Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Three Classification Techniques In Explaining Health Insurance Coverage, David Boyack Dahl, Dr. Scott D. Grimshaw

Journal of Undergraduate Research

Classification is the assignment of objects to categories using a decision rule based on observed characteristics. Several classification techniques are available to form the decision rule. Each builds the decision rule by modeling the relationship between the actual categories and observed characteristics. The decision rule can then be used to classify other objects for which the true category is unknown. Three popular classification techniques are logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and classification trees. While all three of these classification techniques seem to work with some success, the literature has not come to uniformly accept one technique.

Development Of A Reliable Confidence Interval For The Kappa Statistic, With Application To The Semiconductor Industry, Rachelle Curtis, Dr. G. Bruce Schallje

Journal of Undergraduate Research

In the Semiconductor industry, it is necessary to compare the performance of different test-tapes to assure that each produces similar quality work. Test tapes sort each die, or computer chip, into one of a fixed number of bins, depending on how well it functions. When validating a new test tape, several die are tested using both the old and the new test tape and the bin assignments are compared. Kappa, a statistical measure of agreement, compares the number of matching bin assignments to the number expected if the test tapes are independent. Unfortunately, the closer Kappa is to one (perfect …

A Statistical Report Of Byu Premedical Students From 2002-2007, Daniel Chan, David Kaiser

Journal of Undergraduate Research

In 2006 the average number of BYU medical school applications for any one applicant was 17. With the chance of matriculation per application only 3.8%, yet the cost of each application running as high as $700 each, it is important for BYU premedical students to make informed decisions when choosing to which of 142 medical schools to apply.

Transcription Factor Binding Site Identification Using Mathematical Algorithms, Colin Rogerson, Dr. W. Evan Johnson

Journal of Undergraduate Research

The purpose of our research project was, originally, first to identify the likely binding sites of the Estrogen Receptor transcription factor, and second to identify likely co-factors that interact with Estrogen Receptor in the binding process. We planned to do this using a computational algorithm which scanned sequences of DNA, and by utilizing the position weight matrices of many transcription factors, statistically identify likely binding sites and co-factors.

An Adaptive Bayesian Approach To Dose-Response Modeling, Thomas J. Leininger, Dr. C. Shane Reese

Journal of Undergraduate Research

The Food and Drug Administration is responsible for testing and screening clinical drugs before market entry. The screening process involves different phases which determine a drug’s potency, recommended dosage, and potential side effects. Current statistical designs used to model the efficacy of a drug at varying dosage levels are robust yet inefficient.

Making Sense Of Trends And Data, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

How do you make sense of data when it is all unpredictable?

Bayesian Decision Theoretic Approach To Directional Multiple Hypotheses Problems, Naveen K. Bansal, Klaus J. Miescke

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

A multiple hypothesis problem with directional alternatives is considered in a decision theoretic framework. Skewness in the alternatives is considered, and it is shown that this skewness permits the Bayes rules to possess certain advantages when one direction of the alternatives is more important or more probable than the other direction. Bayes rules subject to constraints on certain directional false discovery rates are obtained, and their performances are compared with a traditional FDR rule through simulation. We also analyzed a gene expression data using our methodology, and compare the results to that of a FDR method.

Predicting Unobserved Exposures From Seasonal Epidemic Data, Eric Forgoston, Ira B. Schwartz

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the lower dimensional manifold on which the deterministic and stochastic dynamics correctly interact. Our method produces a low dimensional stochastic model that captures the same timing of disease outbreak and the same amplitude and phase of recurrent behavior seen in the high dimensional model. Given seasonal epidemic data consisting of the number of infectious individuals, our method enables a data-based model prediction of the number of unobserved exposed individuals over very …

Associations Of Smoking Status And Serious Psychological Distress With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Ke-Sheng Wang, Liang Wang, Shimin Zheng, Long-Yang Wu

ETSU Faculty Works

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been a major public health problem due to its high prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Smoking is a major risk factor for COPD, while serious psychological distress (SPD) is prevalent among COPD patients. However, no study focusing on the effect of SPD on COPD has been so far conducted, while few studies have focused on the associations of SPD and behavioral factors with COPD by smoking status.

Objectives: This study aimed to examine the associations of SPD and behavioral factors (such as smoking and physical activity) with COPD.

Materials and Methods: Weighted logistic regression …

Never Smokers -- Are They More Sensitive To The Respiratory Health Effects Of Ambient Air Pollution?, Zuhair Saleh Natto

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

Background: Several studies show an association between ambient particulate matter (PM) and all-cause mortality. The Adventist Health and Smog 1 (AHSMOG-1) study (N=6,338) has previously found associations between ambient air pollution and incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using the spatial interpolation method from the three nearest fixed monitoring stations to residence and workplace. However, few studies have assessed the risk of death among disease specific subgroups such as those with COPD.

