Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Nonoscillatory Solutions Of Higher-Order Fractional Differential Equations, Martin Bohner, Said R. Grace, Irena Jadlovská, Nurten Kılıç

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

This paper deals with the asymptotic behavior of the nonoscillatory solutions of a certain forced fractional differential equations with positive and negative terms, involving the Caputo fractional derivative. The results obtained are new and generalize some known results appearing in the literature. Two examples are also provided to illustrate the results.

Analysis Of Ibnr Liabilities With Interevent Times Depending On Claim Counts, Daniel J. Geiger, Akim Adekpedjou

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

We extend a recently proposed stochastic loss reserving model for liabilities from incurred but not reported (IBNR) micro-level claims. We propose viewing the number of claims from an event as a measure of catastrophic severity. This view covers catastrophes with arbitrarily many classes of magnitude. Our Markovian model allows the time between disasters to depend on the previous event's level of severity. Simultaneously, we let the discount rate vary in the same manner. First, we find the moments of IBNR liabilities in our model. Then, we permit a later time horizon for IBNR claims when considered jointly with incurred and …

Air Pollutant Levels And Asthma Emergency Room Visits In A Highly Populous Us Urban County During 2018-19, Osaremhen Ikhile, Jingjing Yin, Atin Adhikari

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

Objective: Air pollutants are linked to asthma exacerbation. The study purpose was to demonstrate an association between air pollutants levels and asthma emergency room (ER) visit trends in a highly populated US urban county in Georgia during 2018-2019.

Methods: Time series analyses were conducted for the variations in daily numbers of children and adult asthma emergency room visits and changes in daily mean PM_2.5, daily mean PM₁₀ concentrations, daily max 1-hour SO₂ concentrations, daily max 1-hour NO₂ concentrations, daily max 8-hour ozone concentrations, and airborne pollen loads for 2018 to 2019 and potential trends were …

"A Conceptual Framework For Measuring Criminal Justice Success In Responding To Violence Against Women Act (Vawa) Crimes: Final Results And Recommendations", Sarah Goan, Kris Lugo-Graulich, Susy Hawes, Hannah Brintlinger Mph, Susan Smith Howley

Publications

The Office on Violence Against Women (OVW), established under the Violence Against Women Act of 1994, leads national efforts to prevent and respond to domestic violence, dating violence, sexual assault, and stalking through 19 grant programs that strengthen victim services and enhance offender accountability. These programs include four formula grants distributed to states and fifteen discretionary programs for which OVW defines eligibility, goals, and deliverables. Grantees submit biannual progress reports containing quantitative and qualitative data that are later compiled into biennial Reports to Congress. While these reports effectively capture outputs such as numbers of victims served, trainings conducted, and partnerships …

Evaluating A Statistical-Based Assessment Tool For Stratifying Risk Among U.S. Air Force Organizations, Tiffany A. Low

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Inspection System is a proponent of utilizing a risk-based sampling strategy (RBSS) for conducting inspections from major command levels down to the unit level. The strategy identifies areas deemed most important or risky by commanders and prioritizes them accordingly for an independent assessment by the Inspector General. While Air Force regulation specifies the need to use a RBSS for inspection, the implementation process is delegated to individual commands and, subsequently, wings. The 23rd Wing, the sponsor for this research, directed us to analyze a RBSS tool highlighted as an example from which to adopt for those units …

A Global Ecological Signal Of Extinction Risk In Terrestrial Vertebrates, M. J. Munstermann, N. A. Heim, D. J. Mccauley, J. L. Payne, N. S. Upham, Steve C. Wang

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Works

To determine the distribution and causes of extinction threat across functional groups of terrestrial vertebrates, we assembled an ecological trait data set for 18,016 species of terrestrial vertebrates and utilized phylogenetic comparative methods to test which categories of habitat association, mode of locomotion, and feeding mode best predicted extinction risk. We also examined the individual categories of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List extinction drivers (e.g., agriculture and logging) threatening each species and determined the greatest threats for each of the four terrestrial vertebrate groups. We then quantified the sum of extinction drivers threatening each species to …

(R1503) Numerical Ultimate Survival Probabilities In An Insurance Portfolio Compounded By Risky Investments, Juma Kasozi

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

Probability of ultimate survival is one of the central problems in insurance because it is a management tool that may be used to check on the solvency levels of the insurer. In this article, we numerically compute this probability for an insurer whose portfolio is compounded by investments arising from a risky asset. The uncertainty in the celebrated Cramér-Lundberg model is provided by a standard Brownian motion that is independent of the standard Brownian motion in the model for the risky asset. We apply an order four Block-by-block method in conjunction with the Simpson rule to solve the resulting Volterra …

