Other Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Exploring Healthcare Chatbot Information Presentation: Applying Hierarchical Bayesian Regression And Inductive Thematic Analysis In A Mixed Methods Study, Samuel Nelson Koscelny

All Theses

High blood pressure, also known as hypertension, significantly increases the risk of heart disease and stroke, which are leading causes of death in the United States. While contributing to over 691,000 deaths in 2021 alone in the United States (U.S.), it also imposes immense economic burden on the healthcare system, costing approximately $131 billion annually. One way to address this issue is for increased self-care behaviors and medication adherence, both of which require sufficient health literacy. Despite the importance of health literacy, 90% of U.S. adults struggle with health-related subjects. Overcoming the issues associated with health literacy requires addressing the …

Recursive Marix Game Analysis: Optimal, Simplified, And Human Strategies In Brave Rats, William A. Medwid

Master's Theses

Brave Rats is a short game with simple rules, yet establishing a comprehensive strategy is very challenging without extensive computation. After explaining the rules, this paper begins by calculating the optimal strategy by recursively solving each turn’s Minimax strategy. It then provides summary statistics about the complex, branching Minimax solution. Next, we examine six other strategy models and evaluate their performance against each other. These models’ flaws highlight the key elements that contribute to the effectiveness of the Minimax strategy and offer insight into simpler strategies that human players could mimic. Finally, we analyze 123 games of human data collected …

Disentangling Cyclic Causality: An Instance-Based Framework For Causal Discovery, Chase A. Yakaboski

Dartmouth College Ph.D Dissertations

Correlation does not imply causation" is one of the fundamental principles taught in science, emphasizing that associations between variables do not necessarily indicate causality. Yet, over the past three decades, extensive research has begun to challenge this perspective by developing sophisticated methods to differentiate causal from correlative relationships. This research suggests that correlations often involve a blend of confounded and causal interactions, which, given certain assumptions, can be disentangled to uncover actionable insights and deepen our understanding of physical, biological, and societal systems.

Accurately discovering causal relationships from data amidst cyclic dynamics remains a challenging open problem in causality research. …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Static And Dynamic State Estimation Applications In Power Systems Protection And Control Engineering, Ibukunoluwa Olayemi Korede

Doctoral Dissertations

The developed methodologies are proposed to serve as support for control centers and fault analysis engineers. These approaches provide a dependable and effective means of pinpointing and resolving faults, which ultimately enhances power grid reliability. The algorithm uses the Least Absolute Value (LAV) method to estimate the augmented states of the PCB, enabling supervisory monitoring of the system. In addition, the application of statistical analysis based on projection statistics of the system Jacobian as a virtual sensor to detect faults on transmission lines. This approach is particularly valuable for detecting anomalies in transmission line data, such as bad data or …

Public Acceptance Of Medical Screening Recommendations, Safety Risks, And Implied Liabilities Requirements For Space Flight Participation, Cory J. Trunkhill

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The space tourism industry is preparing to send space flight participants on orbital and suborbital flights. Space flight participants are not professional astronauts and are not subject to the rules and guidelines covering space flight crewmembers. This research addresses public acceptance of current Federal Aviation Administration guidance and regulations as designated for civil participation in human space flight.

The research utilized an ordinal linear regression analysis of survey data to explore the public acceptance of the current medical screening recommended guidance and the regulations for safety risk and implied liability for space flight participation. Independent variables constituted participant demographic representations …

Maximum Likelihood Estimator Method To Estimate Flaw Parameters For Different Glass Types, Nabhajit Goswami

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Glass is commonly used in architectural applications, such as windows and in-fill panels and structural applications, such as beams and staircases. Despite the popularity of structural glass use in buildings, an engineering design standard to determine the required component or member strength for design loads does not exist. Glass is a brittle material that lacks a well-defined yield or ultimate stress, unlike ductile materials. The traditional engineering methods used to design a ductile material cannot be used to design a glass component. Glass fails in tension primarily due to the presence of microscopic flaws present on the surface that acts …

Application Of Randomness In Finance, Jose Sanchez, Daanial Ahmad, Satyanand Singh

Publications and Research

Brownian Motion which is also considered to be a Wiener process and can be thought of as a random walk. In our project we had briefly discussed the fluctuations of financial indices and related it to Brownian Motion and the modeling of Stock prices.

