Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Application Of Non-Rated Line Officer Attrition Levels And Career Field Stability, Christine L. Zens

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force monitors the strength of its active duty officer force and attempts to achieve the difficult challenge of employing a diversity of talent among career specialties and experience levels. This study completes two objectives, predicting future manning levels for 23 career fields, and providing a statistical framework to assess the stability of these fields. The first part of the study applies regression and survival analysis to subpopulations within the active duty Air Force officer corps, and then aggregates them by year to forecast future personnel levels. Four career fields are considered, including Acquisitions (ACQ), Logistics (LOG), Support (SPT), …

Determining The Optimal Work Breakdown Structure For Government Acquisition Contracts, Brian J. Fitzpatrick

Theses and Dissertations

The optimal level of Government Contract Work Breakdown Structure (G-CWBS) reporting for the purposes of Earned Value Management was inspected. The G-Score Metric was proposed, which can quantitatively grade a G-CWBS, based on a new method of calculating an Estimate At Completion (EAC) cost for each reported element. A random program generator created in R replicated the characteristics of DOD program artifacts retrieved from the Cost Analysis Data Enterprise (CADE) system. The generated artifacts were validated as a population, however validation at the demographic combination level using an artificial neural network was inconclusive. Comparative WBS forms were created for a …

Predicting Schedule Duration For Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation To Initial Operational Capability, Christopher A. Jimenez

Theses and Dissertations

Accurately predicting the most realistic schedule for a defense acquisitions program is an extremely difficult task considering the inherent risk and uncertainties present in the early stages of a program. We use a multiple regression analysis to predict schedule duration in a defense acquisition program. The prediction scope of our research is limited to predicting schedule duration from program initiation to initial operation capability (IOC).We use the data from 56 programs across all services, which was acquired from a SAR database created by RAND. We were able to achieve an R2 of 0.429 and an Adjusted R2 of 0.384 in …

On The Dynamics Of Boolean Gene Regulatory Networks With Stochasticity, Yuezhe Li

Theses and Dissertations

Genes are responsible for producing proteins that are essential to the construction of complex biological systems. The mechanisms by which this production is regulated have long been the center of wide spread research efforts. Deterministic Boolean gene regulatory models have been a particularly effective avenue of research in this field. However these models fall short of accounting for variations in the gene functionality due to the uncertain internal or external environmental conditions. One of the recent attempts to overcome this weakness is by (Murrugarra, 2012), in which a probabilistic component is introduced as the fixed activation/degradation propensities at the cellular …

Design & Analysis Of A Computer Experiment For An Aerospace Conformance Simulation Study, Ryan W. Gryder

Theses and Dissertations

Within NASA's Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration # 1 (ATD-1), Interval Management (IM) is a flight deck tool that enables pilots to achieve or maintain a precise in-trail spacing behind a target aircraft. Previous research has shown that violations of aircraft spacing requirements can occur between an IM aircraft and its surrounding non-IM aircraft when it is following a target on a separate route. This research focused on the experimental design and analysis of a deterministic computer simulation which models our airspace configuration of interest. Using an original space-filling design and Gaussian process modeling, we found that aircraft delay assignments …

Semiparametric Regression Analysis Of Panel Count Data And Interval-Censored Failure Time Data, Bin Yao

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation discusses three important research topics on semiparametric regression analysis of panel count data and interval-censored data. Both types of data arise commonly in real-life studies in many fields such as epidemiology, social science, and medical research. In these studies, subjects are usually examined multiple times at periodical or irregular follow-up examinations. For panel count data, the response variable is the counts of some recurrent events, whose exact occurrence times are usually unknown. For interval-censored data, the response variable is the time to some events of interest, often called survival time or failure time, and the exact response time …

The Reflected-Shifted-Truncated-Gamma Distribution For Negatively Skewed Survival Data With Application To Pediatric Nephrotic Syndrome, Sophia D. Waymyers

Theses and Dissertations

Negatively skewed survival data arise occasionally in public health fields and in statistical research. Standard distributions such as the exponential, generalized F, generalized gamma, Gompertz, log-logistic, lognormal, Rayleigh, and Weibull distributions are not always well suited to this data. The primary goal of this dissertation is to find a viable alternative for modeling negatively skewed survival data such as the time to first remission for pediatric patients with frequently relapsing or steroid dependent nephrotic syndrome.