(R1510) A Special Case Of Rodriguez-Lallena And Ubeda-Flores Copula Based On Ruschendorf Method, Marvin G. Pizon, Rolando N. Paluga

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

Measure of dependence is a particular way of looking at the association between random variables, and one way to capture stochastic dependence is through the use of copula. In this study, a Rushendorf Method was applied to a bivariate function to obtain a copula through the use of a special case of Rodriguez-Lallena and Ubeda-Flores (RLUF) copula. Properties of the RLUF copula such as the density, measures of dependence, and lower and upper tail dependence were studied. In particular, measures of dependence such as Spearman’s rho, Kendall’s tau and Blomqvist’s beta of RLUF copula are given. Moreover, the Root-Mean-Square Error …

Joint Control Of Manufacturing And Onsite Microgrid System Via Novel Neural-Network Integrated Reinforcement Learning Algorithms, Jiaojiao Yang, Zeyi Sun, Wenqing Hu, Louis Steinmeister

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Microgrid is a promising technology of distributed energy supply system, which consists of storage devices, generation capacities including renewable sources, and controllable loads. It has been widely investigated and applied for residential and commercial end-use customers as well as critical facilities. In this paper, we propose a joint state-based dynamic control model on microgrids and manufacturing systems where optimal controls for both sides are implemented to coordinate the energy demand and supply so that the overall production cost can be minimized considering the constraint of production target. Markov Decision Process (MDP) is used to formulate the decision-making procedure. The main …

Why, New York City? Gauging The Quality Of Life Through The Thoughts Of Tweeters, Sheryl Williams

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

As a resource for social data, Twitter’s platform has been used to measure the quality of life through sentiment analysis. This capstone project explores another methodological technique—querying Twitter data around specific keyword terms to determine dominant topics, word patterns, and sentiment leanings in a geographical area. Focusing on New York City and Los Angeles for comparative analysis, the keyword term “why” will be used to build a Python analysis around topic modeling and sentiment analysis. Using this approach, the analysis reveals social and cultural differences, the overall sentiment of tweets, and subjects of interest to tweeters.

GitHub Repository for all …

Unrestricted Factor Analysis: A Powerful Alternative To Confirmatory Factor Analysis, Jan-Benedict E.M. Steenkamp, Alberto Maydeu-Olivares

Faculty Publications

The gold standard for modeling multiple indicator measurement data is confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), which has many statistical advantages over traditional exploratory factor analysis (EFA). In most CFA applications, items are assumed to be pure indicators of the construct they intend to measure. However, despite our best efforts, this is often not the case. Cross-loadings incorrectly set to zero can only be expressed through the correlations between the factors, leading to biased factor correlations and to biased structural (regression) parameter estimates. This article introduces a third approach, which has emerged in the psychometric literature, viz., unrestricted factor analysis (UFA). UFA …

Are Pregnant Women With Disability Prescribed Opioids More And At Higher Dosages Than Those Without Disability?: A Retrospective Cohort Study Of South Carolina Medicaid Beneficiaries, Chelsea L. Richard Phd, Msph, Bryan L. Love Pharm.D., Nansi Boghossian, James Hardin Ph.D., Suzanne Mcdermott

Faculty Publications

Background: Nationally, individuals with disability have higher rates of opioid use and misuse and are prescribed higher doses than those without disability. Opioid prescriptions during pregnancy are associated with adverse birth outcomes. Objective: To understand the difference in opioid prescribing during pregnancy over time by disability status among Medicaid beneficiaries who gave birth from 2008 to 2017 in South Carolina. Methods: Data from hospital discharges, vital records, and pharmacy were linked to determine the mother's disability status, opioid prescriptions filled during pregnancy, and other maternal characteristics. Disability status was characterized into physical disability, inflammatory conditions, intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD), …

Statistical Modeling Of Longitudinal Medical Cost Data, Shikun Wang

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

Projecting the future cancer care cost is critical in health economics research and policy making. An indispensable step is to estimate cost trajectories from an incident cohort of cancer patients using longitudinal medical cost data, accounting for terminal events such as death, and right censoring due to loss of follow-up. Since the cost of cancer care and survival are correlated, a scientifically meaningful quantity for inference in this context is the mean cost trajectory conditional on survival. Many standard approaches for longitudinal and survival analysis are not valid for the problem. The research for my Ph.D. dissertation consists of three …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …

Mixture Of Functional Graphical Models, Qihai Liu

Dissertations

With the development of data collection technologies that use powerful monitoring devices and computational tools, many scientific fields are now obtaining more detailed and more complicatedly structured data, e.g., functional data. This leads to increasing challenges of extracting information from the large complex data. Making use of these data to gain insight into complex phenomena requires characterizing the relationships among a large number of functional variables. Functional data analysis (FDA) is a rapidly developing area of statistics for data which can be naturally viewed as a smooth curve or function. It is a method that changes the frame of data …

