Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Block Designs, Lucien Poulin, Daniela Genova

Showcase of Osprey Advancements in Research and Scholarship (SOARS)

Block designs are a type of combinatorial structures that can be used to model many different types of problems ranging from experimental design to computer software testing. They can be used to construct schemes that ensure complete optimization and efficiency of the given experiment. We focus mainly on Steiner and Kirkman triple systems, as well as, on different ways for constructing block designs. Well known results in combinatorics such as Fisher’s inequality and Kirkman’s schoolgirl problem are also discussed.

Insights From The Influx Of Prescription Painkillers In Northeast Florida: A Retrospective Analysis, Joseph Free, Michelle Dedeo

Showcase of Osprey Advancements in Research and Scholarship (SOARS)

The opioid epidemic has had, and will have, long-lasting ramifications in the United States. To better understand its impact in the Northeast Florida, this research seeks to identify relationships between hydro- and oxycodone pill concentration at the county and zip code levels and socio-economic factors such as average adjusted gross income and opioid related mortality. This project utilizes time series, regression, and GIS methods to examine local opioid saturation and has led to the development of an interactive Tableau dashboard which allows users to view opioid saturation at various levels of granularity. This analysis is made possible by longitudinal data …

The Expanded View Of Individualism And Collectivism: One, Two, Or Four Dimensions?, Jennifer L. Priestley, Kamal Fatehi, Gita Taasoobshirazi

Faculty Articles

Recent research to analyze and discuss cultural differences has employed a combination of five major dimensions of individualism–collectivism, power distance, uncertainty avoidance, femininity– masculinity (gender role differentiation), and long-term orientation. Among these dimensions, individualism–collectivism has received the most attention. Chronologically, this cultural attribute has been regarded as one, then two, and more recently, four dimensions of horizontal and vertical individualism and collectivism. However, research on this issue has not been conclusive and some have argued against this expansion. The current study attempts to explain and clarify this discussion by using a shortened version of the scale developed by Singelis et …

A Glossary On Building Longitudinal, Population-Based Data Linkages To Explore Children’S Developmental Trajectories, Jennifer E. V. Lloyd, Jacqui Boonstra, Lisa Chen, Barry Forer, Ruth Hershler, Constance Milbrath, Brenda T. Poon, Neda Razaz, Pippa Rowcliffe, Kimberly Schonert-Reichl

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Population-based, person-specific, longitudinal child and youth health and developmental data linkages involve connecting combinations of specially-collected data and administrative data for longitudinal population research purposes. This glossary provides definitions of key terms and concepts related to their theoretical basis, research infrastructure, research methodology, statistical analysis, and knowledge translation.

Robust Confidence Intervals For The Population Mean Alternatives To The Student-T Confidence Interval, Moustafa Omar Ahmed Abu-Shawiesh, Aamir Saghir

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In this paper, three robust confidence intervals are proposed as alternatives to the Student‑t confidence interval. The performance of these intervals was compared through a simulation study shows that Q_n-t confidence interval performs the best and it is as good as Student’s‑t confidence interval. Real-life data was used for illustration and performing a comparison that support the findings obtained from the simulation study.

Using Spss To Analyze Complex Survey Data: A Primer, Danjie Zou, Jennifer E. V. Lloyd, Jennifer L. Baumbusch

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

An introduction to using SPSS to analyze complex survey data is given. Key features of complex survey design are described briefly, including stratification, clustering, multiple stages, and weights. Then, annotated SPSS syntax for complex survey data analysis is presented to demonstrate the step-by-step process using real complex samples data.

Dynamic Control Of Probabilistic Simple Temporal Networks, James C. Boerkoel Jr., Michael Gao, Lindsay Popowski

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

The controllability of a temporal network is defined as an agent’s ability to navigate around the uncertainty in its schedule and is well-studied for certain networks of temporal constraints. However, many interesting real-world problems can be better represented as Probabilistic Simple Temporal Networks (PSTNs) in which the uncertain durations are represented using potentially-unbounded probability density functions. This can make it inherently impossible to control for all eventualities. In this paper, we propose two new dynamic controllability algorithms that attempt to maximize the likelihood of successfully executing a schedule within a PSTN. The first approach, which we call MIN-LOSS DC, finds …

Limited Early Warnings And Public Attention To Coronavirus Disease 2019 In China, January–February, 2020: A Longitudinal Cohort Of Randomly Sampled Weibo Users, Yuner Zhu, King-Wa Fu, Karen A. Grépin, Hai Liang, Isaac Fung

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

Objective:

Awareness and attentiveness have implications for the acceptance and adoption of disease prevention and control measures. Social media posts provide a record of the public’s attention to an outbreak. To measure the attention of Chinese netizens to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a pre-established nationally representative cohort of Weibo users was searched for COVID-19-related key words in their posts.