We begin with a brief introduction of survival analysis and the nature of pediatric nephrotic syndrome. A meta-analysis on atopy and pediatric nephrotic syndrome using …

Non-Conventional Approaches To Syntheses Of Ferromagnetic Nanomaterials, Dustin M. Clifford

Theses and Dissertations

The work of this dissertation is centered on two non-conventional synthetic approaches to ferromagnetic nanomaterials: high-throughput experimentation (HTE) (polyol process) and continuous flow (CF) synthesis (aqueous reduction and the polyol process). HTE was performed to investigate phase control between Fe_xCo_1-x and Co_3-xFe_xO_y. Exploration of synthesis limitations based on magnetic properties was achieved by reproducing M_s=210 emu/g. Morphological control of Fe_xCo_1-x alloy was achieved by formation of linear chains using an H_ext. The final study of the Fe_xCo_1-x chains used DoE to …

Finding The Cutpoint Of A Continuous Covariate In A Parametric Survival Analysis Model, Kabita Joshi

Theses and Dissertations

In many clinical studies, continuous variables such as age, blood pressure and cholesterol are measured and analyzed. Often clinicians prefer to categorize these continuous variables into different groups, such as low and high risk groups. The goal of this work is to find the cutpoint of a continuous variable where the transition occurs from low to high risk group. Different methods have been published in literature to find such a cutpoint. We extended the methods of Contal and O’Quigley (1999) which was based on the log-rank test and the methods of Klein and Wu (2004) which was based on the …

Sample Size Calculation For Ph Mixture Cure Model, Yihong Zhan

Theses and Dissertations

With the development of advanced medical technology, a significant proportion of patients can be cured of many chronic diseases. Because a substantial fraction of patients have censored information, the standard survival model, such as the proportional hazards (PH) model cannot capture the cured information of patients. Thus PH mixture cure model is developed to handle the survival data with potential cured information. A corresponding sample size formula based on log rank test has been proposed by Wang et al. (2012) and the probability of death in their formula is only contributed by the control arm. However, to calculate the sample …

Parametric Reversed Hazards Model For Left Censored Data With Application To Hiv, Farahnaz Islam

Theses and Dissertations

Left censoring is generally a rare type of censoring in time-to-event data, however there are some fields such as HIV related studies where it commonly occurs. Currently, there is no clear recommendation in the literature on the optimal model and distribution to analyze left-censored data. Recommendations can help researchers apply more accurate models for this type of censoring. This study derives the Parametric Reversed Hazards (PRH) Model for a variety of distributions which may be appropriate for left censored data. The performance of these derived PRH models to analyze HIV viral load data are compared using extensive simulations and a …

Modeling Spatially Varying Effects Of Chemical Mixtures, Jenna Czarnota

Theses and Dissertations

Cancer incidence is associated with exposures to multiple environmental chemicals, and geographic variation in cancer rates suggests the importance of accommodating spatially varying effects in the analysis of environmental chemical mixtures and disease risk. Traditional regression methods are challenged by the complex correlation patterns inherent among co-occurring chemicals, and the applicability of geographically weighted regression models is limited in the setting of environmental chemical risk analysis. In comparison to traditional methods, weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression performs well in the identification of important environmental exposures, but is limited by the assumption that effects are fixed over space. We present an …

Registration And Clustering Of Functional Observations, Zizhen Wu

Theses and Dissertations

As an important exploratory analysis, curves of similar shape are often classified into groups, which we call clustering of functional data. Phase variations or time distortions are often encountered in the biological processes, such as growth patterns or gene profiles. As a result of time distortion, curves of similar shape may not be aligned. Regular clustering methods for functional data usually ignore the presence of phase variations, which may result in low clustering accuracy. However, it is difficult to account for phase variation without knowing the cluster structure.

In this dissertation, we first propose a Bayesian method that simultaneously clusters …

Modern Estimation Problems In Group Testing, Md Shamim Sarker

Theses and Dissertations

In the simplest form of group testing, pools are formed by compositing a fixed number of individual specimens (e.g., blood, urine, swab, etc.) and then the pools are tested for a binary characteristic, such as presence or absence of a disease. Group testing is commonly used to screen for a variety of sexually transmitted diseases in epidemiological applications where the main goal is to increase testing efficiency. In this dissertation, we study three estimation problems that are motivated by real-life applications. We propose new methods to model group testing data for both single and multiple infections. In the first problem, …

Semiparametric Joint Dynamic Modeling Of A Longitudinal Marker, Recurrent Competing Risks, And A Terminal Event, Piaomu Liu

Theses and Dissertations

The joint modeling framework has found extensive applications in cancer and other biomedical research. For example, recent initiatives and developments in precision medicine call for appropriate prognostic tools to assist individualized or personalized approaches in cancer diagnosis and treatment. Data generated by clinical trials and medical research often include correlated longitudinal marker measurements and time- to-event information, which are possibly a recurrent event, competing risks, and a survival outcome. Primary interests of joint modeling include the association between the longitudinal marker measurements and time-to-event data, as well as predictions of survival probabilities of new observational units from the same population. …

Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of The Occupational Fatal Victimization Of Law Enforcement Officers In The Us, Xueyi Xing

