Other Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Posterior Propriety Of An Objective Prior For Generalized Hierarchical Normal Linear Models, Cong Lin, Dongchu Sun, Chengyuan Song

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Bayesian Hierarchical models has been widely used in modern statistical application. To deal with the data having complex structures, we propose a generalized hierarchical normal linear (GHNL) model which accommodates arbitrarily many levels, usual design matrices and ‘vanilla’ covariance matrices. Objective hyperpriors can be employed for the GHNL model to express ignorance or match frequentist properties, yet the common objective Bayesian approaches are infeasible or fraught with danger in hierarchical modelling. To tackle this issue, [Berger, J., Sun, D., & Song, C. (2020b). An objective prior for hyperparameters in normal hierarchical models. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 178, 104606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2020.104606] …

Fully Bayesian Analysis Of Relevance Vector Machine Classification With Probit Link Function For Imbalanced Data Problem, Wenyang Wang, Dongchu Sun, Peng Shao, Haibo Kuang, Cong Sui

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

The original RVM classification model uses the logistic link function to build the likelihood function making the model hard to be conducted since the posterior of the weight parameter has no closed-form solution. This article proposes the probit link function approach instead of the logistic one for the likelihood function in the RVM classification model, namely PRVM (RVM with the probit link function). We show that the posterior of the weight parameter in PRVM follows the Multivariate Normal distribution and achieves a closed-form solution. A latent variable is needed in our algorithms to simplify the Bayesian computation greatly, and its …

Development Of A Multiplex Real-Time Pcr Assay For Predicting Macrolide And Tetracycline Resistance Associated With Bacterial Pathogens Of Bovine Respiratory Disease, Enakshy Dutta, John Loy, Caitlyn A. Deal, Emily L. Wynn, Michael L. Clawson, Jennifer Clarke, Bing Wang

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is an emerging concern that may threaten both animal and public health. Rapid and accurate detection of AMR is essential for prudent drug therapy selection during BRD outbreaks. This study aimed to develop a multiplex quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction assay (qPCR) to provide culture-independent information regarding the phenotypic AMR status of BRD cases and an alternative to the gold-standard, culture-dependent test. Bovine clinical samples (297 lung and 111 nasal) collected in Nebraska were subjected to qPCR quantification of macrolide (MAC) and tetracycline (TET) resistance genes and gold-standard determinations of AMR of …

A Review Of Spatial Causal Inference Methods For Environmental And Epidemiological Applications, Brian J. Reich, Shu Yang, Yawen Guan, Andrew B. Giffin, Matthew J. Miller, Ana Rappold

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

The scientific rigor and computational methods of causal inference have had great impacts on many disciplines but have only recently begun to take hold in spatial applications. Spatial causal inference poses analytic challenges due to complex correlation structures and interference between the treatment at one location and the outcomes at others. In this paper, we review the current literature on spatial causal inference and identify areas of future work. We first discuss methods that exploit spatial structure to account for unmeasured confounding variables. We then discuss causal analysis in the presence of spatial interference including several common assumptions used to …

Treatment Of Inconclusive Results In Firearms Error Rate Studies, Heike Hofmann, Susan Vanderplas, Alicia L. Carriquiry

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

★ Defining error rates for firearms evidence ★ Impact of inconclusive decisions on error rates ★ Predictive probabilities and errors

A Spectral Adjustment For Spatial Confounding, Yawen Guan, Garritt L. Page, Brian J. Reich, Massimo Ventrucci, Shu Yang

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Adjusting for an unmeasured confounder is generally an intractable problem, but in the spatial setting it may be possible under certain conditions. In this paper, we derive necessary conditions on the coherence between the treatment variable of interest and the unmeasured confounder that ensure the causal effect of the treatment is estimable. We specify our model and assumptions in the spectral domain to allow for different degrees of confounding at different spatial resolutions. The key assumption that ensures identifiability is that confounding present at global scales dissipates at local scales. We show that this assumption in the spectral domain is …

The Local Stability Of A Modified Multi-Strain Sir Model For Emerging Viral Strains, Miguel Fudolig, Reka Howard

