Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Effect Of Job Referrals On Labor Market Outcomes In Brazil, Christopher J. O'Leary, Túlio Cravo, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper is the first to use program administrative data from Brazil’s National Employment System (SINE) to assess the impact of SINE job interview referrals on labor market outcomes. Data for a five-year period (2012–2016) are used to evaluate the impact of SINE on employment probability, wage rates, time until reemployment, and job tenure. Difference-in-differences estimates suggest that a SINE job interview referral increases the probability of finding a job within three months of the referral and reduces the number of months to find reemployment, the average job tenure of the next job, and the reemployment wage. Subgroup analysis suggests …

Use Of Unemployment Insurance And Public Employment Services After Leaving Welfare, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

In this paper I examine the rates at which adults in households recently receiving Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) become jobless, apply for and receive unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, and participate in publicly funded employment services. I also investigate the correlation of UI and employment services receipt with maintenance of self-sufficiency through return to work and independence from TANF. The analysis is based on person-level administrative program records from four of the nine largest states between 1997 and 2003. Evidence suggests that three-quarters of new TANF leavers experience joblessness within three years, and one-quarter of the newly jobless apply …

A Methodology For Setting State And Local Regression-Adjusted Performance Targets For Workforce Investment Act Programs, Randall W. Eberts, Wei-Jang Huang, Jing Cai

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Beginning with PY2009, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA) adopted a regression-adjusted approach for setting national targets for several federal workforce development programs, including WIA Adult, Dislocated Worker, and Youth programs. Prior to that time, national targets were based on past performance and the desire to encourage continuous improvement in the workforce programs. The continuous improvement approach typically increased target levels from year to year without a systematic way of accounting for changes in economic conditions or the ability to meet previous targets. The onset of the 2007–2009 recession drew into question this practice, and the …

The Secular Rise In Unemployment Insurance Exhaustions And What Can Be Done About It, Ralph E. Smith

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Over the past several decades, the rate at which regular unemployment insurance recipients run out of benefits before they have found jobs, even in a strong labor market, has been gradually rising. For example, in 1973, 27.4 percent of UI recipients exhausted their benefits; in 2007 (with a similar unemployment rate) 35.6 percent exhausted. This paper documents the increase in the exhaustion rate, along with the parallel rise in long-term unemployment; examines the consequences; and reviews what has been learned about the efficacy of various approaches for reversing, or at least halting, the trend.

The research on the rise in …

Policies For Displaced Workers: An American Perspective, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

American employment policy for displaced workers started in the Great Depression with programs for the employment service, unemployment insurance, work experience, and direct job creation. Assistance for workers displaced by foreign competition emerged in the 1960s along with formalized programs for occupational job skill training. The policy focus on displaced workers was sharpened in the 1980s through the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act and the Economic Dislocation and Worker Adjustment Assistance Act. Field experiments on services to dislocated workers led to Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services systems in all states, and federal rules adopted as part of the North …

Employment And Training Policy In The United States During The Economic Crisis, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines labor market conditions and public employment policies in the United States during what some are calling the Great Recession. We document the dramatic labor market changes that rapidly unfolded when the rate of gross domestic product growth turned negative, from the end of 2007 through early 2009. The paper reviews the resulting stress on labor market support programs and the broad federal response. That response came through modifications to existing programs and the introduction of new mechanisms to help Americans cope with job loss and protracted unemployment. The particular focus is on federally supported public programs for …

Methodology For Adjusting Gpra Workforce Development Program Performance Targets For The Effects Of Business Cycles, Timothy J. Bartik, Randall W. Eberts, Wei-Jang Huang

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The U.S. Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration issued Training and Employment Guidance Letter (TEGL) 09-08 Change 1 on June 5, 2009. This guidance letter revises the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) performance measures for federal workforce development programs to take into account the effect of the recession on participants' labor market and educational outcomes. As described in the TEGL, the performance targets of the various workforce development programs have been developed for use for the years PY2008 through PY2010. They are intended to be used for PY2009 performance target negotiations and will appear in the President's Budget …

Estimating A Performance Standards Adjustment Model For Workforce Programs That Provides Timely Feedback And Uses Data From Only One State, Timothy J. Bartik, Randall W. Eberts, Kenneth J. Kline

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology for adjusting performance standards for workforce programs offered by local workforce areas (LWAs). By performance standards adjustment, we mean a model that uses a statistical approach to attempt to better measure the relative performance of different local workforce areas in providing workforce system customers with "value added" in terms of the system's desired outcomes. Our paper's approach has four distinguishing features. First, the performance standards are based on the common measures proposed by the U.S. Department of Labor, which include short- and longer-term employment outcomes. Second, the model is estimated …

Do Job Search Rules And Reemployment Services Reduce Insured Unemployment?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper summarizes state unemployment insurance job search policies based on a recent survey of states by the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. It then reviews research results on the effects of reemployment services on durations of insured unemployment. The paper documents how state administrative practices have changed and questions whether these changes may have affected monitoring of claimant compliance with work search requirements. Since state policies on job search and service referral can affect insured durations of unemployment, these policies can also affect the measured total unemployment rate.

