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Full-Text Articles in Statistics and Probability

The Optimal Weighting Of Pre-Election Polling Data, Gregory K. Johnson Apr 2008

The Optimal Weighting Of Pre-Election Polling Data, Gregory K. Johnson

Theses and Dissertations

Pre-election polls are used to test the political landscape and predict election results. The relative weights for the state-level data from the 2006 U.S. senatorial races are considered based on the date on which the polls were conducted. Long- and short-memory weight functions are developed to specify the relative value of historical polling data. An optimal weight function is estimated by minimizing the discrepancy function between estimates from weighted polls and the election outcomes.


Scramjet Fuel Injection Array Optimization Utilizing Mixed Variable Pattern Search With Kriging Surrogates, Bryan Sparkman Mar 2008

Scramjet Fuel Injection Array Optimization Utilizing Mixed Variable Pattern Search With Kriging Surrogates, Bryan Sparkman

Theses and Dissertations

Fuel-air mixing analysis of scramjet aircraft is often performed through ex- perimental research or Computational Fluid Dynamics (cfd) algorithms. Design optimization with these approaches is often impossible under a limited budget due to their high cost per run. This investigation uses jetpen, a known inexpensive analysis tool, to build upon a previous case study of scramjet design optimization. Mixed Variable Pattern Search (mvps) is compared to evolutionary algorithms in the optimization of two scramjet designs. The ¯rst revisits the previously stud- ied approach and compares the quality of mvps to prior results. The second applies mvps to a new scramjet …


Improving Mixed Variable Optimization Of Computational And Model Parameters Using Multiple Surrogate Functions, David Bethea Mar 2008

Improving Mixed Variable Optimization Of Computational And Model Parameters Using Multiple Surrogate Functions, David Bethea

Theses and Dissertations

This research focuses on reducing computational time in parameter optimization by using multiple surrogates and subprocess CPU times without compromising the quality of the results. This is motivated by applications that have objective functions with expensive computational times at high fidelity solutions. Applying, matching, and tuning optimization techniques at an algorithm level can reduce the time spent on unprofitable computations for parameter optimization. The objective is to recover known parameters of a flow property reference image by comparing to a template image that comes from a computational fluid dynamics simulation, followed by a numerical image registration and comparison process. Mixed …


Skill Evaluation In Women's Volleyball, Lindsay Walker Florence Mar 2008

Skill Evaluation In Women's Volleyball, Lindsay Walker Florence

Theses and Dissertations

The Brigham Young University Women's Volleyball Team recorded and rated all skills (pass, set, attack, etc.) and recorded rally outcomes (point for BYU, rally continues, point for opponent) for the entire 2006 home volleyball season. Only sequences of events occurring on BYU's side of the net were considered. Events followed one of these general patterns: serve-outcome, pass-set-attack-outcome, or block-dig-set-attack-outcome. These sequences of events were assumed to be first-order Markov chains where the quality of each contact depended only explicitly on the quality of the previous contact but not on contacts further removed in the sequence. We represented these sequences in …


Statistical Approach To The Characterization And Recognition Of Human Gaits, Derrick M. Chelliah Mar 2008

Statistical Approach To The Characterization And Recognition Of Human Gaits, Derrick M. Chelliah

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis addresses the final portion of a complete process for human gait recognition. The thesis takes as input information that has been generated from videotaping walking individuals and converting their gaits into numerical data that measures the locations of various points on the body through time. Beginning with this data, this thesis uses a variety of mathematical and statistical methods to create identifying signatures for each individual and identify them on the basis of that signature. The end goal is to achieve under controlled laboratory conditions human gait recognition, an identification method which does not require contact or cooperation …


Predicting Cost And Schedule Growth For Military And Civil Space Systems, Christina F. Rusnock Mar 2008

Predicting Cost And Schedule Growth For Military And Civil Space Systems, Christina F. Rusnock

Theses and Dissertations

Military and civil space acquisitions have received much criticism for their inability to produce realistic cost and schedule estimates. This research seeks to provide space systems cost estimators with a forecasting tool for space system cost and schedule growth by identifying factors contributing to growth, quantifying the relative impact of these factors, and establishing a set of models for predicting space system cost and schedule growth. The analysis considers data from both Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) space programs. The DoD dataset includes 21 space programs that submitted developmental Selected Acquisition Reports between 1969 …


Probe Level Analysis Of Affymetrix Microarray Data, Richard Ellis Kennedy Jan 2008