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

We study a novel multi-strain SIR epidemic model with selective immunity by vaccination. A newer strain is made to emerge in the population when a preexisting strain has reached equilbrium. We assume that this newer strain does not exhibit cross-immunity with the original strain, hence those who are vaccinated and recovered from the original strain become susceptible to the newer strain. Recent events involving the COVID-19 virus shows that it is possible for a viral strain to emerge from a population at a time when the influenza virus, a well-known virus with a vaccine readily available, is active in a …

Cost Effectiveness Of Sample Pooling To Test For Sars-Cov-2, Baha Abdalhamid, Christopher Richard Bilder, Jodi Louise Garrett, Peter Charles Iwen

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Exact Distribution Of Linkage Disequilibrium In The Presence Of Mutation, Selection, Or Minor Allele Frequency Filtering, Jiayi Qu, Stephen D. Kachman, Dorian Garrick, Rohan L. Fernando, Hao Cheng

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Linkage disequilibrium (LD), often expressed in terms of the squared correlation (r2) between allelic values at two loci, is an important concept in many branches of genetics and genomics. Genetic drift and recombination have opposite effects on LD, and thus r2 will keep changing until the effects of these two forces are counterbalanced. Several approximations have been used to determine the expected value of r2 at equilibrium in the presence or absence of mutation. In this paper, we propose a probability-based approach to compute the exact distribution of allele frequencies at two loci in a finite population at any generation …

Association Between Baseline Abundance Of Peptoniphilus, A Gram-Positive Anaerobic Coccus, And Wound Healing Outcomes Of Dfus, Kyung R. Min, Adriana Galvis, Katherine L. Baquerizo Nole, Rohita Sinha, Jennifer Clarke, Robert S. Kirsner, Dragana Ajdic

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) lead to nearly 100,000 lower limb amputations annually in the United States. DFUs are colonized by complex microbial communities, and infection is one of the most common reasons for diabetes-related hospitalizations and amputations. In this study, we examined how DFU microbiomes respond to initial sharp debridement and off- loading and how the initial composition associates with 4 week healing outcomes. We employed 16S rRNA next generation sequencing to perform microbial profiling on 50 sam- ples collected from 10 patients with vascularized neuropathic DFUs. Debrided wound sam- ples were obtained at initial visit and after one week …

Representation Of Features As Images With Neighborhood Dependencies For Compatibility With Convolutional Neural Networks, Omid Bazgir, Ruibo Zhang, Saugato Rahman Dhruba, Raziur Rahman, Souparno Ghosh, Ranadip Pal

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Deep learning with Convolutional Neural Networks has shown great promise in image-based classification and enhancement but is often unsuitable for predictive modeling using features without spatial correlations. We present a feature representation approach termed REFINED (REpresentation of Features as Images with NEighborhood Dependencies) to arrange high-dimensional vectors in a compact image form conducible for CNN-based deep learning. We consider the similarities between features to generate a concise feature map in the form of a two-dimensional image by minimizing the pairwise distance values following a Bayesian Metric Multidimensional Scaling Approach. We hypothesize that this approach enables embedded feature extraction and, integrated …

Perceived Neighborhood: Preferences Versus Actualities, Saeed Moradi, Ali Nejat, Da Hu, Souparno Ghosh

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Housing recovery plays a key role in the overall restoration of a community. A multitude of factors affect housing recovery, many of which are associated with interactions of residents with their perceived neighborhoods. Targeting perceived neighborhoods rather than administratively defined measures of land helps with devising recovery plans that could better address social preferences of the residents. However, such measures are commonly subject to collection of information via expensive and time-consuming surveys. The current research aims to contribute to the domain by exploring the relationship between perception of households of their neighborhood anchors (perceived anchors) and the anchors that exist …

In Praise Of Partially Interpretable Predictors, Tri Le, Bertrand S. Clarke

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Often there is an uninterpretable model that is statistically as good as, if not better than, a successful interpretable model. Accordingly, if one restricts attention to interpretable models, then one may sacrifice predictive power or other desirable properties. A minimal condition for an interpretable, usually parametric, model to be better than another model is that the first should have smallermean-squared error or integratedmean-squared error.We show through a series of examples that this is often not the case and give the asymptotic forms of a variety of interpretable, partially interpretable, and noninterpretable methods. We find techniques that combine aspects of both …

