Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Promises And Expectations, Florian Ederer, Alexander Stremitzer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We investigate why people keep their promises in the absence of external enforcement mechanisms and reputational effects. In a controlled laboratory experiment we show that exogenous variation of second-order expectations (promisors’ expectations about promisees’ expectations that the promise will be kept) leads to a significant change in promisor behavior. We provide clean evidence that a promisor’s aversion to disappointing a promisee’s expectation leads her to keep her promise. We propose a simple theory of lexicographic promise keeping that is supported by our results and nests the findings of previous contributions as special cases.

The Effect Of Public Debt On Growth In Multiple Regimes, Andros Kourtellos, Thanasis Stengos, Chih Ming Tan

Economics & Finance Faculty Publications

We employ a structural threshold regression methodology to investigate the heterogeneous effects of debt on growth using public debt as a threshold variable as well as several other plausible variables. Our methodology allows us to address parameter heterogeneity that characterizes cross-country growth data and at the same time account for endogeneity. We find strong evidence for threshold effects based on democracy, which implies that higher public debt results in lower growth for countries in the Low-Democracy regime. Our results are consistent with the presence of parameter heterogeneity in the cross-country growth process due to fundamental determinants of economic growth proposed …

Mountain Monitor - 3rd Quarter 2013, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

The quarter’s Mountain Monitor marks the four-year anniversary of Brookings Mountain West's quarterly tracking of the uneven pace of recovery across the major metro areas of the Intermountain West and it finds that, although the region continues to outperform the national economy the rate of recovery slowed moderately in the region’s metro areas.

As a group, Mountain region metro areas advanced on all four indicators of economic recovery tracked by the Monitor—employment, output, unemployment, and house prices—but their progress was more restrained in the third quarter of 2013 than it was in the second.

Beneath the regional headline of moderating …

Estonia's Post-Soviet Agricultural Reforms: Lessons For Cuba, Mario A. Gonzalez-Corzo

Publications and Research

No abstract provided.

Testing For Indirect Reciprocity In Charitable Activities, Christine Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a test of indirect reciprocity using US data on charitable activities in terms of both time and money. We find that expecting help from friends or relatives in the future positively affects the probability and the amount of charitable activities performed.

Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a novel mechanism for identifying and estimating latent group structures in panel data using penalized regression techniques. We focus on linear models where the slope parameters are heterogeneous across groups but homogenous within a group and the group membership is unknown. Two approaches are considered -- penalized least squares (PLS) for models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) for models with endogeneity. In both cases we develop a new variant of Lasso called classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) that serves to shrink individual coefficients to the unknown group-specific coefficients. C-Lasso achieves simultaneous classification and consistent estimation in a single …

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation For Spatial Panel Data Regressions, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article considers quasi-maximum likelihood estimations (QMLE) for two spatial panel data regression models: mixed effects model with spatial errors and transformed mixed effects model (where response and covariates are transformed) with spatial errors. One aim of transformation is to normalize the data, thus the transformed models are more robust with respect to the normality assumption compared with the standard ones. QMLE method provides additional protection against violation of normality assumption. Asymptotic properties of the QMLEs are investigated. Numerical illustrations are provided.

Predictive Regression Under Various Degrees Of Persistence And Robust Long-Horizon Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ji Hyung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper proposes a novel inference procedure for long-horizon predictive regression with persistent regressors, allowing the autoregressive roots to lie in a wide vicinity of unity. The invalidity of conventional tests when regressors are persistent has led to a large literature dealing with inference in predictive regressions with local to unity regressors. Magdalinos and Phillips (2009b) recently developed a new framework of extended IV procedures (IVX) that enables robtist chi-square testing for a wider class of persistent regressors. We extend this robust procedure to an even wider parameter space in the vicinity of unity and apply the methods to long-horizon …

Information, Interdependence, And Interaction: Where Does The Volatility Come From?, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze a class of games with interdependent values and linear best responses. The payoff uncertainty is described by a multivariate normal distribution that includes the pure common and pure private value environment as special cases. We characterize the set of joint distributions over actions and states that can arise as Bayes Nash equilibrium distributions under any multivariate normally distributed signals about the payoff states. We characterize maximum aggregate volatility for a given distribution of the payoff states. We show that the maximal aggregate volatility is attained in a noise-free equilibrium in which the agents confound idiosyncratic and common components …

Uncertain Growth And The Value Of The Future, Jaume Masoliver, Miquel Montero, John Geanakoplos, J. Doyne Farmer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

For environmental problems such as global warming future costs must be balanced against present costs. This is traditionally done using an exponential function with a constant discount rate, which reduces the present value of future costs. The result is highly sensitive to the choice of discount rate and has generated a major controversy as to the urgency for immediate action. We study analytically several standard interest rate models from finance and compare their properties to empirical data. From historical time series for nominal interest rates and inflation covering 14 countries over hundreds of years, we find that extended periods of …

Promises And Expectations, Florian Ederer, Alexander Stremitzer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We investigate why people keep their promises in the absence of external enforcement mechanisms and reputational effects. In a controlled laboratory experiment we show that exogenous variation of second-order expectations (promisors’ expectations about promisees’ expectations) leads to a significant change in promisor behavior. We provide evidence that a promisor’s aversion to disappointing a promisee’s expectation leads her to behave more generously. We propose and estimate a simple model of conditional guilt aversion that is supported by our results and nests the findings of previous contributions as special cases.