Data-Driven Analysis Of Drug And Substance Abuse Rates Across The Varying Regions In The United States Of America, Reem Saleh

University Honors Theses

Drugs and substance abuse is one of the leading causes of death for adolescents in the United States. The consequences of using these drugs are profound and can cause both damage to one's physical and psychological health. The rates of drug abuse in the United States continue to increase over the years. This paper analyzes the trends in rates of drug abuse in the four regions in the United States. It looks at the rates in cocaine, cigarettes, marijuana, and tobacco. A preliminary analysis was done to look at the trend in rates followed by an ARIMA time series model …

Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (Bph): A Comprehensive Analysis Of The Malaise And Summarizing Possible Management Options Through Phytotherapeutic Agents, Shan Sasidharan, Kumarapillai Parameswaran Srinivasakumar, Sandeep Poddar, Amiya Bhaumik, Sreemoy Kanti Das, Hareendran Nair J

Kesmas

Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is a severe illness affecting middle-aged and geriatric male patients. This disease normally occurs at the age of 40 or above and is also associated with sexual dysfunction. Alpha-blockers and 5α-reductase inhibitors are the preferred drugs practiced to treat BPH. However, invasive surgical therapy remains the gold standard for managing the condition in the case of refractory and intricate BPH conditions. Due to the fear of sexual dysfunction and the detrimental influence on their quality of life, most patients seek to avoid synthetic drugs and surgery. For this reason, several patients turn to phytotherapy and other …

Treatment Adherence And Incidence Of Coronary Heart Disease In Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients, Ahmad Sahlan Baniu, Rani Sauriasari, Woro Riyadina, Pradana Soewondo

Kesmas

Previous studies showed that uncontrolled blood sugar and long-term use of several types of antidiabetic could increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). This study aimed to compare the incidence of CHD in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients showing treatment adherence and non-adherence behavior over four years. This was a retrospective cohort study with data sets obtained from the Bogor Cohort Study of Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors. All study subjects were not diagnosed with CHD at the beginning of the study. The sample was divided into two groups; one had adhered to treatment from health centers and followed …

Local Wisdom Enriching Complementary Feeding Practices During Disaster Situations In Indonesia, Astuti Astuti, Happy Hayati, Fajar Tri Waluyanti, Dessie Wanda

Kesmas

This study aimed to analyze complementary food fulfillment during disaster situations in Indonesia since it frequently experiences natural disasters and young children face unique challenges related to their feeding needs in disaster situations. This qualitative case study based on the Mount Merapi eruption and Sumedang landslide in 2021 collected data using observations, forum group discussions, and in-depth interviews; then, a thematic analysis was conducted. This study involved 17 participants, including Non-governmental Organizations (NGO) activists, health workers, residents involved in making complementary foods, and primary caregivers of children aged 6–24 months. This study found that there were five themes generated from …

Muscle Dysmorphia In Fitness Center Members: Its Affecting Factors And Impacts, Deny Yudi Fitranti, Nurmasari Widyastuti, Etika Ratna Noer, Ayu Rahadiyanti, Fillah Fithra Dieny, Rachma Purwanti, Dewi Kurnia Sandi, Widya Destikasari

Kesmas

Muscle dysmorphia (MD) has several impacts on the decline in social and health functions. This study aimed to determine the correlation between MD with eating behaviors and exercise loading among fitness center members and analyze the factors affecting it. This study used a cross-sectional design with 100 subjects chosen by a consecutive sampling method at three fitness centers in Semarang City. The subjects were all male members of an active fitness center between 17 and 45 years. The data of MD were obtained using the Drive Muscular Scale (DMS), while eating behavior data were obtained using the Eating Attitude Test-40 …

Determinants Of The Coexistence Dual Form Of Malnutrition In Pairs Of Mother And Child Aged 6 – 59 Months In Bogor District 2019, Maulina Dwi Krismanita, Triyanti Triyanti, Ahmad Syafiq, Trini Sudiarti

Kesmas

The dual form of malnutrition (DFM) is defined as multiple nutritional problems in the same household and time. This study aimed to determine the related factor to DFM incidence in pairs of mothers and children aged 6–59 months in Bogor District in 2019. This cross-sectional study used secondary data on the Nutrition and Health of Babakan Madang Subdistrict Toddlers in 2019 and Nutrition Intake and Stunting of Children Under-Five in Bogor District, West Java Province, involving a total sample of 274 households. The dependent variable in this study was DFM, while the independent variables were maternal age during pregnancy, maternal …