Tumor Ablation Due To Inhomogeneous Anisotropic Diffusion In Generic Three-Dimensional Topologies, Erdi Kara, Aminur Rahman, Eugenio Aulisa, Souparno Ghosh

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

In recent decades computer-aided technologies have become prevalent in medicine, however, cancer drugs are often only tested on in vitro cell lines from biopsies. We derive a full three-dimensional model of inhomogeneous -anisotropic diffusion in a tumor region coupled to a binary population model, which simulates in vivo scenarios faster than traditional cell-line tests. The diffusion tensors are acquired using diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging from a patient diagnosed with glioblastoma multiform. Then we numerically simulate the full model with finite element methods and produce drug concentration heat maps, apoptosis hotspots, and dose-response curves. Finally, predictions are made about optimal …

Statistical Downscaling With Spatial Misalignment: Application To Wildland Fire Pm2.5 Concentration Forecasting, Suman Majumder, Yawen Guan, Brian J. Reich, Susan O’Neill, Ana G. Rappold

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Fine particulate matter, PM_2.5, has been documented to have adverse health effects, and wildland fires are a major contributor to PM_2.5 air pollution in the USA. Forecasters use numerical models to predict PM_2.5 concentrations to warn the public of impending health risk. Statistical methods are needed to calibrate the numerical model forecast using monitor data to reduce bias and quantify uncertainty. Typical model calibration techniques do not allow for errors due to misalignment of geographic locations. We propose a spatiotemporal downscaling methodology that uses image registration techniques to identify the spatial misalignment and accounts for and …

Probabilistic Modeling Of Personalized Drug Combinations From Integrated Chemical Screen And Molecular Data In Sarcoma, Noah E. Berlow, Rishi Rikhi, Mathew Geltzeiler, Jinu Abraham, Matthew N. Svalina, Lara E. Davis, Erin Wise, Maria Mancini, Jonathan Noujaim, Atiya Mansoor, Michael J. Quist, Kevin L. Matlock, Martin W. Goros, Brian S. Hernandez, Yee C. Doung, Khin Thway, Tomohide Tsukahara, Jun Nishio, Elaine T. Huang, Susan Airhart, Carol J. Bult, Regina Gandour-Edwards, Robert G. Maki, Robin L. Jones, Joel E. Michalek, Milan Milovancev, Souparno Ghosh, Ranadip Pal, Charles Keller

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Background: Cancer patients with advanced disease routinely exhaust available clinical regimens and lack actionable genomic medicine results, leaving a large patient population without effective treatments options when their disease inevitably progresses. To address the unmet clinical need for evidence-based therapy assignment when standard clinical approaches have failed, we have developed a probabilistic computational modeling approach which integrates molecular sequencing data with functional assay data to develop patient-specific combination cancer treatments. Methods: Tissue taken from a murine model of alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma was used to perform single agent drug screening and DNA/RNA sequencing experiments; results integrated via our computational modeling approach identified …

Informative Group Testing For Multiplex Assays, Christopher R. Bilder, Joshua M. Tebbs, Christopher S. Mcmahan

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Infectious disease testing frequently takes advantage of two tools–group testing and multiplex assays–to make testing timely and cost effective. Until the work of Tebbs et al. (2013) and Hou et al. (2017), there was no research available to understand how best to apply these tools simultaneously. This recent work focused on applications where each individual is considered to be identical in terms of the probability of disease. However, risk-factor information, such as past behavior and presence of symptoms, is very often available on each individual to allow one to estimate individual-specific probabilities. The purpose of our paper is to propose …

Functional Random Forest With Applications In Dose-Response Predictions, Raziur Rahman, Saugato Rahman Dhruba, Souparno Ghosh, Ranadip Pal

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Drug sensitivity prediction for individual tumors is a significant challenge in personalized medicine. Current modeling approaches consider prediction of a single metric of the drug response curve such as AUC or IC₅₀. However, the single summary metric of a dose-response curve fails to provide the entire drug sensitivity profile which can be used to design the optimal dose for a patient. In this article, we assess the problem of predicting the complete dose-response curve based on genetic characterizations. We propose an enhancement to the popular ensemble-based Random Forests approach that can directly predict the entire functional profile of …

Cost-Effective Surveillance For Infectious Diseases Through Specimen Pooling And Multiplex Assays, Christopher Bilder, Joshua Tebbs, Christopher Mcmahan

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

To develop specimen pooling algorithms that reduce the number of tests needed to test individuals for infectious diseases with multiplex assays.

