Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Calculus Of The Impossible: Review Of The Improbability Principle (2014) By David Hand And The Logic Of Miracles (2018) By Lásló Mérő, Samuel L. Tunstall

Numeracy

David J. Hand. 2014. The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day (New York, NY: Scientific American/Farrar, Straus and Giroux) 288 pp. ISBN: 978-0374175344.

Lásló Mérő. 2018. The Logic of Miracles: Making Sense of Rare, Really Rare, and Impossibly Rare Events (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press) 288 pp. ISBN: 978-0300224153.

David Hand and Lásló Mérő both grapple with the occurrence of seemingly impossible events in these two popular science books. In this comparative review, I describe the two books, and explain why I prefer Hand's treatment of the impossible.

Golden Arm: A Probabilistic Study Of Dice Control In Craps, Donald R. Smith, Robert Scott Iii

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

This paper calculates how much control a craps shooter must possess on dice outcomes to eliminate the house advantage. A golden arm is someone who has dice control (or a rhythm roller or dice influencer). There are various strategies for dice control in craps. We discuss several possibilities of dice control that would result in several different mathematical models of control. We do not assert whether dice control is possible or not (there is a lack of published evidence). However, after studying casino-legal methods described by dice-control advocates, we can see only one realistic mathematical model that describes the resulting …

Estimation Of The Three Key Parameters And The Lead Time Distribution In Lung Cancer Screening., Ruiqi Liu

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation contains three research projects on cancer screening probability modeling. Cancer screening is the primary technique for early detection. The goal of screening is to catch the disease early before clinical symptoms appear. In these projects, the three key parameters and lead time distribution were estimated to provide a statistical point of view on the effectiveness of cancer screening programs. In the first project, cancer screening probability model was used to analyze the computed tomography (CT) scan group in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) data. Three key parameters were estimated using Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo …

Educational Magic Tricks Based On Error-Detection Schemes, Ronald I. Greenberg

Computer Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works

Magic tricks based on computer science concepts help grab student attention and can motivate them to delve more deeply. Error detection ideas long used by computer scientists provide a rich basis for working magic; probably the most well known trick of this type is one included in the CS Unplugged activities. This paper shows that much more powerful variations of the trick can be performed, some in an unplugged environment and some with computer assistance. Some of the tricks also show off additional concepts in computer science and discrete mathematics.

The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment, Randy K. Schwartz

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Malaria has been humanity’s worst public health problem throughout recorded history. Mathematical methods are needed to understand which factors are relevant to the disease and to develop counter-measures against it. This article and the accompanying exercises provide examples of those methods for use in lower- or upper-level courses dealing with probability, statistics, or population modeling. These can be used to illustrate such concepts as correlation, causation, conditional probability, and independence. The article explains how the apparent link between sickle cell trait and resistance to malaria was first verified in Uganda using the chi-squared probability distribution. It goes on to explain …

Influences Of Probability Instruction On Undergraduates' Understanding Of Counting Processes, Kayla Blyman

Theses and Dissertations--Education Sciences

Historically, students in an introductory finite mathematics course at a major university in the mid-south have struggled the most with the counting and probability unit, leading instructors to question if there was a better way to help students master the material. The purpose of this study was to begin to understand connections that undergraduate finite mathematics students are making between counting and probability. By examining student performance in counting and probability, this study provides insights that inform future instruction in courses that include counting and probability. Consequently, this study lays the groundwork for future inquiries in the field of undergraduate …

A New Approximation Scheme For Monte Carlo Applications, Bo Jones

CMC Senior Theses

Approximation algorithms employing Monte Carlo methods, across application domains, often require as a subroutine the estimation of the mean of a random variable with support on [0,1]. One wishes to estimate this mean to within a user-specified error, using as few samples from the simulated distribution as possible. In the case that the mean being estimated is small, one is then interested in controlling the relative error of the estimate. We introduce a new (epsilon, delta) relative error approximation scheme for [0,1] random variables and provide a comparison of this algorithm's performance to that of an existing approximation scheme, both …

Statistics For Middle And High School Teachers: A Resource For Middle And High School Teachers To Feel Better Prepared To Teach The Common Core State Standards (Ccss) Relating To Statistics, Nanci Kopecky

All Capstone Projects

The purpose of this project is to create a two-day workshop to better prepare middle and high school teachers to teach probability and statistics as required by the Common Core State Standards (CCSS), which have broadened the mathematics curriculum to include in depth understanding of probability and statistics. Many teachers are not prepared to address probability and statistics concepts. Research has demonstrated a need for greater professional development and resources for teachers in this area. The two-day workshop will allow teachers to review their knowledge and enhance their understanding of statistics by emphasizing student-centered teaching examples. Technology and/or software will …

Passive Visual Analytics Of Social Media Data For Detection Of Unusual Events, Kush Rustagi, Junghoon Chae