Methods:

COVID-19-related posts (N = 1101) were retrieved from a longitudinal cohort of 52 268 randomly sampled Weibo accounts (December 31, 2019–February 12, 2020).

Results:

Attention to COVID-19 was limited prior to China openly acknowledging human-to-human transmission on …

Survival Mediation Analysis With The Death-Truncated Mediator: The Completeness Of The Survival Mediation Parameter, An-Shun Tai, Chun-An Tsai, Sheng-Hsuan Lin

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In medical research, the development of mediation analysis with a survival outcome has facilitated investigation into causal mechanisms. However, studies have not discussed the death-truncation problem for mediators, the problem being that conventional mediation parameters cannot be well-defined in the presence of a truncated mediator. In the present study, we systematically defined the completeness of causal effects to uncover the gap, in conventional causal definitions, between the survival and nonsurvival settings. We proposed three approaches to redefining the natural direct and indirect effects, which are generalized forms of the conventional causal effects for survival outcomes. Furthermore, we developed three statistical …

D-Vine Copula Model For Dependent Binary Data, Huihui Lin, N. Rao Chaganty

College of Sciences Posters

High-dimensional dependent binary data are prevalent in a wide range of scientific disciplines. A popular method for analyzing such data is the Multivariate Probit (MP) model. But the MP model sometimes fails even within a feasible range of binary correlations, because the underlying correlation matrix of the latent variables may not be positive definite. In this research, we proposed pair copula models, assuming the dependence between the binary variables is first order autoregressive (AR(1))or equicorrelated structure. Also, when Archimediean copula is used, most paper converted Kendall Tau to corresponding copula parameter, there is no explicit function of Pearson’s correlation coefficient …

On The Authentic Notion, Relevance, And Solution Of The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox In The Zettabyte Era, Miodrag M. Lovric

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox is the most quoted divergence between the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference. It is embedded in the very foundations of statistics and divides frequentist and Bayesian inference in an irreconcilable way. This paradox is the Gordian Knot of statistical inference and Data Science in the Zettabyte Era. If statistical science is ready for revolution confronted by the challenges of massive data sets analysis, the first step is to finally solve this anomaly. For more than sixty years, the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox has been under active discussion and debate. Many solutions have been proposed, none entirely satisfactory. …

Exact Distribution Of Linkage Disequilibrium In The Presence Of Mutation, Selection, Or Minor Allele Frequency Filtering, Jiayi Qu, Stephen D. Kachman, Dorian Garrick, Rohan L. Fernando, Hao Cheng

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Linkage disequilibrium (LD), often expressed in terms of the squared correlation (r2) between allelic values at two loci, is an important concept in many branches of genetics and genomics. Genetic drift and recombination have opposite effects on LD, and thus r2 will keep changing until the effects of these two forces are counterbalanced. Several approximations have been used to determine the expected value of r2 at equilibrium in the presence or absence of mutation. In this paper, we propose a probability-based approach to compute the exact distribution of allele frequencies at two loci in a finite population at any generation …

Interdependence Across Foreign Exchange Rate Markets- A Mixed Copula Approach, Richard Adjei-Boateng

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

The purpose of this thesis is to study the dependence structure of exchange rate pairs using a mixture of copula as opposed to a single copula approach. Mixed copula models have the ability to generate dependence structures that do not belong to existing copula families. The flexibility in choosing component copulas in this mixture model aids the construction of a system that is simultaneously parsimonious and flexible enough to generate most dependence patterns in exchange rate data. Furthermore, the method of mixture copulas facilitates the separation of both the structure and degree of dependence, concepts that are respectively embodied in …

A Monte Carlo Analysis Of Standard Error-Based Methods For Computing Confidence Intervals, Elayna Wichert

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

The objective of this study is to empirically test existing techniques to calculate the likely range of values for a Classical Test Theory true score given an observed score. The traditional method for forming these confidence intervals has used the standard error of measurement (SEM) as the basis for this confidence interval. An alternate equation, the standard error of estimate (SEE), has been recommended in place of the SEM for this purpose, yet it remains overlooked in the field of psychometrics. It is important that the correct equation be used in various applications in personnel psychology. Monte Carlo analyses were …

Book Genre Classification By Its Cover Using A Multi-View Learning Approach, Chandra Shakhar Kundu

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

An interesting topic in the visual analysis is to determine the genre of a book by its cover. The book cover is the very first communication to the reader which shapes the reader’s expectation about the type of the book. Each book cover is carefully designed by the cover designers and typographers to convey the visual representation of its content. In this study, we explore several different deep learning approaches for predicting the genre from the cover image alone, such as MobileNet V1, MobileNet V2, ResNet50, Inception V2. Moreover, we add an extra modality by extracting text from the cover …

Concordance Between Health Administrative Data And Survey-Derived Diagnoses For Mood And Anxiety Disorders, J. Edwards, A. Thind, S. Stranges, M. Chiu, Kelly K. Anderson

Epidemiology and Biostatistics Publications

Objective: To assess whether estimates of survey structured interview diagnoses of mood and anxiety disorders were concordant with diagnoses of these disorders obtained from health administrative data.

