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Pregnancies, Abortions, And Pregnancy Intentions: A Protocol For Modeling And Reporting Global, Regional And Country Estimates, Jonathan Marc Bearak, Anna Popinchalk, Gilda Sedgh, Bela Ganatra, Ann-Beth Moller, Özge Tunçalp, Leontine Alkema
Pregnancies, Abortions, And Pregnancy Intentions: A Protocol For Modeling And Reporting Global, Regional And Country Estimates, Jonathan Marc Bearak, Anna Popinchalk, Gilda Sedgh, Bela Ganatra, Ann-Beth Moller, Özge Tunçalp, Leontine Alkema
Biostatistics and Epidemiology Faculty Publications Series
Background
Estimates of pregnancies, abortions and pregnancy intentions can help assess how effectively women and couples are able to fulfil their childbearing aspirations. Abortion incidence estimates are also a necessary foundation for research on the safety of abortions performed and the consequences of unsafe abortion. Furthermore, periodic estimates of these indicators are needed to help inform policy and programmes.
Methods
We will develop a Bayesian hierarchical times series model which estimates levels and trends in pregnancy rates, abortion rates, and percentages of pregnancies and births unintended for each five-year period between 1990 and 2019. The model will be informed by …