Truthful Equilibria In Dynamic Bayesian Games, Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi, Nicolas Vieille

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper characterizes an equilibrium payoff subset for Markovian games with private information as discounting vanishes. Monitoring is imperfect, transitions may depend on actions, types be correlated and values interdependent. The focus is on equilibria in which players report truthfully. The characterization generalizes that for repeated games, reducing the analysis to static Bayesian games with transfers. With correlated types, results from mechanism design apply, yielding a folk theorem. With independent private values, the restriction to truthful equilibria is without loss, except for the punishment level; if players withhold their information during punishment-like phases, a “folk” theorem obtains also.

Truthful Equilibria In Dynamic Bayesian Games, Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi, Nicolas Vieille

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper characterizes an equilibrium payoff subset for dynamic Bayesian games as discounting vanishes. Monitoring is imperfect, transitions may depend on actions, types may be correlated and values may be interdependent. The focus is on equilibria in which players report truthfully. The characterization generalizes that for repeated games, reducing the analysis to static Bayesian games with transfers. With independent private values, the restriction to truthful equilibria is without loss, except for the punishment level; if players withhold their information during punishment-like phases, a folk theorem obtains.

Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This note proposes a simple, more precise, necessary condition for symmetry breaking in Matsuyama (Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations, Econometrica, 2004 ), i.e., the positive interest rate response to income changes, which essentially arises from the assumptions of financial frictions and minimum investment size requirement of individual projects. This condition also holds under the more general settings. Thus, this note o ers an empirically testable hypothesis, i.e., Matsuyama's symmetry breaking is more likely, if the interest rate response to income changes is positive and sufficiently large.

The Impact Of Interstate Highways On Land Use Conversion, Chris Mothorpe, Andrew Hanson, Kurt Schnier

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Between 1945 and 2007, the United States lost 19.3 % of its agricultural land. Over the same time period, the construction of the 42,500 mile interstate highway system lowered transportation costs and opened large tracts of land for development. This paper assesses the impact of the interstate highway system on agricultural land loss in Georgia and uses the empirical estimates to simulate agricultural land loss resulting from the construction of additional interstate highways. Using a historical data set of agricultural land and interstate highway mileage, empirical estimates indicate that each additional mile of interstate highway reduces agricultural land by 468 …

More Trouble For The New York State Education Finance System, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program And Food Insecurity, Christian Gregory, Matthew P. Rabbitt, David C. Ribar

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

This chapter reviews recent theory and empirical evidence regarding the effect of SNAP on food insecurity and replicates the modelling strategies used in the empirical literature. The authors find that recent evidence suggesting an ameliorative effect of SNAP on food insecurity may not be robust to specification choice or data. Most specifications mirror the existing literature in finding a positive association of food insecurity with SNAP participation. Two-stage least squares and control function methods do show that SNAP reduces food insecurity, but effects are not consistent across sub-populations and are not always statistically significant.

Testing Homogeneity In Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Qihui Chen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a residual-based LM test for slope homogeneity in large dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects. We first run the panel regression under the null to obtain the restricted residuals, and then use them to construct our LM test statistic. We show that after being appropriately centered and scaled, our test statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under the null and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. The asymptotic distributional theories are established under fairly general conditions which allow for both lagged dependent variables and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form by relying on the concept of conditional …

Do Market Incentives Crowd Out Charitable Giving?, Cary Deck, Erik O. Kimbrough

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

Donations and volunteerism can be conceived as market transactions with a zero explicit price. However, evidence suggests people may not view zero as just another price when it comes to pro-social behavior. Thus, while markets might be expected to increase the supply of assets available to those in need, some worry such financial incentives will crowd out altruistic giving. This paper reports laboratory experiments directly investigating the degree to which market incentives crowd out large, discrete charitable donations in a setting related to deceased organ donation. The results suggest markets increase the supply of assets available to those in need. …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2013, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Recession Depression: Mental Health Effects Of The 2008 Stock Market Crash, Melissa Mcinerney, Jennifer M. Mellor, Lauren H. Nicholas

Arts & Sciences Articles

Do sudden, large wealth losses affect mental health? We use exogenous variation in the interview dates of the 2008 Health and Retirement Study to assess the impact of large wealth losses on mental health among older U.S. adults. We compare cross-wave changes in wealth and mental health for respondents interviewed before and after the October 2008 stock market crash. We find that the crash reduced wealth and increased feelings of depression and use of antidepressant drugs, and that these effects were largest among respondents with high levels of stock holdings prior to the crash. These results suggest that sudden wealth …

A Case For Banking Oversight Reform In Crisis Mitigation, J. Barrow, S. Smalt

Faculty and Research Publications

This paper reviews the key weaknesses in the banking system related to the 2007 global financial crisis and finds supervisory oversight and accountability underrepresented or missing in recommended solutions although they are a critical contributor to the problem. The paper purports: (1) focusing on the fundamental factors that attribute to the vulnerability of the banking system is a key component of a model for the mitigation of a financial crisis and; (2) the factors are interrelated; therefore, the model should be holistic. The analysis results in an integrative blueprint and includes a simple case study application. The findings of the …

