Statistics and Probability Commons^™

A Global Partial Likelihood Estimator Of The Time-Varying Effects For Time-Dependent Treatment, Huazhen Lin, Zhe Fei, Yi Li

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The timing of time-dependent treatment - e.g., when to perform kidney transplantation - is an important factor for evaluating treatment efficacy. A naive comparison between the treatment and nontreatment groups, while ignoring the timing of treatment, typically yields results that might biasedly favor the treatment group, as only patients who survive long enough will get treated. On the other hand, studying the effect of time-dependent treatment is often complex, as it involves modeling treatment history and accounting for the possible time-varying nature of the treatment effect. We propose a varying-coefficient Cox model that investigates the efficacy of time-dependent treatment by …

A Unification Of Mediation And Interaction: A Four-Way Decomposition, Tyler J. Vanderweele

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

It is shown that the overall effect of an exposure on an outcome, in the presence of a mediator with which the exposure may interact, can be decomposed into four components: (i) the effect of the exposure in the absence of the mediator, (ii) the interactive effect when the mediator is left to what it would be in the absence of exposure, (iii) a mediated interaction, and (iv) a pure mediated effect. These four components, respectively, correspond to the portion of the effect that is due to neither mediation nor interaction, to just interaction (but not mediation), to both mediation …

Five Fundamental Gaps In Nature-Nurture Science, Peter J. Taylor

Working Papers on Science in a Changing World

Difficulties identifying causally relevant genetic variants underlying patterns of human variation have been given competing interpretations. The debate is illuminated in this article by drawing attention to the issue of underlying heterogeneity—the possibility that genetic and environmental factors or entities underlying a trait are heterogeneous—as well as four other fundamental gaps in the methods and interpretation of classical quantitative genetics: "Genetic" and "environmental" fractions of variation in traits are distinct from measurable genetic and environmental factors underlying the traits’ development; Standard formulas for partitioning variation in human traits are unreliable; Methods for translation from fractions of variation to measurable …

New Statistical Methods For Analysis Of Historical Data From Wildlife Populations, Trevor Hefley

Department of Statistics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Wildlife biologists, many times with the help of ordinary citizens, have developed and maintained long-term datasets for monitoring the status of wildlife populations. These datasets can range from a collection of citizen-reported sightings of a rare species, to datasets collected by biologists using standardized methods. The commonality is that these datasets span a temporal and spatial scale that is beyond the scope of most scientific studies. Ensuring the continued persistence of wildlife populations requires predictions of the impact of human actions. Regardless if the predictions are quantitative or qualitative, the best we can do is use the past data to …

New Malignancies After Squamous Cell Carcinoma And Melanomas: A Population-Based Study From Norway, Trude E. Robsahm, Margaret R. Karagas, Judy R. Rees, Astri Syse

Dartmouth Scholarship

Skin cancer survivors experience an increased risk for subsequent malignancies but the associated risk factors are poorly understood. This study examined the risk of a new primary cancer following an initial skin cancer and assessed risk factors associated with second primary cancers.

Efficiently Identifying Failures Using Quantitative Tests, Matrix-Pooling And The Em-Algorithm, Brett Hanscom, Susanne May, Jim Hughes

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Pooled-testing methods can greatly reduce the number of tests needed to identify failures in a collection of samples. Existing methodology has focused primarily on binary tests, but there is a clear need for improved efficiency when using expensive quantitative tests, such as tests for HIV viral load in resource-limited settings. We propose a matrix-pooling method which, based on pooled-test results, uses the EM algorithm to identify individual samples most likely to be failures. Two hundred datasets for each of a wide range of failure prevalence were simulated to test the method. When the measurement of interest was normally distributed, at …

A Predictive Enrichment Procedure To Identify Potential Responders To A New Therapy For Randomized, Comparative, Controlled Clinical Studies, Junlong Li, Lihui Zhao, Lu Tian, Tianxi Cai, Brian Claggett, Andrea Callegaro, Benjamin Dizier, Bart Spiessens, Fernando Ulloa-Montoya, L. J. Wei

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Asymmetric Empirical Similarity, Joshua C. Teitelbaum

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

The paper offers a formal model of analogical legal reasoning and takes the model to data. Under the model, the outcome of a new case is a weighted average of the outcomes of prior cases. The weights capture precedential influence and depend on fact similarity (distance in fact space) and precedential authority (position in the judicial hierarchy). The empirical analysis suggests that the model is a plausible model for the time series of U.S. maritime salvage cases. Moreover, the results evince that prior cases decided by inferior courts have less influence than prior cases decided by superior courts.

