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Articles 1 - 9 of 9
Full-Text Articles in Other Statistics and Probability
(R2161) Robust Optimization Of Industrial Hazardous Waste Location-Routing Problem Considering Response Actions To Environmental Risk, Sharareh Teimoori, Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi, Seyyed Esmaeil Najafi, Navid Rafiei
(R2161) Robust Optimization Of Industrial Hazardous Waste Location-Routing Problem Considering Response Actions To Environmental Risk, Sharareh Teimoori, Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi, Seyyed Esmaeil Najafi, Navid Rafiei
Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)
The management of hazardous industrial waste has emerged as a significant global challenge due to rapid technological advancements. Industrial hazardous waste management systems must be designed not only to be cost-effective but also to minimize environmental risks. This study proposes a mixed-integer programming model for the location-routing of industrial hazardous waste that incorporates both primary and secondary environmental risks, along with suitable response actions. Furthermore, a scenario-based robust optimization model is developed to address uncertainties in the quantities of industrial hazardous waste. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the applicability and comparative performance of the nominal and robust models. …
A Copula-Based Framework For Multivariate Count Time Series With Mixed Marginal Distributions, Dimuthu Fernando, Yuxin Wen, Wimarsha Jayanetti
A Copula-Based Framework For Multivariate Count Time Series With Mixed Marginal Distributions, Dimuthu Fernando, Yuxin Wen, Wimarsha Jayanetti
Engineering Faculty Articles and Research
We developed a class of multivariate integer-valued time series models using copula theory. Each count time series is modeled as a Markov chain, with serial dependence characterized through copula-based transition probabilities for Poisson and negative binomial marginals. Cross-sectional dependence is modeled via a trivariate Gaussian or a “t-copula”, allowing for both positive and negative correlations and providing a flexible dependence structure. Model parameters are estimated using likelihood-based inference, where the trivariate Gaussian or t-copula integrals are evaluated through standard randomized Monte Carlo methods. Simulation results, along with an analysis of annual counts of major hurricanes (Category 3+) across the North …
A New Approach To Generate Combinatorial Patterns In Logical Analysis Of Data And Its Application To Predict College Retention, Salihah Ahmed E. Jaafari
A New Approach To Generate Combinatorial Patterns In Logical Analysis Of Data And Its Application To Predict College Retention, Salihah Ahmed E. Jaafari
Theses and Dissertations
Student retention and degree completion remain central challenges for higher-education institutions, with significant implications for student success, institutional effectiveness, and public accountability. While advances in predictive analytics have enabled earlier identification of students at risk of withdrawal, many commonly used machine learning approaches suffer from limited interpretability, constraining their practical usefulness for advising, intervention, and policy decision making. This dissertation addresses the problem of predicting student persistence by developing and evaluating optimization based, interpretable classification models within the Logical Analysis of Data (LAD) framework. Building on existing LAD formulations, this research introduces two novel pattern generation models, the Best Term …
Bayesball : A Comprehensive Framework For Predicting Ucl Injury, Brady M. Pinter, Will Best Ph.D.
Bayesball : A Comprehensive Framework For Predicting Ucl Injury, Brady M. Pinter, Will Best Ph.D.
