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Articles 31 - 60 of 339
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Information, Intermediaries, And International Migration, Samuel Bazzi, Lisa Cameron, Simone Schaner, Firman Witoelar
Information, Intermediaries, And International Migration, Samuel Bazzi, Lisa Cameron, Simone Schaner, Firman Witoelar
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Job seekers face substantial information frictions, especially in international labor markets where intermediaries match prospective migrants with overseas employers. We conducted a randomized trial in Indonesia to explore how information about intermediary quality shapes migration outcomes. Holding access to information about the return to choosing a high-quality intermediary constant, intermediary-specific quality disclosure reduces the migration rate, cutting use of low-quality providers. Workers who do migrate receive better pre-departure preparation and have improved experiences abroad, despite no change in occupation or destination. These results are not driven by changes in beliefs about average provider quality or the return to migration. Nor …
Centering Work: Integration And Diffusion Of Workforce Development Within The U.S. Manufacturing Extension Network, Nichola Lowe, Greg Schrock, Matthew D. Wilson, Rumana Rabbani, Allison Forbes
Centering Work: Integration And Diffusion Of Workforce Development Within The U.S. Manufacturing Extension Network, Nichola Lowe, Greg Schrock, Matthew D. Wilson, Rumana Rabbani, Allison Forbes
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
As the U.S. economy rebounds from the COVID-19 pandemic, strategies that promote long-term transformation toward high-quality jobs will be critical. This includes workplace-improving interventions that enable employers to upgrade existing jobs, often while enhancing their own competitive position. This paper focuses on the Manufacturing Extension Partnership, a national network of federally funded centers that support small and medium-sized manufacturing firms. We document the range of workforce- and workplace-enhancing strategies that MEP centers have adopted since the network’s inception in the mid-1990s. While workforce development is unevenly implemented across today’s MEP network, leading centers within the network are devising transformative strategies …
Keep Me In, Coach: The Short- And Long-Term Effects Of Targeted Academic Coaching, Serena Canaan, Stefanie Fischer, Pierre Mouganie, Geoffrey C. Schnorr
Keep Me In, Coach: The Short- And Long-Term Effects Of Targeted Academic Coaching, Serena Canaan, Stefanie Fischer, Pierre Mouganie, Geoffrey C. Schnorr
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
To boost college graduation rates, policymakers often advocate for academic supports such as coaching or mentoring. Proactive and intensive coaching interventions are effective, but are costly and difficult to scale. We evaluate a relatively lower-cost group coaching program targeted at first-year college students placed on academic probation. Participants attend a workshop where coaches aim to normalize failure and improve self-confidence. Coaches also facilitate a process whereby participants reflect on their academic difficulties, devise solutions to address their challenges, and create an action plan. Participants then hold a one-time follow-up meeting with their coach or visit a campus resource. Using a …
Firms And Unemployment Insurance Take-Up, Marta Lachowska, Isaac Sorkin, Stephen A. Woodbury
Firms And Unemployment Insurance Take-Up, Marta Lachowska, Isaac Sorkin, Stephen A. Woodbury
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We use administrative data to quantify the firm role in unemployment insurance (UI) take-up. First, there are firm effects in both claiming and appeals, and, consistent with deterrence effects, these are negatively correlated. Second, low-wage workers are less likely to claim and more likely to have their claims appealed than median-wage workers, and firm effects explain a large share of these income gradients. Third, high-claiming and low-appealing firms are desirable firms: they are higher-paying and have lower separation rates. Finally, the dominant source of targeting error in the UI system is that eligible workers do not apply. Our findings emphasize …
Common Ownership In Labor Markets, José Azar, Yue Qiu, Aaron Sojourner
Common Ownership In Labor Markets, José Azar, Yue Qiu, Aaron Sojourner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
In this paper, we study common ownership in U.S. labor markets, and document that common ownership more than doubled over the period 1999–2017. To identify the causal effects of common ownership on labor market outcomes, we use a firm’s addition to the S&P 500 index as a shock to the common ownership of its competitors in local labor markets. Using a matched difference-in-differences analysis, we find that, after a firm enters the S&P 500 index, the average annual earnings per employee of its local competitors decrease relative to the counterfactual. The effect of S&P 500 index additions on employee earnings …
Monopsony In The U.S. Labor Market, Chen Yeh, Claudia Macaluso, Brad J. Hershbein
Monopsony In The U.S. Labor Market, Chen Yeh, Claudia Macaluso, Brad J. Hershbein