The Association Of Calcium Intake And Other Risk Factors With Cardiovascular Disease Among Obese Adults In Usa, Yang Chen, Sheryl Strasser, Katie Callahan, David Blackley, Yan Cao, Liang Wang, Shimin Zheng

ETSU Faculty Works

In this study, we used a cross-sectional study design to examine the relationship between the calcium intake and risk factors for CVD among obese adults by using continuous waves of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data 1999-2010. The association between calcium intake and risk factors of CVD (hypertension, total cholesterol, HDL, glycohemoglobin), CRP, albuminuria) is assessed among obese adults in USA. The incidence of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is high among obese people. The potential effects of inadequate calcium intake on CVD are receiving increased epidemiologic attention. Understanding the association between risk factors for CVD and calcium intake among …

Probabilistic Modeling Of Lava Flows: A Hazard Assessment For The San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, Aleeza Harburger

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study serves as a first step towards a comprehensive hazard assessment for the San Francisco volcanic field in northern Arizona, which can be applied to local response plans and educational initiatives. The primary goal of this thesis is to resolve the conditional probability that, given a lava flow effusing from a new vent in the San Francisco volcanic field, it will inundate the city limits of Flagstaff. The spatial distribution of vents within the San Francisco volcanic field was analyzed in order to execute a lava flow simulation to determine the inundation hazard to Flagstaff. The Gaussian kernel function …

A Novel Three Serum Phospholipid Panel Differentiates Normal Individuals From Those With Prostate Cancer, Nima Patel, Robert L. Vogel, Kumar Chandra-Kuntal, Wayne Glasgow, Uddhav Kelavkar

Biostatistics: Faculty Publications

Background: The results of prostate specific antigen (PSA) and digital rectal examination (DRE) screenings lead to both under and over treatment of prostate cancer (PCa). As such, there is an urgent need for the identification and evaluation of new markers for early diagnosis and disease prognosis. Studies have shown a link between PCa, lipids and lipid metabolism. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the concentrations and distribution of serum lipids in patients with PCa as compared with serum from controls.

Method: Using Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS/MS) lipid profiling, we analyzed serum phospholipids from age-matched subjects who …

Clustering Survival Outcomes Using Dirichlet Process Mixture, Lili Zhao, Jingchunzi Shi, Tempie H. Shearon, Yi Li

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Motivated by the national evaluation of mortality rates at kidney transplant centers in the United States, we sought to assess transplant center long- term survival outcomes by applying a methodology developed in Bayesian non-parametrics literature. We described a Dirichlet process model and a Dirichlet process mixture model with a Half-Cauchy for the estimation of the risk- adjusted effects of the transplant centers. To improve the model performance and interpretability, we centered the Dirichlet process. We also proposed strategies to increase model's classification ability. Finally we derived statistical measures and created graphical tools to rate transplant centers and identify outlying centers …

Mediation Analysis With Time-Varying Exposures And Mediators, Tyler J. Vanderweele, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In this paper we consider mediation analysis when exposures and mediators vary over time. We give non-parametric identification results, discuss parametric implementation, and also provide a weighting approach to direct and indirect effects based on combining the results of two marginal structural models. We also discuss how our results give rise to a causal interpretation of the effect estimates produced from longitudinal structural equation models. When there are no time-varying confounders affected by prior exposure and mediator values, identification of direct and indirect effects is achieved by a longitudinal version of Pearl's mediation formula. When there are time-varying confounders affected …

Comparing Partial Least Square Approaches In Gene-Or Region-Based Association Study For Multiple Quantitative Phenotypes, Zhongshang Yuan, Xiaoshuai Zhang, Fangyu Li, Jinghua Zhao, Fuzhong Xue

Human Biology Open Access Pre-Prints

On thinking quantitatively of complex diseases, there are at least three statistical strategies for association study: single SNP on single trait, gene-or region (with multiple SNPs) on single trait and on multiple traits. The third of which is the most general in dissecting the genetic mechanism underlying complex diseases underpinning multiple quantitative traits. Gene-or region association methods based on partial least square (PLS) approaches have been shown to have apparent power advantage. However, few attempts are developed for multiple quantitative phenotypes or traits underlying a condition or disease, and the performance of various PLS approaches used in association study for …

