Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Simulating Influenza Transmission With Network Data, Henry V. Bongiovi

Statistics

Simulating Influenza Transmission with Real Network Data

Henry Bongiovi BS Statistics, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

[email protected]

Keywords: Network Data, Simulation, Education, Influenza, Epidemic

Disease has been humanities arch rival since the dawn of our existence. As such, we have been trying our best to understand its spread and proliferation. One of the most common diseases, Influenza, is also one of the most complex. To understand the complexities of its spread would greatly improve our ability to combat it and other diseases like it. Using R in conjunction with the package statnet, I have created a simulation of …

A Comparison Of Prenatal Alcohol, Tobacco, And Other Drug Use Between San Luis Obispo County And Ventura County, Dana M. Williamson

Statistics

Prenatal substance abuse is a growing issue in America. It can lead to fetal alcohol spectrum disorder, long term growth, behavior, and executive functioning problems, and creates a predisposition for drug use for the child.

This project summarizes the statistical analyses comparing alcohol, tobacco, and other drug use by pregnant women between San Luis Obispo County and Ventura County. The main goal of these analyses is to determine if there is a difference between San Luis Obispo County and Ventura County. This is an interesting comparison because these counties are neighboring counties, and past data have shown that the rate …

Hidden Trends In Nfl Data, Scott Santor

Statistics

This is an analysis on National Football League (NFL) data for the 2013-2014 regular season. The main goal is to find hidden trends in game data that can ultimately determine which factors are statistically significant to award a team with their ultimate objective, a win.

The main response variable to be examined is total wins throughout the regular season, and an alternative dependent variable is spread; the difference between a team’s points scored, and points against. Spread is analyzed to provide a different quantitative response variable that can be both positive and negative.

Game data was gathered from ESPN.com box …

Toward Directed Energy Planetary Defense, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, J Bible, Jesse Bublitz, Josh Arriola, Caio Motta, Jon Suen, Isabella Johansson, Jordan Riley, Nilou Sarvian, Deborah Clayton-Warwick, Jane Wu, Andrew Milich, Mitch Oleson, Mark Pryor, Peter Krogen, Miikka Kangas, Hugh O'Neill

Statistics

Asteroids and comets that cross Earth’s orbit pose a credible risk of impact, with potentially severe disturbances to Earth and society. We propose an orbital planetary defense system capable of heating the surface of potentially hazardous objects to the vaporization point as a feasible approach to impact risk mitigation. We call the system DE-STAR, for Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploration. The DESTAR is a modular-phased array of kilowatt class lasers powered by photovoltaics. Modular design allows for incremental development, minimizing risk, and allowing for technological codevelopment. An orbiting structure would be developed in stages. The main …

Calculating Ellipse Overlap Areas, Gary B. Hughes, Mohcine Chraibi

Statistics

We present an approach for finding the overlap area between two ellipses that does not rely on proxy curves. The Gauss-Green formula is used to determine a segment area between two points on an ellipse. Overlap between two ellipses is calculated by combining the areas of appropriate segments and polygons in each ellipse. For four of the ten possible orientations of two ellipses, the method requires numerical determination of transverse intersection points. Approximate intersection points can be determined by solving the two implicit ellipse equations simultaneously. Alternative approaches for finding transverse intersection points are available using tools from algebraic geometry, …

Reaching The Gold Standard: Assessing Driving Ability Among Student And Expert Drivers, Alyssa Davis

Statistics

No abstract provided.