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper quantifies the extent to which the U.S. manufacturing labor market is characterized by employer market power and how such market power has changed over time. We find that the vast majority of U.S. manufacturing plants operate in a monopsonistic environment and, at least since the early 2000s, the labor market in U.S. manufacturing has become more monopsonistic. To reach this conclusion, we exploit rich administrative data for U.S. manufacturers and estimate plant-level markdowns—the ratio between a plant’s marginal revenue product of labor and its wage. In a competitive labor market, markdowns would be equal to unity. Instead, we …
Why Aren’T People Leaving Janesville? Industry Persistence, Trade Shocks, And Mobility, Sebastian Ottinger, Michael Poyker
Why Aren’T People Leaving Janesville? Industry Persistence, Trade Shocks, And Mobility, Sebastian Ottinger, Michael Poyker
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Particular industries have dominated many locations in the United States for more than a century. We show that individuals residing in such locations were systematically less likely to move away from there during the past few decades. By identifying locations with sizable employment shares in the same manufacturing industries in 1870 and 1980, we documented less out-migration in the decades following 1980 than earlier. In response to the largest shock affecting manufacturing employment since then, these locations adjusted differently: the “China shock” led to higher unemployment in their communities, but fewer people moved away. Drawing on rich data of social …
Pell Grants And Labor Supply: Evidence From A Regression Kink, Michael S. Kofoed
Pell Grants And Labor Supply: Evidence From A Regression Kink, Michael S. Kofoed
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
A concern in higher education policy is that students are taking longer to graduate. One possible reason for this observation is an increase in off-campus labor market participation among college students. Financial aid may play a role in the labor/study choice of college students—as college becomes more affordable, students my substitute away from work and toward increased study. I use data from the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) to exploit nonlinearity in the Pell Grant formula to estimate a regression kink and regression discontinuity designs. I find that conditional on receiving the minimum of $550, students reduce their labor …
Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers: Evidence From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers: Evidence From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper studies how government transfers respond to changes in local economic activity that emerge during recessions. Local labor markets that experience greater employment losses during recessions face persistent relative decreases in earnings per capita. However, these areas also experience persistent increases in transfers per capita, which offset 16 percent of the earnings loss on average. The increase in transfers is driven by unemployment insurance in the short run, and medical, retirement, and disability transfers in the long run. Our results show that nominally place-neutral transfer programs redistribute considerable sums of money to places with depressed economic conditions.
How Reliable Are Administrative Reports Of Paid Work Hours?, Marta Lachowska, Alexandre Mas, Stephen A. Woodbury
How Reliable Are Administrative Reports Of Paid Work Hours?, Marta Lachowska, Alexandre Mas, Stephen A. Woodbury
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper examines the quality of quarterly records on work hours collected from employers in the State of Washington to administer the unemployment insurance (UI) system, specifically to determine eligibility for UI. We subject the administrative records to four “trials,” all of which suggest the records reliably measure paid hours of work. First, distributions of hours in the administrative records and Current Population Survey outgoing rotation groups (CPS) both suggest that 52–54% of workers work approximately 40 hours per week. Second, in the administrative records, quarter-to-quarter changes in the log of earnings are highly correlated with quarter-to-quarter changes in the …
Wage Posting Or Wage Bargaining? A Test Using Dual Jobholders, Marta Lachowska, Alexandre Mas, Raffaele Saggio, Stephen A. Woodbury
Wage Posting Or Wage Bargaining? A Test Using Dual Jobholders, Marta Lachowska, Alexandre Mas, Raffaele Saggio, Stephen A. Woodbury
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper examines the behavior of dual jobholders to test a simple model of wage bargaining and wage posting. We estimate the sensitivity of wages and separation rates to wage shocks in a worker’s secondary job to assess the degree of bargaining versus wage posting in the labor market. We interpret the evidence within a model where workers facing hours constraints in their primary job may take a second, flexible-hours job for additional income. When a secondary job offers a sufficiently high wage, a worker either bargains with the primary employer for a wage increase or separates. The model provides …
Isolated States Of America: The Impact Of State Borders On Mobility And Regional Labor Market Adjustments, Riley Wilson
Isolated States Of America: The Impact Of State Borders On Mobility And Regional Labor Market Adjustments, Riley Wilson
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