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Now that social media sites have gained substantial traction, huge amounts of un-analyzed valuable data are being generated. Posts containing images and text have spatiotemporal data attached as well, having immense value for increasing situational awareness of local events, providing insights for investigations and understanding the extent of incidents, their severity, and consequences, as well as their time-evolving nature. However, the large volume of unstructured social media data hinders exploration and examination. To analyze such social media data, the S.M.A.R.T system provides the analyst with an interactive visual spatiotemporal analysis and spatial decision support environment that assists in evacuation planning …

Thinking Poker Through Game Theory, Damian Palafox

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Poker is a complex game to analyze. In this project we will use the mathematics of game theory to solve some simplified variations of the game. Probability is the building block behind game theory. We must understand a few concepts from probability such as distributions, expected value, variance, and enumeration methods to aid us in studying game theory. We will solve and analyze games through game theory by using different decision methods, decision trees, and the process of domination and simplification. Poker models, with and without cards, will be provided to illustrate optimal strategies. Extensions to those models will be …

Elements Of The Mathematical Formulation Of Quantum Mechanics, Keunjae Go

Senior Honors Papers / Undergraduate Theses

In this paper, we will explore some of the basic elements of the mathematical formulation of quantum mechanics. In the first section, I will list the motivations for introducing a probability model that is quite different from that of the classical probability theory, but still shares quite a few significant commonalities. Later in the paper, I will discuss the quantum probability theory in detail, while paying a brief attention to some of the axioms (by Birkhoff and von Neumann) that illustrate both the commonalities and differences between classical mechanics and quantum mechanics. This paper will end with a presentation of …

No-Arbitrage Option Pricing And The Binomial Asset Pricing Model, Nicholas S. Hurley

Honors College Theses

Financial markets often employ the use of securities, which are defined to be any kind of tradable financial asset. Common types of securities include stocks and bonds. A particular type of security, known as a derivative security (or simply, a derivative), are financial instruments whose value is derived from another underlying security or asset (such as a stock). A common kind of derivative is an option, which is a contract that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to go through with the terms of said contract. An example of an option is the European Option, which we …

Boundary Problems For One And Two Dimensional Random Walks, Miky Wright

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

This thesis provides a study of various boundary problems for one and two dimensional random walks. We first consider a one-dimensional random walk that starts at integer-valued height k > 0, with a lower boundary being the x-axis, and on each step moving downward with probability q being greater than or equal to the probability of going upward p. We derive the variance and the standard deviation of the number of steps T needed for the height to reach 0 from k, by first deriving the moment generating function of T. We then study two types of two-dimensional random walks with …

Cycle Lengths Of Θ-Biased Random Permutations, Tongjia Shi

HMC Senior Theses

Consider a probability distribution on the permutations of n elements. If the probability of each permutation is proportional to θ^K, where K is the number of cycles in the permutation, then we say that the distribution generates a θ-biased random permutation. A random permutation is a special θ-biased random permutation with θ = 1. The m^th moment of the r^th longest cycle of a random permutation is Θ(n^m), regardless of r and θ. The joint moments are derived, and it is shown that the longest cycles of a permutation can either be positively or …

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …

Applications Of Bayesian Statistics In Fluvial Bed Load Transport, Mark L. Schmelter

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The science of fluvial sediment transport studies the processes involved in the movement of river sediments. It is commonly understood that when rivers flood they have a great capacity to move sand, gravel, and even larger cobbles and boulders. This process is not only limited to the big floods that usually attract so much attention, but also the more common river flows play a very important role in forming a river. As engineers and scientists, we like to be able to develop equations and relationships that describe some natural phenomenon—in this case, fluvial sediment transport. While we are able to …

Mathematics And The Hunger Games, Michael A. Lewis

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

The Hunger Games plot features a dystopian future in which twelve outer districts are oppressed by a centralized capital. The story focuses on the heroism of a sixteen-year-old girl named Katniss and how she tries to rise above the oppression that she experiences. It also features a special lottery and other twists that are sources of mathematical interest. This essay focuses on some of the mathematical issues raised by The Hunger Games in an effort to show that this story can be used to teach students (as well as other interested parties) some important concepts from mathematics.

Foundations Of Inference, Kevin H. Knuth, John Skilling

Physics Faculty Scholarship

We present a simple and clear foundation for finite inference that unites and significantly extends the approaches of Kolmogorov and Cox. Our approach is based on quantifying lattices of logical statements in a way that satisfies general lattice symmetries. With other applications such as measure theory in mind, our derivations assume minimal symmetries, relying on neither negation nor continuity nor differentiability. Each relevant symmetry corresponds to an axiom of quantification, and these axioms are used to derive a unique set of quantifying rules that form the familiar probability calculus. We also derive a unique quantification of divergence, entropy and information.