Objectives: The aims of this study were 1) to assess the effect of chronic exposure to ambient air pollutants on risk of all-cause mortality among persons with COPD …

Perceived Attitudes And Staff Roles Of Community Based Outpatient Clinics In Disaster Management, Pauline Antoinette Hodge-Hilton

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

Objective: Natural and manmade disasters have claimed the lives of thousands of individuals in the US and caused billions of dollars in property damage. First responders carry the responsibility of disaster management, leaving other health care professionals such as medical clinic staff underutilized to support the clinic staff. We explored how medical and support staff in Community-based Outpatient VHA Clinics (CBOC) perceive their roles in disaster response, their attitudes about clinic readiness and continuity of care during disasters, and their ability to function in a post disaster environment.

Methods: A mixed method study was conducted to answer questions related to …

A Bayesian Model For Cluster Detection, Jonathan Wakefield, Albert Y. Kim

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

The detection of areas in which the risk of a particular disease is significantly elevated, leading to an excess of cases, is an important enterprise in spatial epidemiology. Various frequentist approaches have been suggested for the detection of “clusters” within a hypothesis testing framework. Unfortunately, these suffer from a number of drawbacks including the difficulty in specifying a p-value threshold at which to call significance, the inherent multiplicity problem, and the possibility of multiple clusters. In this paper, we suggest a Bayesian approach to detecting “areas of clustering” in which the study region is partitioned into, possibly multiple, “zones” …

An Exploratory Study Of Pre-Service Middle School Teachers’ Knowledge Of Algebraic Thinking, Marta Magiera, Leigh A. Van Den Kieboom, John C. Moyer

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Using algebraic habits of mind as a framework, and focusing on thinking about functions and how they work, we examined the relationship between 18 pre-service middle school teachers’ ability to use the features of the algebraic thinking (AT) habit of mind “Building Rules to Represent Functions” and their ability to recognize and interpret the features of the same AT habit of mind in middle school students. We assessed the pre-service teachers’ own ability to use the AT habit of mind Building Rules to Represent Functions by examining their solutions to algebra-based tasks in a semester-long mathematics content course. We assessed …

An Investigation Of Teachers' Intentions And Reflections About Using Standards-Based And Traditional Textbooks In The Classroom, Bikai Nie, Tony Freedman, Stephen Hwang, Ning Wang, John Moyer, Jinfa Cai

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

This study analyzed teachers’ intentions for and reflections on their use of Standards-based [Connected Mathematics Program (CMP)] textbooks and traditional (non-CMP) mathematics textbooks to guide instruction. In this investigation of the interplay between textbooks and instruction, we focused on learning goals, instructional tasks, teachers’ anticipation of students’ difficulties, and their perceptions of students’ achievement of learning goals. All of these are aspects of teachers’ intentions and reflections that have proved fruitful in comparing the roles of the CMP and non-CMP mathematics textbooks in our Longitudinal Investigation of the Effect of Curriculum on Algebra Learning project. Whereas the cognitive level …

The Semigroups B2 And B0 Are Inherently Nonfinitely Based, As Restriction Semigroups, Peter R. Jones

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

The five-element Brandt semigroup B₂ and its four-element subsemigroup B₀, obtained by omitting one nonidempotent, have played key roles in the study of varieties of semigroups. Regarded in that fashion, they have long been known to be finitely based. The semigroup B₂ carries the natural structure of an inverse semigroup. Regarded as such, in the signature {⋅, ^-1}, it is also finitely based. It is perhaps surprising, then, that in the intermediate signature of restriction semigroups — essentially, "forgetting" the inverse operation x ↦ x^-1 and retaining the induced operations x ↦ x^{+ …}

Sub-Independence: An Expository Perspective, Gholamhossein Hamedani

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Limit theorems as well as other well-known results in probability and statistics are often based on the distribution of the sums of independent random variables. The concept of sub-independence, which is much weaker than that of independence, is shown to be sufficient to yield the conclusions of these theorems and results. It also provides a measure of dissociation between two random variables which is much stronger than uncorrelatedness.