Theses and Dissertations

The models with constant coefficients of the covariates across space and time are commonly used in spatio-temporal analyses. However, the associations between risk factors and the outcome could have locally differential temporal trends in many cases. In this study, a Bayesian latent cluster modeling strategy is employed to identify potential spatial clusters in which locally specific sets of temporally varying coefficients of covariates are allowed. A state-level panel data of police officers occupational fatal victimization for the years 1979-2010 is used. To accommodate overdisperson and excess zeros, a negative binomial model and zero-inflated Poisson/negative binomial models are also utilized. A …

Regression Models For Count Data Based On The Double Poisson Distribution, Rebecca Wardrop

Theses and Dissertations

This paper explores the double Poisson distribution. The probability mass function and the difficulties associated with derivative-based optimization for this distribution are discussed. Stata software developed for estimation of double Poisson regression is detailed. Simulations are used to test the software. Data which are over-, under-, and equidispersed relative to the Poisson are generated and the software is utilized to estimate a regression model, a zero-inflated model, and a marginalized zero-inflated model all based on the double Poisson distribution. The estimated power of the test for φ = 1 for the double Poisson models are compared to the power of …

Score Test Derivations And Implementations For Bivariate Probability Mass And Density Functions With An Application To Copula Functions, Roy Bower

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation is comprised and grounded in statistical theory with an application to solving real world problems. In particular, the development and implementation of multiple score tests under a variety of scenarios are derived, applied, and interpreted. In chapter 2, I propose a score test for independence of the marginals based on Lakshminarayana’s bivariate Poisson distribution. Each marginal distribution of the bivariate model is a univariate Poisson distribution, and the parameters of the bivariate distribution can be estimated using maximum likelihood methods. The simulation study shows that the score test maintains size close to the nominal level. To assess the …

Some Issues In Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation For Item Response Theory, Han Kil Lee

Theses and Dissertations

Both the marginalized Bayesian modal estimation (MBME) and Metropolis-Hasting within Gibbs (MH/Gibbs) are the popular estimation methods for Item Response Theory (IRT). However, predictions from MBME and MH/Gibbs are not directly comparable because of two problems. First, the examinees with the same response pattern do not produce the same ability estimates from MH/Gibbs while MBME provides identical estimates. This problem can be handled by updating each response pattern instead of updating each examinee. Second, standard errors from MBME are smaller than standard error estimates from MH/Gibbs. This pattern occurs because of two speculated reasons; correlation between item parameter estimations and …

Semiparametric Estimation Methods For Complex Accelerated Failure Time Model, Yinding Wang

Theses and Dissertations

The proportional hazards (PH) model and the accelerated failure time (AFT) model are the two most popular survival models in fitting the right-censored data. The AFT model is a useful alternative to the PH model, particularly when the PH assumption is not satisfied. Usually, the linear association is assumed with logarithm of survival time in the AFT model. However, the nonlinear association may exist in practice. The first project aims to handle the nonlinear component in the AFT model, which is called the semiparametric additive partial accelerated failure time (AP-AFT) model. Two estimation methods based on the rank-smooth method and …

Bayesian Ensemble Of Regression Trees For Multinomial Probit And Quantile Regression, Bereket P. Kindo

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation proposes multinomial probit Bayesian additive regression trees (MPBART), ordered multiclass Bayesian additive classification trees (O-MBACT) and Bayesian quantile additive regression trees (BayesQArt) as extensions of BART - Bayesian additive regression trees for tackling multinomial choice, multiclass classification, ordinal regression and quantile regression problems. The proposed models exhibit very good predictive performances. In particular, ranking among the top performing procedures when non-linear relationships exist between the response and the predictors. The proposed procedures can readily be applied on data sets with the number of predictors larger than the number of observations.

MPBART is sufficiently flexible to allow inclusion of …

Frailty Probit Models For Clustered Interval-Censored Failure Time Data, Haifeng Wu

Theses and Dissertations

Survival analysis is an important branch of statistics that deals with time to event data or survival data. An important feature of such data is that the survival time of interest is usually not completely known but is censored due to the design of the study or an early dropout. In this dissertation we focus on studying clustered interval-censored data, a special type of survival data. Interval-censored data arise in many epidemiological, social science, and medical studies, in which subjects are examined at periodical follow-up visits. The survival (or failure) time of interest is never exactly observed but is known …

A Weighted Gene Co-Expression Network Analysis For Streptococcus Sanguinis Microarray Experiments, Erik C. Dvergsten

Theses and Dissertations

Streptococcus sanguinis is a gram-positive, non-motile bacterium native to human mouths. It is the primary cause of endocarditis and is also responsible for tooth decay. Two-component systems (TCSs) are commonly found in bacteria. In response to environmental signals, TCSs may regulate the expression of virulence factor genes.

