Applied Statistics Commons^™

Muon Lifetime: Theory, Experiment, And Simulation, Soren Agustin Munoz

Physics

This senior project investigates the muon lifetime through three complementary approaches: theoretical calculation, laboratory measurement, and computational simulation. The theoretical component develops the necessary background from relativistic field theory to the effective weak interaction, culminating in the leading-order Fermi-theory prediction of τ ≈ 2.2 μs, which explains why the muon lifetime lies on the microsecond scale.

The experimental component measures the lifetime of stopped cosmic-ray muons using a plastic scintillator, photomultiplier tube, and analog timing electronics. A binned Poisson likelihood fit to the primary 15-day acquisition run τ = 2.17^+0.03_-0.09 μs, consistent with the accepted value within the …

Crab: A Novel Clustering Score Using Clustering With Rivals And Buddies For Unsupervised Learning, Allen Choi

Master's Theses

Unsupervised clustering algorithms today are used across a wide variety of fields such as biology, engineering, and industry in order to classify observations into groups where labels are not provided. This can provide important latent information regarding the observations within groups, as well as insight regarding the groups themselves. In order to judge the optimal number of clusters for an unsupervised clustering algorithm, many methods exist such as the Elbow Method and Silhouette Score; however, these methods come with drawbacks and are not necessarily flexible across many unsupervised methods. We present a novel clustering score framework relying on a resampling-based …

Multimodal Machine Learning For Soil Burn Severity Mapping Across California Wildfires, Sanjana Checker

Master's Theses

Accurate mapping of soil burn severity (SBS) is critical for post-fire watershed management, erosion risk assessment, and ecological recovery planning, yet traditional field-based approaches remain costly, time-intensive, and spatially limited. This thesis presents a machine learning pipeline for wall-to-wall SBS classification across California wildfires using multi-sensor satellite imagery, terrain derivatives, and bioclimatic covariates. Field-collected SBS observations (n = 2,180) from 52 wildfires occur- ring between 2013 and 2025, sourced from the U.S. Forest Service and CAL FIRE, were used to train and evaluate multiple classification architectures within a Google Earth Engine and Google Cloud-based prediction framework. After upsampling the unburned …

Conditional Product Sampling For Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces, Song Shi

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces (GPISes) provide a powerful and unified stochastic geometry representation for rendering surfaces, volumes, and the rich continuum between them. Recent work has shown that GPISes can model a broad space of visual appearances under a unified light transport framework. However, practical rendering with GPISes remains challenging: existing estimators can become inefficient for particular correlation structures, and highly anisotropic or heightfield-like GPISes require specialized treatment to obtain robust variance reduction.

This thesis extends recent work on GPIS rendering by introducing a new next-event estimation (NEE) technique for anisotropic GPISes.We show that standard NEE provides diminishing benefits as …

An Analytical Framework For Quantifying Urban And Community Resilience To Natural Hazards From Cell-Phone Gps-Location And Traffic-Flow Data, Georgios Chatzikyriakidis

Civil and Environmental Engineering Theses and Dissertations

Urban areas are increasingly exposed to natural hazards while accommodating a growing share of the global population, yet a consistent science-based framework for quantifying urban and community resilience remains lacking. This dissertation develops a physics-based analytical framework grounded in statistical mechanics and the quantitative theory of Brownian motion. A city is conceptualized as a complex medium in which citizens move analogously to Brownian particles within a viscoelastic environment, influenced by socioeconomic interactions and infrastructure functionality.

