Multivariate Analysis Commons^™

Next-Generation Democratic Cyber Statecraft - Balancing The Signal: Shutdown Shocks And Democratic Digital Governance, Scott M. Di Panni

School of Public Policy Capstones

This paper develops Next-Generation Democratic Cyber Statecraft (NG-DCS), a unified strategic doctrine for democratic governments to contest the cognitive domain against authoritarian adversaries. Drawing on twenty-six years of cross-national panel data (1999–2024) spanning 213 countries, game-theoretic modeling, and qualitative case analysis, the paper establishes three interconnected empirical and theoretical foundations. First, cross-national OLS regression across 160+ countries demonstrates that regime type is the dominant structural determinant of internet freedom (R²=0.615, β=2.513, p< 0.001), explaining more than twice the variance attributable to per-capita wealth (R²=0.268). Democratic governance, not economic development, produces open digital environments. Second, a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) difference-in-differences study exploiting government-ordered internet shutdowns as discrete policy interventions finds that digital restrictions causally degrade V-Dem governance quality by 0.21–0.38 standard deviations (p< 0.001 across all specifications). Treatment effects are immediate (β=−0.302 at k=0) and persist through five post-treatment years (β=−0.246 at k=+5), indicating structural rather than transitory governance damage. Parallel trends validation (p=0.352) and Callaway–Sant’Anna heterogeneity-robust estimation (ATT=−0.230, SE=0.077) support causal identification. Instrumental variable triangulation (2SLS β=−0.949, p=0.005) confirms that simultaneity was attenuating, not inflating, the primary estimates. Third, formal game-theoretic analysis reveals that the current U.S.–adversary equilibrium is (Restrain, Escalate)—the risk-dominant but Pareto-inferior outcome of a Stag Hunt structure. China, Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela each occupy structurally distinct positions (Stackelberg commitment, asymmetric two-level, autarky, and reactive trigger, respectively), requiring differentiated doctrinal responses rather than a uniform strategic playbook. Generative AI and algorithmic governance are shown to accelerate cognitive vulnerability by collapsing influence operation costs and exploiting engagement-optimized platform architectures that systematically degrade deliberative capacity in democratic populations.

Coupled Machine Learning Models: Combining Observations And Numerical Analysis In A Physics-Regularized Approach, Austin B. Schmidt

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates surrogate modeling for fixed-location environmental forecasting using novel data-combination techniques. The work surveys the landscape of observational measurements and numerically generated data, identifying similar research and gaps in current methodologies. The ratio-coupled training framework is introduced to combine two data sources per predicted feature through a tunable parameter that weights training signal strength. An optimization scheme is developed to simultaneously tune surrogate weights and the coupled signal ratio, allowing relative influence between signals to act as an explicit regularizer. Three case studies demonstrate the methodology and approach in a variety of contexts. The first study is based …

Spatially Mapped Statewide Estimated Potential Evapotranspiration Using An Efficient Surface Interpolation Method: A Case Study Of South Carolina, Sudhanshu S. Panda, Devendra M. Amatya, Ka Kit Liu, Augustine Muwamba, Timothy J. Callahan

Journal of South Carolina Water Resources

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) exhibits substantial spatial and temporal variability across large landscapes, necessitating site-specific estimation for accurate environmental and water resource assessments. However, obtaining PET or ET data for specific locations across an entire state remains challenging due to the limited number of weather stations and associated environmental datasets. This study aimed to develop an automated geospatial modeling framework to map PET distribution across South Carolina, USA, using PET estimated by the temperature-based Hargreaves–Samani (H–S) method with daily weather data from 59 NOAA stations. Because the accuracy of spatial interpolation depends on both the target variable and the desired spatial …

Syntax-Enhanced Boundary-Aware Named Entity Recognition Model, Chuanming Yu, Bin Deng, Zhengang Zhang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] This study addresses the issue of inadequate perception of entity boundaries in traditional character-level modeling-based named entity recognition models by integrating syntax information containing entity boundary features into the task using a multi-head graph attention network with dense connections. This integration enhances the effectiveness of named entity recognition.

