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Full-Text Articles in Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series
Case Studies In Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using The Relative Mean Absolute Error, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Stephen A. Lauer, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Derek A T Cummings
Case Studies In Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using The Relative Mean Absolute Error, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Stephen A. Lauer, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Derek A T Cummings
Nicholas G Reich
Statistical prediction models inform decision-making processes in many real-world settings. Prior to using predictions in practice, one must rigorously test and validate candidate models to ensure that the proposed predictions have sufficient accuracy to be used in practice. In this paper, we present a framework for evaluating time series predictions that emphasizes computational simplicity and an intuitive interpretation using the relative mean absolute error metric. For a single time series, this metric enables comparisons of candidate model predictions against naive reference models, a method that can provide useful and standardized performance benchmarks. Additionally, in applications with multiple time series, this …
Interactions Between Serotypes Of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact Of Cross-Immunity, Nicholas Reich, Sourya Shrestha, Aaron King, Pejman Rohani, Justin Lessler, Siripen Kalayanarooj, In-Kyu Yoon, Robert Gibbons, Donald Burke, Derek Cummings
Interactions Between Serotypes Of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact Of Cross-Immunity, Nicholas Reich, Sourya Shrestha, Aaron King, Pejman Rohani, Justin Lessler, Siripen Kalayanarooj, In-Kyu Yoon, Robert Gibbons, Donald Burke, Derek Cummings
Nicholas G Reich
Dengue, a mosquito-borne virus of humans, infects over 50 million people annually. Infection with any of the four dengue serotypes induces protective immunity to that serotype, but does not confer long-term protection against infection by other serotypes. The immunological interactions between sero- types are of central importance in understanding epidemiological dynamics and anticipating the impact of dengue vaccines. We analysed a 38-year time series with 12 197 serotyped dengue infections from a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Using novel mechanistic models to represent different hypothesized immune interactions between serotypes, we found strong evidence that infec- tion with dengue provides substantial short-term …
Social Networks Enabled Coordination Model For Cost Management Of Patient Hospital Admissions, Shahadat Uddin, Liaquat Hossain
Social Networks Enabled Coordination Model For Cost Management Of Patient Hospital Admissions, Shahadat Uddin, Liaquat Hossain
Shahadat Uddin
In this study, we introduce a social networks enabled coordination model for exploring the effect of network position of “patient,” “physician,” and “hospital” actors in a patient-centered care network that evolves during patient hospitalization period on the total cost of coordination. An actor is a node, which represents an entity such as individual and organization in a social network. In our analysis of actor networks and coordination in the healthcare literature, we identified that there is significant gap where a number of promising hospital coordination model have been developed (e.g., Guided Care Model, Chronic Care Model) for the current healthcare …
Static Versus Dynamic Topology Of Complex Communications Network During Organizational Crisis, Shahadat Uddin
Static Versus Dynamic Topology Of Complex Communications Network During Organizational Crisis, Shahadat Uddin
Shahadat Uddin
No abstract provided.
Power-Law Behavior In Complex Organizational Communication Networks During Crisis, Shahadat Uddin
Power-Law Behavior In Complex Organizational Communication Networks During Crisis, Shahadat Uddin
Shahadat Uddin
No abstract provided.