Applying The Data: Predictive Analytics In Sport, Anthony Teeter, Margo Bergman

Access*: Interdisciplinary Journal of Student Research and Scholarship

The history of wagering predictions and their impact on wide reaching disciplines such as statistics and economics dates to at least the 1700’s, if not before. Predicting the outcomes of sports is a multibillion-dollar business that capitalizes on these tools but is in constant development with the addition of big data analytics methods. Sportsline.com, a popular website for fantasy sports leagues, provides odds predictions in multiple sports, produces proprietary computer models of both winning and losing teams, and provides specific point estimates. To test likely candidates for inclusion in these prediction algorithms, the authors developed a computer model, and test …

Task Interrupted By A Poisson Process, Jarrett Christopher Nantais

Major Papers

We consider a task which has a completion time T (if not interrupted), which is a random variable with probability density function (pdf) f(t), t>0. Before it is complete, the task may be interrupted by a Poisson process with rate lambda. If that happens, then the task must begin again, with the same completion time random variable T, but with a potentially different realization. These interruptions can reoccur, until eventually the task is finished, with a total time of W. In this paper, we will find the Laplace Transform of W in several special cases.

Uniform Random Variate Generation With The Linear Congruential Method, Joseph Free

PANDION: The Osprey Journal of Research and Ideas

This report considers the issue of using a specific linear congruential generator (LCG) to create random variates from the uniform(0,1) distribution. The LCG is used to generate multiple samples of pseudo-random numbers and statistical computation techniques are used to assess whether those samples could have resulted from a uniform(0,1) distribution. Source code is included with this report in the appendix along with annotations.

Evaluating An Ordinal Output Using Data Modeling, Algorithmic Modeling, And Numerical Analysis, Martin Keagan Wynne Brown

Murray State Theses and Dissertations

Data and algorithmic modeling are two different approaches used in predictive analytics. The models discussed from these two approaches include the proportional odds logit model (POLR), the vector generalized linear model (VGLM), the classification and regression tree model (CART), and the random forests model (RF). Patterns in the data were analyzed using trigonometric polynomial approximations and Fast Fourier Transforms. Predictive modeling is used frequently in statistics and data science to find the relationship between the explanatory (input) variables and a response (output) variable. Both approaches prove advantageous in different cases depending on the data set. In our case, the data …

On The Sparre-Andersen Risk Models, Ruixi Zhang

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis develops several strategies for calculating ruin-related quantities for a variety of extended risk models. We focus on the Sparre-Andersen risk model, also known as the renewal risk model. The idea of arbitrary distribution for the waiting time between claim payments arose in the 1950’s from the collective risk theory, and received many extensions and modifications in recent years. Our goal is to tackle model assumptions that are either too relaxed for traditional methods to apply, or so complicated that elaborate algebraic tools are needed to obtain explicit solutions.

In Chapter 2, we consider a Lévy risk process and …

Some Recent Developments On Pareto-Optimal Reinsurance, Wenjun Jiang

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis focuses on developing Pareto-optimal reinsurance policy which considers the interests of both the insurer and the reinsurer. The optimal insurance/reinsurance design has been extensively studied in actuarial science literature, while in early years most studies were concentrated on optimizing the insurer’s interests. However, as early as 1960s, Borch argued that “an agreement which is quite attractive to one party may not be acceptable to its counterparty” and he pioneered the study on “fair” risk sharing between the insurer and the reinsurer. Quite recently, the question of how to strike a balance in risk sharing between an insurer and …