Gene co-expression networks are exploratory tools used to analyze system-level gene functionality. A gene co-expression network consists of gene expression profiles represented as nodes and gene connections, which occur if two genes are significantly co-expressed. An adjacency function transforms the similarity matrix containing co-expression similarities into the adjacency matrix containing connection strengths. Gene …

Provision Of Hospital-Based Palliative Care And The Impact On Organizational And Patient Outcomes, Marisa L. Roczen

Theses and Dissertations

Hospital-based palliative care services aim to streamline medical care for patients with chronic and potentially life-limiting illnesses by focusing on individual patient needs, efficient use of hospital resources, and providing guidance for patients, patients’ families and clinical providers toward making optimal decisions concerning a patient’s care. This study examined the nature of palliative care provision in U.S. hospitals and its impact on selected organizational and patient outcomes, including hospital costs, length of stay, in-hospital mortality, and transfer to hospice. Hospital costs and length of stay are viewed as important economic indicators. Specifically, lower hospital costs may increase a hospital’s profit …

In-Shoe Plantar Pressure System To Investigate Ground Reaction Force Using Android Platform, Ahmed A. Mostfa

Theses and Dissertations

Human footwear is not yet designed to optimally relieve pressure on the heel of the foot. Proper foot pressure assessment requires personal training and measurements by specialized machinery. This research aims to investigate and hypothesize about Preferred Transition Speed (PTS) and to classify the gait phase of explicit variances in walking patterns between different subjects. An in-shoe wearable pressure system using Android application was developed to investigate walking patterns and collect data on Activities of Daily Living (ADL). In-shoe circuitry used Flexi-Force A201 sensors placed at three major areas: heel contact, 1st metatarsal, and 5th metatarsal with a PIC16F688 microcontroller …

Selecting Spatial Scale Of Area-Level Covariates In Regression Models, Lauren Grant

Theses and Dissertations

Studies have found that the level of association between an area-level covariate and an outcome can vary depending on the spatial scale (SS) of a particular covariate. However, covariates used in regression models are customarily modeled at the same spatial unit. In this dissertation, we developed four SS model selection algorithms that select the best spatial scale for each area-level covariate. The SS forward stepwise, SS incremental forward stagewise, SS least angle regression (LARS), and SS lasso algorithms allow for the selection of different area-level covariates at different spatial scales, while constraining each covariate to enter at most one spatial …

Meta-Analytic Estimation Techniques For Non-Convergent Repeated-Measure Clustered Data, Aobo Wang

Theses and Dissertations

Clustered data often feature nested structures and repeated measures. If coupled with binary outcomes and large samples (>10,000), this complexity can lead to non-convergence problems for the desired model especially if random effects are used to account for the clustering. One way to bypass the convergence problem is to split the dataset into small enough sub-samples for which the desired model convergences, and then recombine results from those sub-samples through meta-analysis. We consider two ways to generate sub-samples: the K independent samples approach where the data are split into k mutually-exclusive sub-samples, and the cluster-based approach where naturally existing …

Dimension Reduction And Variable Selection, Hossein Moradi Rekabdarkolaee

Theses and Dissertations

High-dimensional data are becoming increasingly available as data collection technology advances. Over the last decade, significant developments have been taking place in high-dimensional data analysis, driven primarily by a wide range of applications in many fields such as genomics, signal processing, and environmental studies. Statistical techniques such as dimension reduction and variable selection play important roles in high dimensional data analysis. Sufficient dimension reduction provides a way to find the reduced space of the original space without a parametric model. This method has been widely applied in many scientific fields such as genetics, brain imaging analysis, econometrics, environmental sciences, etc. …

Using Spatiotemporal Methods To Fill Gaps In Energy Usage Interval Data, Kristin K. Graves

Theses and Dissertations

Researchers analyzing spatiotemporal or panel data, which varies both in location and over time, often find that their data has holes or gaps. This thesis explores alternative methods for filling those gaps and also suggests a set of techniques for evaluating those gap-filling methods to determine which works best.

Proof-Of-Concept Of Environmental Dna Tools For Atlantic Sturgeon Management, Jameson Hinkle

Theses and Dissertations

Abstract

The Atlantic Sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus, Mitchell) is an anadromous species that spawns in tidal freshwater rivers from Canada to Florida. Overfishing, river sedimentation and alteration of the river bottom have decreased Atlantic Sturgeon populations, and NOAA lists the species as endangered. Ecologists sometimes find it difficult to locate individuals of a species that is rare, endangered or invasive. The need for methods less invasive that can create more resolution of cryptic species presence is necessary. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is a non-invasive means of detecting rare, endangered, or invasive species by isolating nuclear or mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from the …