Book Review: What’S Luck Got To Do With It? The History, Mathematics, And Psychology Of The Gambler’S Illusion By Joseph Mazur, Michael Lugo

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This review of Joseph Mazur's book on the history of gambling, for a general audience, is in three parts, paralleling the structure of the book. The first part briefly outlines Mazur's coverage of the history of probability from prehistory to the present day, with a focus on gambling. The second part examines the relationship between the mathematics of gambling and probability theory, and summarizes classical problems in probability arising from gambling such as Galileo's dice and the Pascal-Fermat problem of points. The third part, on psychology, discusses the gambler's illusion and psychological motivations for gambling.

Is Screening Cargo Containers For Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?, Jason R. W. Merrick, Laura A. Mclay

Statistical Sciences and Operations Research Publications

In recent years, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has installed radiation sensors to screen cargo containers entering theUnited States. They are concerned that terrorists could use containers to smuggle radiological material into the country and carry out attacks with dirty bombs or a nuclear device. Recent studies have questioned the value of improving this screening system with new sensor technology. The cost of delays caused by frequent false alarms outweighs any reduction in the probability of an attack in an expected cost analysis. We extend existing methodology in three ways to demonstrate how additional factors affect the value of screening …

Probability And Statistics For Third Through Fifth Grade Classrooms., Melissa Taylor Mckinnon

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This document contains a variety of lesson plans that can be readily used by a teacher of intermediate students. This thesis contains two units in Probability and one unit in Statistics. Any educator can supplement this document with any curriculum to teach lessons from vocabulary to concept.

Quadratic Regression Analysis For Gene Discovery And Pattern Recognition For Non-Cyclic Short Time-Course Microarray Experiments, Hua Liu, Sergey Tarima, Aaron S. Borders, Thomas V. Getchell, Marilyn L. Getchell, Arnold J. Stromberg

Statistics Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Cluster analyses are used to analyze microarray time-course data for gene discovery and pattern recognition. However, in general, these methods do not take advantage of the fact that time is a continuous variable, and existing clustering methods often group biologically unrelated genes together.

RESULTS: We propose a quadratic regression method for identification of differentially expressed genes and classification of genes based on their temporal expression profiles for non-cyclic short time-course microarray data. This method treats time as a continuous variable, therefore preserves actual time information. We applied this method to a microarray time-course study of gene expression at short …

Additivity Of Information Value In Two-Act Linear Loss Decisions With Normal Priors, Jeffrey Keisler

Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series

For the two-act linear loss decision problem with normal priors, conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information about two independent risks is super-additive in value. Several applications show how a variety of decision problems can reduce to the canonical problem, and how the general results obtained here can be translated simply to prescriptions for specific situations.

Constructive Criticism, Ronald C. Serlin

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Attempts to attain knowledge as certified true belief have failed to circumvent Hume’s injunction against induction. Theories must be viewed as unprovable, improbable, and undisprovable. The empirical basis is fallible, and yet the method of conjectures and refutations is untouched by Hume’s insights. The implications for statistical methodology is that the requisite severity of testing is achieved through the use of robust procedures, whose assumptions have not been shown to be substantially violated, to test predesignated range null hypotheses. Nonparametric range null hypothesis tests need to be developed to examine whether or not effect sizes or measures of association, as …

On Legal Interpretations Of The Condorcet Jury Theorem, Paul H. Edelman

Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications

There has been a spate of interest in the application of the Condorcet Jury Theorem to issues in the law. This theorem holds that a majority vote among a suitably large body of voters, all of whom are more likely than not to vote correctly, will almost surely result in the correct outcome. Its uses have ranged from estimating the correct size of juries to justifying the voting of creditors in Chapter 11 reorganizations. While the mathematics is unassailable, the legal interpretation of the conclusion is dependent on the model of probability one uses when invoking the assumption that the …

A Coin Flipping Game With Non Transitive Odds, Stacy Jurgens

Honors Capstones

Capstone submitted as a graduation requirement for the BSU Honors Program.

What's Best?, Arthur T. Benjamin, Matthew T. Fluet '99

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

No abstract provided in this article.

A Rational Solution To Cootie, Arthur T. Benjamin, Matthew T. Fluet '99

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

No abstract provided in this article.

The Moral Significance Of Indetectable Effects, Sven Ove Hansson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

A reassessment of Parfit's fifth "mistake in moral mathematics."

Book Review Of Deborah G. Mayo, Error And The Growth Of Experimental Knowledge (University Of Chicago Press 1996), Kristin S. Shrader-Frechette

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Review of the book: Deborah G. Mayo, Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge (University of Chicago Press 1996). Figures, index, preface, references. ISBN 0-226-51197-9 [493 pp. $74.00 Cloth; $29.95 Paper. 5801 S. Ellis Ave., Chicago, IL 60637.]