A central premise is that urban resilience, interpreted as engineering resilience (an outcome), can be quantified through a single metric: the mean-square displacement MSD=⟨r²(t)⟩, of …

Developing A Comprehensive Resource Guide For Caregivers Within The Area Agency On Aging, Aiden R. Murphy

Public Health Capstone Projects

This project developed a new universal caregiver resource guide for caregivers within the Area Agency on Aging, in order to improve resource navigation and workflow efficiency. Resources were collected, verified, and organized into a new, streamlined guide via the ARIA chatbot, covering multiple needs. Caregiver resources were collected and verified by the capstone student and mentor, Michael Kroeker, and organized into a centralized knowledge base within the ARIA chatbot. A mixed methods evaluation was conducted utilizing a 5-point Likert scale with three quantitative questions and one open-ended qualitative question. The data was given to the SeniorLine staff, who wanted to …

Pyspqr: A Python Package For Density Estimation Using Deep Learning, Cameron Eddy, Reetam Majumder

Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

Splines are used for representing complex functions. In statistics, splines can be used for distributional shapes that are difficult to model by traditional parametric approaches. Ramsay (1) uses M-Spline bases to estimate continuous distributions. Semi-Parametric Quantile Regression (SPQR), developed by Xu and Reich (2), models conditional distributions where a neural network is used to estimate the basis function weights that depend on covariates. (3) implements a package for SPQR in R. We build on this by implementing a version of SPQR in Python with PyTorch. By using PyTorch, we can use more sophisticated deep learning architectures than those available in …

A General Weighting Theory For Ensemble Learning: Beyond Variance Reduction Via Spectral And Geometric Structure, Ernest Fokoue

Articles

Ensemble learning is traditionally justified as a variance-reduction strategy, explaining its strong performance for unstable predictors such as decision trees. This explanation, however, does not account for ensembles constructed from intrinsically stable estimators-including smoothing splines, kernel ridge regression, Gaussian process regression, and other regularized reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) methods whose variance is already tightly controlled by regularization and spectral shrinkage. This paper develops a general weighting theory for ensemble learning that moves beyond classical variance-reduction arguments. We formalize ensembles as linear operators acting on a hypothesis space and endow the space of weighting sequences with geometric and spectral constraints. …

Automating Cardiff Model Data Capture In Emergency Departments: Ambient Nlp Integration With Oracle-Cerner Fhir Systems, Simi Augustine, Marco A. Lopez, Jacquelyn Cheun, Chris Papesh

SMU Data Science Review

Violence and overdose events in Las Vegas occur at rates above the national average, with fewer than half of violent injuries reported to law enforcement [2,7]. The Cardiff Model offers a proven framework for standardized data collection and sharing between hospitals and public safety partners, yet many implementations still rely on manual entry. We propose an ambient triage pipeline integrated with Oracle-Cerner electronic health record systems to listen to nurse–patient dialogue, convert speech to text, extract Cardiff fields, and write standards-based FHIR Bundles for analytics. Using SMART on FHIR standards and Cerner Millennium APIs, the study evaluates whether ambient capture …

Using Ensemble Disagreement To Stabilize Conformal Prediction Under Distribution Shift, Patrick D. Murphy

Master's Theses

Semantic segmentation of eelgrass from drone imagery is crucial for coastal habitat monitoring, restoration, and management, as these habitats continue to see rapid changes due to climate change and human influence. However, the reliability of generalizing a deployed classification model relies on both high-accuracy segmentation as well as robust uncertainty quantification that holds up when conditions change over years or locations. Conformal prediction (CP) is a method that converts a classifier's output into prediction sets with a guaranteed average coverage level for in-distribution data. However, the “vanilla” conformal score can often under-cover in hard or out-of-distribution (OOD) regions under drift. …

Use Of Tezepelumab For Chronic Rhinosinusitis With Nasal Polyps By Eosinophilic Endotype: Waypoint Post-Hoc Analysis, Shigeharu Fujieda, Nobuyoshi Otori, Joseph K. Han, Tadataka Yabuta, Claudia Chen, Claudio Marchese, Andrews Foster, Sandhia S. Ponnarambil, Yun Chan, Brian J. Lipworth

Department of Otolaryngology (ENT) Faculty Publications

Background

The phase 3 WAYPOINT study (NCT04851964) reported that tezepelumab improved outcomes in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), including nasal polyp size, nasal congestion, and sinonasal symptoms, and reduced the need for surgery and systemic corticosteroids (SCS).

Objective

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of tezepelumab across Japanese Epidemiological Survey of Refractory Eosinophilic Chronic Rhinosinusitis-defined eosinophilic chronic rhinosinusitis (ECRS) subgroups.

