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Full-Text Articles in Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series

Modeling Criminal Careers As Departures From A Unimodal Population Age-Crime Curve: The Case Of Marijuana Use, Donatello Telesca, Elena Erosheva, Derek Kreager, Ross Matsueda Dec 2011

Modeling Criminal Careers As Departures From A Unimodal Population Age-Crime Curve: The Case Of Marijuana Use, Donatello Telesca, Elena Erosheva, Derek Kreager, Ross Matsueda

COBRA Preprint Series

A major aim of longitudinal analyses of life course data is to describe the within- and between-individual variability in a behavioral outcome, such as crime. Statistical analyses of such data typically draw on mixture and mixed-effects growth models. In this work, we present a functional analytic point of view and develop an alternative method that models individual crime trajectories as departures from a population age-crime curve. Drawing on empirical and theoretical claims in criminology, we assume a unimodal population age-crime curve and allow individual expected crime trajectories to differ by their levels of offending and patterns of temporal misalignment. We …


Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation For Dynamic Treatment Regimes In Sequential Randomized Controlled Trials, Paul Chaffee, Mark J. Van Der Laan Mar 2011

Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation For Dynamic Treatment Regimes In Sequential Randomized Controlled Trials, Paul Chaffee, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Sequential Randomized Controlled Trials (SRCTs) are rapidly becoming essential tools in the search for optimized treatment regimes in ongoing treatment settings. Analyzing data for multiple time-point treatments with a view toward optimal treatment regimes is of interest in many types of afflictions: HIV infection, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in children, leukemia, prostate cancer, renal failure, and many others. Methods for analyzing data from SRCTs exist but they are either inefficient or suffer from the drawbacks of estimating equation methodology. We describe an estimation procedure, targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), which has been fully developed and implemented in point treatment settings, …