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On The Statistical Accuracy Of Biomarker Assays Of Hiv Incidence, Ron Brookmeyer
On The Statistical Accuracy Of Biomarker Assays Of Hiv Incidence, Ron Brookmeyer
Ron Brookmeyer
Objective: To evaluate the statistical accuracy of estimates of current HIV incidence rates from cross-sectional surveys, and to identify characteristics of assays that improve accuracy.
Methods: Performed mathematical and statistical analysis of the cross-sectional estimator of HIV incidence to evaluate bias and variance. Developed probability models to evaluate impact of long tails of the window period distribution on accuracy.
Results: The standard cross-sectional estimate of HIV incidence rate is estimating a time-lagged incidence where the lag time, called the shadow, depends on the mean and the coefficient of variation of window periods. Equations show how the shadow increases with the …