Clinical Trials Commons^™

Efficacy Analysis In Clinical Trials: A Comprehensive Review Of Statistical And Machine Learning Approaches, Dhrubajyoti Ghosh, Samhita Pal

Faculty Articles

Efficacy testing is a cornerstone of clinical trials, ensuring that medical interventions achieve their intended therapeutic effects. Over the decades, a wide range of statistical methodologies have been developed to address the complexities of clinical trial data, including parametric, nonparametric, Bayesian, and machine learning approaches. Parametric methods, such as t-tests, ANOVA, and LMMs, have traditionally been the foundation of efficacy testing due to their efficiency under well-defined assumptions. Nonparametric techniques, including the Friedman test, Brunner-Munzel test, and modern extensions like nparLD, have emerged as robust alternatives, particularly for skewed, ordinal, or non-normal data. Bayesian methodologies have enabled the incorporation of …

Two-Stage Response-Adaptive Randomization Designs For Multi-Arm Trials With Normal Outcome, Tanjin Tamanna Happy

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study focuses on improving how clinical trials compare new treatments with a standard treatment, when the response is quantitative (normally distributed). In a common two-stage design, several new treatments are first evaluated, and the best-performing one is selected if it appears better than the standard. In the second stage, this selected treatment is compared again with the standard using additional data to confirm its effectiveness. This approach is known to be efficient in terms of accuracy and sample size savings. We extend this design by introducing an adaptive method for assigning patients to treatments in the second stage. Instead …

Emerging Clinical Role Of Tavapadon, A Novel Dopamine Partial Agonist, In The Treatment Of Parkinson’S Disease, Alan D. Kaye, Bennett M. Ford, Brennan M. Abbott, Kalob M. Broocks, Sofia Novacic, Sahar Shekoohi

School of Medicine Faculty Publications

Tavapadon, a novel oral dopamine-D1R/D5R partial agonist, has been studied in recent years for the treatment of late-stage development Parkinson’s disease (PD). Levodopa, a dopamine precursor that currently remains the gold-standard first-line therapy for PD motor symptoms, serves as a benchmark against emerging dopaminergic agents. By selectively activating D1-family receptors on direct-pathway medium neurons, Tavapadon differs in that it delivers levodopa-level motor benefit while avoiding its many D2R/D3R-mediated adverse effects. In placebo-controlled trials, Tavapadon produced clear, clinically meaningful gains in motor function and day-to-day activities, as captured by the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Recent late-stage results have revealed …

Strengthening The Paediatric Clinical Trial Ecosystem To Better Inform Policy And Programmes, James A. Berkley, Judd L. Walson, Glenda Gray, Fiona Russell, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta, Per Ashorn, Shane A. Norris, Ebunoluwa A. Adejuyigbe, Rebecca Grais, Bernhards Ogutu

Institute for Global Health and Development

The first WHO Global Clinical Trials Forum was convened in November, 2023 to develop a shared vision of an effective global clinical trial infrastructure. The Paediatric Clinical Trials Working Group was formed to provide perspectives, identify challenges, and propose solutions to strengthen the paediatric clinical trials ecosystem. Participants represented paediatric disciplines, including infectious diseases, nutrition, neonatology, pharmacology, oncology, neurodevelopment, public health, and policy. Childhood diseases have profound lifelong effects on health, livelihoods, and societies. Investment in early childhood results in highly cost-effective changes to lifelong health, productivity, and human capital returns. Yet, there remain substantial gaps in knowledge on the …

Repurposing The Fda-Approved Anthelmintic Pyrvinium Pamoate For Pancreatic Cancer Treatment: Study Protocol For A Phase I Clinical Trial In Early-Stage Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma, Francesca M. Ponzini, Christopher W. Schultz, Benjamin E. Leiby, Shawnna Cannaday, T. Yeo, James Posey, Wilbur B. Bowne, Charles Yeo, Jonathan R. Brody, Harish Lavu, Avinoam Nevler

