Probability Commons^™

Inhomogeneous Branching Random Walks: Incorporating Genealogy And Density Effects, Lauren Ajax, Beatrice Durham, Pratima Hebbar, Cade Johnston, Jiayi Zhang

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

We introduce a novel framework using inhomogeneous branching random walks (BRWs) to model biological processes, specifically by introducing genealogy-dependence in branching rates and displacement distributions to model bacterial colony growth. Current stochastic models often either assume independent and identical behavior of individual agents or incorporate only spatiotemporal inhomogeneity, ignoring the effect of genealogy-based inhomogeneity on the long-time behavior of these processes. Such asymptotics are of independent mathematical interest and are crucial in understanding the emergence of patterns. We propose several inhomogeneous BRW models in 2D space where displacement distributions and branching rates vary with time, space, and genealogy. A combined …

Using Camera-Based Unmarked Spatial Capture-Recapture Modeling To Estimate Reintroduced Elk (Cervus Canadensis) Population Parameters And Distribution In Southeastern Kentucky, Claire Marie Muia

Theses and Dissertations--Forestry and Natural Resources

Estimation of population parameters is important for wildlife management decisions. Elk reintroduced to southeastern Kentucky experienced early irruptive population growth and are currently monitored using a statewide harvest-based statistical population reconstruction model (SPR) across the Kentucky Elk Restoration Zone (KERZ). Because the SPR model is spatially coarse and difficult to scale to the smaller management units comprising the KERZ, we conducted a spatially explicit capture-recapture study using a clustered camera-trapping array deployed for 10 weeks from June–August 2024 to estimate elk population parameters within Management Unit 4. Due to a lack of resights of GPS-marked elk, population parameters were estimated …

Predicting Capture And Survival Probabilities Of The Arizona Tiger Salamander: A Comparison Of Capture-Recapture Models, Brittney Nelson

Murray State Theses and Dissertations

Capture-recapture models are essential tools for estimating population dynamics in ecological studies. A fundamental component of these models is the capture history matrix, which records individual detection over time and serves as the basis for estimating survival and capture probabilities. This presentation explores three statistical approaches to these estimations: the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for CJS, and the Bayesian CJS model. The CJS model provides a likelihood-based framework for estimation, and the HMM CJS incorporates latent states into the model to account for uncertainty in detection. The Bayesian CJS extends this same analysis by integrating prior …

Optimizing Decision-Making In A Cerebral Palsy Model Using Reinforcement Learning, Richard Ampah

Pitzer Senior Theses

This study presents an original interdisciplinary investigation into how reinforcement learning (RL) can model motor and cognitive defects and potentially improve motor and cognitive functions in individuals with cerebral palsy (CP), a non-progressive neurological disorder that impairs movement and adaptability. Integrating computational neuroscience and machine learning, the research applies policy gradient methods and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to simulate adaptive learning in agents with and without CP-related constraints.

The central aim is to compare the cumulative rewards of optimal policies, derived from value iteration, and human-like learning policies using the REINFORCE algorithm, both with and without the Bellman baseline. The …

Early Ctdna Kinetics As A Dynamic Biomarker Of Cancer Treatment Response, Aaron Li, Emil Lou, Kevin Leder, Jasmine Foo

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Time Scale Separation In Life-Long Ovarian Follicles Population Dynamics Model, Romain Yvinec, Frédérique Clément, Guillaume Ballif

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Multi-Type Branching Processes In Time-Varying Environments, Arash Jamshidpey

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Evaluating Novel Approaches For Improving Anadromous Fish Passage In Coastal Rivers, Aaron Bunch

All Dissertations

Few of the world's rivers remain free-flowing for over 1000 km, significantly impacting anadromous fish populations due to dam-induced habitat fragmentation. Three partial migration barriers (low-head dams) on North Carolina's Cape Fear River (USA)—lock and dam 1 (LD1), lock and dam 2 (LD2), and lock and dam 3 (LD3)—impact American shad Alosa sapidissima, Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus, and striped bass Morone saxatilis populations. Mitigation strategies to pass fish upstream have included conservation locking, nature-like fishway construction, and environmental flows (e-flows). This study introduced a novel e-flow (dam submergence flow), tested acoustic double-tagging techniques for tracking American …

Coral Scar Investigation: An Application Of Machine Learning And Computational Biology Methods To Understand Coral Holobiont Response To Various Tissue Loss Diseases, Emily W. Van Buren

