Statistical Theory Commons^™

Identification And Efficient Estimation Of The Natural Direct Effect Among The Untreated, Samuel D. Lendle, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The natural direct effect (NDE), or the effect of an exposure on an outcome if an intermediate variable was set to the level it would have been in the absence of the exposure, is often of interest to investigators. In general, the statistical parameter associated with the NDE is difficult to estimate in the non-parametric model, particularly when the intermediate variable is continuous or high dimensional. In this paper we introduce a new causal parameter called the natural direct effect among the untreated, discus identifiability assumptions, and show that this new parameter is equivalent to the NDE in a randomized …

Development Of A Bayesian Joint Logistic Model To Better Study The Association Between Haplotypes And Disease, Anthony M. D'Amelio Jr

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

In 2011, there will be an estimated 1,596,670 new cancer cases and 571,950 cancer-related deaths in the US. With the ever-increasing applications of cancer genetics in epidemiology, there is great potential to identify genetic risk factors that would help identify individuals with increased genetic susceptibility to cancer, which could be used to develop interventions or targeted therapies that could hopefully reduce cancer risk and mortality.

In this dissertation, I propose to develop a new statistical method to evaluate the role of haplotypes in cancer susceptibility and development. This model will be flexible enough to handle not only haplotypes of any …

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Longitudinal High-Dimensional Data Analysis, Vadim Zipunnikov, Sonja Greven, Brian Caffo, Daniel S. Reich, Ciprian Crainiceanu

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

We develop a flexible framework for modeling high-dimensional functional and imaging data observed longitudinally. The approach decomposes the observed variability of high-dimensional observations measured at multiple visits into three additive components: a subject-specific functional random intercept that quantifies the cross-sectional variability, a subject-specific functional slope that quantifies the dynamic irreversible deformation over multiple visits, and a subject-visit specific functional deviation that quantifies exchangeable or reversible visit-to-visit changes. The proposed method is very fast, scalable to studies including ultra-high dimensional data, and can easily be adapted to and executed on modest computing infrastructures. The method is applied to the longitudinal analysis …

Assessing Association For Bivariate Survival Data With Interval Sampling: A Copula Model Approach With Application To Aids Study, Hong Zhu, Mei-Cheng Wang

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In disease surveillance systems or registries, bivariate survival data are typically collected under interval sampling. It refers to a situation when entry into a registry is at the time of the first failure event (e.g., HIV infection) within a calendar time interval, the time of the initiating event (e.g., birth) is retrospectively identified for all the cases in the registry, and subsequently the second failure event (e.g., death) is observed during the follow-up. Sampling bias is induced due to the selection process that the data are collected conditioning on the first failure event occurs within a time interval. Consequently, the …

Corrected Confidence Bands For Functional Data Using Principal Components, Jeff Goldsmith, Sonja Greven, Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Functional principal components (FPC) analysis is widely used to decompose and express functional observations. Curve estimates implicitly condition on basis functions and other quantities derived from FPC decompositions; however these objects are unknown in practice. In this paper, we propose a method for obtaining correct curve estimates by accounting for uncertainty in FPC decompositions. Additionally, pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals that account for both model- based and decomposition-based variability are constructed. Standard mixed-model representations of functional expansions are used to construct curve estimates and variances conditional on a specific decomposition. A bootstrap procedure is implemented to understand the uncertainty in …

Comparison Of Several Tests For Combining Several Independent Tests, Madhusudan Bhandary, Xuan Zhang

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Several tests for combining p-values from independent tests have been considered to address a particular common testing problem. A simulation study shows that Fisher’s (1932) Inverse Chi-square test is optimal based on a power comparison of several different tests.

Discriminant Analysis For Repeated Measures Data: Effects Of Mean And Covariance Misspecification On Bias And Error In Discriminant Function Coefficients, Tolulope T. Sajobi, Lisa M. Lix, Longhai Li, William Laverty

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Discriminant analysis (DA) procedures based on parsimonious mean and/or covariance structures have been proposed for repeated measures (RM) data. Bias and means square error of discriminant function coefficients (DFCs) for DA procedures are investigated when the mean and/or covariance structures are correctly specified and misspecified.

Construction Of Control Charts Based On Six Sigma Initiatives For The Number Of Defects And Average Number Of Defects Per Unit, R. Radhakrishnan, P. Balamurugan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A control chart is a statistical device used for the study and control of a repetitive process. In 1931, Shewart suggested control charts based on 3 sigma limits. Today manufacturing companies around the world apply Six Sigma initiatives, with a result offewer product defects. Companies practicing Six Sigma initiatives are expected to produce 3.4 or less number of defects per million opportunities, a concept suggested by Motorola in 1980. If companies practicing Six Sigma initiatives use control limits suggested by Shewhart, then no points will fall outside the control limits due to the improvement in the quality of the process. …

Identification Of Optimal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model On Temperature Data, Olusola Samuel Makinde, Olusoga Akin Fasoranbaku

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) processes of various orders are presented to identify an optimal model from a class of models. Parameters of the models are estimated using an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach. ARIMA (p, d, q) is formulated for maximum daily temperature data in Ondo and Zaira from January 1995 to November 2005. The choice of ARIMA models of orders p and q is intended to retain persistence in a natural process. To determine the performance of models, Normalized Bayesian Information Criterion is adopted. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) is adequate for modeling maximum daily temperature in Ondo …

Height-Diameter Relationship In Tree Modeling Using Simultaneous Equation Techniques In Correlated Normal Deviates, S. O. Oyamakin

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In other to study the complex simultaneous relationships existing in forest/tree growth modeling, six estimation methods of a simultaneous equation model are examined to determine how they cope with varying degrees of correlation between pairs of random deviates using average parameter estimates. A two-equation simultaneous system assumed covariance matrix was considered. The model was structured to have a mutual correlation between pairs of random deviates: a violation of the assumption of mutual independence between pairs of such random deviates. The correlation between the pairs of normal deviates were generated using three scenarios r = 0.0, 0.3 and 0.5. The performances …

Tests For Correlation On Bivariate Non-Normal Data, L. Beversdorf, Ping Sa

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Two statistics are considered to test the population correlation for non-normally distributed bivariate data. A simulation study shows that both statistics control type I error rates well for left-tailed tests and have reasonable power performance.

Lq-Moments For Regional Flood Frequency Analysis: A Case Study For The North-Bank Region Of The Brahmaputra River, India, Abhijit Bhuyan, Munindra Borah

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The LQ-moment proposed by Mudholkar, et al. (1998) is used for regional flood frequency analysis of the North-Bank region of the river Brahmaputra, India. Five probability distributions are used for the LQmoment: generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO) and generalized Pareto (GPA), lognormal (LN3) and Pearson Type III (PE3). The same regional frequency analysis procedure proposed by Hosking (1990) for the L-moment is used for the LQ-moment. Based on the LQ-moment ratio diagram and |Z_i^dist| -statistic criteria, the PE3 distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area. For estimation of floods of various …

Explicit Equations For Acf In Autoregressive Processes In The Presence Of Heteroscedasticity Disturbances, Samir Safi

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The autocorrelation function, ACF, is an important guide to the properties of a time series. Explicit equations are derived for ACF in the presence of heteroscedasticity disturbances in pth order autoregressive, AR(p), processes. Two cases are presented: (1) when the disturbance term follows the general covariance matrix, Σ , and (2) when the diagonal elements of Σ are not all identical but σ_i,j = 0 ∀i ≠ j.

Type I Error Rates Of The Two-Sample Pseudo-Median Procedure, Nor Aishah Ahad, Abdul Rahman Othman, Sharipah Soaad Syed Yahaya

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The performance of the pseudo-median based procedure is examined in terms of controlling Type I error for a two independent groups test. The procedure is a modification of the one-sample Wilcoxon statistic using the pseudo-median of differences between group values as the central measure of location. The proposed procedure was shown to have good control of Type I error rates under the study conditions regardless of distribution type.

Modified Ratio And Product Estimators For Population Mean In Systematic Sampling, Housila P. Singh, Rajesh Tailor, Narendra Kumar Jatwa

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The estimation of population mean in systematic sampling is explored. Properties of a ratio and product estimator that have been suggested in systematic sampling are investigated, along with the properties of double sampling. Following Swain (1964), the cost aspect is also discussed.

Estimation Of Parameters Of Johnson’S System Of Distributions, Florence George, K. M. Ramachandran

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Fitting distributions to data has a long history and many different procedures have been advocated. Although models like normal, log-normal and gamma lead to a wide variety of distribution shapes, they do not provide the degree of generality that is frequently desirable (Hahn & Shapiro, 1967). To formally represent a set of data by an empirical distribution, Johnson (1949) derived a system of curves with the flexibility to cover a wide variety of shapes. Methods available to estimate the parameters of the Johnson distribution are discussed, and a new approach to estimate the four parameters of the Johnson family is …

Robust Inference For Regression With Spatially Correlated Errors, Juchi Ou, Jeffrey M. Albert

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A robust variance estimator for a regression model with spatially correlated errors is proposed using the estimated empirical covariogram. Simulations studies show unbiasedness and robustness for the OLS but not for the GLS estimates. The new robust variance estimation method is applied to hospital quality data.. Stephanie A.

Maximum Log Likelihood Estimation Using Em Algorithm And Partition Maximum Log Likelihood Estimation For Mixtures Of Generalized Lambda Distributions, Steve Su

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Two mixture distribution fitting methods based on maximizing the likelihood using generalized lambda distributions are presented. The fitting algorithms are demonstrated on various data and the strengths and weakness of the algorithms which can influence their use under different mixture modeling situations are discussed. The procedures described are available in GLDEX package in R.

A Sequential Monte Carlo Approach For Online Stock Market Prediction Using Hidden Markov Models, Ahani E. Bridget, O. Abass

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm prediction approach is developed based on joint probability distribution in hidden Markov Models (HMM). SMC methods, a general class of Monte Carlo methods, are typically used for sampling from sequences of distributions and simple examples of these algorithms are found extensively throughout the tracking and signal processing literature. Recent developments indicate that these techniques have much more general applicability and can be applied very effectively to statistical inference problems. Due to the problem involved in estimating the parameter of HMM, the HMM is represented in a state space model and the sequential Monte Carlo …

Jmasm31: Manova Procedure For Power Calculations (Spss), Alan Taylor

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

D’Amico, Neilands & Zambarano (2001) showed how the SPSS MANOVA procedure can be used to conduct power calculations for research designs. This article demonstrates a simple way of entering data required for power calculations into SPSS and provides examples that supplement those given by D’Amico, Neilands & Zambarano.

A Pooled Two-Sample Median Test Based On Density Estimation, Vadim Y. Bichutskiy

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A new method based on density estimation is proposed for medians of two independent samples. The test controls the probability of Type I error and is at least as powerful as methods widely used in statistical practice. The method can be implemented using existing libraries in R.

Higher Order Markov Structure-Based Logistic Model And Likelihood Inference For Ordinal Data, Soma Chowdhury Biswas, M. Ataharul Islam, Jamal Nazrul Islam

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Azzalini (1994) proposed a first order Markov chain for binary data. Azzalini’s model is extended for ordinal data and introduces a second order model. Further, the test statistics are developed and the power of the test is determined. An application using real data is also presented.

Robustness, Power And Interpretability Of Pairwise Tests Of Discriminant Functions In Manova, Philip H. Ramsey, Patricia P. Ramsey, Priscila Hachimine, Nancy Andiloro

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Limiting follow-up hypotheses to be tested can reduce problems relating to the control of Type I and Type II errors in multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). Such limitations can also improve the interpretability of results. The importance of sample size, shape of population distribution, within-group correlations and heterogeneity of variances are demonstrated. The protected greatest characteristic root (GCR) procedure is shown to work well for small, group size, N (≤ 10). The unprotected GCR is shown to work well for larger N.

A Comparison Of Factor Rotation Methods For Dichotomous Data, W. Holmes Finch

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is frequently used in the social sciences and is a common component in many validity studies. A core aspect of EFA is the determination of which observed indicator variables are associated with which latent factors through the use of factor loadings. Loadings are initially extracted using an algorithm, such as maximum likelihood or weighted least squares, and then transformed - or rotated - to make them more interpretable. There are a number of rotational techniques available to the researcher making use of EFA. Prior work has discussed the advantages of a number of these criteria from …