Department of Surgery Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND: Recent reports of the utilisation of pyrvinium pamoate (PP), an FDA-approved anti-helminth, have shown that it inhibits pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cell growth and proliferation in-vitro and in-vivo in preclinical models. Here, we report about an ongoing phase I open-label, single-arm, dose escalation clinical trial to determine the safety and tolerability of PP in PDAC surgical candidates.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In a 3+3 dose design, PP is initiated 3 days prior to surgery. The first three patients will be treated with the initial dose of PP at 5 mg/kg orally for 3 days prior to surgery. Dose doubling will …

Sickle Cell Disease Treatment With Arginine Therapy (Start): Study Protocol For A Phase 3 Randomized Controlled Trial., Chris A Rees, David C. Brousseau, Daniel M Cohen, Anthony Villella, Carlton Dampier, Kathleen Brown, Andrew Campbell, Corrie E Chumpitazi, Gladstone Airewele, Todd Chang, Christopher Denton, Angela Ellison, Alexis Thompson, Fahd Ahmad, Nitya Bakshi, Keli D Coleman, Sara Leibovich, Deborah Leake, Dunia Hatabah, Hagar Wilkinson, Michelle Robinson, T Charles Casper, Elliott Vichinsky, Claudia R Morris

Department of Pediatrics Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial illness burden and healthcare utilization conferred by pain from vaso-occlusive episodes (VOE) in children with sickle cell disease (SCD), disease-modifying therapies to effectively treat SCD-VOE are lacking. The aim of the Sickle Cell Disease Treatment with Arginine Therapy (STArT) Trial is to provide definitive evidence regarding the efficacy of intravenous arginine as a treatment for acute SCD-VOE among children, adolescents, and young adults.

METHODS: STArT is a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, phase 3, multicenter trial of intravenous arginine therapy in 360 children, adolescents, and young adults who present with SCD-VOE. The STArT Trial is being conducted at 10 …

Do Firms Respond To Peer Disclosures? Evidence From Disclosures Of Clinical Trial Results, Vedran Capkun, Yun Lou, Clemens A. Otto, Yin Wang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Using data on the registration of clinical trials and the disclosure of trial results, we examine how firms respond to peer disclosures. We find that firms are less likely to disclose their own trial results if the results of a larger number of closely related trials are disclosed by their peers. This relation is stronger if the firms face higher competition (as measured by the number of competing trials). It is weaker if the firms are further along in their research than the peers (as measured by the trials’ phase) and if the peers’ disclosures convey more negative news (as …

Systematic Review Of Polyherbal Combinations Used In Metabolic Syndrome, Amber Hanif Palla, Faridah Amin, Bilqees Fatima, Arooj Shafiq, Najeeb Ur Rehman, Ikram Ul Haq, Anwar-Ul-Hassan Gilani

Department of Biological & Biomedical Sciences

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a multifactorial disease, whose main stay of prevention and management is life-style modification which is difficult to attain. Combination of herbs have proven more efficacious in multi-targeted diseases, as compared to individual herbs owing to the "effect enhancing and side-effect neutralizing" properties of herbs, which forms the basis of polyherbal therapies This led us to review literature on the efficacy of herbal combinations in MetS.
Methods: Electronic search of literature was conducted by using Cinnahl, Pubmed central, Cochrane and Web of Science, whereas, Google scholar was used as secondary search tool. The key words used …

Randomised Trials At The Level Of The Individual, Jay J H. Park, Nathan Ford, Denis Xavier, Per Ashorn, Rebecca F. Grais, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta, Herman Goossens, Kristian Thorlund, Maria Eugenia Socias, Edward J. Mills

Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health

In global health research, short-term, small-scale clinical trials with fixed, two-arm trial designs that generally do not allow for major changes throughout the trial are the most common study design. Building on the introductory paper of this Series, this paper discusses data-driven approaches to clinical trial research across several adaptive trial designs, as well as the master protocol framework that can help to harmonise clinical trial research efforts in global health research. We provide a general framework for more efficient trial research, and we discuss the importance of considering different study designs in the planning stage with statistical simulations. We …

Novel Inference Methods For Generalized Linear Models Using Shrinkage Priors And Data Augmentation., Arinjita Bhattacharyya