Methods

Adults with severe CRSwNP were randomized to tezepelumab 210 mg or placebo every 4 weeks. Coprimary end points were the change from baseline to week 52 in total Nasal Polyp Score and the biweekly mean Nasal …

Beyond The Lace Index: Benchmarking Machine Learning Architectures And Explaining 30-Day Hospital Readmission Risk With Shap Analysis, Carl E. Hughes Iii

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Unplanned 30-day hospital readmission remains a fundamental challenge in US healthcare, associated with increased risk to patient recovery and representing an estimated $52.4 billion in annual expenses (Beauvais et al., 2022). While the rigorously validated LACE index serves as the clinical standard for readmission modeling, its linear structure and four explanatory variables lack the complexity to capture the high-dimensional and interactive nature of patient risk. This study utilizes an admission granularity level cohort of the MIMIC-IV database to develop and compare machine learning architectures against the baseline LACE index. Due to the imbalanced prevalence of readmission, the penalized logistic regression, …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Machine Learning-Based Intrusion Detection System For Iot Networks Using The Rt-Iot 2022 Dataset, Bukunmi Ebenezer Afolabi

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

The rapid expansion of the Internet of Things (IoT) has transformed modern computing by enabling seamless connectivity among heterogeneous devices across diverse application domains. However, this increased interconnectivity has significantly enlarged the attack surface of IoT networks, exposing them to a wide range of sophisticated cyber threats. Conventional security mechanisms often lack the capability to detect emerging attacks in real time, thereby necessitating the development of intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) capable of accurately identifying malicious network activities. This study developed and evaluated a machine learning-based intrusion detection framework for multiclass IoT attack detection using the RT-IoT2022 dataset. The dataset …

Swimming In Uncertainty: Filling Data Gaps And Providing An Educational Platform For Beach Water Quality At Tybee Island, Georgia, Lukas Roberson

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

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Swimming in beaches water contaminated with high levels of bacteria can make you sick. Current monitoring at the public beaches on Tybee Island consists of weekly monitoring and enumeration of fecal indicator bacteria that takes 24 hours for results. If the number of bacteria exceed regulatory limits, a public health advisory is issued, and affected waters are retested until …

Variational Autoencoder Inverse Mapper For Extraction Of Compton Form Factors: Benchmarks And Conditional Learning, Douglas Adams, Md Fayaz Bin Hossen, Joshua Bautista, Gia-Wei Chern, Simonetta Liuti, Marie Boër, Marija Čuić, Michael Engelhardt, Gary R. Goldstein, Huey-Wen Lin, Yaohang Li

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Deeply virtual exclusive scattering processes (DVES) serve as precise probes of nucleon quark and gluon distributions in coordinate space. These distributions are derived from generalized parton distributions (GPDs) via Fourier transform relative to proton momentum transfer. QCD factorization theorems enable DVES to be parameterized by Compton form factors (CFFs), which are convolutions of GPDs with perturbatively calculable kernels. Accurate extraction of CFFs from DVCS, benefiting from interference with the Bethe–Heitler (BH) process and a simpler final state structure, is essential for inferring GPDs. This paper focuses on extracting CFFs from DVCS data using a variational autoencoder inverse mapper (VAIM) and …

Performance Of Numerical Methods Applied To The Black–Scholes Model, Scott Cameron Williams

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

We compare five numerical approaches for approximating solutions to the Black–Scholes partial differential equation for pricing European call options: FTCS, BTCS, Crank– Nicolson, Monte Carlo simulation, and a physics–informed neural network (PINN). These methods span finite difference techniques, probabilistic simulation, and machine learning. Performance is evaluated based on computational efficiency and accuracy relative to the analytical Black–Scholes solution.