Global Resource Management Of Response Surface Methodology, Michael Chad Miller

Dissertations and Theses

Statistical research can be more difficult to plan than other kinds of projects, since the research must adapt as knowledge is gained. This dissertation establishes a formal language and methodology for designing experimental research strategies with limited resources. It is a mathematically rigorous extension of a sequential and adaptive form of statistical research called response surface methodology. It uses sponsor-given information, conditions, and resource constraints to decompose an overall project into individual stages. At each stage, a "parent" decision-maker determines what design of experimentation to do for its stage of research, and adapts to the feedback from that research's potential …

Qualitative Behavior Of Solutions Of Difference Equations With Several Oscillating Coefficients, Martin Bohner, George E. Chatzarakis, Ioannis P. Stavroulakis

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Sufficient conditions which guarantee the convergence of the non-oscillatory solutions or oscillation of all solutions of a difference equation with several deviating arguments and oscillating coefficients are presented. Corresponding difference equations of both retarded and advanced type are studied. Examples illustrating the results are also given. [Media Object not available: see full text.]

Clinical Trials And Late-Stage Drug Development In Alzheimer’S Disease: An Appraisal From 1984 To 2014, L. S. Schneider, F. Mangialasche, S. Andreasen, H. Feldman, E. Giacobini, R. Jones, V. Mantua, P. Mecocci, L. Pani, B. Winblad, M. Kivipelto

Human Clinical Trials Collection

The modern era of drug development for Alzheimer's disease began with the proposal of the cholinergic hypothesis of memory impairment and the 1984 research criteria for Alzheimer's disease. Since then, despite the evaluation of numerous potential treatments in clinical trials, only four cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine have shown sufficient safety and efficacy to allow marketing approval at an international level. Although this is probably because the other drugs tested were ineffective, inadequate clinical development methods have also been blamed for the failures. Here, we review the development of treatments for Alzheimer's disease during the past 30 years, considering the drugs, …

Media Portrayal Of Individuals In The Lower Class And Its Effects On Attributions Of Educational Hardships, Krista A. Burke

Communication Studies

This study investigated how media portrayals of individuals in the lower class affect people’s beliefs about educational hardships in lower socioeconomic areas. Specifically, this study looked at the attributions of these hardships to determine if media consumption had an effect on the internality of attributions. It was hypothesized that increased media consumption would be related to an increased tendency toward internal attributions. It was hypothesized that increased media consumption would lead to lower support for policy changes regarding education. A survey was distributed to assess media consumption habits and attitudes toward educational hardships in the lower class. Correlation results yielded …

Mobilizing Mechanically Ventilated Neuroscience Patients - A Clinical Practice Guideline To ‘Get Up And Go’, Bonnie Wasilowsky Bspa-Hca, Rn, Cnrn

Patient Care Services / Nursing

No abstract provided.

Benefits And Barriers To Hiv Testing In A Population Of Federal Detention Inmates, Nicole A. Knight

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

Voluntary HIV testing in combination with early medical intervention has been shown to be effective in reducing the rate of new infections and improving the health and life expectancy of those living with HIV. There are however several high-risk populations in the US that remain largely unreached by HIV testing efforts, some of which could be reached while they spend time in prison or jail. Per current Bureau of Prisons (BOP) policy, HIV testing is routinely offered only to “high risk” pretrial and sentenced inmates. We conducted a cross-sectional study with 721 pretrial and sentenced inmates who entered a large …

Determining California National Guard Airmen’S Opinions And Attitudes Regarding Morale, Welfare And Recreation Programs: A Research Project, Natalie Delossa

Journalism

This senior project creates research design parameters that will facilitate two- way communications between the California Air National Guard and its airmen. The benefits of conducting its research are twofold. First, the California Air National Guard can learn more about its airmen. Second, the California Air National Guard can use information about its airmen to better serve its external publics in future public relations and marketing endeavors.

