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Full-Text Articles in Statistical Models

Seasonal Time Series Models With Application To Weather And Lake Level Data, Mengqing Qin Dec 2019

Seasonal Time Series Models With Application To Weather And Lake Level Data, Mengqing Qin

MSU Graduate Theses

This work studies seasonal time series models with application to lake level and weather data. The thesis includes related time series concepts, integrated autoregressive moving average models (abbreviated as ARIMA), parameter estimation, model diagnostics, and forecasting. The studied time series models are applied to the data of daily lake level in Beaver Lake (1988-2017) and the data of daily maximum temperature in New York Central Park (1870-2017). Due to seasonality of the data, three different approaches are proposed to the modeling: regression method, functional ARIMA method and multiplicative seasonal ARIMA method. The forecasted values of the year 2018 are compared …


Bias Reduction In Machine Learning Classifiers For Spatiotemporal Analysis Of Coral Reefs Using Remote Sensing Images, Justin J. Gapper May 2019

Bias Reduction In Machine Learning Classifiers For Spatiotemporal Analysis Of Coral Reefs Using Remote Sensing Images, Justin J. Gapper

Computational and Data Sciences (PhD) Dissertations

This dissertation is an evaluation of the generalization characteristics of machine learning classifiers as applied to the detection of coral reefs using remote sensing images. Three scientific studies have been conducted as part of this research: 1) Evaluation of Spatial Generalization Characteristics of a Robust Classifier as Applied to Coral Reef Habitats in Remote Islands of the Pacific Ocean 2) Coral Reef Change Detection in Remote Pacific Islands using Support Vector Machine Classifiers 3) A Generalized Machine Learning Classifier for Spatiotemporal Analysis of Coral Reefs in the Red Sea. The aim of this dissertation is to propose and evaluate a …


A Bayesian Framework For Estimating Seismic Wave Arrival Time, Hua Zhong May 2019

A Bayesian Framework For Estimating Seismic Wave Arrival Time, Hua Zhong

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Because earthquakes have a large impact on human society, statistical methods for better studying earthquakes are required. One characteristic of earthquakes is the arrival time of seismic waves at a seismic signal sensor. Once we can estimate the earthquake arrival time accurately, the earthquake location can be triangulated, and assistance can be sent to that area correctly. This study presents a Bayesian framework to predict the arrival time of seismic waves with associated uncertainty. We use a change point framework to model the different conditions before and after the seismic wave arrives. To evaluate the performance of the model, we …


On Cluster Robust Models, José Bayoán Santiago Calderón Jan 2019

On Cluster Robust Models, José Bayoán Santiago Calderón

CGU Theses & Dissertations

Cluster robust models are a kind of statistical models that attempt to estimate parameters considering potential heterogeneity in treatment effects. Absent heterogeneity in treatment effects, the partial and average treatment effect are the same. When heterogeneity in treatment effects occurs, the average treatment effect is a function of the various partial treatment effects and the composition of the population of interest. The first chapter explores the performance of common estimators as a function of the presence of heterogeneity in treatment effects and other characteristics that may influence their performance for estimating average treatment effects. The second chapter examines various approaches …


Bayesian Analysis For The Intraclass Model And For The Quantile Semiparametric Mixed-Effects Double Regression Models, Duo Zhang Jan 2019

Bayesian Analysis For The Intraclass Model And For The Quantile Semiparametric Mixed-Effects Double Regression Models, Duo Zhang

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

This dissertation consists of three distinct but related research projects. The first two projects focus on objective Bayesian hypothesis testing and estimation for the intraclass correlation coefficient in linear models. The third project deals with Bayesian quantile inference for the semiparametric mixed-effects double regression models. In the first project, we derive the Bayes factors based on the divergence-based priors for testing the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The hypothesis testing of the ICC is used to test the uncorrelatedness in multilevel modeling, and it has not well been studied from an objective Bayesian perspective. Simulation results show that the two sorts …


Global Warming Statistical Analysis, Jared Skinner Jan 2019

Global Warming Statistical Analysis, Jared Skinner

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This paper will investigate global warming and its effects on natural disasters. I will review the historic movements of climate change and activism, as well as the current discussions surrounding global warming. Secondly, I will examine various datasets, paying attention to the severity and frequency of specific natural disasters. I will then touch briefly on the topic of catastrophe modeling as it relates to the increased risk and losses associated with the discussed natural disasters and how those put the problem of global warming in a framework which financial and government institutions can grasp. I will also be analyzing economic …


Variable Selection In Accelerated Failure Time (Aft) Frailty Models: An Application Of Penalized Quasi-Likelihood, Sarbesh R. Pandeya Jan 2019

Variable Selection In Accelerated Failure Time (Aft) Frailty Models: An Application Of Penalized Quasi-Likelihood, Sarbesh R. Pandeya

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Variable selection is one of the standard ways of selecting models in large scale datasets. It has applications in many fields of research study, especially in large multi-center clinical trials. One of the prominent methods in variable selection is the penalized likelihood, which is both consistent and efficient. However, the penalized selection is significantly challenging under the influence of random (frailty) covariates. It is even more complicated when there is involvement of censoring as it may not have a closed-form solution for the marginal log-likelihood. Therefore, we applied the penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) approach that approximates the solution for such a …