Statistical Models Commons^™

Comparing North American Professional Sports League Season Formats Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Lathan Gregg

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Each NFL, NBA, and MLB season consists of a regular season, in which teams play a set number of scheduled games and a playoff, in which qualifying teams compete for a championship. At the conclusion of each season, teams are ranked based on their performance throughout the season. This study aims to investigate the ability of each league's season format to accurately rank teams using Monte Carlo simulation. Matches between two teams are simulated by using the team’s assigned strength ranks to calculate a winning probability for each team. The winning probabilities are simulated with different skill values, dictating how …

Statistical Approach To Quantifying Interceptability Of Interaction Scenarios For Testing Autonomous Surface Vessels, Benjamin E. Hargis, Yiannis E. Papelis

Modeling, Simulation and Visualization Student Capstone Conference

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to quantifying interceptability of an interaction scenario designed to test collision avoidance of autonomous navigation algorithms. Interceptability is one of many measures to determine the complexity or difficulty of an interaction scenario. This approach uses a combined probability model of capability and intent to create a predicted position probability map for the system under test. Then, intercept-ability is quantified by determining the overlap between the system under test probability map and the intruder’s capability model. The approach is general; however, a demonstration is provided using kinematic capability models and an odometry-based intent model.

Stochastic Optimization To Reduce Aircraft Taxi-In Time At Igia, New Delhi, Rajib Das, Saileswar Ghosh, Rajendra Desai, Pijus Kanti Bhuin, Stuti Agarwal

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Since there is an uncertainty in the arrival times of flights, pre-scheduled allocation of runways and stands and the subsequent first-come-first-served treatment results in a sub-optimal allocation of runways and stands, this is the prime reason for the unusual delays in taxi-in times at IGIA, New Delhi.

We simulated the arrival pattern of aircraft and utilized stochastic optimization to arrive at the best runway-stands allocation for a day. Optimization is done using a GRG Non-Linear algorithm in the Frontline Systems Analytic Solver platform. We applied this model to eight representative scenarios of two different days. Our results show that without …

Design & Analysis Of A Computer Experiment For An Aerospace Conformance Simulation Study, Ryan W. Gryder

Theses and Dissertations

Within NASA's Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration # 1 (ATD-1), Interval Management (IM) is a flight deck tool that enables pilots to achieve or maintain a precise in-trail spacing behind a target aircraft. Previous research has shown that violations of aircraft spacing requirements can occur between an IM aircraft and its surrounding non-IM aircraft when it is following a target on a separate route. This research focused on the experimental design and analysis of a deterministic computer simulation which models our airspace configuration of interest. Using an original space-filling design and Gaussian process modeling, we found that aircraft delay assignments …

Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard Assessment For Southeast Part Of Coastal Region Of China, Sihan Li

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Tropical cyclone (TC) or typhoon wind hazard and risk are significant for China. The return period value of the maximum typhoon wind speed is used to characterize the typhoon wind hazard and assign wind load in building design code. Since the historical surface observations of typhoon wind speed are often scarce and of short period, the typhoon wind hazard assessment is often carried out using the wind field model and TC track model. For a few major cities in the coastal region of mainland China, simple or approximated wind field models and a circular subregion method (CSM) have been used …