I document a new empirical pattern of internal mobility in the United States. Namely, county-to-county migration and commuting drop off discretely at state borders. People are three times as likely to move to a county 15 miles away, but in the same state, than to move to an equally distant county in a different state. These gaps remain even among neighboring counties or counties in the same commuting zone. This pattern is not explained by differences in county characteristics, is not driven by any particular demographic group, and is not explained by pecuniary costs such as differences in state occupational …
General Equilibrium Effects Of Insurance Expansions: Evidence From Long-Term Care Labor Markets, Martin Hackmann, Joerg Heining, Roman Klimke, Maria Polyakova, Holger Seibert
General Equilibrium Effects Of Insurance Expansions: Evidence From Long-Term Care Labor Markets, Martin Hackmann, Joerg Heining, Roman Klimke, Maria Polyakova, Holger Seibert
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Arrow (1963) hypothesized that demand-side moral hazard induced by health insurance leads to supply-side expansions in healthcare markets. Capturing these effects empirically has been challenging, as non-marginal insurance expansions are rare and detailed data on healthcare labor and capital is sparse. We combine administrative labor market data with the geographic variation in the rollout of a universal insurance program—the introduction of long-term care (LTC) insurance in Germany in 1995—to document a substantial expansion of the inpatient LTC labor market in response to insurance expansion. A 10 percentage point expansion in the share of insured elderly leads to 0.05 (7%) more …
How Does The Elimination Of State Aid To For-Profit Colleges Affect Enrollment? Evidence From California’S Reforms, Oded Gurantz, Ryan Sakoda, Shayak Sarkar
How Does The Elimination Of State Aid To For-Profit Colleges Affect Enrollment? Evidence From California’S Reforms, Oded Gurantz, Ryan Sakoda, Shayak Sarkar
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper examines how financial aid reform based on postsecondary institutional performance impacts student choice. Federal and state regulations often reflect concerns about the private, for-profit sector’s poor employment outcomes and high loan defaults, despite the sector’s possible theoretical advantages. We use student-level data to examine how eliminating public subsidies to attend low-performing for-profit institutions impacts students’ college enrollment and completion behavior. Beginning in 2011, California tightened eligibility standards for their state aid program, effectively eliminating most for-profit eligibility. Linking data on aid application to administrative payment and postsecondary enrollment records, this paper utilizes a difference-in differences strategy to investigate …
Black Suburbanization: Causes And Consequences Of A Transformation Of American Cities, Alexander W. Bartik, Evan Mast
Black Suburbanization: Causes And Consequences Of A Transformation Of American Cities, Alexander W. Bartik, Evan Mast
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Since 1970, the share of Black individuals living in suburbs of large cities has risen from 16 to 36 percent. This shift is as large as the post-World War II wave of the Great Migration. We first show that Black suburbanization has led to major changes in neighborhoods, accounting for a large share of recent increases in both the average Black individual’s neighborhood quality and within-Black income segregation. We then show that changes in relative suburban amenities and housing prices explain about 60 and 30 percent, respectively, of Black suburbanization, while regional reallocation, changing educational attainment, and gentrification play only …
Labor Market Consequences Of Antitax Avoidance Policies, Katarzyna Bilicka
Labor Market Consequences Of Antitax Avoidance Policies, Katarzyna Bilicka
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
In this paper, I analyze the local labor market consequences of multinational firms reallocating employees across their affiliates in response to antitax avoidance policies. I leverage the introduction of a worldwide debt cap in 2010 in the United Kingdom as a quasi-natural experiment that limited one of the forms of profit shifting—debt shifting—for a group of multinational corporations (MNCs). Multinationals affected by the reform reallocated their employees from the United Kingdom to foreign locations. This affected London-based service sector firms the most. I show that this led to a reduction in the number of jobs available in regions exposed to …
When Labor Enforcement And Immigration Enforcement Collide: Deterring Worker Complaints Worsens Workplace Safety, Amanda M. Grittner, Matthew S. Johnson
When Labor Enforcement And Immigration Enforcement Collide: Deterring Worker Complaints Worsens Workplace Safety, Amanda M. Grittner, Matthew S. Johnson
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Regulatory agencies overseeing the labor market often rely on worker complaints to direct their enforcement. However, if workers face differential barriers to complain, this system could result in ineffective targeting and create disparities in working conditions. To investigate these implications, we examine how the onset of Secure Communities—a localized immigration enforcement program—affected occupational safety and health. Counties’ participation in Secure Communities substantially reduced complaints to government safety regulators, but increased injuries, at workplaces with Hispanic workers. We show that these effects are most consistent with employers reducing safety inputs in response to workers’ decreased willingness to complain.