Soros’S Reflexivity Concept In A Complex World: Cauchy Distributions, Rational Expectations, And Rational Addiction, John B. Davis

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

George Soros makes an important analytical contribution to understanding the concept of reflexivity in social science by explaining reflexivity in terms of how his cognitive and manipulative causal functions are connected to one another by a pair of feedback loops (Soros, 2013). Fallibility, reflexivity and the human uncertainty principle. Here I put aside the issue of how the natural sciences and social sciences are related, an issue he discusses, and focus on how his thinking applies in economics. I argue that standard economics assumes a ‘classical’ view of the world in which knowledge and action are independent, but that we …

Introduction To The Economics Of Social Institutions, John B. Davis, Asimina Christoforou

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This volume includes thirty-six important contributions to the economics of social institutions by leading figures in the history of the field. Its nine Parts are: Early Contributions, Methodological and Conceptual Issues, Old Institutionalism, New Institutionalism, Social Costs, Growth and Development, Institutions and Change, Institutions and Organizations, and The Third Sphere of the Economy and Institutions. This set of topics provides a comprehensive review of the origins and development of the economics of social institutions. It addresses the main theoretical and policy concerns that have occupied contributors to the approach. The economics of social institutions has a been well-established research program …

Health Information And Social Security Entitlements, Perry Singleton

Center for Policy Research

This study examines whether new health information, obtained through medical screening, affects entitlements to Social Security benefits. Random assignment of information is derived from a unique feature of the Continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. To examine the effect of information on entitlements, the survey data are matched to administrative data from the Social Security Administration. The results suggest that new health information leads to delayed entitlements, particularly among workers near the early retirement age.

Developing, Refining, And Validating A Survey To Measure Stereotypes And Biases That Women Face In Industry, Erin D. Webb

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Almost any woman who has worked in a male dominated industry has faced a gender stereotype or bias of some type. Some of these women have even developed coping mechanisms to counteract these biases and make day-to-day interactions at work tolerable. Gathering information to reveal these stereotypes and biases can pose a distinctive challenge. Many women do not want to reveal the challenges that they have faced in their careers, and the vastness of types of challenges makes asking the correct questions very difficult. Through testing, this study has developed a valid data collection instrument that can be used to …

Hedonic Housing Prices In Paris: An Unbalanced Spatial Lag Pseudo-Panel Model With Nested Random Effects, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Jean-Michel Etienne

Center for Policy Research

This paper estimates a hedonic housing model based on flats sold in the city of Paris over the period 1990-2003. This is done using maximum likelihood estimation taking into account the nested structure of the data. Paris is historically divided into 20 arrondissements, each divided into four quartiers (quarters), which in turn contain between 15 and 169 blocks (îlot, in French) per quartier. This is an unbalanced pseudo-panel data containing 156,896 transactions. Despite the richness of the data, many neighborhood characteristics are not observed, and we attempt to capture these neighborhood spill-over effects using a spatial lag model. Using Likelihood …

A State Space Model Approach To Integrated Covariance Matrix Estimation With High Frequency Data, Cheng Liu, Cheng Yong Tang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We consider a state space model approach forhigh frequency financial data analysis. An expectationmaximization(EM) algorithm is developed for estimatingthe integrated covariance matrix of the assets. The statespace model with the EM algorithm can handle noisy financialdata with correlated microstructure noises. Difficultydue to asynchronous and irregularly spaced trading data ofmultiple assets can be naturally overcome by consideringthe problem in a scenario with missing data. Since the statespace model approach requires no data synchronization, norecord in the financial data is deleted so that it efficientlyincorporates information from all observations. Empiricaldata analysis supports the general specification of the statespace model, and simulations confirm …

South-South Relations And The English School Of International Relations: Chinese And Brazilian Ideas And Involvement In Sub-Saharan Africa, Anthony Petros Spanakos, Joseph Marques

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The rise of large developing countries has led to considerable discussions of re-balancing global relations and giving greater priority to understanding South-South relations. This paper, in exploring the central ideas of Chinese and Brazilian foreign policy and the behavior of these two rising Southern countries toward Sub-Saharan Africa, argues that the English School of International Relations is well suited to understanding the intentions and actions that characterize South-South relations.

Anticompetitive Patent Settlements And The Supreme Court's Actavis Decision, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

All Faculty Scholarship

In FTC v. Actavis the Supreme Court held that settlement of a patent infringement suit in which the patentee of a branded pharmaceutical drug pays a generic infringer to stay out of the market may be illegal under the antitrust laws. Justice Breyer's majority opinion was surprisingly broad, in two critical senses. First, he spoke with a generality that reached far beyond the pharmaceutical generic drug disputes that have provoked numerous pay-for-delay settlements.

Second was the aggressive approach that the Court chose. The obvious alternatives were the rule that prevailed in most Circuits, that any settlement is immune from antitrust …