The Influence Of Intrapersonal Constraints On Travel Intention Of People At High Risk From Covid-19 During The New Normal, Dyah Widiyastuti, Ikasari Kusuma Wardhani

Kesmas

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism constraints have created a challenge for inclusive tourism, especially for older people and people with comorbidities. This study examined intrapersonal constraints’ effect on the travel intentions of people facing fewer opportunities for tourism due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which could disrupt their well-being fulfillment. The data were collected through an online survey of Jakarta citizens aged 46 years and older from the end of June to September 2021, and a total of 337 responses were accumulated. This study applied partial least square structural equation modeling to test the moderating effect of intrapersonal constraints toward …

Zoom Fatigue During The Covid-19 Pandemic: Is It Real?, Putri Winda Lestari, Adhila Fayasari

Kesmas

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused drastic changes to social lives moreover the activities done outside, such as work and school. The policy of large-scale social restrictions (LSRR)/Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB), which makes people stay at home, also plays an important role in changing the face-to-face activity online. As a solution to the major change, people use video conferencing to keep in touch and still feel like doing "offline" activities. The increasing use of video conferencing has raised concerns about the resulting fatigue, termed "Zoom fatigue." This study aimed to describe Zoom fatigue during the COVID-19 pandemic …

Diabetes Mellitus And Mortality Among Covid-19 Patients In Jakarta, March-August 2020, Endang Widuri Wulandari, Sudarto Rotnoatmodjo, Ngabila Salama

Kesmas

Diabetes mellitus (DM) comorbidity is one of the risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality. This study aimed to determine the association of comorbid DM and mortality among COVID-19 confirmed cases in DKI Jakarta Province, controlled with confounding variables from March to August 2020. The study design was a retrospective cohort using cox proportional hazard regression, with a total sample of 1,480. The data consisted of 740 COVID-19 cases with and 740 without comorbid DM. The inclusion criteria were COVID-19 confirmed cases with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) laboratory testing reported to the DKI Jakarta Provincial Department of Health, and …

Knowledge, Attitudes, And Covid-19 Prevention Practices Of Healthcare Workers In Indonesia: A Mobile-Based Cross-Sectional Survey, Besral Besral, Zulvi Wiyanti, Dion Zein Nurizin, Milla Herdayati, R Sutiawan, Martya Rahmaniati, Popy Yuniar

Kesmas

Knowledge of disease can affect attitudes and prevention practices, and wrong attitudes and practices can directly increase the risk of disease infection. This study aimed to describe the knowledge, attitudes, and COVID-19 prevention practice of healthcare workers in Indonesia and factors associated with prevention practices. A mobile-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in August 2020 with 254 healthcare workers in Indonesia. The self-administered questionnaire consisted of four parts: 1) sociodemographic information, 2) knowledge of COVID-19, 3) attitudes and anxiety toward COVID-19, and 4) COVID-19 prevention practices. The results indicated that healthcare workers in Indonesia had excellent knowledge and positive attitudes about …

Infarct Diameter For Predicting Cognitive Dysfunction In Ischemic Stroke Survivors In West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, Herpan Syafii Harahap, Setyawati Asih Putri, Yanna Indrayana, Hasan Amin, Fransisca Ika Mahardika

Kesmas

Cognitive dysfunction is an important consequence of ischemic stroke, which can progress in the first few years and is primarily determined by clinical factors. This study aimed to investigate the clinical determinants of cognitive dysfunction in stroke survivors in West Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. This cross-sectional study assessed 255 ischemic stroke survivors with a mean age of 57.1±9.3 years old and 29–79 years old, recruited consecutively in three main hospitals in West Nusa Tenggara Province between March 2019 and October 2021. Categorical data collected included age, sex, education level, clinical determinants of ischemic stroke, and cognitive status of the patients. …

Interprofessional Collaborative Practice And Health Workers Retention At Remote Primary Health Care: Case Study From Nusantara Sehat Team-Based Program, Prastuti Soewondo, Retno Pujisubekti, Ade Widyati Prastyani, Nurul Maretia Rahmayanti

Kesmas

The Nusantara Sehat Team (NST), established in 2015 and consist of multi-professional health workers, implemented to provide comprehensive services at remote primary health cares (PHCs) for two years. This study aimed to explore how the NST leverages the Interprofessional Collaboration (IPC) and its impact on the future career prospects of health workers. Using a qualitative approach, the information was gathered from 48 informants drawn from the current 30 NST recruits and 18 alumni through semi-structured interviews. Of these 48, 20 were clinical practitioners, while the rest were non-clinical health workers. The findings revealed several challenges in promoting collaborative practice, including …