Among the methods, Crank–Nicolson and the PINN demonstrated the strongest overall performance. Crank–Nicolson achieved the highest accuracy but exhibited increased runtime as the number of underlying stock price grid points grew. In contrast, the PINN produced slightly less accurate results but with …

Coupled Machine Learning Models: Combining Observations And Numerical Analysis In A Physics-Regularized Approach, Austin B. Schmidt

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates surrogate modeling for fixed-location environmental forecasting using novel data-combination techniques. The work surveys the landscape of observational measurements and numerically generated data, identifying similar research and gaps in current methodologies. The ratio-coupled training framework is introduced to combine two data sources per predicted feature through a tunable parameter that weights training signal strength. An optimization scheme is developed to simultaneously tune surrogate weights and the coupled signal ratio, allowing relative influence between signals to act as an explicit regularizer. Three case studies demonstrate the methodology and approach in a variety of contexts. The first study is based …

A Leslie System For A Demographic Simulation: From An Actuarial Point Of View, David Kings

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a discrete stochastic linear systems interpretation of age–stage demographic evolution grounded in Leslie operators and realized in a discrete-event simulation implemented with salabim. The central claim is that one annual cycle of the simulation constitutes a cone-preserving, stochastic affine transformation on a high- dimensional population state vector indexed by age, sex, marital status, household type, employment, and education, and that the composition of yearly operators yields a random matrix product whose top Lyapunov exponent is the stochastic counterpart of the Perron–Frobenius growth rate (Caswell, 2001; Tuljapurkar, 1997)[1, 2]. The actuarial bridge is constructed by mapping simulated survival …

Online Prediction Of Streaming Data, Aleena Chanda

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

We present two new approaches for point prediction with streaming data based on a) the Count-Min sketch and b) Gaussian Process Priors with random bias. The methods are intended for the most general case where no true model can be usefully formulated for the data stream. In statistical contexts, this is often called the M open problem class. For the Count Min Sketch method we show that the predicted distribution function ^F converges to F under the assumption that the data consists of i.i.d samples from a fixed distribution function F. To implement the Gaussian Process Prior methods, we used …

Advancing Real-World Implementation Of The Well Optimized Linear Finder (Wolf) High-Speed Atmospheric Turbulence Compensation Method, Timothy Evan Coon

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation advances the real-world implementation of the Well Optimized Linear Finder (WOLF) method for high-speed Atmospheric Turbulence Compensation (ATC). Atmospheric turbulence introduces phase aberrations into optical wavefronts and degrades image quality in terrestrial imaging systems. Traditional phase diversity methods are computationally intensive and poorly suited to real-time operation. The WOLF method addresses these limitations through a novel, point-wise formulation of the optical transfer function (OTF) as a structured autocorrelation of the generalized pupil function (GPF). This formulation enables the estimation of phase aberrations at individual spatial coordinates with distributed computational complexity.

The research begins by developing a MATLAB-based simulation …

Syntax-Enhanced Boundary-Aware Named Entity Recognition Model, Chuanming Yu, Bin Deng, Zhengang Zhang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] This study addresses the issue of inadequate perception of entity boundaries in traditional character-level modeling-based named entity recognition models by integrating syntax information containing entity boundary features into the task using a multi-head graph attention network with dense connections. This integration enhances the effectiveness of named entity recognition.

[Method/process] This study proposes a Syntax-enhanced Boundary-aware Named Entity Recognition Model (SynBNER), which utilizes BERT for text semantic representation and integrates syntax information using a dense-connected graph attention network. This integration incorporates implicit entity boundary information from syntax information into word representations, thereby enhancing the model's entity boundary perception capability.

[Result/conclusion] …

How’S It Growing? Tools For Observing Snow And Sea Ice In A Changing Arctic Ocean, Ian Alexander Raphael

Dartmouth College Ph.D Dissertations

September Arctic sea ice extent has diminished by roughly 50% in the 45 years since satellite observations began. The Arctic Ocean may experience ice-free summers within the next decade, with implications for habitat, resource extraction, geopolitics, and local and global climate change. To predict how Arctic sea ice will change in the future, we need to understand its behavior in the present. In situ sea ice mass balance measurements (snow accumulation, ice growth, snow and ice surface melt, and bottom melt) are essential for studying the processes driving rapid changes in the ice pack, and for validating remote sensing measurements …

