Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Optimal Conditional Expectation At The Video Poker Game Jacks Or Better, Stewart N. Ethier, John J. Kim, Jiyeon Lee

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

There are 134,459 distinct initial hands at the video poker game Jacks or Better, taking suit exchangeability into account. A computer program can determine the optimal strategy (i.e., which cards to hold) for each such hand, but a complete list of these strategies would require a book-length manuscript. Instead, a hand-rank table, which fits on a single page and reproduces the optimal strategy perfectly, was found for Jacks or Better as early as the mid 1990s. Is there a systematic way to derive such a hand-rank table? We show that there is indeed, and it involves finding the exact optimal …

Unified Methods For Feature Selection In Large-Scale Genomic Studies With Censored Survival Outcomes, Lauren Spirko-Burns, Karthik Devarajan

COBRA Preprint Series

One of the major goals in large-scale genomic studies is to identify genes with a prognostic impact on time-to-event outcomes which provide insight into the disease's process. With rapid developments in high-throughput genomic technologies in the past two decades, the scientific community is able to monitor the expression levels of tens of thousands of genes and proteins resulting in enormous data sets where the number of genomic features is far greater than the number of subjects. Methods based on univariate Cox regression are often used to select genomic features related to survival outcome; however, the Cox model assumes proportional hazards …

A Simulation Study Of Diagnostics For Bias In Non-Probability Samples, Philip S. Boonstra, Roderick Ja Little, Brady T. West, Rebecca R. Andridge, Fernanda Alvarado-Leiton

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

A non-probability sampling mechanism is likely to bias estimates of parameters with respect to a target population of interest. This bias poses a unique challenge when selection is 'non-ignorable', i.e. dependent upon the unobserved outcome of interest, since it is then undetectable and thus cannot be ameliorated. We extend a simulation study by Nishimura et al. [International Statistical Review, 84, 43--62 (2016)], adding a recently published statistic, the so-called 'standardized measure of unadjusted bias', which explicitly quantifies the extent of bias under the assumption that a specified amount of non-ignorable selection exists. Our findings suggest that this new …

Bayesian Approximation Techniques For Scale Parameter Of Laplace Distribution, Uzma Jan, S. P. Ahmad

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The Bayesian estimation of the scale parameter of a Laplace Distribution is obtained using two approximation techniques, like Normal approximation and Tierney and Kadane (T-K) approximation, under different informative priors.

Can One Test Fit All? Responses To The Article “Striving For Simple But Effective Advice For Comparing The Central Tendency Of Two Populations” (Ruxton & Neuhäuser, 2018), Diep Nguyen, Eun Sook Kim, Yi-Hsin Chen

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Responses to suggestions made by Ruxton & Neuhäuser (2018) regarding Nguyen et al. (2016) are given.

Associations Of Hemodynamics, Morphology, And Patient Characteristics With Aneurysm Rupture Stratified By Aneurysm Location, Felicitas J. Detmer, Bong Jae Chung, Carlos Jimenez, Farid Hamzei-Sichani, David Kallmes, Christopher Putman, Juan R. Cebral

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Purpose: The mechanisms of cerebral aneurysm rupture are not fully understood. We analyzed the associations of hemodynamics, morphology, and patient age and gender with aneurysm rupture stratifying by location. Methods: Using image-based models, 20 hemodynamic and 17 morphological parameters were compared in 1931 ruptured and unruptured aneurysms with univariate logistic regression. Rupture rates were compared between males and females as well as younger and older patients and bifurcation versus sidewall aneurysms for different aneurysm locations. Subsequently, associations between hemodynamics and morphology and patient as well as aneurysm characteristics were analyzed for aneurysms at five locations. Results: Compared to unruptured aneurysms, …

On The Conditional And Unconditional Type I Error Rates And Power Of Tests In Linear Models With Heteroscedastic Errors, Patrick J. Rosopa, Alice M. Brawley, Theresa P. Atkinson, Stephen A. Robertson

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Preliminary tests for homoscedasticity may be unnecessary in general linear models. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, results suggest that when testing for differences between independent slopes, the unconditional use of weighted least squares regression and HC4 regression performed the best across a wide range of conditions.

Φ-Divergence Loss-Based Artificial Neural Network, R. L. Salamwade, D. M. Sakate, S. K. Mathur

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can fit non-linear functions and recognize patterns better than several standard techniques. Performance of ANNs is measured by using loss functions. Phi-divergence estimator is generalization of maximum likelihood estimator and it possesses all its properties. A neural network is proposed which is trained using phi-divergence loss.