Methods: All Ontario respondents to the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health (CCHS-MH) were linked to health administrative databases at ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences). Survey structured interview diagnoses were compared with health administrative data diagnoses obtained using a standardized algorithm. We used modified Poisson regression analyses to assess whether socio-demographic factors were associated with concordance between the two measures.

Results: Of the 4157 Ontarians included in our …

Streamlining Time Spent In Alternative Developmental Mathematics Pathways: Increasing Access To College-Level Mathematics Courses By Altering Placement Procedures, Marla A. Sole

Publications and Research

Developmental mathematics, which is designed to prepare students for college-level mathematics courses, can be a barrier to students’ success. In the United States, the majority of students placed into developmental mathematics courses fail to complete the developmental sequence. Alternative mathematics pathways offer some benefits when integrated with “just-in- time support” or expedited instruction on specific prerequisite concepts needed solely for the current lesson. This study compares two statistics courses taught at a public community college: a complete course taught in one semester and a two-semester version with just-in-time developmental content integrated into the course. The study found that students placed …

The Influence Of Peer And Parental Norms On First-Generation College Students’ Binge Drinking Trajectories, Graham T. Diguiseppi, Jordan P. Davis, Matthew K. Meisel, Melissa A. Clark, Mya L. Roberson, Miles Q. Ott, Nancy P. Barnett

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

Introduction: First-generation college students are those whose parents have not completed a four-year college degree. The current study addressed the lack of research on first-generation college students’ alcohol use by comparing the binge drinking trajectories of first-generation and continuing-generation students over their first three semesters. The dynamic influence of peer and parental social norms on students’ binge drinking frequencies were also examined. Methods: 1342 college students (n = 225 first-generation) at one private University completed online surveys. Group differences were examined at Time 1, and latent growth-curve models tested the association between first-generation status and social norms (peer descriptive, peer …

Dice Questions Answered, Warren Campbell, William P. Dolan

SEAS Faculty Publications

Superstitious discussion of fair and unfair dice has pervaded the tabletop gaming industry since its inception. Many of these are not based on any quantitative data or studies. Consequently, misconceptions have been spread widely. One dice float test video on Youtube currently has 925,000 views (Fisher, 2015a). To combat the flood of misconceptions we investigated the following questions: 1) Are dice cursed? 2) Are D20s (20-sided dice) less fair than D6s (6-sided dice)? 3) Do float tests tell anything about the fairness of dice? 4) Are some dice systems inherently fairer than others? 5) Are density differences or dimensions more …

Circada: Shiny Apps For Exploration Of Experimental And Synthetic Circadian Time Series With An Educational Emphasis, Lisa Cenek, Liubou Klindziuk, Cindy Lopez, Eleanor Mccartney, Blanca Martin Burgos, Selma Tir, Mary E. Harrington, Tanya L. Leise

Psychology: Faculty Publications

Circadian rhythms are daily oscillations in physiology and behavior that can be assessed by recording body temperature, locomotor activity, or bioluminescent reporters, among other measures. These different types of data can vary greatly in waveform, noise characteristics, typical sampling rate, and length of recording. We developed 2 Shiny apps for exploration of these data, enabling visualization and analysis of circadian parameters such as period and phase. Methods include the discrete wavelet transform, sine fitting, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, autocorrelation, and maximum entropy spectral analysis, giving a sense of how well each method works on each type of data. The apps also …

Conflicts In Bayesian Statistics Between Inference Based On Credible Intervals And Bayes Factors, Miodrag M. Lovric

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In frequentist statistics, point-null hypothesis testing based on significance tests and confidence intervals are harmonious procedures and lead to the same conclusion. This is not the case in the domain of the Bayesian framework. An inference made about the point-null hypothesis using Bayes factor may lead to an opposite conclusion if it is based on the Bayesian credible interval. Bayesian suggestions to test point-nulls using credible intervals are misleading and should be dismissed. A null hypothesized value may be outside a credible interval but supported by Bayes factor (a Type I conflict), or contrariwise, the null value may be inside …

Investigating Major League Baseball Pitchers And Quality Of Contact Through Cluster Analysis, Charlie Marcou

