Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Sensitivity To Distributional Assumptions In Estimation Of The Odp Thresholding Function, Wendy Jill Bunn

Theses and Dissertations

Recent technological advances in fields like medicine and genomics have produced high-dimensional data sets and a challenge to correctly interpret experimental results. The Optimal Discovery Procedure (ODP) (Storey 2005) builds on the framework of Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing to optimally test thousands of hypotheses simultaneously. The method relies on the assumption of normally distributed data; however, many applications of this method will violate this assumption. This thesis investigates the sensitivity of this method to detection of significant but nonnormal data. Overall, estimation of the ODP with the method described in this thesis is satisfactory, except when the nonnormal alternative distribution has …

Approximate Bayesian Confidence Intervals For The Mean Of An Exponential Distribution Versus Fisher Matrix Bounds Models, Vincent A. R. Camara

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The aim of this article is to obtain and compare confidence intervals for the mean of an exponential distribution. Considering respectively the square error and the Higgins-Tsokos loss functions, approximate Bayesian confidence intervals for parameters of exponential population are derived. Using exponential data, the obtained approximate Bayesian confidence intervals will then be compared to the ones obtained with Fisher Matrix bounds method. It is shown that the proposed approximate Bayesian approach relies only on the observations. The Fisher Matrix bounds method, that uses the z-table, does not always yield the best confidence intervals, and the proposed approach often performs better.

Analysis And Applications Of Autoregressive Moving Average Models With Stochastic Variance, Shelton Peiris, Ramprasad Bhar, David E. Allen

Research outputs pre 2011

It is known that volatility plays a central role in financial modelling problems. This paper studies, in detail, a class of discrete time stochastic volatility (SV) models driven by ARMA models with innovations having a stochastic variances. The auto- correlation function of this class of models is derived and methods of identification of such processes are described. An example is added to illustrate the development of the theory over the standard methods.

Bayesian Reliability Modeling Using Monte Carlo Integration, Vincent A. R. Camara, Chris P. Tsokos

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Bayesian Reliability Modeling Using Monte Carlo IntegrationThe aim of this article is to introduce the concept of Monte Carlo Integration in Bayesian estimation and Bayesian reliability analysis. Using the subject concept, approximate estimates of parameters and reliability functions are obtained for the three-parameter Weibull and the gamma failure models. Four different loss functions are used: square error, Higgins-Tsokos, Harris, and a logarithmic loss function proposed in this article. Relative efficiency is used to compare results obtained under the above mentioned loss functions.

Loss-Based Cross-Validated Deletion/Substitution/Addition Algorithms In Estimation, Sandra E. Sinisi, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In van der Laan and Dudoit (2003) we propose and theoretically study a unified loss function based statistical methodology, which provides a road map for estimation and performance assessment. Given a parameter of interest which can be described as the minimizer of the population mean of a loss function, the road map involves as important ingredients cross-validation for estimator selection and minimizing over subsets of basis functions the empirical risk of the subset-specific estimator of the parameter of interest, where the basis functions correspond to a parameterization of a specified subspace of the complete parameter space. In this article we …

Loss-Based Estimation With Cross-Validation: Applications To Microarray Data Analysis And Motif Finding, Sandrine Dudoit, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Sunduz Keles, Annette M. Molinaro, Sandra E. Sinisi, Siew Leng Teng

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Current statistical inference problems in genomic data analysis involve parameter estimation for high-dimensional multivariate distributions, with typically unknown and intricate correlation patterns among variables. Addressing these inference questions satisfactorily requires: (i) an intensive and thorough search of the parameter space to generate good candidate estimators, (ii) an approach for selecting an optimal estimator among these candidates, and (iii) a method for reliably assessing the performance of the resulting estimator. We propose a unified loss-based methodology for estimator construction, selection, and performance assessment with cross-validation. In this approach, the parameter of interest is defined as the risk minimizer for a suitable …

Approximate Bayesian Confidence Intervals For The Variance Of A Gaussian Distribution, Vincent A. R. Camara

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The aim of the present study is to obtain and compare confidence intervals for the variance of a Gaussian distribution. Considering respectively the square error and the Higgins-Tsokos loss functions, approximate Bayesian confidence intervals for the variance of a normal population are derived. Using normal data and SAS software, the obtained approximate Bayesian confidence intervals will then be compared to the ones obtained with the well known classical method. The Bayesian approach relies only on the observations. It is shown that the proposed approximate Bayesian approach relies only on the observations. The classical method, that uses the Chi-square statistic, does …

Accelerated Hazards Model: Method, Theory And Applications, Ying Qing Chen, Nicholas P. Jewell, Jingrong Yang

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In an accelerated hazards model, the hazard functions of a failure time are related through the time scale-change, which is often a function of covariates and associated parameters. When the hazard functions have special properties, such as monotonicity in time, the parameters may be clinically meaningful in measuring a treatment effect. This paper reviews methodological and theoretical development of this model. Applications of the accelerated hazards model including sample size calculation in clinical trials, are also explored.