[Method/process] This study proposes a Syntax-enhanced Boundary-aware Named Entity Recognition Model (SynBNER), which utilizes BERT for text semantic representation and integrates syntax information using a dense-connected graph attention network. This integration incorporates implicit entity boundary information from syntax information into word representations, thereby enhancing the model's entity boundary perception capability.

[Result/conclusion] …

A Text Mining And Sentiment Analysis Of Valuable Cie Texts Using R, Eric Sugarman, Ethan Turber-Ortiz, Hannah Quinn

Mathematics, Computer Science & Statistics Presentations

The purpose of this project was to perform a sentiment analysis of three texts used in Ursinus College's Common Intellectual Experience (CIE) course: Between the World and Me by Ta-Nehisi Coates, The New Jim Crow by Michelle Alexander and Discourse on Method by Rene Descartes. Word count and word cloud analysis were also performed on the texts as well as term frequency and bigram analysis.

A Machine-Learning Tool-Supported Methodology For Nonprofit Donor Analysis, Corbin Weiss

Campus Research Month

We developed a machine-learning tool-supported methodology for modeling the nonprofit donor relationship. This approach was demonstrated in the case of a US-based nonprofit. Conclusions were drawn from this example and tool-support provided for use by other nonprofits.

Extraction Of Fine-Grained Research Methods In The Field Of Information Science, Jiayi Hao, Yuzhuo Wang, Chengzhi Zhang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance]Research methods in information science are one of the critical research directions in this field. Constructing a fine-grained research method corpus and extracting research method entities can help scholars quickly understand the research methods in this field, explore the evolution of methods and their future development trends, and lay the foundation for the service and application of the research method corpus in the subsequent digital wave. [Method/process]Firstly, based on academic articles published in the Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information from 2000 to 2023, this study randomly selected 50 articles and manually annotated the research methodology …

Calculation And Statistical Analysis Of Wins Above Replacement, Joshua Taylor

Departmental Honors & Graduate Capstone Projects

The Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistic in Major League Baseball is a prominent metric used to estimate player value by quantifying all aspects of play in terms of wins added to a baseball team. We will use R to calculate WAR for all players from 1871 to 2012 and use data from those years to construct multivariate predictive models to attempt to estimate WAR for players from 2013 to 2024. We find strong correlations between predicted and actual WAR values for most models, with the exception of the polynomial predictive model for non-qualified pitchers.

Gradient Wild Bootstrap For Instrumental Variable Quantile Regressions With Weak And Few Clusters, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the gradient wild bootstrap-based inference for instrumental variable quantile regressions in the framework of a small number of large clusters in which the number of clusters is viewed as fixed, and the number of observations for each cluster diverges to infinity. For the Wald inference, we show that our wild bootstrap Wald test, with or without studentization using the cluster-robust covariance estimator (CRVE), controls size asymptotically up to a small error as long as the parameter of endogenous variable is strongly identified in at least one of the clusters. We further show that the wild bootstrap Wald test …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Understanding Social Dynamics In Toxic Conversations And Public Health Intervention Acceptance On Social Media, Ana Aleksandric

Computer Science and Engineering Dissertations - Archive

Social media is now central to daily life, offering users a space to share content and opinions. However, these platforms also facilitate the spread of hate speech and misinformation, which can negatively impact public health. This dissertation develops methodologies to analyze social media data for insights that could inform health interventions. The research first examines user responses to toxic content, focusing on behavioral and emotional reactions, as well as group dynamics and bystander effects in toxic interactions. Another key focus is public opinion toward health interventions, particularly COVID-19 vaccination, using geolocated posts and analyzing factors such as race, ethnicity, and …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to a contemporaneous increase in inflation, while the direct response of inflation to external debt is statistically not significant. The impulse response confirms these results. The forecast error variance decomposition depicts that future values of official exchange rate depend on external debt, inflation and external debt service. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should …