SPARK Symposium Presentations
Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) reconstruction, commonly referred to as Tommy John Surgery, has seen a significant rise among Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers, prompting growing interest in identifying the mechanical and performance-based factors that contribute to injury risk. While previous studies have examined these relationships using traditional frequentist approaches separately, this study combines multiple different model techniques to present a broad framework for finding significant predictors of UCL Surgery. These models include Lasso and Ridge Regression, Principal Component Regression (PCR) , Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS) , Random Forest, Multiple Linear Regression, and a Bayesian Statistical Model. Using these models, …
Information Theory Analysis Of The Solar Wind Magnetic Structures For Space Weather Prediction, Katherine Holland
Information Theory Analysis Of The Solar Wind Magnetic Structures For Space Weather Prediction, Katherine Holland
Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses
Forecasting space weather at Earth is highly complicated, because of the limited measurements of the dynamic processes in the Sun that span multiple temporal, spatial, and energy-scales. The solar wind is a highly structured, multi-scale, evolving plasma and consists of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), stream interaction regions (SIRs), expanding flux tubes (Borovsky, 2008), and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) discontinuities and fluctuations. The aim of this research is to improve our understanding of the evolution and dissipation of different scale-size solar wind magnetic structures as they move from the Sun-Earth Lagrange point 1 (L1) to Earth's bow shock and, ultimately, to …
Estimation Of Net Premium For Flight Delay Insurance Using The Aggregate Loss Model: A Case Study Of Indonesia Otas, Azka Nurul Husna, Yulial Hikmah, Ira Rosianal Hikmah
Estimation Of Net Premium For Flight Delay Insurance Using The Aggregate Loss Model: A Case Study Of Indonesia Otas, Azka Nurul Husna, Yulial Hikmah, Ira Rosianal Hikmah
Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia
Air transportation, as one of the most chosen transportation modes, is frequently susceptible to delays. Flight Delay Insurance offers a vital solution to mitigate the financial losses associated with this risk. Premium pricing is a key factor influencing the decision to purchase this insurance, particularly on Online Travel Agent (OTA) platforms where product offerings are often highly comparable. The aggregate loss method is employed herein to ascertain the net premium (or pure premium) price. The loss severity component (X) is modeled using an empirical distribution, while the loss frequency component (N) is modeled using a Negative Binomial distribution with parameters …
A Probabilistic Modeling Analysis Of The Longitudinal Immune Response To Infection And Vaccination Across Demographic Groups And Pulmonary Symptoms, James O'Hanlon, Kaitlyn Sullivan, Lyndsey M. Muehling, Glenda Canderan, Jie Sun, Judith A. Woodfolk, Jeffrey M. Wilson, Rayanne A. Luke
A Probabilistic Modeling Analysis Of The Longitudinal Immune Response To Infection And Vaccination Across Demographic Groups And Pulmonary Symptoms, James O'Hanlon, Kaitlyn Sullivan, Lyndsey M. Muehling, Glenda Canderan, Jie Sun, Judith A. Woodfolk, Jeffrey M. Wilson, Rayanne A. Luke
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Antibody and cytokine kinetics describe the dynamic response to immune events such as infection and vaccination. These dynamics are not fully understood, and mathematical characterization may help explain variability across demographic groups and pulmonary symptoms post-acute infection. We fit time-dependent probability models to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) data to obtain distributions of longitudinal antibody response and cytokine values. To assess differences between groups, an overlap metric is applied to the modeled response curves. Our antibody models suggest significant differences between male and female populations and demonstrate deficient antibody responses of less-healthy groups such as smokers. Our cytokine …
Applications Of Machine Learning For Evaluating Downward-Coupled Stratosphere-Troposphere Interactions And Subseasonal Forecasts Of Opportunity, Elena M. Fernandez
Applications Of Machine Learning For Evaluating Downward-Coupled Stratosphere-Troposphere Interactions And Subseasonal Forecasts Of Opportunity, Elena M. Fernandez
Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)
Wintertime stratospheric dynamics provide key information for understanding atmospheric teleconnections and improving subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions on timescales of two weeks to two months. Periods of enhanced predictability, often referred to as forecasts of opportunity, arise from large-scale teleconnected variability, within which the stratosphere serves as an important precursor for tropospheric states, such as near-surface temperatures. While traditional diagnostics of downward coupled stratosphere-troposphere interactions typically rely on zonal-mean representations of wind and geopotential height, this dissertation presents an alternative vortex-centric framework through metrics that capture the daily geometric and dynamical evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex. The proposed stratospheric …
Learning Weibull Loss Severity Models From Truncated And Censored Data, Majed Alkhasha
Learning Weibull Loss Severity Models From Truncated And Censored Data, Majed Alkhasha
Graduate Studies Theses and Dissertations 2026
In modern actuarial science and risk management, due to various loss control mechanisms, observed severity losses are typically left-truncated at the deductible, right-censored at the policy limit, and scaled by a pre-specified co-insurance factor. This results in two types of actuarial payment random variables: payment-per-payment (PPP) and payment-per-loss (PPL). To learn ground-up Weibull loss severity models from PPP and PPL sample data, we implement two estimation techniques: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the dynamic Method of Trimmed Moments (MTM). MLE is employed to obtain efficient estimates of the Weibull shape and scale parameters. However, MLE may assign unnecessarily large point …