Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Developing A Tourism Opportunity Index Regarding The Prospective Of Overtourism In Nepal, Susan Phuyal

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

This research explores Nepal's overtourism scenario based on the capacity of a locality to manage sustainable tourism practices. Environmental degradation, local infrastructure degradation, negative tourist experience and local resident responses regarding visitors are the four main variables used in this study to analyze overtourism. In order to analyze the case study of overtourism, we select the three top touristic cities of Nepal, Kathmandu, Pokhara, and Chitwan based on the number of annual visitors. Nepal's case analysis of overtourism conditions reviews the overall threat of over-tourism and establishes a metric by which tourism can be viewed as potentially detrimental to sustainability. …

Survival Analysis: An Exact Method For Rare Events, Kristina Reutzel

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Conventional asymptotic methods for survival analysis work well when sample sizes are at least moderately sufficient. When dealing with small sample sizes or rare events, the results from these methods have the potential to be inaccurate or misleading. To handle such data, an exact method is proposed and compared against two other methods: 1) the Cox proportional hazards model and 2) stratified logistic regression for discrete survival analysis data.

Statistics Of Branched Populations Split Into Different Types, Thierry E. Huillet

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

Some population is made of n individuals that can be of P possible species (or types) at equilibrium. How are individuals scattered among types? We study two random scenarios of such species abundance distributions. In the first one, each species grows from independent founders according to a Galton-Watson branching process. When the number of founders P is either fixed or random (either Poisson or geometrically-distributed), a question raised is: given a population of n individuals as a whole, how does it split into the species types? This model is one pertaining to forests of Galton-Watson trees. A second scenario that …

Nonparametric M-Regression With Scale Parameter For Functional Dependent Data, Mebsout Mokhtaria, Attouch M. Kadi, Fetitah Omar

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this paper, we study the equivariant nonparametric robust regression estimation relationship between a functional dependent random covariable and a scalar response. We consider a new robust regression estimator when the scale parameter is unknown. The consistency result of the proposed estimator is studied, namely the uniform almost complete convergence (with rate). Thus, suitable topological considerations are needed, implying changes in the convergence rates, which are quantified by entropy considerations. The benefits of considering robust estimators are illustrated on two real data sets where the robust fit reveals the presence of influential outliers.

Nonparametric Estimation Of Trend Function For Stochastic Differential Equations Driven By A Weighted Fractional Brownian Motion, Abdelmalik Keddi, Fethi Madani, Amina A. Bouchentouf

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this paper, we consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of trend function for stochastic differential equations driven by a weighted fractional Brownian motion (weighted-fBm). Under some general conditions, the consistent uniform, the rate of convergence as well as the asymptotic normality of our estimator are established. In addition, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the validity of the considered estimator.

Impatient Customers In An Markovian Queue With Bernoulli Schedule Working Vacation Interruption And Setup Time, P. Manoharan, T. Jeeva

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this paper, using probability generating function method, Impatient customers in an Markovian queue with Bernoulli schedule working vacation interruption and setup time is discussed. Customers impatience is due to the servers vacation. During the working vacation period, if there are customers in the queue, the vacation can be interrupted at a service completion instant and the server begins a regular service period with probability (1 - b) or continues the vacation with probability b. We obtain the probability generating functions of the stationary state probabilities, performance measures, sojourn time of a customer and stochastic decomposition of the queue length, …

On A Multiserver Queueing System With Customers’ Impatience Until The End Of Service Under Single And Multiple Vacation Policies, Mokhtar Kadi, Amina A. Bouchentouf, Lahcene Yahiaoui

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

This paper deals with a multiserver queueing system with Bernoulli feedback and impatient customers (balking and reneging) under synchronous multiple and single vacation policies. Reneged customers may be retained in the system. Using probability generating functions (PGFs) technique, we formally obtain the steady-state solution of the proposed queueing system. Further, important performance measures and cost model are derived. Finally, numerical examples are presented.

The Odd Inverse Rayleigh Family Of Distributions: Simulation & Application To Real Data, Saeed E. Hemeda, Muhammad A. Ul Haq

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

A new family of inverse probability distributions named inverse Rayleigh family is introduced to generate many continuous distributions. The shapes of probability density and hazard rate functions are investigated. Some Statistical measures of the new generator including moments, quantile and generating functions, entropy measures and order statistics are derived. The Estimation of the model parameters is performed by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Furthermore, a simulation study is used to estimate the parameters of one of the members of the new family. The data application shows that the new family models can be useful to provide better fits than other …

Estimating Parameter Of The Selected Uniform Population Under The Generalized Stein Loss Function, K. R. Meena, Aditi K. Gangopadhyay

