Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series Commons^™

Seasonal Time Series Models With Application To Weather And Lake Level Data, Mengqing Qin

MSU Graduate Theses

This work studies seasonal time series models with application to lake level and weather data. The thesis includes related time series concepts, integrated autoregressive moving average models (abbreviated as ARIMA), parameter estimation, model diagnostics, and forecasting. The studied time series models are applied to the data of daily lake level in Beaver Lake (1988-2017) and the data of daily maximum temperature in New York Central Park (1870-2017). Due to seasonality of the data, three different approaches are proposed to the modeling: regression method, functional ARIMA method and multiplicative seasonal ARIMA method. The forecasted values of the year 2018 are compared …