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Generalized linear models have broad applications in biostatistics and sociology. In a regression setup, the main target is to find a relevant set of predictors out of a large collection of covariates. Sparsity is the assumption that only a few of these covariates in a regression setup have a meaningful correlation with an outcome variate of interest. Sparsity is incorporated by regularizing the irrelevant slopes towards zero without changing the relevant predictors and keeping the resulting inferences intact. Frequentist variable selection and sparsity are addressed by popular techniques like Lasso, Elastic Net. Bayesian penalized regression can tackle the curse of …

A Programme For Risk Assessment And Minimisation Of Progressive Multifocal Leukoencephalopathy Developed For Vedolizumab Clinical Trials, Asit Parikh, Kristin Stephens, Eugene Major, Irving Fox, Catherine Milch, Serap Sankoh, Michael H. Lev, James M. Provenzale, Jesse Shick, Mark Patti, Megan Mcauliffe, Joseph R. Berger, David B. Clifford

Neurology Faculty Publications

Introduction Over the past decade, the potential for drug-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) has become an increasingly important consideration in certain drug development programmes, particularly those of immunomodulatory biologics. Whether the risk of PML with an investigational agent is proven (e.g. extrapolated from relevant experience, such as a class effect) or merely theoretical, the serious consequences of acquiring PML require careful risk minimisation and assessment. No single standard for such risk minimisation exists. Vedolizumab is a recently developed monoclonal antibody to α4β7 integrin. Its clinical development necessitated a dedicated PML risk minimisation assessment as part of a global preapproval regulatory …

Motivators For Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Trial Participation, Shoshana H. Bardach, Sarah D. Holmes, Gregory A. Jicha

Graduate Center for Gerontology Faculty Publications

Background

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) research progress is impeded due to participant recruitment challenges. This study seeks to better understand, from the perspective of individuals engaged in clinical trials (CTs), research motivations.

Methods

Participants, or their caregivers, from AD treatment and prevention CTs were surveyed about research motivators.

Results

The 87 respondents had a mean age of 72.2, were predominantly Caucasian, 55.2% were male, and 56.3% had cognitive impairment. An overwhelming majority rated the potential to help themselves or a loved one and the potential to help others in the future as important motivators. Relatively few respondents were motivated by free …

The Role Of Functional, Social, And Mobility Dynamics In Facilitating Older African Americans Participation In Clinical Research, Eve T. Shapiro, Jay T. Schamel, Kimberly A. Parker, Laura A. Randall, Paula M. Frew

Environmental & Global Health Faculty Research

Purpose: Older African Americans experience disproportionately higher incidence of morbidity and mortality related to chronic and infectious diseases, yet are significantly underrepresented in clinical research compared to other racial and ethnic groups. This study aimed to understand the extent to which social support, transportation access, and physical impediments function as barriers or facilitators to clinical trial recruitment of older African Americans. Methods: Participants (N=221) were recruited from six African American churches in Atlanta and surveyed on various influences on clinical trial participation.

Adaptive Non-Inferiority Margins Under Observable Non-Constancy, Brett S. Hanscom, Deborah J. Donnell, Brian D. Williamson, Jim Hughes

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

A central assumption in the design and conduct of non-inferiority trials is that the active-control therapy will have the same degree of effectiveness in the planned non-inferiority trial as it had in the prior placebo-controlled trials used to define the non-inferiority margin. This is referred to as the `constancy' assumption. If the constancy assumption fails, the chosen non-inferiority margin is not valid and the study runs the risk of approving an inferior product or failing to approve a beneficial product. The constancy assumption cannot be validated in a trial without a placebo arm, and it is unlikely ever to be …

A Study Of Joinpoint Models For Longitudinal Data, Libo Zhou

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

In many medical studies, data are collected simultaneously on multiple biomarkers from each individual. Levels of these biomarkers are measured periodically over certain time duration, giving rise to longitudinal trajectories. The subjects under study may also be subject to dropout due to several competing causes, the likelihood of which may be affected by the levels of these biomarkers. In this dissertation, we investigate flexible Bayesian modeling of such data, taking into account any available covariate information as well as possible censoring of the drop-out times. We propose joint models for multiple biomarkers with multiple causes of dropout. Our proposed models …