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

This paper deals with the problem of estimating scale parameter of the selected uniform population when sample sizes are unequal. The loss has been measured by the generalized Stein loss (GSL) function. The uniformly minimum risk unbiased (UMRU) estimator is derived, and the natural estimators are also constructed under the GSL function. One of the natural estimators is proved to be the generalized Bayes estimator with respect to a noninformative prior. For k = 2, we obtained a sufficient condition for an inadmissibility result and demonstrate that the natural estimator and UMRU estimator are inadmissible. A simulation investigation is also …

Modified-Half-Normal Distribution And Different Methods To Estimate Average Treatment Effect., Jingchao Sun

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three projects related to Modified-Half-Normal distribution and causal inference. In my first project, a new distribution called Modified-Half-Normal distribution was introduced. I explored a few of its distributional properties, the procedures for generating random samples based on Bayesian approaches, and the parameter estimation based on the method of moments. The second project deals with the problem of selection bias of average treatment effect (ATE) if we use the observational data. I combined the propensity score based inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method and the directed acyclic graph (DAG) to solve this problem. The third project …

Statistical Approaches Of Gene Set Analysis With Quantitative Trait Loci For High-Throughput Genomic Studies., Samarendra Das

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Recently, gene set analysis has become the first choice for gaining insights into the underlying complex biology of diseases through high-throughput genomic studies, such as Microarrays, bulk RNA-Sequencing, single cell RNA-Sequencing, etc. It also reduces the complexity of statistical analysis and enhances the explanatory power of the obtained results. Further, the statistical structure and steps common to these approaches have not yet been comprehensively discussed, which limits their utility. Hence, a comprehensive overview of the available gene set analysis approaches used for different high-throughput genomic studies is provided. The analysis of gene sets is usually carried out based on …

Aspects Of Causal Inference., John A. Craycroft

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Observational studies differ from experimental studies in that assignment of subjects to treatments is not randomized but rather occurs due to natural mechanisms, which are usually hidden from researchers. Yet objectives of the two studies are frequently the same: identify the causal – rather than merely associational – relationship between some treatment or exposure and an outcome. The statistical issues that arise in properly analyzing observational data for this goal are numerous and fascinating, and these issues are encompassed in the domain of causal inference. The research presented in this dissertation explores several distinct aspects of causal inference. This dissertation …

Analysis Of Map/Ph/1 Queueing Model With Breakdown, Instantaneous Feedback And Server Vacation, G. Ayyappan, K. Thilagavathy

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this article, we analyze a single server queueing model with feedback, a single vacation under Bernoulli schedule, breakdown and repair. The arriving customers follow the Markovian Arrival Process (MAP) and service follow the phase-type distribution. When the server returns from vacation, if there is no one present in the system, the server will wait until the customer’s arrival. When the service completion epoch if the customer is not satisfied then that customer will get the service immediately. Under the steady-state probability vector that the total number of customers are present in the system is probed by the Matrix-analytic method. …

On A New Class Of Bivariate Survival Distributions Based On The Model Of Dependent Lives And Its Generalization, Shirin Shoaee

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this paper, a new class of survival distributions based on the model of dependent lives and proportional hazard rate family is introduced. This new family of bivariate survival models contains several bivariate lifetime models and is more flexible. The main purpose of this paper is to generalize this family of bivariate survival distributions of dependent lives so that more flexible models can be achieved. These new families of distributions are called the bivariate proportional hazard rate (BPHR) and the bivariate proportional hazard rate-geometric (BPHRG) families, respectively. It is also observed that, if θ = 1, then the BPHR family …

The Linear Combination Of Kernels In The Estimation Of Cumulative Distribution Functions, Abdel-Razzaq Mugdadi, Rugayyah Sani

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The kernel distribution function estimator method is the most popular nonparametric method to estimate the cumulative distribution function F(x). In this investigation, we propose a new estimator for F(x) based on a linear combination of kernels. The mean integrated squared error, asymptotic mean integrated squared error and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth for the new estimator are derived. Also, based on the plug-in technique in density estimation, we propose a data based method to select the bandwidth for the new estimator. In addition, we evaluate the new estimator using simulations and real life data.

A Management Strategy Evaluation Of The Impacts Of Interspecific Competition And Recreational Fishery Dynamics On Vermilion Snapper (Rhomboplites Aurorubens) In The Gulf Of Mexico, Megumi C. Oshima

Dissertations

In the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), Vermilion Snapper (Rhomboplites auroruben), are believed to compete with Red Snapper directly for prey and habitat. The two species share similar diets and have significant spatial overlap in the Gulf. Red Snapper are thought to be the dominate competitor, forcing Vermilion Snapper to feed on less nutritious prey when local resources are depleted. In addition to ecological pressures, GOM Vermilion Snapper support substantial commercial and recreational fisheries. Over the past decade, recreational landings have steadily increased, reaching a historical high in 2018. One cause may be stricter regulations for similar target species such as …