Unified Methods For Feature Selection In Large-Scale Genomic Studies With Censored Survival Outcomes, Lauren Spirko-Burns, Karthik Devarajan

COBRA Preprint Series

One of the major goals in large-scale genomic studies is to identify genes with a prognostic impact on time-to-event outcomes which provide insight into the disease's process. With rapid developments in high-throughput genomic technologies in the past two decades, the scientific community is able to monitor the expression levels of tens of thousands of genes and proteins resulting in enormous data sets where the number of genomic features is far greater than the number of subjects. Methods based on univariate Cox regression are often used to select genomic features related to survival outcome; however, the Cox model assumes proportional hazards …

The Dark Sky Character Of Archaeological Landscapes: Cultural Meaning And Conservation Strategies, Frank Prendergast

Book/Book Chapter

This paper presents the first ever study of light pollution at selected Irish prehistoric archaeological landscapes. The concepts of cosmology and landscape are first briefly described and followed by a summary of early human settlement of the island. Building on this, the extant corpus of early prehistoric megalithic burial tombs is illustrated to show their contrasting distribution patterns and typology. Analysis of tomb locations using nearest-neighbour statistical methods reveals evidence of intentional clustering. Further geo-statistical analysis identifies the geographical locations and the density ranking of these nucleated clusters - a feature especially evident in the passage tomb tradition on this …

Season-Ahead Forecasting Of Water Storage And Irrigation Requirements – An Application To The Southwest Monsoon In India, Arun Ravindranath, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, Paulina Concha Larrauri

Publications and Research

Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years …

Yelp’S Review Filtering Algorithm, Yao Yao, Ivelin Angelov, Jack Rasmus-Vorrath, Mooyoung Lee, Daniel W. Engels

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present an analysis of features influencing Yelp's proprietary review filtering algorithm. Classifying or misclassifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended affects average ratings, consumer decisions, and ultimately, business revenue. Our analysis involves systematically sampling and scraping Yelp restaurant reviews. Features are extracted from review metadata and engineered from metrics and scores generated using text classifiers and sentiment analysis. The coefficients of a multivariate logistic regression model were interpreted as quantifications of the relative importance of features in classifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended. The model classified review recommendations with an accuracy of 78%. We found that reviews …

Evaluation Of Using The Bootstrap Procedure To Estimate The Population Variance, Nghia Trong Nguyen

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The bootstrap procedure is widely used in nonparametric statistics to generate an empirical sampling distribution from a given sample data set for a statistic of interest. Generally, the results are good for location parameters such as population mean, median, and even for estimating a population correlation. However, the results for a population variance, which is a spread parameter, are not as good due to the resampling nature of the bootstrap method. Bootstrap samples are constructed using sampling with replacement; consequently, groups of observations with zero variance manifest in these samples. As a result, a bootstrap variance estimator will carry a …

Advances In Semi-Nonparametric Density Estimation And Shrinkage Regression, Hossein Zareamoghaddam

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis advocates the use of shrinkage and penalty techniques for estimating the parameters of a regression model that comprises both parametric and nonparametric components and develops semi-nonparametric density estimation methodologies that are applicable in a regression context.

First, a moment-based approach whereby a univariate or bivariate density function is approximated by means of a suitable initial density function that is adjusted by a linear combination of orthogonal polynomials is introduced. Such adjustments are shown to be mathematically equivalent to making use of standard polynomials in one or two variables. Once extended to apply to density estimation, in which case …

Some New And Generalized Distributions Via Exponentiation, Gamma And Marshall-Olkin Generators With Applications, Hameed Abiodun Jimoh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Three new generalized distributions developed via completing risk, gamma generator, Marshall-Olkin generator and exponentiation techniques are proposed and studied. Structural properties including quantile functions, hazard rate functions, moment, conditional moments, mean deviations, R\'enyi entropy, distribution of order statistics and maximum likelihood estimates are presented. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to examine the performance of the proposed distributions. Applications of the generalized distributions to real lifetime data are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the models.