Generalized Moving Average Models And Applications In High Frequency Data, Shelton Peiris, David E. Allen, Aerambamoorthy Thavaneswaran

Research outputs pre 2011

This paper considers a new class of first order moving average type time series model with index δ (> 0) to describe some hidden features of a time series. It is shown that this class of models provides a valid, simple solution to a new direction of time series modelling. In particular, for suitably chosen parameters (coefficient β and index δ) this type of models could be used to describe data with low or high frequency components. Various new results associated with this class are given in a general form. A simulation study is carried out to justify the theory. …

Generalized Minimum Penalized Hellinger Distance Estimation And Generalized Penalized Hellinger Deviance Testing For Generalized Linear Models: The Discrete Case, Huey Yan

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

In this dissertation, robust and efficient alternatives to quasi-likelihood estimation and likelihood ratio tests are developed for discrete generalized linear models. The estimation method considered is a penalized minimum Hellinger distance procedure that generalizes a procedure developed by Harris and Basu for estimating parameters of a single discrete probability distribution from a random sample. A bootstrap algorithm is proposed to select the weight of the penalty term. Simulations are carried out to compare the new estimators with quasi-likelihood estimation. The robustness of the estimation procedure is demonstrated by simulation work and by Hapel's α-influence curve. Penalized minimum Hellinger deviance tests …

Some Statistical Models For Durations And Their Applications In Finance, Harry Zheng, David E. Allen, Lyn C. Thomas

Research outputs pre 2011

We first consider a new class of time series models (introduced by Engle and Russell (1998)) use in statistical applications in finance. These models treat the time between events (durations) as a stochastic process and the corresponding durations are modelled using a theory similar to that of autoregressive processes. This new class of time series models is called Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) models. Various extensions and the statistical properties of this class of ACD models are given. We also suggest some alternative models for durations arising from the market microstructure literature. An estimation procedure is discussed. The theory is illustrated …

Adaptive Density Estimation Based On The Mode Existence Test, Nizar Sami Jawhar

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The kernel persists as the most useful tool for density estimation. Although, in general, fixed kernel estimates have proven superior to results of available variable kernel estimators, Minnotte's mode tree and mode existence test give us newfound hope of producing a useful adaptive kernel estimator that triumphs when the fixed kernel methods fail. It improves on the fixed kernel in multimodal distributions where the size of modes is unequal, and where the degree of separation of modes varies. When these latter conditions exist, they present a serious challenge to the best of fixed kernel density estimators. Capitalizing on the work …

A Comparison Of Estimation Procedures For The Beta Distribution, Huey Yan

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The beta distribution may be used as a stochastic model for continuous proportions in many situations in applied statistics. This thesis was concerned with estimation of the parameters of the beta distribution in three different situations.

Three different estimation procedures-the method of moments, maximum likelihood, and a hybrid of these two methods, which we call the one-step improvement-were compared by computer simulation, for beta data and beta data contaminated by zeros and ones. We also evaluated maximum likelihood estimation in the context of censored data, and Newton's method as a numerical procedure for solving the likelihood equations …

Estimation In A Marked Poisson Error Recapture Model Of Software Reliability, Rajan Gupta

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Nayak's (1988) model for the detection, removal, and recapture of the errors in a computer program is extended to a larger family of models in which the probabilities that the successive programs produce errors are described by the tail probabilities of discrete distribution on the positive integers. Confidence limits are derived for the probability that the final program produces errors. A comparison of the asymptotic variances of parameter estimates given by the error recapture and by the repetitive-run procedure of Nagel, Scholz, and Skrivan (1982) is made to determine which of these procedures efficiently uses the test time.

Parameter Estimation For Generalized Pareto Distribution, Der-Chen Lin

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The generalized Pareto distribution was introduced by Pickands (1975). Three methods of estimating the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution were compared by Hosking and Wallis (1987). The methods are maximum likelihood, method of moments and probability-weighted moments.

An alternate method of estimation for the generalized Pareto distribution, based on least square regression of expected order statistics (REOS), is developed and evaluated in this thesis. A Monte Carlo comparison is made between this method and the estimating methods considered by Hosking and Wallis (1987). This method is shown to be generally superior to the maximum likelihood, method of moments and …

Estimation In Truncated Exponential Family Of Distributions, Laxman M. Hegde

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Estimating the parameters of a truncated distribution is a well known problem in statistical inference. The non-existence of the maximum likelihood estimator (m.l.e.) with positive probability in certain truncated distributions is not well known. To mention a few results in the literature:

(i) Deemer and Votaw 1955 show that the maximum likelihood estimator does not exist in a truncated negative exponential distribution on 0,T , T > 0 known, whenever the sample mean x (GREATERTHEQ) T/2.

