Vital and Health Statistics Commons^™

Mechanistic Mathematical Models: An Underused Platform For Hpv Research, Marc Ryser, Patti Gravitt, Evan R. Myers

Global Health Faculty Publications

Health economic modeling has become an invaluable methodology for the design and evaluation of clinical and public health interventions against the human papillomavirus (HPV) and associated diseases. At the same time, relatively little attention has been paid to a different yet complementary class of models, namely that of mechanistic mathematical models. The primary focus of mechanistic mathematical models is to better understand the intricate biologic mechanisms and dynamics of disease. Inspired by a long and successful history of mechanistic modeling in other biomedical fields, we highlight several areas of HPV research where mechanistic models have the potential to advance the …

Climate Change, Natural Disasters, And Suicide: A Systematic Review, Ans Irfan, Peter Lapuma

GW Research Days 2016 - 2020

Background.
Natural disasters are projected to increase due to climate change. Mental health is not a well-researched area in public health, particularly as it relates to environmental health and in the aftermath of natural disasters. The suicide rate is approximately 13 per 100,000 people in the US, nationally. This already high suicide rate warrants researching this area mental health. Understanding the relation between natural disasters and suicide rates might help alleviate human suffering and potentially save lives in the future, in post-disaster settings. This research will further the knowledge of the association between natural disasters and suicide and provide foundation …

Variables Associated With Overweight/Obesity Among African-American Women With Hypertension And/Or Diabetes, Monica A. Hamilton, Dnp, Rn, Acns-Bc

Doctor of Nursing Practice Projects

BACKGROUND

Obesity is the second leading cause of preventable death next to tobacco use. Although it is prevalent in all populations, it disproportionately affects AA women. Overweight/obesity increases AA women’s chances of developing chronic illnesses such as diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and decreases their life expectancy. The purpose of this study was to explore variables associated with overweight/obese AA women with hypertension and/or diabetes.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis was conducted using a descriptive-correlational design to analyze cross-sectional data obtained from the 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The sample consisted of AA women (n =1823). The dependent variable …

Perspectives On Model Forecasts Of The 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic In West Africa: Lessons And The Way Forward, Gerardo Chowell, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani

Global Health Faculty Publications

The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here, we provide a perspective on some of the challenges and lessons drawn from these efforts, …

Generalized Confidence Intervals And Fiducial Intervals For Some Epidemiological Measures., Ionut Bebu, G. Luta, T. Mathew, B. K. Agan

GW Biostatistics Center

For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities …