Statistical Models Commons^™

Forecasting Covid-19 With Temporal Hierarchies And Ensemble Methods, Li Shandross

Masters Theses

Infectious disease forecasting efforts underwent rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing guidance for pandemic response and about potential future trends. Yet despite their importance, short-term forecasting models often struggled to produce accurate real-time predictions of this complex and rapidly changing system. This gap in accuracy persisted into the pandemic and warrants the exploration and testing of new methods to glean fresh insights.

In this work, we examined the application of the temporal hierarchical forecasting (THieF) methodology to probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 incident hospital admissions in the United States. THieF is an innovative forecasting technique that aggregates time-series data into …

Monitoring Mammals At Multiple Scales: Case Studies From Carnivore Communities, Kadambari Devarajan

Doctoral Dissertations

Carnivores are distributed widely and threatened by habitat loss, poaching, climate change, and disease. They are considered integral to ecosystem function through their direct and indirect interactions with species at different trophic levels. Given the importance of carnivores, it is of high conservation priority to understand the processes driving carnivore assemblages in different systems. It is thus essential to determine the abiotic and biotic drivers of carnivore community composition at different spatial scales and address the following questions: (i) What factors influence carnivore community composition and diversity? (ii) How do the factors influencing carnivore communities vary across spatial and temporal …

Bayesian Methods For The Assessment Of Reporting Errors For Data-Sparse Population-Periods With Applications To Estimating Mortality, Emily Peterson

Doctoral Dissertations

Population level mortality data is often subject to substantial reporting errors due to misclassification of cause of death, misclassification of death status, or age reporting errors. Accuracy of error-prone data sources can be assessed by comparing such data to gold standard data for the same population-period. We present Bayesian methods for assessing the extent of reporting errors across different population-periods and generalizing those to settings where gold-standard data are lacking. Firstly, we investigate misclassification errors of maternal cause of death reporting in civil registration vital statistics data. We use a Bayesian hierarchical bivariate random-walk model to estimate country-year specific sensitivity …

Population Viability And Connectivity Of The Federally Threatened Eastern Indigo Snake In Central Peninsular Florida, Javan Bauder

Doctoral Dissertations

Understanding the factors influencing the likelihood of persistence of real-world populations requires both an accurate understanding of the traits and behaviors of individuals within those populations (e.g., movement, habitat selection, survival, fecundity, dispersal) but also an understanding of how those traits and behaviors are influenced by landscape features. The federally threatened eastern indigo snake (EIS, Drymarchon couperi) has declined throughout its range primarily due to anthropogenically-induced habitat loss and fragmentation making spatially-explicit assessments of population viability and connectivity essential for understanding its current status and directing future conservation efforts. The primary goal of my dissertation was to understand how …

Quantile Regression For Survival Data With Delayed Entry, Boqin Sun

Doctoral Dissertations

Delayed entry arises frequently in follow-up studies for survival outcomes, where additional study subjects enter during the study period. We propose a quantile regression model to analyze survival data subject to delayed entry and right-censoring. Such a model offers flexibility in assessing covariate effects on survival outcome and the regression coefficients are interpretable as direct effects on the event time. Under the conditional independent censoring assumption, we proposed a weighted martingale-based estimating equation, and formulated the solution finding as a $\ell_1$-type convex optimization problem, which was solved through a linear programming algorithm. We established uniform consistency and weak convergence of …

Real-Time Dengue Forecasting In Thailand: A Comparison Of Penalized Regression Approaches Using Internet Search Data, Caroline Kusiak

Masters Theses

Dengue fever affects over 390 million people annually worldwide and is of particu- lar concern in Southeast Asia where it is one of the leading causes of hospitalization. Modeling trends in dengue occurrence can provide valuable information to Public Health officials, however many challenges arise depending on the data available. In Thailand, reporting of dengue cases is often delayed by more than 6 weeks, and a small fraction of cases may not be reported until over 11 months after they occurred. This study shows that incorporating data on Google Search trends can improve dis- ease predictions in settings with severely …

Modelling Bird Migration With Motus Data And Bayesian State-Space Models, Justin Baldwin

Masters Theses

Bird migration is a poorly-known yet important phenomenon, as understanding movement patterns of birds can inform conservation strategies and public health policy for animal-borne diseases. Recent advances in wildlife tracking technology, in particular the Motus system, have allowed researchers to track even small flying birds and insects with radio transmitters that weigh fractions of a gram. This system relies on a community-based distributed sensor network that detects tagged animals as they move through the detection nodes on journeys that range from small local movements to intercontinental migrations. The quantity of data generated by the Motus system is unprecedented, is on …

Statistical Methods For High Dimensional Data Arising From Large Epidemiological Studies, Hui Xu

Doctoral Dissertations

In this thesis, we propose statistical models for addressing commonly encountered data types and study designs in large epidemiologic investigations aimed at understanding the molecular basis of complex disorders. The motivating applications come from diverse disease areas in Women's Health, including the study of type II diabetes in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), invasive breast cancer in the Nurses' Health Study and the study of the metabolomic underpinnings of cardiovascular disease in the WHI. We have also put significant effort into making the implementation of the proposed methods accessible through freely available, user-friendly software packages in R. The first chapter …

Inference From Network Data In Hard-To-Reach Populations, Isabelle Beaudry

Doctoral Dissertations

The objective of this thesis is to develop methods to make inference about the prevalence of an outcome of interest in hard-to-reach populations. The proposed methods address issues specific to the survey strategies employed to access those populations. One of the common sampling methodology used in this context is respondent-driven sampling (RDS). Under RDS, the network connecting members of the target population is used to uncover the hidden members. Specialized techniques are then used to make inference from the data collected in this fashion. Our first objective is to correct traditional RDS prevalence estimators and their associated uncertainty estimators for …

Niche-Based Modeling Of Japanese Stiltgrass (Microstegium Vimineum) Using Presence-Only Information, Nathan Bush

Masters Theses

The Connecticut River watershed is experiencing a rapid invasion of aggressive non-native plant species, which threaten watershed function and structure. Volunteer-based monitoring programs such as the University of Massachusetts’ OutSmart Invasives Species Project, Early Detection Distribution Mapping System (EDDMapS) and the Invasive Plant Atlas of New England (IPANE) have gathered valuable invasive plant data. These programs provide a unique opportunity for researchers to model invasive plant species utilizing citizen-sourced data. This study took advantage of these large data sources to model invasive plant distribution and to determine environmental and biophysical predictors that are most influential in dispersion, and to identify …