Genomic Prediction Using Canopy Coverage Image And Genotypic Information In Soybean Via A Hybrid Model, Reka Howard, Diego Jarquin

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Prediction techniques are important in plant breeding as they provide a tool for selection that is more efficient and economical than traditional phenotypic and pedigree based selection. The conventional genomic prediction models include molecular marker information to predict the phenotype. With the development of new phenomics techniques we have the opportunity to collect image data on the plants, and extend the traditional genomic prediction models where we incorporate diverse set of information collected on the plants. In our research, we developed a hybrid matrix model that incorporates molecular marker and canopy coverage information as a weighted linear combination to predict …

Post-Er Stress Biogenesis Of Golgi Is Governed By Giantin, Cole P. Frisbie, Alexander Y. Lushnikov, Alexey V. Krasnoslobodtsev, Jean-Jack Riethoven, Jennifer L. Clarke, Elena I. Stepchenkova, Armen Petrosyan

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Background: The Golgi apparatus undergoes disorganization in response to stress, but it is able to restore compact and perinuclear structure under recovery. This self-organization mechanism is significant for cellular homeostasis, but remains mostly elusive, as does the role of giantin, the largest Golgi matrix dimeric protein. Methods: In HeLa and different prostate cancer cells, we used the model of cellular stress induced by Brefeldin A (BFA). The conformational structure of giantin was assessed by proximity ligation assay and atomic force microscopy. The post-BFA distribution of Golgi resident enzymes was examined by 3D SIM high-resolution microscopy. Results: We detected that giantin …

Recursive Model For Dose-Time Responses In Pharmacological Studies, Saugato Rahman Dhruba, Aminur Rahman, Raziur Rahman, Souparno Ghosh, Ranadip Pal

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Background: Clinical studies often track dose-response curves of subjects over time. One can easily model the dose-response curve at each time point with Hill equation, but such a model fails to capture the temporal evolution of the curves. On the other hand, one can use Gompertz equation to model the temporal behaviors at each dose without capturing the evolution of time curves across dosage

Results: In this article, we propose a parametric model for dose-time responses that follows Gompertz law in time and Hill equation across dose approximately. We derive a recursion relation for dose-response curves over time capturing the …

Existing And Potential Statistical And Computational Approaches For The Analysis Of 3d Ct Images Of Plant Roots, Zheng Xu, Camilo Valdes, Jennifer Clarke

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Scanning technologies based on X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) have been widely used in many scientific fields including medicine, nanosciences and materials research. Considerable progress in recent years has been made in agronomic and plant science research thanks to X-ray CT technology. X-ray CT image-based phenotyping methods enable high-throughput and non-destructive measuring and inference of root systems, which makes downstream studies of complex mechanisms of plants during growth feasible. An impressive amount of plant CT scanning data has been collected, but how to analyze these data efficiently and accurately remains a challenge. We review statistical and computational approaches that have been …

Characterization Of Soybean Protein Adhesives Modified By Xanthan Gum, Chen Feng, Fang Wang, Zheng Xu, Huilin Sui, Yong Fang, Xiaozhi Tang, Xinchun Shen

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

The aim of this study was to provide a basis for the preparation of medical adhesives from soybean protein sources. Soybean protein (SP) adhesives mixed with different concentrations of xanthan gum (XG) were prepared. Their adhesive features were evaluated by physicochemical parameters and an in vitro bone adhesion assay. The results showed that the maximal adhesion strength was achieved in 5% SP adhesive with 0.5% XG addition, which was 2.6-fold higher than the SP alone. The addition of XG significantly increased the hydrogen bond and viscosity, as well as increased the β-sheet content but decreased the α-helix content in the …