Gardasil Vaccine Trends Within Nevada, California, And The U.S.: A Comparative Study, Karen S. Gutierrez

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Despite decreasing incidence in cervical cancer in the U.S., there continues to be an increase in public health concern for cervical cancer worldwide. Recent studies report that individuals are disproportionately affected based on region, sex, and race. Additionally, the human papillomavirus (HPV) attributable cancers may be reduced between 70% and 90% through the universal use of HPV-vaccines. In order to expand current knowledge and implement intervention programs in Nevada, it is critical to examine the associations among the Gardasil vaccine, cervical cancer screening, and adverse events following immunization as well as to understand the different socio-demographic subgroups affected. To our …

Quantifying The Simultaneous Effect Of Socio-Economic Predictors And Build Environment On Spatial Crime Trends, Alfieri Daniel Ek

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Proper allocation of law enforcement agencies falls under the umbrella of risk terrainmodeling (Caplan et al., 2011, 2015; Drawve, 2016) that primarily focuses on crime prediction and prevention by spatially aggregating response and predictor variables of interest. Although mental health incidents demand resource allocation from law enforcement agencies and the city, relatively less emphasis has been placed on building spatial models for mental health incidents events. Analyzing spatial mental health events in Little Rock, AR over 2015 to 2018, we found evidence of spatial heterogeneity via Moran’s I statistic. A spatial modeling framework is then built using generalized linear models, …

Development Of A Statistical Model To Predict Materials’ Unit Prices For Future Maintenance And Rehabilitation In Highway Life Cycle Cost Analysis, Changmo Kim, Ghazan Khan, Brent Nguyen, Emily L. Hoang

Mineta Transportation Institute

The main objectives of this study are to investigate the trends in primary pavement materials’ unit price over time and to develop statistical models and guidelines for using predictive unit prices of pavement materials instead of uniform unit prices in life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for future maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) projects. Various socio-economic data were collected for the past 20 years (1997–2018) in California, including oil price, population, government expenditure in transportation, vehicle registration, and other key variables, in order to identify factors affecting pavement materials’ unit price. Additionally, the unit price records of the popular pavement materials were …

Incorporating Shear Resistance Into Debris Flow Triggering Model Statistics, Noah J. Lyman

Master's Theses

Several regions of the Western United States utilize statistical binary classification models to predict and manage debris flow initiation probability after wildfires. As the occurrence of wildfires and large intensity rainfall events increase, so has the frequency in which development occurs in the steep and mountainous terrain where these events arise. This resulting intersection brings with it an increasing need to derive improved results from existing models, or develop new models, to reduce the economic and human impacts that debris flows may bring. Any development or change to these models could also theoretically increase the ease of collection, processing, and …

On Simes’S Second Conjecture: An Extended Single-Step Simes Test Procedure For Multiple Testing, Matthew G. Hudson

Dissertations

One of the major concerns with multiple tests of significance is controlling the family wise error rate. Various methods have been developed to ensure that the false positive rate be maintained at some prespecified level. One of the most well know being the Bonferroni procedure. Simes presented an improved Bonferroni procedure for testing the global hypothesis that is more powerful and less conservative, especially with positively correlated tests. While Simes’s procedure is more powerful, it does not allow for making inferences on the individual hypotheses. However, the Simes procedure has since become the foundation of many p-value based multiple testing …

Bayesian Variable Selection Methods For Genome-Wide Association Studies With Categorical Phenotypes, Benazir Rowe

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) attempt to find the associations between genetic markers and studied traits (phenotypes). The problem of GWAS is complex and various methods have been developed to approach it. One of such methods is Bayesian variable selection (BVS). We describe the BVS methods in detail and demonstrate the ability of BVS method Posterior Inference via Model Averaging and Subset Selection (piMASS) to improve the power of detecting phenotype-associated genetic loci, potentially leading to new discoveries from existing data without increasing the sample size.

We present several ways to improve and extend the applicability of piMASS for GWAS. The …

Delta Hedging Of Financial Options Using Reinforcement Learning And An Impossibility Hypothesis, Ronak Tali

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

In this thesis we take a fresh perspective on delta hedging of financial options as undertaken by market makers. The current industry standard of delta hedging relies on the famous Black Scholes formulation that prescribes continuous time hedging in a way that allows the market maker to remain risk neutral at all times. But the Black Scholes formulation is a deterministic model that comes with several strict assumptions such as zero transaction costs, log normal distribution of the underlying stock prices, etc. In this paper we employ Reinforcement Learning to redesign the delta hedging problem in way that allows us …

When Will The Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia End?, Dewi Susanna

Kesmas

On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization(WHO) declared 2019-nCOV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), due to the significant increase in confirmed new cases in various countries.1 In Indonesia, the first confirmed COVID-19 case was a female who had a closed contact with the 24th confirmed case in Malaysia and the second case was the mother of the first case.2 As time goes by, the number of new cases has increased significantly, reaching 160.165 confirmed cases with 6,944 deaths by August 27, 2020.3 The time when the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia will end is not …