Biology Dissertations - Archive

Coral disease is one of the biggest challenges facing coral reefs that actively changes biodiversity resulting in coral decline. With the rising threat of diseases, corals require biomarkers that reflect the immune systems and differences between common coral tissue loss diseases to best assist in coral restoration efforts. To obtain these biomarkers, my dissertation leverages two previously published datasets from two tissue loss disease exposure studies to investigate genes that are relevant for coral immune pathways, disease susceptibility, and classification between the diseases. In Chapter 2, I use comparative computational biology tools and protein assays to identify the melanin cascade …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Langevin Dynamic Models For Smfret Dynamic Shift, David Frost, Keisha Cook Dr, Hugo Sanabria Dr

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

A Novel Family Of Chain Binomial Models To Investigate Correlated Vaccination And Infection Rates In Sveirs Epidemic Dynamics, Divine Wanduku

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Utilizing Markov Chains To Estimate Allele Progression Through Generations, Ronit Gandhi

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

All populations display patterns in allele frequencies over time. Some alleles cease to exist, while some grow to become the norm. These frequencies can shift or stay constant based on the conditions the population lives in. If in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, the allele frequencies stay constant. Most populations, however, have bias from environmental factors, sexual preferences, other organisms, etc. We propose a stochastic Markov chain model to study allele progression across generations. In such a model, the allele frequencies in the next generation depend only on the frequencies in the current one.

We use this model to track a recessive allele …

Machine Learning Methods For Prediction Of Human Infectious Virus And Imputation Of Hla Alleles, Xiaoqing Gao

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

This dissertation contains three Chapters. The following is a concise description of each Chapters.

In Chapter 1, we introduced the Random Forest, a machine learning method, to foresee whether a virus is capable of infecting humans. The Covid pandemic informs us the importance of predicting the ability of a zoonotic virus that can infect humans from its genomic sequence. We used the -mer with and as features of a virus to predict if it can affect humans. We further employed the Boruta algorithm to select the important features, then fed those important features into the Random Forest method to train …

Rewriting The Rules For Diagnostics: Implications Of Probability And Measure Theory For Sars-Cov-2 Testing, Paul Patrone, Anthony Kearsley

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Optimal Time-Dependent Classification For Diagnostic Testing, Prajakta P. Bedekar, Paul Patrone, Anthony Kearsley

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Identification And Characterization Of Forest Fire Risk Zones Leveraging Machine Learning Methods, Joshua Balson, Matt Chinchilla, Cam Lu, Jeff Washburn, Nibhrat Lohia

SMU Data Science Review

Across the United States, record numbers of wildfires are observed costing billions of dollars in property damage, polluting the environment, and putting lives at risk. The ability of emergency management professionals, city planners, and private entities such as insurance companies to determine if an area is at higher risk of a fire breaking out has never been greater. This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying and characterizing zones with increased risks of forest fires. Methods involving machine learning techniques use the widely available and recorded data, thus making it possible to implement the tool quickly.

Statistical Methods For Resolving Intratumor Heterogeneity With Single-Cell Dna Sequencing, Alexander Davis

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

Tumor cells have heterogeneous genotypes, which drives progression and treatment resistance. Such genetic intratumor heterogeneity plays a role in the process of clonal evolution that underlies tumor progression and treatment resistance. Single-cell DNA sequencing is a promising experimental method for studying intratumor heterogeneity, but brings unique statistical challenges in interpreting the resulting data. Researchers lack methods to determine whether sufficiently many cells have been sampled from a tumor. In addition, there are no proven computational methods for determining the ploidy of a cell, a necessary step in the determination of copy number. In this work, software for calculating probabilities from …

Network Structure And Dynamics Of Biological Systems, Deena R. Schmidt

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Characterizing The Permanence And Stationary Distribution For A Family Of Malaria Stochastic Models, Divine Wanduku

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Unified Methods For Feature Selection In Large-Scale Genomic Studies With Censored Survival Outcomes, Lauren Spirko-Burns, Karthik Devarajan

COBRA Preprint Series

One of the major goals in large-scale genomic studies is to identify genes with a prognostic impact on time-to-event outcomes which provide insight into the disease's process. With rapid developments in high-throughput genomic technologies in the past two decades, the scientific community is able to monitor the expression levels of tens of thousands of genes and proteins resulting in enormous data sets where the number of genomic features is far greater than the number of subjects. Methods based on univariate Cox regression are often used to select genomic features related to survival outcome; however, the Cox model assumes proportional hazards …

Season-Ahead Forecasting Of Water Storage And Irrigation Requirements – An Application To The Southwest Monsoon In India, Arun Ravindranath, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, Paulina Concha Larrauri

Publications and Research

Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years …

Effect Of Neuromodulation Of Short-Term Plasticity On Information Processing In Hippocampal Interneuron Synapses, Elham Bayat Mokhtari

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Neurons convey information about the complex dynamic environment in the form of signals. Computational neuroscience provides a theoretical foundation toward enhancing our understanding of nervous system. The aim of this dissertation is to present techniques to study the brain and how it processes information in particular neurons in hippocampus.

