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Full-Text Articles in Statistical Models
Session 6: The Size-Biased Lognormal Mixture With The Entropy Regularized Algorithm, Tatjana Miljkovic, Taehan Bae
Session 6: The Size-Biased Lognormal Mixture With The Entropy Regularized Algorithm, Tatjana Miljkovic, Taehan Bae
SDSU Data Science Symposium
A size-biased left-truncated Lognormal (SB-ltLN) mixture is proposed as a robust alternative to the Erlang mixture for modeling left-truncated insurance losses with a heavy tail. The weak denseness property of the weighted Lognormal mixture is studied along with the tail behavior. Explicit analytical solutions are derived for moments and Tail Value at Risk based on the proposed model. An extension of the regularized expectation–maximization (REM) algorithm with Shannon's entropy weights (ewREM) is introduced for parameter estimation and variability assessment. The left-truncated internal fraud data set from the Operational Riskdata eXchange is used to illustrate applications of the proposed model. Finally, …
A Characterization Of Bias Introduced Into Forensic Source Identification When There Is A Subpopulation Structure In The Relevant Source Population., Dylan Borchert, Semhar Michael, Christopher Saunders
A Characterization Of Bias Introduced Into Forensic Source Identification When There Is A Subpopulation Structure In The Relevant Source Population., Dylan Borchert, Semhar Michael, Christopher Saunders
SDSU Data Science Symposium
In forensic source identification the forensic expert is responsible for providing a summary of the evidence that allows for a decision maker to make a logical and coherent decision concerning the source of some trace evidence of interest. The academic consensus is usually that this summary should take the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) that summarizes the likelihood of the trace evidence arising under two competing propositions. These competing propositions are usually referred to as the prosecution’s proposition, that the specified source is the actual source of the trace evidence, and the defense’s proposition, that another source in a …
Session 5: Equipment Finance Credit Risk Modeling - A Case Study In Creative Model Development & Nimble Data Engineering, Edward Krueger, Landon Thompson, Josh Moore
Session 5: Equipment Finance Credit Risk Modeling - A Case Study In Creative Model Development & Nimble Data Engineering, Edward Krueger, Landon Thompson, Josh Moore
SDSU Data Science Symposium
This presentation will focus first on providing an overview of Channel and the Risk Analytics team that performed this case study. Given that context, we’ll then dive into our approach for building the modeling development data set, techniques and tools used to develop and implement the model into a production environment, and some of the challenges faced upon launch. Then, the presentation will pivot to the data engineering pipeline. During this portion, we will explore the application process and what happens to the data we collect. This will include how we extract & store the data along with how it …
Predicting Unplanned Medical Visits Among Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning, Arielle Selya, Eric L. Johnson
Predicting Unplanned Medical Visits Among Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning, Arielle Selya, Eric L. Johnson
SDSU Data Science Symposium
Diabetes poses a variety of medical complications to patients, resulting in a high rate of unplanned medical visits, which are costly to patients and healthcare providers alike. However, unplanned medical visits by their nature are very difficult to predict. The current project draws upon electronic health records (EMR’s) of adult patients with diabetes who received care at Sanford Health between 2014 and 2017. Various machine learning methods were used to predict which patients have had an unplanned medical visit based on a variety of EMR variables (age, BMI, blood pressure, # of prescriptions, # of diagnoses on problem list, A1C, …