Probe Level Analysis Of Affymetrix Microarray Data, Richard Ellis Kennedy

Theses and Dissertations

The analysis of Affymetrix GeneChip® data is a complex, multistep process. Most often, methodscondense the multiple probe level intensities into single probeset level measures (such as RobustMulti-chip Average (RMA), dChip and Microarray Suite version 5.0 (MAS5)), which are thenfollowed by application of statistical tests to determine which genes are differentially expressed. An alternative approach is a probe-level analysis, which tests for differential expression directly using the probe-level data. Probe-level models offer the potential advantage of more accurately capturing sources of variation in microarray experiments. However, this has not been thoroughly investigated, since current research efforts have largely focused on the …


Extending The Information Partition Function: Modeling Interaction Effects In Highly Multivariate, Discrete Data, Paul C. Cannon Dec 2007

Extending The Information Partition Function: Modeling Interaction Effects In Highly Multivariate, Discrete Data, Paul C. Cannon

Theses and Dissertations

Because of the huge amounts of data made available by the technology boom in the late twentieth century, new methods are required to turn data into usable information. Much of this data is categorical in nature, which makes estimation difficult in highly multivariate settings. In this thesis we review various multivariate statistical methods, discuss various statistical methods of natural language processing (NLP), and discuss a general class of models described by Erosheva (2002) called generalized mixed membership models. We then propose extensions of the information partition function (IPF) derived by Engler (2002), Oliphant (2003), and Tolley (2006) that will allow …


Clustering Methods For Delineating Regions Of Spatial Stationarity, Jared M. Collings Nov 2007

Clustering Methods For Delineating Regions Of Spatial Stationarity, Jared M. Collings

Theses and Dissertations

This paper seeks to further investigate data extracted by the use of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (FMRI) as it is applied to brain tissue and how it measures blood flow to certain areas of the brain following the application of a stimulus. As a precursor to detailed spatial analysis of this kind of data, this paper develops methods of grouping data based on the necessary conditions for spatial statistical analysis. The purpose of this paper is to examine and develop methods that can be used to delineate regions of stationarity. One of the major assumptions used in spatial estimation is …


Modeling Transition Probabilities For Loan States Using A Bayesian Hierarchical Model, Rebecca Lee Monson Nov 2007

Modeling Transition Probabilities For Loan States Using A Bayesian Hierarchical Model, Rebecca Lee Monson

Theses and Dissertations

A Markov Chain model can be used to model loan defaults because loans move through delinquency states as the borrower fails to make monthly payments. The transition matrix contains in each location a probability that a borrower in a given state one month moves to the possible delinquency states the next month. In order to use this model, it is necessary to know the transition probabilities, which are unknown quantities. A Bayesian hierarchical model is postulated because there may not be sufficient data for some rare transition probabilities. Using a hierarchical model, similarities between types or families of loans can …


Accounting For Additional Heterogeneity: A Theoretic Extension Of An Extant Economic Model, Bradley John Barney Oct 2007

Accounting For Additional Heterogeneity: A Theoretic Extension Of An Extant Economic Model, Bradley John Barney

Theses and Dissertations

The assumption in economics of a representative agent is often made. However, it is a very rigid assumption. Hall and Jones (2004b) presented an economic model that essentially provided for a representative agent for each age group in determining the group's health level function. Our work seeks to extend their theoretical version of the model by allowing for two representative agents for each age—one for each of “Healthy” and “Sick” risk-factor groups—to allow for additional heterogeneity in the populace. The approach to include even more risk-factor groups is also briefly discussed. While our “extended” theoretical model is not applied directly …


Applying Bayesian Ordinal Regression To Icap Maladaptive Behavior Subscales, Edward P. Johnson Oct 2007

Applying Bayesian Ordinal Regression To Icap Maladaptive Behavior Subscales, Edward P. Johnson

Theses and Dissertations

This paper develops a Bayesian ordinal regression model for the maladaptive subscales of the Inventory for Client and Agency Planning (ICAP). Because the maladaptive behavior section of the ICAP contains ordinal data, current analysis strategies combine all the subscales into three indices, making the data more interval in nature. Regular MANOVA tools are subsequently used to create a regression model for these indices. This paper uses ordinal regression to analyze each original scale separately. The sample consists of applicants for aid from Utah's Division of Services for Persons with Disabilities. Each applicant fills out the Scales of Independent Behavior"”Revised (SIB-R) …