Analysis Of Subgroup Data Of Clinical Trials, Kao-Tai Tsai, Karl E. Peace

Biostatistics: Faculty Publications

Large randomized controlled clinical trials are the gold standard to evaluate and compare the effects of treatments. It is common practice for investigators to explore and even attempt to compare treatments, beyond the first round of primary analyses, for various subsets of the study populations based on scientific or clinical interests to take advantage of the potentially rich information contained in the clinical database. Although subjects are randomized to treatment groups in clinical trials, this does not imply the same degree of randomization among sub-populations of the original trials. Therefore, comparisons of treatments in sub-populations may not produce fair and …

Construction, Analysis, And Data-Driven Augmentation Of Supersaturated Designs, Alex J. Gutman

Theses and Dissertations

Screening designs are used in the early stages of industrial and computer experiments to find the most important input factors affecting a system's output. They provide an economical way to remove unimportant factors from further, potentially costly, experimentation. However, when an experiment has a large number of control factors and limited number of available runs, it is infeasible to run a traditional screening design. In these situations, experimenters can use supersaturated designs. A supersaturated design is a fractional factorial design that can screen a set of k factors in n runs, where k is greater than n -1. Unfortunately, they …

Statistical Analysis Of Aerosol Species, Trace Gases, And Meteorology In Chicago, Katrina Binaku, Timothy O'Brien, Martina Schmeling, Tinamarie Fosco

Chemistry: Faculty Publications and Other Works

Both canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were applied to atmospheric aerosol & trace gas concentrations and meteorological data collected in Chicago during the summer months of 2002, 2003, and 2004. Concentrations of ammonium, calcium, nitrate, sulfate, and oxalate particulate matter, as well as, meteorological parameters temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and humidity were subjected to CCA & PCA. Ozone and nitrogen oxide mixing ratios were also included in the data set. The purpose of statistical analysis was to determine the extent of existing linear relationship(s), or lack thereof, between meteorological parameters and pollutant concentrations in addition …

Overcoming Shortage Of Pharmacists To Provide Pharmaceutical Services In Public Health Centers In Indonesia, Yuyun Yuniar, Max Joseph Herman

Kesmas

Indonesia masih menghadapi keterbatasan jumlah apoteker di puskesmas, sehingga pihak pemerintah daerah dan puskesmas harus berupaya mengatasi permasalahan tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menggambarkan ketersediaan dan distribusi tenaga pelayanan kefarmasian di puskesmas serta permasalahan dan alternatif pemecahannya. Data diambil dari hasil Riset Fasilitas Kesehatan (Rifaskes) tahun 2011I. Data kuantitatif tentang tenaga pelayanan kefarmasian di puskesmas dianalisis secara deskriptif berdasarkan regional. Data kualitatif sebagai pendukung diperoleh melalui wawancara mendalam dengan bagian kepegawaian dinas kesehatan dan apoteker empat puskesmas di Kota Bogor dan Bekasi, 3 kemudian dianalisis dengan metode analisis tema. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa Sulawesi memiliki persentase puskesmas dengan tenaga apoteker …

Investigation Of Three Methods Of Variable Selection: Linear Model Selection, Cart And Treed Regression, Todd R. Nelson, Dr. Scott Grimshaw

Journal of Undergraduate Research

My project for the Research and Creative Activities Scholarship Award looks at the effectiveness and accuracy of a popular new method of variable selection. The method under investigation uses tree-based models to select important variables and then uses classical least squares estimation to fit a regression model with the variables contained in the tree. This research tests the strengths and weaknesses of this approach to modeling as compared with more classical methods.

Bayesian And Classical Regression Models Inference When The Errors Follow Skewed Distributions, Ebtisam Karim Abdulah

Theses and Dissertations

The Gamma distribution is one of the most popular distributions for reliability and lifetime data and can be used effectively in analyzing positive skewed data. In real life applications, analysts might wish to have distributions for analyzing positive and negative skewed data, therefore, in this century, we have seen a good attention for fitting data using skew distributions, because it allows continuous variations from symmetric to non-symmetric. Some empirical data, especially, finance (prices and returns) and environmental data have peak distributions and involve tail behavior which affects the model assumptions. In this dissertation, we extend two of the symmetric distributions, …

Modeling Life Expectancy Using Weibull Results Computer Simulation, Scott Morris, Dr. Scott Grimshaw

Journal of Undergraduate Research

The purpose of our project was to model a person’s life expectancy using lifetimes from their ancestry. Typical mortality models are based on data from large populations, and are not necessarily representative of a specific individual. Our primary objective was to model my personal life expectancy based on the men in my own ancestry by looking at their ages at death. The results from the study are unique to my own life, but the methodology applies to anyone who gathers their own ancestral data. Furthermore, these results can be useful in the medical field and in fnancial and retirement planning.

