Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series Commons^™

Geographic And Temporal Epidemiology Of Campylobacteriosis, Jennifer Weisent

Doctoral Dissertations

Campylobacteriosis is a leading cause of gastroenteritis in the United States. The focus of this research was to (i) analyze and predict spatial and temporal patterns and associations for campylobacteriosis risk and (ii) compare the utility of advanced modeling methods. Laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter case data, obtained from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network were used in all investigations.

We compared the accuracy of forecasting techniques for campylobacteriosis risk in Minnesota, Oregon and Georgia and found that time series regression, decomposition, and Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages reliably predict monthly risk of infection for campylobacteriosis. Decomposition provided the fastest, most accurate, user-friendly …

Interactions Between Serotypes Of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact Of Cross-Immunity, Nicholas Reich, Sourya Shrestha, Aaron King, Pejman Rohani, Justin Lessler, Siripen Kalayanarooj, In-Kyu Yoon, Robert Gibbons, Donald Burke, Derek Cummings

Nicholas G Reich

Dengue, a mosquito-borne virus of humans, infects over 50 million people annually. Infection with any of the four dengue serotypes induces protective immunity to that serotype, but does not confer long-term protection against infection by other serotypes. The immunological interactions between sero- types are of central importance in understanding epidemiological dynamics and anticipating the impact of dengue vaccines. We analysed a 38-year time series with 12 197 serotyped dengue infections from a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Using novel mechanistic models to represent different hypothesized immune interactions between serotypes, we found strong evidence that infec- tion with dengue provides substantial short-term …