Nudging The Fda, W. Nicholson Price Ii, I. Glenn Cohen

Law Faculty Scholarship

[Excerpt] "The FDA’s regulation of drugs is frequently the subject of policy debate, with arguments falling into two camps. On the one hand, a libertarian view of patients and the health care system holds high the value of consumer choice. Patients should get all the information and the drugs they want; the FDA should do what it can to enforce some basic standards but should otherwise get out of the way. On the other hand, a paternalist view values the FDA’s role as an expert agency standing between patients and a set of potentially dangerous drugs and potentially unscrupulous or …

Lost In Translation: Animal Models And Clinical Trials In Cancer Treatment, Isabella W.Y. Mak, Nathan Evaniew, Michelle Ghert

Human Clinical Trials Collection

Due to practical and ethical concerns associated with human experimentation, animal models have been essential in cancer research. However, the average rate of successful translation from animal models to clinical cancer trials is less than 8%. Animal models are limited in their ability to mimic the extremely complex process of human carcinogenesis, physiology and progression. Therefore the safety and efficacy identified in animal studies is generally not translated to human trials. Animal models can serve as an important source of in vivo information, but alternative translational approaches have emerged that may eventually replace the link between in vitro studies and …

Hypothesis Testing For An Extended Cox Model With Time-Varying Coefficients, Takumi Saegusa, Chongzhi Di, Ying Qing Chen

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The log-rank test has been widely used to test a treatment effect under the Cox model for censored time-to-event outcomes, though it may lose power substantially when the model's proportional hazards assumption does not hold. In this paper, we consider an extended Cox model that uses B-splines or smoothing splines to model a time-varying treatment effect and propose score test statistics for the treatment effect. Our proposed new tests combine statistical evidence from both the magnitude and the shape of the time-varying hazard ratio function, and thus are omnibus and powerful against various types of alternatives. In addition, the new …

An Evaluation Of Inferential Procedures For Adaptive Clinical Trial Designs With Pre-Specified Rules For Modifying The Sample Size, Greg P. Levin, Sarah C. Emerson, Scott S. Emerson

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Many papers have introduced adaptive clinical trial methods that allow modifications to the sample size based on interim estimates of treatment effect. There has been extensive commentary on type I error control and efficiency considerations, but little research on estimation after an adaptive hypothesis test. We evaluate the reliability and precision of different inferential procedures in the presence of an adaptive design with pre-specified rules for modifying the sampling plan. We extend group sequential orderings of the outcome space based on the stage at stopping, likelihood ratio test statistic, and sample mean to the adaptive setting in order to compute …

In Step With Hiv Vaccines? A Content Analysis Of Local Recruitment Campaigns For An International Hiv Vaccine Study, Paula M. Frew, Wendy Macias, Kayshin Chan, Ashley Harding

Environmental & Global Health Faculty Research

During the past two decades of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, several recruitment campaigns were designed to generate community involvement in preventive HIV vaccine clinical trials. These efforts utilized a blend of advertising and marketing strategies mixed with public relations and community education approaches to attract potential study participants to clinical trials (integrated marketing communications). Although more than 30,000 persons worldwide have participated in preventive HIV vaccine studies, no systematic analysis of recruitment campaigns exists. This content analysis study was conducted to examine several United States and Canadian recruitment campaigns for one of the largest-scale HIV vaccine trials to date (the “Step …

Covariate Adjustment For The Intention-To-Treat Parameter With Empirical Efficiency Maximization, Daniel B. Rubin, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In randomized experiments, the intention-to-treat parameter is defined as the difference in expected outcomes between groups assigned to treatment and control arms. There is a large literature focusing on how (possibly misspecified) working models can sometimes exploit baseline covariate measurements to gain precision, although covariate adjustment is not strictly necessary. In Rubin and van der Laan (2008), we proposed the technique of empirical efficiency maximization for improving estimation by forming nonstandard fits of such working models. Considering a more realistic randomization scheme than in our original article, we suggest a new class of working models for utilizing covariate information, show …