Obesity Indicators And C-Reactive Protein In Indonesian Adults (More Than Equal To 40 Years Old): The Indonesian Family Life Survey 5, Yeni Mahwati, Dieta Nurrika

Kesmas

C-reactive protein (CRP) is the best clinical marker for systemic inflammation. Obesity is associated with increased CRP levels. Systemic inflammation is present before morbidity occurs. Research reveals that the identification of obesity indicators and CRP levels is limited among Indonesians. The present study investigated the associations between obesity indicators (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference [WC], waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], waist-to-height ratio [WHtR]) and CRP levels among Indonesian adults. This cross-sectional study based on Indonesian Family Life Survey-5 2014–2015 was conducted among 3,386 adults (≥ 40 years) living in 13 provinces in Indonesia during the study period. All data were collected …

Using The Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance Framework In The Evaluation Of Community-Based Adolescent Care Pilot Program, Badra Al Aufa, Wahyu Sulistiadi, Mochamad Iqbal Nurmansyah, Agung T R Syiroj, Ibrahim Isa Koire

Kesmas

Posyandu Remaja (Posmaja) is a community-based adolescent care service in Indonesia that comprises a group of adolescents working as volunteers and healthcare workers under the guidance and responsibility of the Public Health Centre and City Health Office. The study aims to provide a formative evaluation program of Posmaja using the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. This research used a qualitative approach and took place in South Tangerang City, Indonesia. The data were collected from July until December 2018. Nineteen people participated in the study. The study used in-depth interviews and focus group discussions that adopted the RE-AIM …

A Study On Knowledge, Attitudes, And Practices On Rabies In The Philippines, Reynaldo Jr Bundalian, Monalisa Lacson, Catherine Bacani, Dinah Rose Soriano, Agnes Garing, Artemio Jr Aquino, Archie Policarpio, Joey Kyle Mallari, Remedios San Jose, Maria Fe Bulao, Neil Tanquilut, Patricia Joy Magsino

Kesmas

In 2007, the Philippine government passed the Anti-Rabies Act to address rabies in the country. However, rabies is still a major public health concern in many provinces. This study aimed to evaluate the knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) of residents on rabies, the Anti Rabies Act, and responsible pet ownership (RPO) in Pampanga, Philippines. A cross-sectional survey was done from October 2017 to February 2018 in 92 randomly selected barangays in the province. Questionnaires were adapted from similar studies. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with KAP. Results showed that most people have good knowledge of the Anti-Rabies …

Cultural And Religious Belief Approaches Of A Tuberculosis Program For Hard-To-Reach Populations In Mentawai And Solok West Sumatera, Indonesia, Rizanda Machmud, Irvan Medison, Finny Fitry Yani

Kesmas

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading public health concern in Indonesia. It ranks second on the list of high-burden TB countries. In West Sumatra, 47% of TB cases are undetected, late diagnosed, and received incomplete treatment because of low-level awareness and knowledge and stigma, especially among the hardest to reach populations. The study aims to identify the best communication channel to reach those who live in vulnerable and remote areas. This study was a qualitative study applying in-depth interviews to the informal leaders, health officers, cultural artists, and religious leaders across districts in Mentawai and Solok Districts, which are remote and …

Policy Implementation: Teachers’ Role As First Responders In Emergencies And Disasters, Shabir Hyder, Adnan Fazal Manzoor, Muhammad Amjad Iqbal

Kesmas

During the past decade, the schoolchildren faced many disasters and emergencies originating from natural and man-made sources. The safety of schoolchildren rests with school management and teachers. This study aimed to assess teachers' awareness with regard to disaster prevention and health, safety, security, and environment (HSSE) policies at primary schools in Pakistan. In addition, it explores the suitability of teachers to perform as emergency handlers in the absence of school nurses and resource officers (SROs). The study involved a qualitative study, based on open-ended interviews from a sample of 25 school teachers. Methodology triangulation was applied to reduce bias. Results …

Association Between Social Media Exposure To Food And Beverages With Nutrient Intake Of Female Adolescents, Cholida Adiba, Siti Fatimah Pradigdo, Martha Irene Kartasurya

Kesmas

Communication technology development has influenced adolescent food choices and intakes. This study aimed to investigate the association between social media exposure to food and beverage content and nutrient intake among female adolescents. The study was conducted in a cross-sectional design. The targeted population was 104 female students aged 14–18 years old at 'XY' High School in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Eighty-one subjects were chosen by clustered random sampling. Data were collected by interviews using structured questionnaires and a 3x24-hour recall method. Data analyses were conducted by chi-square, Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression. The median and standard deviations of social-media, …