A Data-Driven Multi-Regime Approach For Predicting Real-Time Energy Consumption Of Industrial Machines., Abdulgani Kahraman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis focuses on methods for improving energy consumption prediction performance in complex industrial machines. Working with real-world industrial machines brings several challenges, including data access, algorithmic bias, data privacy, and the interpretation of machine learning algorithms. To effectively manage energy consumption in the industrial sector, it is essential to develop a framework that enhances prediction performance, reduces energy costs, and mitigates air pollution in heavy industrial machine operations. This study aims to assist managers in making informed decisions and driving the transition towards green manufacturing. The energy consumption of industrial machinery is substantial, and the recent increase in CO2 …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Fraud Pattern Detection For Nft Markets, Andrew Leppla, Jorge Olmos, Jaideep Lamba

SMU Data Science Review

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) enable ownership and transfer of digital assets using blockchain technology. As a relatively new financial asset class, NFTs lack robust oversight and regulations. These conditions create an environment that is susceptible to fraudulent activity and market manipulation schemes. This study examines the buyer-seller network transactional data from some of the most popular NFT marketplaces (e.g., AtomicHub, OpenSea) to identify and predict fraudulent activity. To accomplish this goal multiple features such as price, volume, and network metrics were extracted from NFT transactional data. These were fed into a Multiple-Scale Convolutional Neural Network that predicts suspected fraudulent activity based …

Disciplines Different Of Fine-Grained Acknowledged Entity：A Case Of Doctoral Dissertations In Chinese Humanities And Social Sciences, Jiaxin He, Shijin Zhang, Jiayu Zheng, Xinlong Chu, Chengzhi Zhang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance]Thesis acknowledgment is a public text in which the authors express their gratitude to individuals and institutions those support their research. It is helpful to understand the individuals and institutions that play a role in the cultivation of doctoral candidate in different disciplines by extracting the entities of acknowledgment and comparing the distribution of the objects of acknowledgment in the dissertations of different disciplines.[Method/process]In this paper, we gained more than 60 000 Chinese doctoral dissertations acknowledgment of 21 humanities and social sciences disciplines, extracted acknowledged entities from acknowledgment, and constructed a fine-grained classification system of acknowledgment entities. The classification system …

Examining The Relationship Between Stomiiform Fish Morphology And Their Ecological Traits, Mikayla L. Twiss

All HCAS Student Capstones, Theses, and Dissertations

Trait-based ecology characterizes individuals’ functional attributes to better understand and predict their interactions with other species and their environments. Utilizing morphological traits to describe functional groups has helped group species with similar ecological niches that are not necessarily taxonomically related. Within the deep-pelagic fishes, the Order Stomiiformes exhibits high morphological and species diversity, and many species undertake diel vertical migration (DVM). While the morphology and behavior of stomiiform fishes have been extensively studied and described through taxonomic assessments, the connection between their form and function regarding their DVM types, morphotypes, and daytime depth distributions is not well known. Here, three …

Analytic Case Study Using Unsupervised Event Detection In Multivariate Time Series Data, Jeremy M. Wightman

Theses and Dissertations

Analysis of cyber-physical systems (CPS) has emerged as a critical domain for providing US Air Force and Space Force leadership decision advantage in air, space, and cyberspace. Legacy methods have been outpaced by evolving battlespaces and global peer-level challengers. Automation provides one way to decrease the time that analysis currently takes. This thesis presents an event detection automation system (EDAS) which utilizes deep learning models, distance metrics, and static thresholding to detect events. The EDAS automation is evaluated with case study of CPS domain experts in two parts. Part 1 uses the current methods for CPS analysis with a qualitative …

The Short-Term Effects Of Fine Airborne Particulate Matter And Climate On Covid-19 Disease Dynamics, El Hussain Shamsa, Kezhong Zhang

Medical Student Research Symposium

Background: Despite more than 60% of the United States population being fully vaccinated, COVID-19 cases continue to spike in a temporal pattern. These patterns in COVID-19 incidence and mortality may be linked to short-term changes in environmental factors.