Relativistic Propulsion Using Directed Energy, J Bible, Isabella Johansson, Gary B. Hughes, Philip M. Lubin

Statistics

We propose a directed energy orbital planetary defense system capable of heating the surface of potentially hazardous objects to the evaporation point as a futuristic but feasible approach to impact risk mitigation. The system is based on recent advances in high efficiency photonic systems. The system could also be used for propulsion of kinetic or nuclear tipped asteroid interceptors or other interplanetary spacecraft. A photon drive is possible using direct photon pressure on a spacecraft similar to a solar sail. Given a laser power of 70GW, a 100 kg craft can be propelled to 1AU in approximately 3 days achieving …

De-Star: Phased-Array Laser Technology For Planetary Defense And Other Scientific Purposes, Gary B. Hughes, Philip Lubin, J Bible, Jesse Bublitz, Josh Arriola, Caio Motta, Jon Suen, Isabella Johansson, Jordan Riley, Nilou Sarvian, Jan Wu, Deborah Clayton-Warwick, Andrew Milich, Mitch Oleson, Mikka Kangas, Mark Pryor, Peter Krogen

Statistics

Current strategies for diverting threatening asteroids require dedicated operations for every individual object. We propose a stand-off, Earth-orbiting system capable of vaporizing the surface of asteroids as a futuristic but feasible approach to impact risk mitigation. We call the system DE-STAR (Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploRation). DE-STAR is a modular phased array of laser amplifiers, powered by solar photovoltaic panels. Lowcost development of test systems is possible with existing technology. Larger arrays could be tested in sub-orbital demonstrations, leading eventually to an orbiting system. Design requirements are established by seeking to vaporize the surface of an …

Directed Energy Planetary Defense, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, J Bible, Jesse Bublitz, Josh Arriola, Caio Motta, Jon Suen, Isabella Johansson, Jordan Riley, Nilou Sarvian, Deborah Clayton-Warwick, Jane Wu, Andrew Milich, Mitch Oleson, Mikka Kangas, Mark Pryor, Peter Krogen

Statistics

Asteroids and comets that cross Earth’s orbit pose a credible risk of impact, with potentially severe disturbances to Earth and society. Numerous risk mitigation strategies have been described, most involving dedicated missions to a threatening object. We propose an orbital planetary defense system capable of heating the surface of potentially hazardous objects to the vaporization point as a feasible approach to impact risk mitigation. We call the system DE-STAR for Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploRation. DE-STAR is a modular phased array of kilowatt class lasers powered by photovoltaic's. Modular design allows for incremental development, test, and …

Emirical Assessment Of The Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Losers, Nicholas Powers

Statistics

In the Wall Street Journal in early 2013, there was an article posted by Andrew Bary that explored a trend in the previous 3 years of the S&P 500. The article pointed out that the average returns for the top 10 percentage decliners for 2009, 2010, and 2011 outperformed the S&P 500 for the first two weeks of the next year. These top 10 percentage decliners or losers well enough to bet on. This study looks to see if there is statistical evidence that the losers outperformed the S&P 500.

Process Characterization Using Response Surface Methodology, Katherine A. Eng

Statistics

A local engineering firm proposed a joint collaboration with the Cal Poly Statistics Department to investigate the sources of variability in a certain measurement process, understand normal operability characteristics of the machine, reduce variability in machine measurements, establish process monitoring and control for the system, and verify utility of the proposed process control through designed experimentation. This senior project entailed designed experimentation and analysis using response surface methodology to better understand the normal operability characteristics of the machine. Further experimentation and analysis is necessary to devise, implement, and verify statistical process control measures.

Pedestrian Detection Using Image Blending, Hannah Haggerty

Statistics

No abstract provided.

Examining Introductory Students’ Attitudes In A Randomization-Based Curriculum, Joshua Ryan Beemer

Statistics

Student attitudes regarding introductory statistics courses are not always the most positive. The purpose of this research is to utilize the Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics to evaluate introductory statistics students’ attitudes pre- and post course. Furthermore, comparisons of attitudes within different introductory course curricula across institutions will be made. Various components within the survey, such as difficulty, value, and interest, will be assessed in order to determine where students’ attitudes are affected the most and how they are correlated with other variables such as current GPA and curriculum taught. The outcomes for these models look at demographic predictors that …

Nba Salaries: Assessing True Player Value, Michael Ghirardo

Statistics

This paper analyzes and calculates an advanced NBA statistic that is becoming more and more widely used in the NBA. The Adjusted plus-minus (APM) statistic measures a player’s contribution, independent of all other players on the court. The most appealing aspect to the APM is that it only attempts to capture how a team’s scoring margin changes with a particular player on and off the court. Scoring margin in basketball effects winning percentage greatly, so it only makes sense that players with high APM’s will increase their team’s scoring margin and, therefore, help win games. The APM statistic is not …

Journal Acceptance Policies On Etds, Chelsea Kern

Statistics

No abstract provided.

Is Obesity Socially Contagious?, Ciani Jean Sparks

Statistics

The main objective of this paper is to analyze three different articles that discuss whether obesity could be socially contagious. According to the World Health Organization in 2013, obesity is the fifth leading risk for deaths around the world. This disease has dramatically increased in the last decade, which has led scientists to believe there are other factors contributing to the epidemic besides genetics. The first article I analyzed, written by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler, provided a logistic regression model to estimate the odds of a person becoming obese. The model included the explanatory variables: age, sex, education, smoking …

Views On Sexual Assault Among Ifc Fraternities, Steven Legore

Statistics

The data collection and analysis for this project was performed for a consulting client Cierra, a fourth year Sociology major that works at the Safer Office on campus. She went to the consulting center on campus for help with the analysis of her project. She wanted to survey the IFC fraternities at Cal Poly on their views on sexual assault and rape. Thirteen IFC fraternities were surveyed with a total of 488 respondents. The responses to the 30 question True/False survey were used to evaluate the respondent’s empathy towards women, hostility towards women, and sexual aggression. Another research interest was …

Sensor Calibration Systems And Methods For Infrared Cameras, George Speake, Nuwan Nagahawatte, Richard M. Goeden, Ted Takagi, Robert Ernst, Gary B. Hughes, Joseph Kostrzewa, John Graff, Russell Granneman, Michael Kent, Neela Nalam, Stephen Lyon, Barbara Sharp, Pierre Boulanger, Neil Cuteliffe, Tim Martin, Ted Hoelter

Statistics

Systems and methods directed to calibration techniques for infrared cameras are disclosed for some embodiments. For example, a method of determining infrared sensor calibration information, in accordance with an embodiment, includes performing a calibration operation on an infrared sensor to obtain calibration information, wherein the infrared sensor is not within an infrared camera core, and storing the calibration information.

The Transient Optical Sky Survey Data Pipeline, Elena Hadjiyska, Gary B. Hughes, Philip Lubin, Scott Taylor, Rory Hartong-Redden, Joshua Zierten

Statistics

The Transient Optical Sky Survey (TOSS) is an automated, ground-based telescope system dedicated to searching for optical transient events. Small telescope tubes are mounted on a tracking, semi-equatorial frame with a single polar axis. Each fixed-declination telescope records successive exposures which overlap in right ascension. Nightly observations produce time-series images of fixed fields within each declination band. We describe the TOSS data pipeline, including automated routines used for image calibration, object detection and identification, astrometry, and differential photometry. Time series of nightly observations are accumulated in a database for each declination band. Despite the modest cost of the mechanical system, …

Investigation Of A Pregnancy Lifestyle Intervention Using Mediation Analysis And A Power Analysis Simulation, Kelsey Grantham

Statistics

No abstract provided.

An Analysis Of Risk Reduction Choices In Dcis Breast Cancer Patients, Lauren Soltesz

Statistics

The main focus of this paper was to evaluate possible demographic and clinical characteristics associated with a woman’s choice of breast conserving surgery (BCS), unilateral mastectomy (ULM), or bilateral risk reduction mastectomy (BRRM). The cohort consisted of patients presenting to the City of Hope National Medical Center with ductal carcinoma in situ breast cancer who elected to have cancer directed surgery (N=305). Analyses to examine associations of patient characteristics with type of surgery were conducted using a multinomial logistic regression. Results showed that older women were more likely to choose breast conserving surgery over bilateral risk reduction mastectomy than younger …

