Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Keyword
Articles 1 - 2 of 2
Full-Text Articles in Statistical Models
Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing
Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing
Publications
Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …
A Superposed Log-Linear Failure Intensity Model For Repairable Artillery Systems, Byeong Min Mun, Suk Joo Bae, Paul Kvam
A Superposed Log-Linear Failure Intensity Model For Repairable Artillery Systems, Byeong Min Mun, Suk Joo Bae, Paul Kvam
Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications
This article investigates complex repairable artillery systems that include several failure modes. We derive a superposed process based on a mixture of nonhomogeneous Poisson processes in a minimal repair model. This allows for a bathtub-shaped failure intensity that models artillery data better than currently used methods. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate model parameters and construct confidence intervals for the cumulative intensity of the superposed process. Finally, we propose an optimal maintenance policy for repairable systems with bathtub-shaped intensity and apply it to the artillery-failure data.