The Dynamics Of Referral Hiring And Racial Inequality: Evidence From Brazil, Conrad Miller, Ian Schmutte
The Dynamics Of Referral Hiring And Racial Inequality: Evidence From Brazil, Conrad Miller, Ian Schmutte
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We study how referral hiring contributes to racial inequality in firm-level labor demand over the firm’s life cycle using data from Brazil. We consider a search model where referral networks are segregated, firms are more informed about the match quality of referred candidates, and some referrals are made by nonreferred employees. Consistent with the model, we find that firms are more likely to hire candidates and less likely to dismiss employees of the same race as the founder, but these differences diminish as firms’ cumulative hires increase. Referral hiring helps to explain racial differences in dismissals, seniority, and employer size.
A Model Of Occupational Licensing And Statistical Discrimination, Peter Q. Blair, Bobby W. Chung
A Model Of Occupational Licensing And Statistical Discrimination, Peter Q. Blair, Bobby W. Chung
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We develop a model of statistical discrimination in occupational licensing. In the model, there is endogenous occupation selection and wage determination that depends on how costly it is to obtain the license and the productivity of the human capital that is bundled with the license. Under these assumptions, we find a unique equilibrium with sharp comparative statics for the licensing premiums. The key theoretical result in this paper is that the licensing premium is higher for workers who are members of demographic groups that face a higher cost of licensing. The intuition for this result is that the higher cost …
Beyond Degrees: Longer Term Outcomes Of The Kalamazoo Promise, Brad J. Hershbein, Isabel Mcmullen, Brian Pittelko, Bridget F. Timmeney
Beyond Degrees: Longer Term Outcomes Of The Kalamazoo Promise, Brad J. Hershbein, Isabel Mcmullen, Brian Pittelko, Bridget F. Timmeney
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We estimate the effects on workforce and location outcomes of the Kalamazoo Promise, a generous, place-based college scholarship. Drawing upon administrative unemployment insurance wage records merged with individual-level education data, we identify Promise effects by comparing eligible to ineligible graduates before and after the Promise’s initiation. We supplement this quantitative analysis with surveys and interviews. Despite earlier research showing that the Kalamazoo Promise substantially increased degree attainment, we find little evidence that the program affected average earnings within 10 years of high school graduation. However, the Kalamazoo Promise may have increased the likelihood of eligible graduates having earnings, within Michigan, …
Trade Policy As An Exogenous Shock: Focusing On The Specifics, Andrew Greenland, John W. Lopresti
Trade Policy As An Exogenous Shock: Focusing On The Specifics, Andrew Greenland, John W. Lopresti
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper proposes a novel strategy for identifying the effects of import competition on economic outcomes that avoids standard concerns related to the endogeneity of trade policy and provides a consistent measure of exposure to trade over time. Conditioning on the level of import tariffs, our approach exploits cross-industry differences in the relative importance of specific rather than ad valorem tariffs. As they are expressed in per unit terms rather than as a share of value, the effective protection provided by a given specific tariff varies with price levels. Using digitized tariff line data between 1900 and 1940, we relate …
Youth Disconnection During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Mark Borgschulte, Yuci Chen
Youth Disconnection During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Mark Borgschulte, Yuci Chen
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on youth disconnection—i.e., the share of young people who were neither in school nor at work. Youth disconnection offers important advantages, relative to unemployment or participation rates, as a measure of the labor market for the most marginal and disadvantaged youth. Before the pandemic, approximately one out of eight young people between the ages of 18 and 24 were disconnected. The disconnection rate increased dramatically in April 2020 because of the pandemic; however, it has decreased quickly since that time. The increase in the disconnection rate at the beginning of the …
Trade And Informality In The Presence Of Labor Market Frictions And Regulations, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea
Trade And Informality In The Presence Of Labor Market Frictions And Regulations, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We build an equilibrium model of a small open economy with labor market frictions and imperfectly enforced regulations. Heterogeneous firms sort into the formal or informal sector. We estimate the model using data from Brazil, and use counterfactual simulations to understand how trade affects economic outcomes in the presence of informality. We show the following: 1) Trade openness unambiguously decreases informality in the tradable sector but has ambiguous effects on aggregate informality. 2) The productivity gains from trade are understated when the informal sector is omitted. 3) Trade openness results in large welfare gains even when informality is repressed. 4) …
Career Paths With A Two-Body Problem: Occupational Specialization And Geographic Mobility, Valeria Rueda, Guillaume Wilemme
Career Paths With A Two-Body Problem: Occupational Specialization And Geographic Mobility, Valeria Rueda, Guillaume Wilemme