Just A Few More Moments: The G-And-H Distribution, Patrick A. Turley

Journal of Undergraduate Research

Every mathematical model in the social sciences has its assumptions that may or may not be justified. These may be assumptions related to the behavior of the subjects of study (e.g. that people act in their best interests) or assumptions related to the model itself (e.g. that one variable will affect another linearly). A standard assumption in most regression models is that the error of the model is normally distributed, an assumption that doesn’t hold in most cases. In this research, the more flexible g-and-h distribution was examined as an alternative to the normal distribution.

Relativistic Propulsion Using Directed Energy, J Bible, Isabella Johansson, Gary B. Hughes, Philip M. Lubin

Statistics

We propose a directed energy orbital planetary defense system capable of heating the surface of potentially hazardous objects to the evaporation point as a futuristic but feasible approach to impact risk mitigation. The system is based on recent advances in high efficiency photonic systems. The system could also be used for propulsion of kinetic or nuclear tipped asteroid interceptors or other interplanetary spacecraft. A photon drive is possible using direct photon pressure on a spacecraft similar to a solar sail. Given a laser power of 70GW, a 100 kg craft can be propelled to 1AU in approximately 3 days achieving …

Research On The Establishment Of Promulgation System Of Maritime Safety Information In Chengshan Jiao Vts Center, Yunjiang Liu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

De-Star: Phased-Array Laser Technology For Planetary Defense And Other Scientific Purposes, Gary B. Hughes, Philip Lubin, J Bible, Jesse Bublitz, Josh Arriola, Caio Motta, Jon Suen, Isabella Johansson, Jordan Riley, Nilou Sarvian, Jan Wu, Deborah Clayton-Warwick, Andrew Milich, Mitch Oleson, Mikka Kangas, Mark Pryor, Peter Krogen

Statistics

Current strategies for diverting threatening asteroids require dedicated operations for every individual object. We propose a stand-off, Earth-orbiting system capable of vaporizing the surface of asteroids as a futuristic but feasible approach to impact risk mitigation. We call the system DE-STAR (Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploRation). DE-STAR is a modular phased array of laser amplifiers, powered by solar photovoltaic panels. Lowcost development of test systems is possible with existing technology. Larger arrays could be tested in sub-orbital demonstrations, leading eventually to an orbiting system. Design requirements are established by seeking to vaporize the surface of an …

Directed Energy Planetary Defense, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, J Bible, Jesse Bublitz, Josh Arriola, Caio Motta, Jon Suen, Isabella Johansson, Jordan Riley, Nilou Sarvian, Deborah Clayton-Warwick, Jane Wu, Andrew Milich, Mitch Oleson, Mikka Kangas, Mark Pryor, Peter Krogen

Statistics

Asteroids and comets that cross Earth’s orbit pose a credible risk of impact, with potentially severe disturbances to Earth and society. Numerous risk mitigation strategies have been described, most involving dedicated missions to a threatening object. We propose an orbital planetary defense system capable of heating the surface of potentially hazardous objects to the vaporization point as a feasible approach to impact risk mitigation. We call the system DE-STAR for Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploRation. DE-STAR is a modular phased array of kilowatt class lasers powered by photovoltaic's. Modular design allows for incremental development, test, and …

Normalization Techniques For Statistical Inference From Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Russell T. Shinohara, Elizabeth M. Sweeney, Jeff Goldsmith, Navid Shiee, Farrah J. Mateen, Peter A. Calabresi, Samson Jarso, Dzung L. Pham, Daniel S. Reich, Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

UPenn Biostatistics Working Papers

While computed tomography and other imaging techniques are measured in absolute units with physical meaning, magnetic resonance images are expressed in arbitrary units that are difficult to interpret and differ between study visits and subjects. Much work in the image processing literature on intensity normalization has focused on histogram matching and other histogram mapping techniques, with little emphasis on normalizing images to have biologically interpretable units. Furthermore, there are no formalized principles or goals for the crucial comparability of image intensities within and across subjects. To address this, we propose a set of criteria necessary for the normalization of images. …

Comparison Of Bootstrap Confidence Interval Methods In A Real Application: The Kappa Statistic In Industry, Krik O. Monson, Dr. Bruce G. Schaalje

Journal of Undergraduate Research

The kappa statistic is defined as the proportion of agreement between two instruments after chance agreement is removed from consideration (Cohen 1960). It is very useful when assessing the similarities of two instruments or procedures. Industries often use an automated system for testing their products to ensure a level of quality before packaging their goods. Since these systems parts must be periodically replaced, it is necessary to determine if the new components have the same level of accuracy or performance as the old ones. The kappa statistic would be very useful in this situation if a more reliable method for …