Effect Of Neuromodulation Of Short-Term Plasticity On Information Processing In Hippocampal Interneuron Synapses, Elham Bayat Mokhtari

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Neurons convey information about the complex dynamic environment in the form of signals. Computational neuroscience provides a theoretical foundation toward enhancing our understanding of nervous system. The aim of this dissertation is to present techniques to study the brain and how it processes information in particular neurons in hippocampus.

We begin with a brief review of the history of neuroscience and biological background of basic neurons. To appreciate the importance of information theory, familiarity with the information theoretic basics is required, these basics are presented in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, we use information theory to estimate the amount of …

Making Models With Bayes, Pilar Olid

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Bayesian statistics is an important approach to modern statistical analyses. It allows us to use our prior knowledge of the unknown parameters to construct a model for our data set. The foundation of Bayesian analysis is Bayes' Rule, which in its proportional form indicates that the posterior is proportional to the prior times the likelihood. We will demonstrate how we can apply Bayesian statistical techniques to fit a linear regression model and a hierarchical linear regression model to a data set. We will show how to apply different distributions to Bayesian analyses and how the use of a prior affects …

Gilmore Girls And Instagram: A Statistical Look At The Popularity Of The Television Show Through The Lens Of An Instagram Page, Brittany Simmons

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

After going on the Warner Brothers Tour in December of 2015, I created a Gilmore Girls Instagram account. This account, which started off as a way for me to create edits of the show and post my photos from the tour turned into something bigger than I ever could have imagined. In just over a year I have over 55,000 followers. I post content including revival news, merchandise, and edits of the show that have been featured in Entertainment Weekly, Bustle, E! News, People Magazine, Yahoo News, & GilmoreNews.

I created a dataset of qualitative and quantitative outcomes from my …

A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …

A New Right Tailed Test Of The Ratio Of Variances, Elizabeth Rochelle Lesser

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

It is important to be able to compare variances efficiently and accurately regardless of the parent populations. This study proposes a new right tailed test for the ratio of two variances using the Edgeworth’s expansion. To study the Type I error rate and Power performance, simulation was performed on the new test with various combinations of symmetric and skewed distributions. It is found to have more controlled Type I error rates than the existing tests. Additionally, it also has sufficient power. Therefore, the newly derived test provides a good robust alternative to the already existing methods.

Pcr5 And Neutrosophic Probability In Target Identification, Florentin Smarandache, Nassim Abbas, Youcef Chibani, Bilal Hadjadji, Zayen Azzouz Omar

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this paper we use PCR5 in order to fusion the information of two sources providing subjective probabilities of an event A to occur in the following form: chance that A occurs, indeterminate chance of occurrence of A, chance that A does not occur.

The Relationship Between Self-Determination And Client Outcomes Among The Homeless, Samuel M. Hanna

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

This paper has attempted to determine if there is a significant relationship between self-determination and client outcomes among the homeless. The study has been based upon the conceptual framework set forth in Self-Determination Theory. The purpose of the study was to explore the relationship between self-determination and client outcomes among the homeless. Using a data collection instrument, based on empirically validated instrumentation, clients from several homeless service providers in the City of San Bernardino were assessed for the level of self-determination and autonomy support they experience within these agencies. Outcome measures included such things as whether the client was going …

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

Meta-Analysis Of Social-Personality Psychological Research, Blair T. Johnson, Alice H. Eagly

CHIP Documents

This publication provides a contemporary treatment of the subject of meta-analysis in relation to social-personality psychology. Meta-analysis literally refers to the statistical pooling of the results of independent studies on a given subject, although in practice it refers as well to other steps of research synthesis, including defining the question under investigation, gathering all available research reports, coding of information about the studies and their effects, and interpretation/dissemination of results. Discussed as well are the hallmarks of high-quality meta-analyses.