Methods: Nationwide, county-wise measurements for COVID-19 cases and deaths, fine-airborne particulate matter (PM_2.5), and maximum temperature were obtained from March 20, 2020 to March 20, 2021. Multivariate Linear Regression was used to analyze the association between environmental factors and COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates in each season. Negative Binomial Regression was used to analyze daily fluctuations of COVID-19 cases …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …

Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting Using Cloud Dynamics Features Extracted From Ground-Based Infrared Sky Images, Guillermo Terrén-Serrano

Electrical and Computer Engineering ETDs

Due to the increasing use of photovoltaic systems, power grids are vulnerable to the projection of shadows from moving clouds. An intra-hour solar forecast provides power grids with the capability of automatically controlling the dispatch of energy, reducing the additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This dissertation introduces a novel sky imager consisting of a long-wave radiometric infrared camera and a visible light camera with a fisheye lens. The imager is mounted on a solar tracker to maintain the Sun in the center of the images throughout the day, reducing the scattering effect produced …

On The Use Of Minimum Penalties In Statistical Learning, Ben Sherwood, Bradley S. Price

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Modern multivariate machine learning and statistical methodologies estimate parameters of interest while leveraging prior knowledge of the association between outcome variables. The methods that do allow for estimation of relationships do so typically through an error covariance matrix in multivariate regression which does not scale to other types of models. In this article we proposed the MinPEN framework to simultaneously estimate regression coefficients associated with the multivariate regression model and the relationships between outcome variables using mild assumptions. The MinPen framework utilizes a novel penalty based on the minimum function to exploit detected relationships between responses. An iterative algorithm that …

Modeling And Solving The Outsourcing Risk Management Problem In Multi-Echelon Supply Chains, Arian A. Nahangi

Master's Theses

Worldwide globalization has made supply chains more vulnerable to risk factors, increasing the associated costs of outsourcing goods. Outsourcing is highly beneficial for any company that values building upon its core competencies, but the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have exposed significant vulnerabilities within supply chains. These disruptions forced a shift in the production of goods from outsourcing to domestic methods.

This paper considers a multi-echelon supply chain model with global and domestic raw material suppliers, manufacturing plants, warehouses, and markets. All levels within the supply chain network are evaluated from a holistic perspective, calculating a total …

Stock Markets Performance During A Pandemic: How Contagious Is Covid-19?, Yara Abushahba

Theses and Dissertations

Background and Motivation: The coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the subsequent policies and lockdowns have unarguably led to an unprecedented fluid circumstance worldwide. The panic and fluctuations in the stock markets were unparalleled. It is inarguable that real-time availability of news and social media platforms like Twitter played a vital role in driving the investors’ sentiment during such global shock.

Purpose:The purpose of this thesis is to study how the investor sentiment in relation to COVID-19 pandemic influenced stock markets globally and how stock markets globally are integrated and contagious. We analyze COVID-19 sentiment through the Twitter posts and investigate its …

Maternal Proximity To Mountaintop Removal Mining And Birth Defects In Appalachian Kentucky, 1997-2003, Daniel B. Cooper

Theses and Dissertations--Public Health (M.P.H. & Dr.P.H.)

Background: Extraction of coal through mountaintop removal mining (MTR) alters many dimensions of the landscape, and explosive blasts, exposed rock, and coal washing have the potential to pollute air and water with substances known to increase risk of developmental and birth anomalies. Previous research suggests that infants born to mothers living in MTR coal mining counties have higher prevalence of most types of birth defects.

Objectives: This study seeks to examine further the relationship between MTR activity and birth defects by employing individual level exposure estimation through precise satellite data of MTR activity in the Appalachian region and maternal residence …

Novel Inference Methods For Generalized Linear Models Using Shrinkage Priors And Data Augmentation., Arinjita Bhattacharyya

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Generalized linear models have broad applications in biostatistics and sociology. In a regression setup, the main target is to find a relevant set of predictors out of a large collection of covariates. Sparsity is the assumption that only a few of these covariates in a regression setup have a meaningful correlation with an outcome variate of interest. Sparsity is incorporated by regularizing the irrelevant slopes towards zero without changing the relevant predictors and keeping the resulting inferences intact. Frequentist variable selection and sparsity are addressed by popular techniques like Lasso, Elastic Net. Bayesian penalized regression can tackle the curse of …