An Adaptive Bayesian Approach To Bernoulli-Response Clinical Trials, Andrew W. Stacey Aug 2007

An Adaptive Bayesian Approach To Bernoulli-Response Clinical Trials, Andrew W. Stacey

Theses and Dissertations

Traditional clinical trials have been inefficient in their methods of dose finding and dose allocation. In this paper a four-parameter logistic equation is used to model the outcome of Bernoulli-response clinical trials. A Bayesian adaptive design is used to fit the logistic equation to the dose-response curve of Phase II and Phase III clinical trials. Because of inherent restrictions in the logistic model, symmetric candidate densities cannot be used, thereby creating asymmetric jumping rules inside the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. An order restricted Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is implemented to account for these limitations. Modeling clinical trials in a Bayesian framework …


Development Of Informative Priors In Microarray Studies, Kassandra M. Fronczyk Jul 2007

Development Of Informative Priors In Microarray Studies, Kassandra M. Fronczyk

Theses and Dissertations

Microarrays measure the abundance of DNA transcripts for thousands of gene sequences, simultaneously facilitating genomic comparisons across tissue types or disease status. These experiments are used to understand fundamental aspects of growth and development and to explore the underlying genetic causes of many diseases. The data from most microarray studies are found in open-access online databases. Bayesian models are ideal for the analysis of microarray data because of their ability to integrate prior information; however, most current Bayesian analyses use empirical or flat priors. We present a Perl script to build an informative prior by mining online databases for similar …


Statistical Considerations In Designing For Biomarker Detection, Trenton C. Pulsipher Jul 2007

Statistical Considerations In Designing For Biomarker Detection, Trenton C. Pulsipher

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this project is to develop a statistical method for use in rapid detection of biological agents using portable gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC/MS) devices. Of particular interest is 2,6-pyridinedicarboxylic acid (dipicolinic acid, or DPA), a molecule that is present at high concentrations in spores of Clostridium and Bacillus, the latter of which includes the threat organism Bacillus anthracis, or anthrax. Dipicolinic acid may be useful as a first-step discriminator of the biological warfare agent B. anthracis. The results of experiments with B. anthracis Sterne strain and Bacillus thuringiensis spores lead to a conceptual model for the chemical …


A Modified Cluster-Weighted Approach To Nonlinear Time Series, Mark Ballatore Lyman Jul 2007

A Modified Cluster-Weighted Approach To Nonlinear Time Series, Mark Ballatore Lyman

Theses and Dissertations

In many applications involving data collected over time, it is important to get timely estimates and adjustments of the parameters associated with a dynamic model. When the dynamics of the model must be updated, time and computational simplicity are important issues. When the dynamic system is not linear the problem of adaptation and response to feedback are exacerbated. A linear approximation of the process at various levels or “states” may approximate the non-linear system. In this case the approximation is linear within a state and transitions from state to state over time. The transition probabilities are parametrized as a Markov …


A Comparative Simulation Study Of Robust Estimators Of Standard Errors, Natalie Johnson Jul 2007

A Comparative Simulation Study Of Robust Estimators Of Standard Errors, Natalie Johnson

Theses and Dissertations

The estimation of standard errors is essential to statistical inference. Statistical variability is inherent within data, but is usually of secondary interest; still, some options exist to deal with this variability. One approach is to carefully model the covariance structure. Another approach is robust estimation. In this approach, the covariance structure is estimated from the data. White (1980) introduced a biased, but consistent, robust estimator. Long et al. (2000) added an adjustment factor to White's estimator to remove the bias of the original estimator. Through the use of simulations, this project compares restricted maximum likelihood (REML) with four robust estimation …


Sensitivity To Distributional Assumptions In Estimation Of The Odp Thresholding Function, Wendy Jill Bunn Jul 2007

Sensitivity To Distributional Assumptions In Estimation Of The Odp Thresholding Function, Wendy Jill Bunn

Theses and Dissertations

Recent technological advances in fields like medicine and genomics have produced high-dimensional data sets and a challenge to correctly interpret experimental results. The Optimal Discovery Procedure (ODP) (Storey 2005) builds on the framework of Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing to optimally test thousands of hypotheses simultaneously. The method relies on the assumption of normally distributed data; however, many applications of this method will violate this assumption. This thesis investigates the sensitivity of this method to detection of significant but nonnormal data. Overall, estimation of the ODP with the method described in this thesis is satisfactory, except when the nonnormal alternative distribution has …