A Comparative Study Of Neural Networks And Xgboost Models For Flight Time Prediction, Ioannis Paraschos, Taryn E. Trimble, Eshna Bhargava, Jake Klingler, Benjamin R. Nicolai

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

Flight time prediction plays a crucial role in modern air travel, benefiting airlines and passengers alike. Accurate predictions enable airlines to optimize schedules, allocate resources effectively, and ensure passenger safety and satisfaction. In recent years, machine learning models, such as neural networks and XGBoost, have gained popularity for predicting flight times. This study aims to compare the performance of neural network and XGBoost models in predicting flight times, considering factors such as weather conditions, air traffic control, and aircraft performance. The results indicate that both models are effective, with XGBoost achieving slightly higher accuracy. However, neural networks offer advantages in …

Mat 301 - Applied Statistics And Data Analysis, Eric Aragundi

Open Educational Resources

Data analysis using standard statistical methods and relevant computer software. Emphasis on real-world data, interpretation, and misinterpretation of computer output.

This syllabus contains open source notebook about data analysis content.

Multimodal Benchmarking For Ncaa Basketball, Brendan Barnett

Honors Scholar Theses

We present the first multimodal, multitask benchmark for NCAA basketball, synthesizing structured statistical features with large language model (LLM)-generated game summaries across 19,739 games spanning four NCAA Division I seasons (2021--2025). We evaluate three model families---XGBoost, deep neural networks, and Transformers---under tabular-only and early-fusion settings to measure the impact of LLM-derived textual embeddings. To assess practical utility, we simulate fixed-stake and Kelly criterion-based betting strategies using historical bookmaker odds, analyzing both profitability and downside risk via Monte Carlo simulation. Our results show that XGBoost with early-fusion achieves the highest return on investment and the lowest risk of loss. This work …

Investigating Students’ Proficiency Across Statistical Software And Preferences Of Statistical Software Design, Sabrina White

Honors College Theses

This paper investigated students’ perceptions of their proficiency with statistical software applications and their preferences regarding software features. Results indicated that students’ statistical and coding experience, as well as the specific application used, did not significantly influence their self-perceived proficiency. This suggests that it may be more effective to focus on building student skills within a chosen application, rather than tailoring the application to match existing student capabilities. While students showed clear preferences for certain features, favoring clarity over depth, flexibility over safeguards, and built-in checks over unrestricted freedom, these preferences generally leaned toward balanced design rather than extremes. This …

Expressive And Interpretable User Engagement Prediction Using Multivariate Survival Processes, Akshay Aravamudan

Theses and Dissertations

The ability to characterize how information diffuses online is of paramount importance to stakeholders that are interested in tasks such as proposing solutions for mitigating and countering dis/misinformation, predicting user engagement of content in social media, planning marketing campaigns to roll-out products and planning dissemination of political campaign messaging among others. One such facet of learning the dynamics of information diffusion is the ability to predict user engagement or the popularity of a single piece of information as it spreads through an online medium. Existing works in this regard mainly either obfuscate user level information or utilize frameworks that are …

A Text Mining And Sentiment Analysis Of Valuable Cie Texts Using R, Eric Sugarman, Ethan Turber-Ortiz, Hannah Quinn

Mathematics, Computer Science & Statistics Presentations

The purpose of this project was to perform a sentiment analysis of three texts used in Ursinus College's Common Intellectual Experience (CIE) course: Between the World and Me by Ta-Nehisi Coates, The New Jim Crow by Michelle Alexander and Discourse on Method by Rene Descartes. Word count and word cloud analysis were also performed on the texts as well as term frequency and bigram analysis.

A Machine-Learning Tool-Supported Methodology For Nonprofit Donor Analysis, Corbin Weiss

Campus Research Month

We developed a machine-learning tool-supported methodology for modeling the nonprofit donor relationship. This approach was demonstrated in the case of a US-based nonprofit. Conclusions were drawn from this example and tool-support provided for use by other nonprofits.