Robust Ancova, Curvature, And The Curse Of Dimensionality, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

There is a substantial collection of robust analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) methods that effectively deals with non-normality, unequal population slope parameters, outliers, and heteroscedasticity. Some are based on the usual linear model and others are based on smoothers (nonparametric regression estimators). However, extant results are limited to one or two covariates. A minor goal here is to extend a recently-proposed method, based on the usual linear model, to situations where there are up to six covariates. The usual linear model might provide a poor approximation of the true regression surface. The main goal is to suggest a method, based on …

A Strategy For Using Bias And Rmse As Outcomes In Monte Carlo Studies In Statistics, Michael Harwell

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

To help ensure important patterns of bias and accuracy are detected in Monte Carlo studies in statistics this paper proposes conditioning bias and root mean square error (RMSE) measures on estimated Type I and Type II error rates. A small Monte Carlo study is used to illustrate this argument.

A Robust Nonparametric Measure Of Effect Size Based On An Analog Of Cohen's D, Plus Inferences About The Median Of The Typical Difference, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The paper describes a nonparametric analog of Cohen's d, Q. It is established that a confidence interval for Q can be computed via a method for computing a confidence interval for the median of D = X₁ − X₂, which in turn is related to making inferences about P(X₁ < X₂).

Should We Give Up On Causality?, Tom Knapp

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

No abstract provided.

Striving For Simple But Effective Advice For Comparing The Central Tendency Of Two Populations, Graeme Ruxton, Markus Neuhäuser

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Nguyen et al. (2016) offered advice to researchers in the commonly-encountered situation where they are interested in testing for a difference in central tendency between two populations. Their data and the available literature support very simple advice that strikes the best balance between ease of implementation, power and reliability. Specifically, apply Satterthwaite’s test, with preliminary ranking of the data if a strong deviation from normality is expected, or is suggested by visual inspection of the data. This simple guideline will serve well except when dealing with small samples of discrete data, when more sophisticated treatment may be required.

Logistic Regression: An Inferential Method For Identifying The Best Predictors, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

When dealing with a logistic regression model, there is a simple method for estimating the strength of the association between the j^th covariate and the dependent variable when all covariates are entered into the model. There is the issue of determining whether the j^th independent variable has a stronger or weaker association than the k^th independent variable. This note describes a method for dealing with this issue that was found to perform reasonably well in simulations.

Drones And “Ghost Guns”: Unregulated Legal Space, Tori Bodine

Research on Capitol Hill

Law enforcement agencies are fighting a two - pronged battle when it comes to emerging technologies: keeping up with new ways criminals are using technology and developing effective ways to combat these innovations, while balancing these challenges against preserving the individual liberties of law - abiding citizens. This conflict is especially apparent with regard to criminal use of commercial drones and the developing fringe market surrounding homemade untraceable firearms (“ghost guns”).

Data Analytics Pipeline For Rna Structure Analysis Via Shape, Quinn Nelson

UNO Student Research and Creative Activity Fair

Coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) is a cardiovirulent enterovirus from the family Picornaviridae. The RNA genome houses an internal ribosome entry site (IRES) in the 5’ untranslated region (5’UTR) that enables cap-independent translation. Ample evidence suggests that the structure of the 5’UTR is a critical element for virulence. We probe RNA structure in solution using base-specific modifying agents such as dimethyl sulfate as well as backbone targeting agents such as N-methylisatoic anhydride used in Selective 2’-Hydroxyl Acylation Analyzed by Primer Extension (SHAPE). We have developed a pipeline that merges and evaluates base-specific and SHAPE data together with statistical analyses that provides confidence …

Large Scale Dynamical Model Of Macrophage/Hiv Interactions, Sean T. Bresnahan, Matthew M. Froid

UNO Student Research and Creative Activity Fair

Properties emerge from the dynamics of large-scale molecular networks that are not discernible at the individual gene or protein level. Mathematical models - such as probabilistic Boolean networks - of molecular systems offer a deeper insight into how these emergent properties arise. Here, we introduce a non-linear, deterministic Boolean model of protein, gene, and chemical interactions in human macrophage cells during HIV infection. Our model is composed of 713 nodes with 1583 interactions between nodes and is responsive to 38 different inputs including signaling molecules, bacteria, viruses, and HIV viral particles. Additionally, the model accurately simulates the dynamics of over …