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We develop a model of joint job search and occupational choice in which job opportunities can be incompatible inside the couple. Typically, incompatibilities may arise because jobs are not in the same location. We show that the existence of incompatible jobs pushes some couples to sacrifice the career of one partner. The model predicts occupational switches throughout the career and at the time of couple formation. Gendered equilibria, whereby all women (or men) choose the accommodating occupation, may arise. Any element of ex-ante unfavorable gender gaps—for instance, due to discrimination or norms—is amplified and can generate large systemic differences in …
Labor Market Trends And Outcomes: What Has Changed Since The Great Recession?, Erica L. Groshen, Harry J. Holzer
Labor Market Trends And Outcomes: What Has Changed Since The Great Recession?, Erica L. Groshen, Harry J. Holzer
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We describe trends in wages and labor force participation for the “working class”—whom we define as workers with high school or less education—compared to those with college or more. We compare cyclical peaks over the entire period 1979–2019, with particular focus on the Great Recession (2007–2010) and recovery (2010–2019). We also present results by gender and race. We find real wage growth in the latter period for all workers, but not enough to change the long-term trends of growing inequality and stagnant wages for the less-educated; and we also find that labor force participation continued to decline for the less-educated, …
How Would A Permanently Refundable Child And Dependent Care Credit Affect Eligibility, Benefits, And Incentives?, Gabrielle Pepin
How Would A Permanently Refundable Child And Dependent Care Credit Affect Eligibility, Benefits, And Incentives?, Gabrielle Pepin
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The federal Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) subsidizes child care costs for working families. Before 2021, the CDCC was nonrefundable, so only families with positive tax liability after other deductions benefited. I estimate how CDCC eligibility, benefits, and marginal tax rates would change if the credit were made permanently refundable, relative to 2020 CDCC parameters set to be restored in 2022. Under refundability, some 5 percent of single parents gain eligibility and receive on average over $1,000 annually. Eligibility increases are largest among Black and Hispanic households. Increases in marginal tax rates among moderate-income taxpayers are small.
Globalization, Trade Imbalances, And Labor Market Adjustment, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Sharon Traiberman
Globalization, Trade Imbalances, And Labor Market Adjustment, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Sharon Traiberman
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We study the role of global trade imbalances in shaping the adjustment dynamics in response to trade shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: 1) consumption-saving decisions in each country commanded by representative households, leading to endogenous trade imbalances, and 2) labor market frictions across and within sectors, leading to unemployment dynamics and sluggish transitions to shocks. We use the estimated model to study the behavior of labor markets in response to globalization shocks, including shocks to technology, trade costs, and intertemporal preferences (savings gluts). We find that modeling trade …
Human Capital And Black-White Earnings Gaps, 1996–2017, Owen Thompson
Human Capital And Black-White Earnings Gaps, 1996–2017, Owen Thompson
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper estimates the contribution of human capital to the Black-white earnings gap in three separate samples of men spanning from 1966 through 2017, using both educational attainment and performance on standardized tests to measure human capital. There are three main findings. First, the magnitude of reductions in the Black-white earnings gap that occur after controlling for human capital has become much larger over time, suggesting a growing contribution of human capital to Black-white earnings disparities. Second, these increases are almost entirely due to growth in the returns to human capital, which magnify the impact of any racial differences in …
The Covid-19 Pandemic's Evolving Impacts On The Labor Market: Who's Been Hurt And What We Should Do, Brad J. Hershbein, Harry J. Holzer
The Covid-19 Pandemic's Evolving Impacts On The Labor Market: Who's Been Hurt And What We Should Do, Brad J. Hershbein, Harry J. Holzer
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year 2020. Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy restrictions, we consider a range of employment outcomes—including permanent layoffs, which generate large and lasting costs—and how these outcomes vary across demographic groups, occupations, and industries over time. We also examine how these employment patterns vary across different states, according to the timing and severity of virus caseloads, deaths, and closure measures. We find that the …
Informed Choices: Gender Gaps In Career Advice, Yana Gallen, Melanie Wasserman
Informed Choices: Gender Gaps In Career Advice, Yana Gallen, Melanie Wasserman
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper estimates gender differences in access to informal information regarding the labor market. We conduct a large-scale field experiment in which real college students seek information from 10,000 working professionals about various career paths, and we randomize whether a professional receives a message from a male or a female student. We focus the experimental design and analysis on two career attributes that prior research has shown to differentially affect the labor market choices of women: the extent to which a career accommodates work/life balance and has a competitive culture. When students ask broadly for information about a career, we …