Honors Projects

This paper investigates the quality of contact that a pitcher allows. Not much is currently known about quality of contact, but if factors determining quality of contact could be determined it could assist teams in identifying and developing pitching talent. There are many problems that come with investigating the control pitchers have over contact allowed, but one area to investigate is whether quality of contact is a repeatable skill. Furthermore, if it is a repeatable skill, then it is important to investigate what kind of benefit controlling contact allowed brings a pitcher. Along with this, groundball and flyball tendencies, and …

Using Alteryx Designer In Audit, Nolan Asiala

Honors Projects

My senior project was built around data analysis and how it relates to the auditing profession. Initially, I was planning on attending a data analytics competition, but that was canceled due to the events of COVID-19. This project utilized the Alteryx Designer program to demonstrate how it can be used during an audit engagement. By creating a workflow in Alteryx Designer, a report from a client can be cleaned and reformatted into a working dataset. My project includes two Excel files, a Microsoft Word document that serves as a brief introduction to the program, and a video describing the workflow …

How Data Is Changing The World Of Healthcare, Cameron Marous

Honors Capstone Enhancement Presentations

No abstract provided.

Recruitment Strategies For Cognitively Impaired Older Adults In Assisted Living Communities, Paige Greer, Elizabeth Hill, Katelyn Ware

Student Scholars Day Posters

It is well documented that recruiting persons with dementia for research in long term care settings is challenging (Lam, et. al. 2018). The purpose of this study is to explore recruitment techniques suggested by the National Institute on Aging (2018), including the use of brochures, community contact introductions (CCI), presentations, event tables, 1:1 interactions and activity events. We examined the success of each method of recruitment in two recruitment waves based on the number recruited in relation to the number of hours spent on that recruitment method. Of the 119 people that were screened, 47% were enrolled in the study. …

Structure-Activity Relationship Of Novel Diphenyl Ureas Targeting Mycobacterium, Piper Burghduf

Student Scholars Day Posters

In 2017, the World Health Organization reported that 10 million people were infected with tuberculosis, 1.6 million of whom died. Tuberculosis is caused by a bacterium called Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which primarily infects an individual’s lungs. Unfortunately, failure to adhere to the long and arduous drug regimen has contributed to the emergence of antibiotic-resistant strains of M. tuberculosis. Therefore, the need for novel antibiotics is imperative to saving millions of lives. Our lab has recently developed a family of diphenyl ureas that exhibited increased antimicrobial activity toward Mycobacterium. Reported herein is the continuation of our previous research involving the synthesis of …

Boom Or Bust: Examining The Relationship Between High School Recruiting Rankings And The Nfl Draft, Nicholas E. Tice

Senior Theses

The goal of this thesis is to model the probability of a high school football player’s chance of being drafted based on information taken from their recruiting profile. The response variable is binary and defined as drafted (1) or undrafted (0). The independent variables were collected by scraping data from the recruiting websites including height, weight, position, hometown, recruiting grade and other socioeconomic factors based on the player’s high school. 247Sports and ESPN were the two recruiting services used and compared in this study. Because of the binary nature of the dependent variable, logistic regression and decision trees were chosen …

Group Testing Identification: Objective Functions, Implementation, And Multiplex Assays, Brianna D. Hitt

Department of Statistics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Group testing is the process of combining items into groups to test for a binary characteristic. One of its most widely used applications is infectious disease testing. In this context, specimens (e.g., blood, urine) are amalgamated into groups and tested. For groups that test positive, there are many algorithmic retesting procedures available to identify positive individuals. The appeal of group testing is that the overall number of tests needed is significantly less than for individual testing when disease prevalence is small and an appropriate algorithm is chosen. Group testing has a number of applications beyond infectious disease testing, such as …

Alarm Forecasting In Natural Gas Pipelines, Colin Quinn

Master's Theses (2009 -)

This thesis examines alarm forecasting methods for a natural gas production pipeline to assure the efficient transportation of high-quality natural gas. Natural gas production companies use pipelines to transport natural gas from the extraction well to a distribution point. Forecasting natural gas pipeline pressure alarms helps control room operators maintain a functioning pipeline and avoid costly down time. As gas enters the pipeline and travels to the distribution point, it is expected that the gas meets certain specifications set in place by either state law or the customer receiving the gas. If the gas meets these standards and is accepted …

Using Zero-Inflated Poisson Model And Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model On Dental Services Of Wisconsin, 2014 Data, Ke Xu

Master's Theses (2009 -)

Professional dental care to ensure optimum oral health of public plays an important role in the public health system. Facing the truth that there has been decline in dental care utilization for decade in 20th century, more and more attention has been paid to the oral health of children from this century. Children from age 0 to 21 years old experience rapid physical and oral development. Investigating the utilization of dental service for these children will provide useful information for the future study of the insurance system. In this thesis, two regression methods will be studied, the Zero-Inflated Poisson model …