Asymptotic Results For Simultaneous Group Sequential Analysis Of Rank-Based And Weighted Kaplan-Meier Tests With Paired Survival Data In The Presence Of Censoring. Technical Report, Adin-Cristian Andrei, Susan Murray

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

This research sequentially monitors paired survival differences using a new class of non-parametric tests based on functionals of standardized paired weighted log-rank (PWLR) and standardized paired weighted Kaplan-Meier (PWKM) tests. During a trial these tests may alternately assume the role of the more extreme statistic. By monitoring PEMAX, the maximum between the absolute values of the standardized PWLR and PWKM, one combines advantages of rank-based and non rank-based paired testing paradigms. Simulations show that monitoring treatment differences using PEMAX maintains type I error and is nearly as powerful as using the more advantageous of the two tests, in proportional hazards …

Mean Response Models Of Repeated Measurements In Presence Of Varying Effectiveness Onset, Ying Qing Chen, Su-Chun Cheng

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Repeated measurements are often collected over time to evaluate treatment efficacy in clinical trials. Most of the statistical models of the repeated measurements have been focusing on their mean response as function of time. These models usually assume that the treatment has persistent effect of constant additivity or multiplicity on the mean response functions throughout the observation period of time. In reality, however, such assumption may be confounded by the potential existence of the so-called effectiveness action onset, although they are often unobserved or difficult to obtain. Instead of including nonparametric time-varying coefficients in the mean response models, we propose …

Causal Inference In Hybrid Intervention Trials Involving Treatment Choice, Qi Long, Rod Little, Xihong Lin

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Randomized allocation of treatments is a cornerstone of experimental design, but has drawbacks when a limited set of individuals are willing to be randomized, or the act of randomization undermines the success of the treatment. Choice-based experimental designs allow a subset of the participants to choose their treatments. We discuss here causal inferences for experimental designs where some participants are randomly allocated to treatments and others receive their treatment preference. This paper was motivated by the “Women Take Pride” (WTP) study (Janevic et al., 2001), a doubly randomized preference trail (DRPT) to assess behavioral interventions for women with heart disease. …

Mixtures Of Varying Coefficient Models For Longitudinal Data With Discrete Or Continuous Non-Ignorable Dropout, Joseph W. Hogan, Xihong Lin, Benjamin A. Herman

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The analysis of longitudinal repeated measures data is frequently complicated by missing data due to informative dropout. We describe a mixture model for joint distribution for longitudinal repeated measures, where the dropout distribution may be continuous and the dependence between response and dropout is semiparametric. Specifically, we assume that responses follow a varying coefficient random effects model conditional on dropout time, where the regression coefficients depend on dropout time through unspecified nonparametric functions that are estimated using step functions when dropout time is discrete (e.g., for panel data) and using smoothing splines when dropout time is continuous. Inference under the …

Probabilities Of Transition Among Health States For Older Adults, Paula Diehr, Donald L. Patrick

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Goal: To estimate the probabilities of transition among self-rated health states for older adults, and examine how they vary by age and sex. Methods: We used self-rated health (Excellent, Very Good, Good, Fair, Poor, Dead) collected in two longitudinal studies of older adults (Mean age 75) to estimate the probability of transition in two years. We used the estimates to project future health for selected cohorts.

Findings: These older adults were most likely to be in the same health state 2 years later, but a substantial proportion changed in both directions. Transition probabilities varied by initial health state, age and …

A Class Of Semiparametric Scale-Change Hazards Regression Models And Its Adequacy For Censored Survival Data, Ying Qing Chen

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

A class of semiparametric hazards regression models called the accelerated hazards models was introduced to identify the covariate effect characterized by the scale-change between hazard functions. In this article, we compare the accelerated hazards models with several other popular classes of regression models in statistical literature for censored survival data. We also propose and study some test statistics to assess the models' adequacy. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the test statistics. Actual clinical trials data are analyzed to demonstrate the proposed models and test statistics.