This project addresses the importance of conducting two- way communication between internal and external publics (in this case, the California Air National Guard and its airmen and the California Air National Guard and …

Mcdonald Log-Logistic Distribution With An Application To Breast Cancer Data, M. H. Tahir, Muhammad Mansoor, Muhammad Zubair, Gholamhossein Hamedani

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

We introduce a five-parameter continuous model, called the McDonald log-logistic distribution, to extend the two-parameter log-logistic distribution. Some structural properties of this new distribution such as reliability measures and entropies are obtained. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood using L-BFGS-B algorithm. A useful characterization of the distribution is proposed which does not require explicit closed form of the cumulative distribution function and also connects the probability density function with a solution of a first order differential equation. An application of the new model to real data set shows that it can give consistently better fit …

A Phylogenetic Model For Understanding The Effect Of Gene Duplication On Cancer Progression, Qin Ma, Jaxk H. Reeves, David A. Liberles, Lili Yu, Zheng Chang, Jing Zhao, Juan Cui, Ying Xu, Liang Liu

Biostatistics: Faculty Publications

As biotechnology advances rapidly, a tremendous amount of cancer genetic data has become available, providing an unprecedented opportunity for understanding the genetic mechanisms of cancer. To understand the effects of duplications and deletions on cancer progression, two genomes (normal and tumor) were sequenced from each of five stomach cancer patients in different stages (I, II, III and IV). We developed a phylogenetic model for analyzing stomach cancer data. The model assumes that duplication and deletion occur in accordance with a continuous time Markov Chain along the branches of a phylogenetic tree attached with five extended branches leading to the tumor …

The Art Of Personal Science, Jeff Fajans

The Transdisciplinary STEAM+ Journal

Quantified Self isn’t really about finding answers or solving problems—it’s about asking new questions.

Regression Modeling Of Longitudinal Binary Outcomes With Outcome-Dependent Observation Times, Kay See Tan, Andrea B. Troxel, Stephen E. Kimmel, Kevin G. Volpp, Benjamin French

UPenn Biostatistics Working Papers

Conventional longitudinal data analysis methods assume that outcomes are independent of the data-collection schedule. However, the independence assumption may be violated, for example, when adverse events trigger additional physician visits in between prescheduled follow-ups. Observation times may therefore be associated with outcome values, which may introduce bias when estimating the eect of covariates on outcomes using standard longitudinal regression methods. Existing semi-parametric methods that accommodate outcome-dependent observation times are limited to the analysis of continuous outcomes. We develop new methods for the analysis of binary outcomes, while retaining the exibility of semi-parametric models. Our methods are based on counting process …

Utility Of Recommendation Letters And Correlation With Specific Residency Applicant Qualities, Joseph E. Patruno Md, Amanda B. Flicker Md, Craig Koller Med, Amy B. Smith Phd, Hubert K. Huang Ms, Med, Taylor N. Weilnau

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology

No abstract provided.

Gender Differences In Perceptions And Self-Reported Driving Behaviors Among Teenagers. (Poster), Gavin C. Barr Jr. Md, Kathleen E. Kane Md, Robert D. Barraco Md, Timarie Rayburg Do, Lauren Dugan Do, Chadd K. Kraus Do, Mph, Marna R. Greenberg Do, Mph, Facep, Valerie Rupp Rn, Bsn, Kimberly Hamilton, Bryan G. Kane Md

Department of Emergency Medicine

No abstract provided.

A Statewide Survey Of Institutional Trauma Human Resource Allocation And Associated Patient Mortality, Bryan G. Kane Md, Quincy Gerrald Do, Catherine Fischer Do, Kevin Vong Do, Mary Sibley Do, Justin Binstead Do

Department of Emergency Medicine

No abstract provided.

Does Destination Determine Destiny? A Statewide Analysis Of Trauma Center Mortality, Bryan G. Kane Md, Quincy Gerrald Do, Catherine Fischer Do, Kevin Vong Do, Mary Sibley Do, Justin Binstead Do

Department of Emergency Medicine

No abstract provided.

Toward Directed Energy Planetary Defense, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, J Bible, Jesse Bublitz, Josh Arriola, Caio Motta, Jon Suen, Isabella Johansson, Jordan Riley, Nilou Sarvian, Deborah Clayton-Warwick, Jane Wu, Andrew Milich, Mitch Oleson, Mark Pryor, Peter Krogen, Miikka Kangas, Hugh O'Neill

Statistics

Asteroids and comets that cross Earth’s orbit pose a credible risk of impact, with potentially severe disturbances to Earth and society. We propose an orbital planetary defense system capable of heating the surface of potentially hazardous objects to the vaporization point as a feasible approach to impact risk mitigation. We call the system DE-STAR, for Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploration. The DESTAR is a modular-phased array of kilowatt class lasers powered by photovoltaics. Modular design allows for incremental development, minimizing risk, and allowing for technological codevelopment. An orbiting structure would be developed in stages. The main …