Temporally Correlated Dirichlet Processes In Pollution Receptor Modeling, Matthew J. Heaton May 2007

Temporally Correlated Dirichlet Processes In Pollution Receptor Modeling, Matthew J. Heaton

Theses and Dissertations

Understanding the effect of human-induced pollution on the environment is an important precursor to promoting public health and environmental stability. One aspect of understanding pollution is understanding pollution sources. Various methods have been used and developed to understand pollution sources and the amount of pollution those sources emit. Multivariate receptor modeling seeks to estimate pollution source profiles and pollution emissions from concentrations of pollutants such as particulate matter (PM) in the air. Previous approaches to multivariate receptor modeling make the following two key assumptions: (1) PM measurements are independent and (2) source profiles are constant through time. Notwithstanding these assumptions, …


Separate And Joint Analysis Of Longitudinal And Survival Data, Deepthi Rajeev Mar 2007

Separate And Joint Analysis Of Longitudinal And Survival Data, Deepthi Rajeev

Theses and Dissertations

Chemotherapy is a method used to treat cancer but it has a number of side-effects. Research conducted by the Department of Chemical Engineering at BYU involves a new method of administering chemotherapy using ultrasound waves and water-soluble capsules. The goal is to reduce the side-effects by localizing the delivery of the medication. As part of this research, a two-factor experiment was conducted on rats to test if the water-soluble capsules and ultrasound waves by themselves have an effect on tumor growth or patient survival. Our project emphasizes the usage of Bayesian Hierarchical Models and Win-BUGS to jointly model the survival …


A Multivariate Magnitude Robust Control Chart For Mean Shift Detection And Change Point Estimation, Ryan M. Harrell Mar 2007

A Multivariate Magnitude Robust Control Chart For Mean Shift Detection And Change Point Estimation, Ryan M. Harrell

Theses and Dissertations

Statistical control charts are often used to detect a change in an otherwise stable process. This process may contain several variables affecting process stability. The goal of any control chart is to detect an out-of-control state quickly and provide insight on when the process actually changed. This reduces the off-line time the quality engineer spends assigning causality. In this research, a multivariate magnitude robust chart (MMRC) was developed using a change point model and a likelihood-ratio approach. Here the process is considered in-control until one or more normally distributed process variables permanently and suddenly shifts to out-of-control, stable value. Using …


A Simulation-Based Approach For Evaluating Gene Expression Analyses, Carly Ruth Pendleton Mar 2007

A Simulation-Based Approach For Evaluating Gene Expression Analyses, Carly Ruth Pendleton

Theses and Dissertations

Microarrays enable biologists to measure differences in gene expression in thousands of genes simultaneously. The data produced by microarrays present a statistical challenge, one which has been met both by new modifications of existing methods and by completely new approaches. One of the difficulties with a new approach to microarray analysis is validating the method's power and sensitivity. A simulation study could provide such validation by simulating gene expression data and investigating the method's response to changes in the data; however, due to the complex dependencies and interactions found in gene expression data, such a simulation would be complicated and …


Refinement Of An Instrument To Assess Readiness For Knowledge Management, Landon C. Bailey Mar 2007

Refinement Of An Instrument To Assess Readiness For Knowledge Management, Landon C. Bailey

Theses and Dissertations

Academics and practitioners have described knowledge as a primary source for competitive advantage for organizations; however, many attempts at instituting knowledge management programs to increase organizational competitiveness do not succeed. Instituting knowledge management programs generally requires organizations to make significant changes and the concept of readiness has long been believed to be an important precondition for successful organizational change. By linking previous research in enablers for knowledge management and organizational change, it is possible to adapt an established organizational change readiness instrument to measure readiness for knowledge management. This study culminates in the development and field-testing of the resultant knowledge …


The Effect Of Birth Order On Infant Injury, Heather L. Van Duker Mar 2007

The Effect Of Birth Order On Infant Injury, Heather L. Van Duker

Theses and Dissertations

Pediatric injury is both common and expensive. Finding ways to prevent pediatric injury is a major public health concern. Many studies have investigated various aspects of pediatric injury, and some suggest that birth order may be an important risk factor for pediatric injury. This study further examined the relationship of birth order with pediatric injury, specifically studying the association of birth order with emergency department-attended infant injury while adjusting for other important family and individual covariates. Data for analysis included Utah birth certificate, death certificate, and hospital emergency department datasets, which were probabilistically linked to obtain complete demographic and injury …