Informative Group Testing For Multiplex Assays, Christopher R. Bilder, Joshua M. Tebbs, Christopher S. Mcmahan

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Infectious disease testing frequently takes advantage of two tools–group testing and multiplex assays–to make testing timely and cost effective. Until the work of Tebbs et al. (2013) and Hou et al. (2017), there was no research available to understand how best to apply these tools simultaneously. This recent work focused on applications where each individual is considered to be identical in terms of the probability of disease. However, risk-factor information, such as past behavior and presence of symptoms, is very often available on each individual to allow one to estimate individual-specific probabilities. The purpose of our paper is to propose …

Recent Efforts To Elucidate The Scientific Validity Of Animal-Based Drug Tests By The Pharmaceutical Industry, Pro-Testing Lobby Groups, And Animal Welfare Organisations, Jarrod Bailey

Validation of Animal Experimentation Collection

Background: Even after several decades of human drug development, there remains an absence of published, substantial, comprehensive data to validate the use of animals in preclinical drug testing, and to point to their predictive nature with regard to human safety/toxicity and efficacy. Two recent papers, authored by pharmaceutical industry scientists, added to the few substantive publications that exist. In this brief article, we discuss both these papers, as well as our own series of three papers on the subject, and also various views and criticisms of lobby groups that advocate the animal testing of new drugs.

Main text: We argue …

Non Parametric Test For Testing Exponentiality Against Exponential Better Than Used In Laplace Transform Order, Mahmoud Mansour, M A W Mahmoud Prof.

Basic Science Engineering

In this paper, the test statistic for testing exponentiality against exponential better than used in Laplace transform order (EBUL) based on the Laplace transform technique is proposed. Pitman’s asymptotic efficiency of our test is calculated and compared with other tests. The percentiles of this test are tabulated. The powers of the test are estimated for famously used distributions in aging problems. In the case of censored data, our test is applied and the percentiles are also calculated and tabulated. Finally, real examples in different areas are utilized as practical applications for the proposed test.

Smale Strategies For The $N$-Person Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, Ethan Akin, Sławomir Plaskacz, Joanna Zwierzchowska

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Adapting methods introduced by Steven Smale, we describe good strategies for a symmetric version of the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma with n players.

The Odd Log-Logistic Gompertz Lifetime Distribution: Properties And Applications, Morad Alizadeh, Saeid Tahmasebi, Mohammad Reza Kazemi, Hamideh Siyamar Arabi Nejad, Gholamhossein G. Hamedani

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

In this paper, we introduce a new three-parameter generalized version of the Gompertz model called the odd log-logistic Gompertz (OLLGo) distribution. It includes some well-known lifetime distributions such as Gompertz (Go) and odd log-logistic exponential (OLLE) as special sub-models. This new distribution is quite flexible and can be used effectively in modeling survival data and reliability problems. It can have a decreasing, increasing and bathtub-shaped failure rate function depending on its parameters. Some mathematical properties of the new distribution, such as closed-form expressions for the density, cumulative distribution, hazard rate function, the kth order moment, moment generating function and …

Influence Of Decentralization And Type Of Patient On Loss To Follow-Up Among Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients In Indonesia From 2014 To 2015, Noerfitri Noerfitri, R. Sutiawan, Tri Yunis Miko Wahyono, Pratiwi Ayuningtyas Hartono

Kesmas

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) patients have a greater risk of loss to follow-up (LTFU) than drug-sensitive TB patients, due to their longer treatment duration. This study aimed to determine the influence of decentralization and patient type on LTFU among multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) patients in Indonesia. A retrospective cohort study was conducted at all MDR-TB treatment healthcare facilities in Indonesia from 014 to 2015. Using total sampling technique, 961 patients were examined and sampled. Of these patients, 86.03% were decentralized. Patients were classified into types as follows: 35.17% were “relapse” patients, 5.52% were “new,” 13.94% were classified as “after LTFU” patients, 23.10% …

Knowledge And Practice In Household Waste Management, Agnes Fitria Widiyanto, Suratman Suratman, Nisrina Alifah, Tri Murniati, Oktafiani Catur Pratiwi

Kesmas

Declining environmental quality is one of population caused by household consumption behavior. Some of the highest contaminant contributions are domestic waste, waste, and company waste. Waste contamination will lead to dead fish, decreased water quality and disease transmission. Community approach can be done to solve the waste problem, especially at the household level. This study uses quantitative methods to analyze the effect of intervention and waste management training on changes in household waste management knowledge and practices. This type of research uses quasi experiment with one group of pre and post test design. The results showed that there was an …