Evaluating Job Training In Two Chinese Cities, Benu Bidani, Chor-Ching Goh, Niels-Hugo Blunch, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Recent years have seen a surge in the evidence on the impacts of active labor market programs for numerous countries. However, little evidence has been presented on the effectiveness of such programs in China. Recent economic reforms, associated massive lay-offs, and accompanying public retraining programs make China fertile ground for rigorous impact evaluations. This study evaluates retraining programs for laid-off workers in the cities of Shenyang and Wuhan using a comparison group design. To our knowledge, this is the first evaluation of its kind in China. The evidence suggests that retraining helped workers find jobs in Wuhan, but had little …

Do Government Sponsored Vocational Training Programs Help The Unemployed Find Jobs? Evidence From Russia, Anton Nivorozhkin, Eugenity Nivorozhkin

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The study estimates the employment effect of vocational training programs for the unemployed in urban Russia. The results of propensity score matching indicate that training programs had a non-negative overall effect on the program participants relative to non-participants.

Personal Reemployment Accounts: Simulations For Planning Implementation, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The proposed Back to Work Incentive Act of 2003 recommended personal reemployment accounts (PRAs) that would provide each eligible unemployment insurance (UI) claimant with a special account of up to 3,000 [dollars] to finance reemployment activities. Account funds could be used to purchase intensive, supportive, and job training services. Any funds remaining in the PRA could be paid as a cash bonus for reemployment within 13 weeks, or drawn as extended income maintenance for exhaustees of regular UI benefits. Personal reemployment account offers would be targeted to UI beneficiaries most likely to exhaust their UI entitlements using state Worker Profiling …

Cost-Effectiveness Of Targeted Reemployment Bonuses, Christopher J. O'Leary, Paul T. Decker, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Targeting reemployment bonus offers to unemployment insurance (UI) claimants identified as most likely to exhaust benefits is estimated to reduce benefit payments. We show that targeting bonus offers with profiling models similar to those in state Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services systems can improve cost effectiveness. Since estimated average benefit payments do not steadily decline as the eligibility screen is gradually tightened, we find that narrow targeting is not optimal. The best candidate is a low bonus amount with a long qualification period, targeted to the half of profiled claimants most likely to exhaust their UI benefit entitlement.

Net Impact Estimates Of The Workforce Development System In Washington State, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This study estimates the net impacts and private and social benefits and costs of nine workforce development programs administered in Washington State. Five of the programs serve job-ready adults: Community and Technical College Job Training, Private Career Schools, Apprenticeships, Job Training and Partnership Act (JTPA) Title III programs, and Community and Technical College Worker Retraining. Two of the programs serve adults with employment barriers : Community and Technical College Adult Basic Skills Education and JTPA Title II-A programs. The other two programs serve youth: JTPA Title II-C programs and Secondary Career Technical Education. The net impact analyses were conducted using …

Income Replacement And Reemployment Programs In Michigan And Neighboring States, Stephen A. Woodbury

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Governments in every developed industrial economy administer programs that partially replace the earnings of workers who suffer job loss or on-the-job injury. In addition, governments administer programs to help job losers gain reemployment, either through direct job placement (for those who are job-ready) or through retraining (for those who are not). This chapter describes and discusses current policy issues surrounding the main social insurance and reemployment programs in Michigan: Unemployment Insurance (UI), which partially replaces lost earnings following loss of a job; Workers' Compensation (WC), which pays for medical treatment, vocational rehabilitation, and lost earnings following a work-related injury or …

A Frontline Decision Support System For Georgia Career Centers, Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Workforce Investment Act (WIA) of 1998 emphasizes the integration and coordination of employment services. Central to achieving this aim is the federal requirement that local areas receiving WIA funding must establish one-stop centers, where providers of various employment services within a local labor market are assembled in one location. A major challenge facing staff in these centers is the expected large volume of customers resulting from relaxed program eligibility rules. Nonetheless, resources for assessment and counseling are limited. To help frontline staff in one-stop centers quickly assess customer needs and properly target services, the U.S. Department of Labor has …

Intergovernmental Relations In Employment Policy: The United States Experience, Christopher J. O'Leary, Robert A. Straits

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Policies to regulate and support labor markets in the United States have mainly been an initiative of the federal government. Historically, states and localities were reluctant to act independently to build up worker rights and protections for fear of competitively disadvantaging resident industries with added costs. Federal constitutional authority to raise revenue and control commerce among the states governed development of labor market policy in the United States. Labor market support initiatives usually have been forged in difficult economic times with contributions and compromise from the full political spectrum. This paper examines the development of employment policy in the twentieth …