(ii) Broeder 1955 shows that the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter of a truncated gamma distribution, with the shape parameter being known, becomes …

Correction Of Bias In Estimating Autocovariance Function, Len-Hong Wu

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The purpose of this thesis was to evaluate a method for reducing the bias of estimation for autocovariance estimators. Two methods are compared, one is the standard method and the other is an adjustment method. The Monte Carlo method is used within comparison.

The bias and the mean squared error of the estimated autocovariance is computed for several time series models and two variations of the adjustment method of estimation. The results indicate some improvement in bias and mean squared error for the new method.

Least Squares Estimation Of The Pareto Type I And Ii Distribution, Ching-Hua Chien

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The estimation of the Pareto distribution can be computationally expensive and the method is badly biased. In this work, an improved Least Squares derivation is used and the estimation will be less biased. Numerical examples and figures are provided so that one may observe the solution more clearly. Furthermore, by varying the different methods of estimation, a comparing of the estimators of the parameters is given. The improved Least Squares derivation is confidently employed for it is economic and efficient.

Parameter Estimation In Nonstationary M/M/S Queueing Models, Pensri Vajanaphanich

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

If either the arrival rate or the service rate in an M/M/S queue exhibit variability over time, then no steady state solution is available for examining the system behavior. The arrival and service rates can be represented through Fourier series approximations. This permits numerical approximation of the system characteristics over time.

An example of an M/M/S representation of the operations of emergency treatment at Logan Regional hospital is presented. It requires numerical integration of the differential equation for L(t), the expected number of customers in the system at time t.

Estimation Of Floods When Runoff Originates From Nonhomogeneous Sources, David Ray Olson

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Extreme value theory is used as a basis for deriving a distribution function for flood frequency analysis when runoff originates from nonhomogeneous sources. A modified least squares technique is used to estimate the parameters of the distribution function for eleven rivers. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed and the distribution function is found to fit the data very well.

The derived distribution function is recommended as a base method for flood frequency analysis for rivers exhibiting nonhomogeneous sources of runoff if further investigation also proves to be positive.

A Discussion Of An Empirical Bayes Multiple Comparison Technique, Donna Baranowski

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper considers the application and comparison of Bayesian and nonBayesian multiple comparison techniques applied to sets of chemical analysis data. Suggestions are also made as to which methods should be used.

Multicollinearity And The Estimation Of Regression Coefficients, John Charles Teed

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The precision of the estimates of the regression coefficients in a regression analysis is affected by multicollinearity. The effect of certain factors on multicollinearity and the estimates was studied. The response variables were the standard error of the regression coefficients and a standarized statistic that measures the deviation of the regression coefficient from the population parameter.

The estimates are not influenced by any one factor in particular, but rather some combination of factors. The larger the sample size, the better the precision of the estimates no matter how "bad" the other factors may be.

The standard error of the regression …

Estimation Of Μy Using The General Regression Model (In Sampling), Michael R. Manieri

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The methods of ratio and regression estimators discussed by Cochran(l977) are given as background materials and extended to the estimation of µy, the population mean of the Y's, using a general regression model.

The propagation of error technique given by Deming(l948) is used as an approximation to find the variance of the estimator µy.

Examples are given for each of the various models. Variances of μy are calculated and compared

A Comparative Analysis Of The Use Of A Markov Chain Versus A Binomial Probability Model In Estimating The Probability Of Consecutive Rainless Days, Jack Wilfred Homeyer

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The Markov chain process for predicting the occurence of a sequence of rainless days, a standard technique, is critically examined in light of the basic underlying assumptions that must be made each time it is used. This is then compared to a simple binomial model wherein an event is defined to be a series of rainless days of desired length. Computer programs to perform the required calculations are then presented and compared as to complexity and operating characteristics. Finally, an example of applying both programs to real data is presented and further comparisons are drawn between the two techniques.

A New Confidence Interval For The Mean Of A Normal Distribution, David Lee Wallace

All Master's Theses

A typical problem in statistical inference is the following: An experimenter is confronted with a density function f(x; ϴ) which describes the underlying population of measurements. The form of f may or may not be known, and ϴ is a parameter (possibly vector-valued) which describes the population. The statistician's job is to estimate or to test hypotheses about the unknown parameter ϴ. In this paper, we shall consider interval estimation of the mean of the normal density function.

On Two Methods Of Unbiased Estimation With Auxiliary Variates, William (Bill) H. Williams

Publications and Research

No abstract provided.