We begin with a brief review of the history of neuroscience and biological background of basic neurons. To appreciate the importance of information theory, familiarity with the information theoretic basics is required, these basics are presented in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, we use information theory to estimate the amount of …

Models For Hsv Shedding Must Account For Two Levels Of Overdispersion, Amalia Magaret

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We have frequently implemented crossover studies to evaluate new therapeutic interventions for genital herpes simplex virus infection. The outcome measured to assess the efficacy of interventions on herpes disease severity is the viral shedding rate, defined as the frequency of detection of HSV on the genital skin and mucosa. We performed a simulation study to ascertain whether our standard model, which we have used previously, was appropriately considering all the necessary features of the shedding data to provide correct inference. We simulated shedding data under our standard, validated assumptions and assessed the ability of 5 different models to reproduce the …

Using Capture-Mark-Recapture Techniques To Estimate Detection Probabilities & Fidelity Of Expression For The Critically Endangered James Spinymussel (Pleurobema Collina)., Alaina C. Esposito

Masters Theses, 2010-2019

The critically endangered James Spinymussel (Pleurobema collina) is a species of freshwater mussel endemic to Virginia’s James and Dan River basins. In the last 20 years, P. collina has experienced a substantial decline in numbers and currently occupies approximately 10% of its original habitat; however, little information is known about this species to assist in conservation. A 230-meter reach of transitional habitat in Swift Run was selected for repeat observations to estimate detection probabilities using a Capture-Mark-Recapture framework. In June 2014, visual scouting began to locate and tag P. collina (including other mussels in the community) with PIT …

Natural Phenomena As Potential Influence On Social And Political Behavior: The Earth’S Magnetic Field, Jackie R. East

Theses and Dissertations--Political Science

Researchers use natural phenomena in a number of disciplines to help explain human behavioral outcomes. Research regarding the potential effects of magnetic fields on animal and human behavior indicates that fields could influence outcomes of interest to social scientists. Tests so far have been limited in scope. This work is a preliminary evaluation of whether the earth’s magnetic field influences human behavior it examines the baseline relationship exhibited between geomagnetic readings and a host of social and political outcomes. The emphasis on breadth of topical coverage in these statistical trials, rather than on depth of development for any one model, …

Random Search Models Of Foraging Behavior: Theory, Simulation, And Observation, Ben C. Nolting

Department of Mathematics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Many organisms, from bacteria to primates, use stochastic movement patterns to find food. These movement patterns, known as search strategies, have recently be- come a focus of ecologists interested in identifying universal properties of optimal foraging behavior. In this dissertation, I describe three contributions to this field. First, I propose a way to extend Charnov's Marginal Value Theorem to the spatially explicit framework of stochastic search strategies. Next, I describe simulations that compare the efficiencies of sensory and memory-based composite search strategies, which involve switching between different behavioral modes. Finally, I explain a new behavioral analysis protocol for identifying the …

The Torsion Angle Of Random Walks, Mu He

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

In this thesis, we study the expected mean of the torsion angle of an n-step
equilateral random walk in 3D. We consider the random walk is generated within a confining sphere or without a confining sphere: given three consecutive vectors ^→e₁ , ^→e₂ , and ^→e₃ of the random walk then the vectors ^→e₁ and ^→e₂ define a plane and the vectors ^→e₂ and ^→e₃ define a second plane. The angle between the two planes is called the torsion angle of the three vectors. Algorithms are …

Modeling And Mathematical Analysis Of Plant Models In Ecology, Eric A. Eager

Department of Mathematics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Population dynamics tries to explain in a simple mechanistic way the variations of the size and structure of biological populations. In this dissertation we use mathematical modeling and analysis to study the various aspects of the dynamics of plant populations and their seed banks.

In Chapter 2 we investigate the impact of structural model uncertainty by considering different nonlinear recruitment functions in an integral projection model for Cirsium canescens. We show that, while having identical equilibrium populations, these two models can elicit drastically different transient dynamics. We then derive a formula for the sensitivity of the equilibrium population to …

Approximation Methods For Singular Diffusions Arising In Genetics, Nacer E. Abrouk

Mathematical Sciences Technical Reports (MSTR)

Stochastic models in population genetics leading to diffusion equations are considered. When the drift and the square of the diffusion coefficients are polynomials, an infinite system of ordinary differential equations for the moments of the diffusion process can be derived using the Martingale property. An example is provided to show how the classical Fokker-Planck Equation approach may not be appropriate for this derivation. A Gauss-Galerkin method for approximating the laws of the diffusion, originally proposed by Dawson (1980), is examined. In the few special cases for which exact solutions are known, comparison shows that the method is accurate and the …