Development Of 11-Plex Mol-Pcr Assay For The Rapid Screening Of Samples For Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia Coli, Travis A. Woods, Heather M. Mendez, Sandy Ortega, Xiaorong Shi, David Marx, Jianfa Bai, Rodney A. Moxley, T. G. Nagaraja, Steven W. Graves, Alina Deshpande

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Strains of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) are a serious threat to the health, with approximately half of the STEC related food-borne illnesses attributable to contaminated beef. We developed an assay that was able to screen samples for several important STEC associated serogroups (O26, O45, O103, O104, O111, O121, O145, O157) and three major virulence factors (eae, stx1, stx2) in a rapid and multiplexed format using the Multiplex oligonucleotide ligation-PCR (MOL-PCR) assay chemistry. This assay detected unique STEC DNA signatures and is meant to be used on samples from various sources related to beef production, providing a multiplex and high-throughput …

Application Of Transfer Learning For Cancer Drug Sensitivity Prediction, Saugato Rahman Dhruba, Raziur Rahman, Kevin Matlock, Souparno Ghosh, Ranadip Pal

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Background: In precision medicine, scarcity of suitable biological data often hinders the design of an appropriate predictive model. In this regard, large scale pharmacogenomics studies, like CCLE and GDSC hold the promise to mitigate the issue. However, one cannot directly employ data from multiple sources together due to the existing distribution shift in data. One way to solve this problem is to utilize the transfer learning methodologies tailored to fit in this specific context.

Results: In this paper, we present two novel approaches for incorporating information from a secondary database for improving the prediction in a target database. The first …

Investigation Of Model Stacking For Drug Sensitivity Prediction, Kevin Matlock, Carlos De Niz, Raziur Rahman, Souparno Ghosh, Ranadip Pal

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Background: A significant problem in precision medicine is the prediction of drug sensitivity for individual cancer cell lines. Predictive models such as Random Forests have shown promising performance while predicting from individual genomic features such as gene expressions. However, accessibility of various other forms of data types including information on multiple tested drugs necessitates the examination of designing predictive models incorporating the various data types.

Results: We explore the predictive performance of model stacking and the effect of stacking on the predictive bias and squarred error. In addition we discuss the analytical underpinnings supporting the advantages of stacking in reducing …

Heterogeneity Aware Random Forest For Drug Sensitivity Prediction, Raziur Rahman, Kevin Matlock, Souparno Ghosh, Ranadip Pal

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Samples collected in pharmacogenomics databases typically belong to various cancer types. For designing a drug sensitivity predictive model from such a database, a natural question arises whether a model trained on diverse inter-tumor heterogeneous samples will perform similar to a predictive model that takes into consideration the heterogeneity of the samples in model training and prediction. We explore this hypothesis and observe that ensemble model predictions obtained when cancer type is known out-perform predictions when that information is withheld even when the samples sizes for the former is considerably lower than the combined sample size. To incorporate the heterogeneity idea …

Assessing The Impact Of Retreat Mechanisms In A Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration, Kelsey L. Ruckert, Gary Shaffer, David Pollard, Yawen Guan, Tony E. Wong, Chris E. Forest, Klaus Keller

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and …

Perennial Warm-Season Grasses For Producing Biofuel And Enhancing Soil Properties: An Alternative To Corn Residue Removal, Humberto Blanco-Canqui, Robert B. Mitchell, Virginia L. Jin, Marty R. Schmer, Kent M. Eskridge

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Removal of corn (Zea mays L.) residues at high rates for biofuel and other off-farm uses may negatively impact soil and the environment in the long term. Biomass removal from perennial warm-season grasses (WSGs) grown in marginally-productive lands could be an alternative to corn residue removal as biofuel feedstocks while controlling water and wind erosion, sequestering carbon (C), cycling water and nutrients, and enhancing other soil ecosystem services. We compared wind and water erosion potential, soil compaction, soil hydraulic properties, soil organic C (SOC), and soil fertility between biomass removal from WSGs and corn residue removal from rainfed no-till …