Professionalism In The Air Force: A Comparative Analysis Of Commissioned Officers With Non-Commissioned Officers, Edward K. Boyd Mar 2007

Professionalism In The Air Force: A Comparative Analysis Of Commissioned Officers With Non-Commissioned Officers, Edward K. Boyd

Theses and Dissertations

Decades ago, military sociologists predicted a rising trend among officers away from traditional institutional military values and toward more economically-based occupational values due to the effects of the transition from a conscription-based military to an all-volunteer force. Subsequent empirical research resulted in data that supports such predictions. More recent researchers have suggested that in addition to the all-volunteer force, an increase on technology may also accelerate the trend toward occupationalism and away from traditional institutional military values and the warrior ethos that typically define successful military organizations. The officer corps may be particularly vulnerable to occupationalism due to increased technical …


Corporate Entrepreneurship Assessment Instrument (Ceai): Refinement And Validation Of A Survey Measure, Michael S. Cates Mar 2007

Corporate Entrepreneurship Assessment Instrument (Ceai): Refinement And Validation Of A Survey Measure, Michael S. Cates

Theses and Dissertations

The study of corporate entrepreneurship has established itself as a valuable area of research for both public and private-sector organizations. The measurement instrument known as the Corporate Entrepreneurship Assessment Index (CEAI) has been designed to tap the climate-related organizational factors that represent and potentially encourage corporate entrepreneurship. This study is an attempt to refine the CEAI. The core constructs of the CEAI are redefined, the items are tested for content validity, the factor structure is analyzed, and the CEAI is correlated to other known measures to validate the CEAI. Through this testing, the CEAI was refined and found to be …


A Meta-Analysis Of Questionaire Response Rates In Military Samples, Michael R. Parrish Mar 2007

A Meta-Analysis Of Questionaire Response Rates In Military Samples, Michael R. Parrish

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to examine if factors related to questionnaire response rate in the general public also affect response rate in military-only samples. Very little research pertaining to this specific group was located during the literature review. Four response rate factors taken from studies conducted in the general public were selected for this research topic: questionnaire length, questionnaire delivery mode (postal, e-mail, web-based, direct administration, and mixed mode), use of advance notices, and use of follow-up reminders. Data were gathered for a meta-analysis of 73 previously published studies which utilized a survey or questionnaire to collect data …


Graphical And Bayesian Analysis Of Unbalanced Patient Management Data, Emily Stewart Righter Mar 2007

Graphical And Bayesian Analysis Of Unbalanced Patient Management Data, Emily Stewart Righter

Theses and Dissertations

The International Normalizing Ratio (INR) measures the speed at which blood clots. Healthy people have an INR of about one. Some people are at greater risk of blood clots and their physician prescribes a target INR range, generally 2-3. The farther a patient is above or below their prescribed range, the more dangerous their situation. A variety of point-of-care (POC) devices has been developed to monitor patients. The purpose of this research was to develop innovative graphics to help describe a highly unbalanced dataset and to carry out Bayesian analyses to determine which of five devices best manages patients. An …


An Evaluation Of Organizational And Experience Factors Affecting The Perceived Transfer Of U.S. Air Force Basic Combat Skills Training, Shirley D. Crow Mar 2007

An Evaluation Of Organizational And Experience Factors Affecting The Perceived Transfer Of U.S. Air Force Basic Combat Skills Training, Shirley D. Crow

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force is in a state of transformation. Due to ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the focus of Basic Military Training is shifting to basic combat skills, or the skills needed to survive and operate in a hostile environment. In this study, basic combat skills training was evaluated using a number of training factors that potentially affect trainees’ perception of training transfer, or their ability to apply the skills they learned in training on the job or in a hostile environment. The analysis used structural equation modeling to evaluate the paths between each of the factors …


Predicting Argentine Jet Fuel Prices, Juan A. Salaverry Mar 2007

Predicting Argentine Jet Fuel Prices, Juan A. Salaverry

Theses and Dissertations

Oil distillates are considered important elements to accomplish the missions of the Argentine Air Force (AAF). Of all oil products consumed by the AAF, jet fuel is the resource with highest demand and at the end of the day the most expensive support item procured by the Argentine Air Force. Accurate predictions of Argentine jet fuel prices are necessary to improve AAF financial and logistics planning. This thesis presents a systematic, statistical regression approach to forecast Argentine jet fuel prices. The application of this methodology has allowed us to obtain a very useful model that utilizes information available on the …