Aggregate Effects In Local Labor Markets Of Supply And Demand Shocks, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Anti-poverty policy in the U.S. has emphasized labor supply policies, such as welfare reform or job training. Anti-poverty policy in the U.S. has not emphasized policies to increase labor demand for the poor, such as public employment or subsidizing private employers to hire the poor. What are the aggregate effects of such policies on wages and unemployment of different groups? This paper estimates and simulates a model with several types of labor, using data from the Current Population Survey on state labor markets. The simulations suggest that forcing more disadvantaged persons into the labor market can displace many other persons …

Preliminary Evidence On Impacts Of Active Labor Programs In Hungary And Poland, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

To ease the hardship associated with worker dislocation and to maintain social stability during the transition to markets, the governments of Hungary and Poland provide labor force members with unemployment compensation and a variety of active labor programs (ALPs). Follow-up surveys of participants in retraining, public works, wage subsidies, self-employment, and comparison groups were done in Hungary and Poland in early 1997. Preliminary analysis suggests positive net impacts for most ALPs and additive benefits from the use of the employment service in both countries. Strong evidence of nonrandom assignment to programs means that great care should be used in interpreting …

Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment: Implications Of The Reemployment Bonus Experiments, Carl Davidson, Stephen A. Woodbury

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We translate the results of the three reemployment bonus experiments that were conducted during the 1980s into (a) impacts of a 10-percentage point increase in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) replacement rate on the expected duration of unemployment; and (b) impacts of adding 1 week to the potential duration of UI benefits on the expected duration of unemployment. Our approach is to use an equilibrium search and matching model, calibrated using data from the bonus experiments and secondary sources. The results suggest that a 10-percentage point increase in the UI replacement rate increases the expected duration of unemployment by .3 to …

An Impact Analysis Of Employment Programs In Hungary, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper presents estimates of the impact of retraining and public service employment (PSE) on reemployment and earnings in the Republic of Hungary during the early phase of post-Socialist economic restructuring. Since assignment to programs resulted in groups with vastly dissimilar characteristics, impact estimates were computed using a variety of methods. Controlling for observable characteristics, retraining may have slightly improved the chances for reemployment in a non-subsidized job, but the gain in reemployment was probably not sufficient to justify the cost of retraining. However, since the durability of jobs appears to be better for those who were retrained, the long …

Evaluating Pooled Evidence From The Reemployment Bonus Experiments, Paul T. Decker, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Social experiments conducted in Pennsylvania and Washington tested the effect of offering Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants a cash bonus for rapid reemployment. This paper combines data from the two experiments and uses a consistent framework to evaluate the experiments and determine with greater certainty the extent to which a reemployment bonus can affect economic outcomes. Bonus offers in each of the experiments generated statistically significant but relatively modest reductions in UI receipt. Since the estimated impacts on UI receipt were modest, the reemployment bonuses did not generate the UI savings necessary to pay for administering and paying the bonuses. Hence, …

Reemployment Incentives For Unemployment Insurance Beneficiaries: Results From The Washington Reemployment Bonus Experiment, Christopher J. O'Leary, Robert G. Spiegelman, Kenneth J. Kline

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Unemployment insurance is intended to reduce hardship by providing labor force members with partial wage replacement during periods of involuntary unemployment. However, in performing this income maintenance function, unemployment insurance may prolong spells of unemployment. Evidence from a field experiment conducted in Illinois in 1984 suggested that offering unemployment insurance claimants a modest cash bonus for rapid reemployment would increase the speed of return to work and reduce program costs. In 1988 a similar experiment, examining several different bonus offers, was conducted in Washington State. Evidence from the Washington experiment indicates that bonus offers do change job seeking behavior, but …

Employer Training Needs In Hawaii: Summary Report, Stephen A. Woodbury, University Of Hawaii At Manoa, Industrial Relations Center

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Survey of Employer Training Needs in Hawaii was undertaken to gather information and data on the needs and preferences of employers in Hawaii regarding government assistance with training. The need for such information was created by passage of Act 68, Session Laws of Hawaii 1991, which created the Hawaii Employment and Training Fund "to assist employers and workers through innovative programs to include, but not be limited to, business-specific training, upgrade training, new occupational skills, management skills, and support services to improve the long-term employability of Hawaii's people."

Congressional Testimony On The Effectiveness Of The Employment Service In Aiding Ui Claimants, Louis S. Jacobson

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This testimony describes the results of a study of the Employment Service (ES) conducted by Dr. Jacobson and Prof. Arnold Katz of the University of Pittsburgh using data on over 100,000 individuals who registered with the Pennsylvania ES between 1978 and 1987, and an even larger sample of non-registrants. One major finding is that much of the decline in the ES's performance over the past thirty years can be explained by changes in: funding, characteristics of registrants, and characteristics of job vacancies. Thus, we concluded that criticism of the ES often ignores changes in crucial factors outside of the ES's …