Exclusive Breastfeeding And Decrease Of Upper Respiratory Infection Incidence Among Infants Aged 6-12 Months In Kampar District, Riau Province, Musfardi Rustam, Renti Mahkota, Nasrin Kodim

Kesmas

Upper Respiratory Infection (URI) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality of infants and toddlers in developing countries. The high infant morbidity and mortality rates in Indonesia are associated with the low exclusive breastfeeding ability. Breast milk is a natural drink for newborns in the first month of life that is beneficial not only for the babies, but also for mothers. The aim of study was to determine exclusive breastfeeding and decrease in incidence of URI among infants aged 6-12 months. This study was conducted by using case control design. Samples were taken by using cluster random sampling. Subject …

The Consumption Of Fresh Vegetables From Street Food And Sanitation Of Street Stalls At Four Locations In Bogor City, Donna Fujie Rahaditha Utami, Winiati P. Rahayu, Lilis Nuraida

Kesmas

The consumption of fresh vegetables at the stalls needs serious attention. This research aimed to estimate the exposure probability due to fresh vegetables consumption of street food consumers, to measure sanitation level of street stalls that serving fresh vegetables, and to recommend a mentoring program for the stalls at four locations in Bogor City. This research was conducted at 16 stalls located at four locations in Bogor City. The number of respondents surveyed was 293 people and determined by stratified sampling method. Food frequency questionnaire was used as a tool in the survey. The survey showed that men consumed more …

Relationship Model For Occupational Safety And Health Climate To Prevent Needlestick Injuries For Nurses, Ketut Ima Ismara, Adi Heru Husodo, Yayi Suryo Prabandari, Widodo Hariyono

Kesmas

The risk of accidents and disease transmission when working at hospitals is quite high, especially in Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the relationship model between the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) climate and behavior intention in OSH performance to prevent needlestick injuries (NSI) based on a theory of planned behavior. A mixed approach using qualitative and quantitative methods was applied. Data were obtained from Structural Equation Model questionnaires, observation, and documentation, and interviews were analyzed qualitatively. The population was 1,042 nurses at Dr. Sardjito General Hospital in Yogyakarta. The sample consisted of 289 respondents determined by purposive random sampling …

Effect Of Condom Utilization On Sexuall Transmitted Infection Among Female Sex Workers, In Tulungagung District, East Java, Indonesia, Ainun Hanifah, Ari Natalia Probandari, Eti Poncorini Pamungkasari

Kesmas

One effective strategy for preventing sexually transmitted infection (STI) incidence and providing protection for female sex workers (FSWs) from their sexual partners is correct and consistent condom use behavior. This study examined the effect of condom use on STI among FSWs in Tulungagung District, East Java. This analytic and observational study using a cohort prospective design was conducted at Ngujang ex- prostitution area and Gunung Bolo prostitution area, Tulungagung District, from November to January 2017. The total sample selected was 90 FSWs. Data was collected through a set of questionnaires and tracking condom use in a diary. Data were analyzed …

Perception Of People Living With Hiv/Aids On Social Stigma Of Hiv/Aids In Sukoharjo District, Titik Haryanti, Wartini Wartini

Kesmas

The stigma of wrong society about HIV / AIDS is one of the obstacles to prevention and control of HIV / AIDS in Sukoharjo District. This study aims to determine the relationship of characteristics, causal factors and duration of HIV / AIDS with the perception of people living with HIV to the stigma of society about HIV / AIDS in Sukoharjo District. The research used is analytical descriptive with cross sectional approach. The population is all people with HIV / AIDS until April 2016 amounted to 256 with a sample of 156 people with sampling technique quota sampling. Bivariate analysis …

Prediction Models For Descreasing Visual Acuity In Wig Makers, Nur Ulfah, Siti Harwanti, Ngadiman Ngadiman

Kesmas

One of the occupational diseases that can arise for workers with high accuracy is a decrease in their visual acuity. Therefore, it is necessary to study the risk factors of decreasing visual acuity in workers with high accuracy, such as in wig makers. This study aimed to examine the correlation between age, working period, lighting intensity, fatigue, and nutritional status with visual acuity, and to observe the main risk factors that can be used as a reference for predicting decreasing visual acuity. This study was an observational study that used a cross-sectional design. The population number for this study was …