificant differences across every window we examined. That null result cuts against both sides of the public argument. The reform did not drive a spike in …

Structural And Intersectional Factors In Full Retirement: Insights For Black Men, Waleed Sami

Adultspan Journal

This interview centers the full retirement experience of Anthony Crawford. This perspective highlights the complex interplay between social determinants, intersectional identity, the psychology of working, and social class/social mobility, as key factors in his lived experiences. The relationship between structural factors and interpersonal factors continues to be a growth edge in counseling, as counselors frequently report lack of knowledge or comfort in their relationship with counseling. This interview seeks to fill the gap and demonstrate a concrete way to develop clinical insights. The full interview is transcribed and provided, along with practical and research implications for counselors working with populations …

But Who Are The Victims? Reassessing The 568 Higher Education Cartel, James V. Koch

Economics Faculty Publications

Thirty prestigious independent American institutions of higher education were at some time members of the 568 higher education group (often labeled a cartel). Seventeen of them were sued by the U.S. Government and representative students who alleged that their meetings and deliberations resulted in collusion that caused students to pay higher prices. Twelve of the seventeen institutions subsequently settled their cases and by 2024 collectively had paid $284 million to do so. However, an inspection of these institutions' pricing reveals that the median 568 Group institution lowered its average real net annual cost to its undergraduate students by 19.07% between …

The Effect Of The Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion On The Risk Of Hospital Closure And Adolescent Hpv Immunization In Rural Counties, Juliette Des Rosiers

Scripps Senior Theses

From 2005 to 2025, over 200 rural hospitals shut their doors, often citing increased operational costs, staffing shortages, low patient volume, regulatory barriers, financial challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, and uncompensated care as common contributors to the closures. Rural patients are often referred by their primary care physician to a hospital for regular immunizations, since smaller clinics have less capacity to provide immunizations due to a shortage of pediatricians and limited vaccine stock. A crucial vaccine that is not required by schools and underutilized in rural areas is that against human papillomavirus (HPV), a virus that infects cutaneous and …

Good Food In The Neighborhood: Localizing Nutritious Food Access, Joseph Pool

Honors Program Theses

Given contemporary changes to federal budget priorities and recent challenges to federal food access funding, this research explores the potential benefits of entrusting state-level and municipal-level policymakers with food access policy. More specifically, this research suggests that “localizing” food access has the unique benefit of not just addressing the affordability of food, but the physical accessibility of it. As observed in the previous literature and expounded upon here, food provisioning requires consideration of nutrition, physical accessibility, and financial affordability. Programs that only address one of these priorities fail to adequately help people receive the food they need. Through policy analysis …

Improving Maternal Health: Investigating The Early Impacts Of Medicaid Coverage Of Doulas In Oregon, Miriam Akhmetshin

Scripps Senior Theses

While the U.S. spends more per-capita than any country on healthcare, we experience the worst maternal health outcomes of high-income nations. In addition to hefty healthcare bills, an overwhelming majority of mothers experience pregnancy-related health issues that decrease productivity and utility. Thus, it is critical to research cost-effective solutions that can improve maternal health and promote equitable outcomes. Doulas are trained non-medical professionals who support mothers and families before, during and after birth. As a growing body of medical literature points to the role of doulas in decreasing costly medical interventions, insurance companies have begun covering their services. In 2014, …