Analysis Of Alcohol Use Among Pregnant Women In San Luis Obispo County, Samantha Law

Statistics

Drinking alcohol during pregnancy is harmful to the fetus, and can lead to serious alcohol related developmental birth defects. Utilizing prenatal screening, such as the 4P’s Plus© screening tool, during a woman’s first prenatal doctors visit can help educate women and reduce continued alcohol use during pregnancy. Currently the CDC reports that 1 in 13 women in the US drink alcohol while pregnant compared to local reports that 1 in 3 women in San Luis Obispo County continue to drink alcohol during pregnancy. A primary concern for many local county health care experts and organizations is to raise awareness that …

Comparative Analysis Of Dispersion Parameter Estimates In Loglinear Modeling: Applied To E-Commerce Sales And Customer Data, Scott Davis

Statistics

When loglinear models are applied to count data the issue of over-dispersion often arises. Moment and maximum likelihood estimation methods in accounting for over-dispersion are widely used because they allow for model checking tools such as Chi-square, F, and likelihood ratio tests. Here is a comparison between R functions that each uses one method; glm.nb uses MLE, and glm.poisson.disp uses MME. The Index of Dissimilarity and visual model selection (ECDF plots) are also incorporated. These are applied to sales data using product and customer information compiled over the last five years that was generously provided by an e-commerce company.

Adaptive Randomization Designs, Jenna Colavincenzo

Statistics

Adaptive design methodologies use prior information to develop a clinical trial design. The goal of an adaptive design is to maintain the integrity and validity of the study while giving the researcher flexibility in identifying the optimal treatment. An example of an adaptive design can be seen in a basic pharmaceutical trial. There are three phases of the overall trial to compare treatments and experimenters use the information from the previous phase to make changes to the subsequent phase before it begins.

Adaptive design methods have been in practice since the 1970s, but have become increasingly complex ever since. One …

Analysis Of Dietary Patterns Over Freshman Year Of College, Chelsea Lofland

Statistics

This analysis is an investigation of changes in Cal Poly students’ eating habits over freshman year. The motivation behind this was an interest in college students’ lifestyles; college is the first time most students live on their own and it can be an important maturation period. College is stressful, exciting, liberating, and terrifying all at the same time. This distinctive life experience, along with my desire to handle big and messy data, led me to this research question.

The response variable analyzed was food consumption and the explanatory variables were: sex, race, quarter, food group, stress, exercise, BMI, sleep quality …

Predictors Of Hypertension And Prehypertension In Cal Poly Students, Toria Mock

Statistics

This study analyzed predictors of hypertension and prehypertension in Cal Poly students. Hypertension and prehypertension are known to increase the risk of blood clots, plaque buildup, and tissue/organ damage from blocked arteries. Researching predictors of hypertension and prehypertension can help to determine methods of minimizing the probability of hypertension and prehypertension in a patient. Data from the FLASH study was used to analyze associations between possible predictor variables, such as stress and physical activity, and hypertension/prehypertension. BMI, bodyfat, and the interaction between videogames per weekend day and gender were found to be significantly associated with hypertension and prehypertension in Cal …

Lifestyle Choices In Relation To Bmi And Blood Pressure, Shawna Perry

Statistics

Cal Poly currently has one of the largest ongoing university health studies in the United States. Launched in Fall 2009, the Cal Poly FLASH study, led by the Kinesiology department and STRIDE, is a longitudinal study that tracks the classes of 2013 and 2014 through online surveys and physical assessments. The data collected covers various areas such as perceived health, lifestyle choices, and actual physical health.

My project analyzed the FLASH data to investigate the relationship between various perceived variables and actual health measures for Cal Poly freshmen. The motivation for this analysis was an interest in both diet and …

Filtering Systems & Methods For Infrared Image Processing, Gary B. Hughes, Nicholas Högasten, Nuwan Nagahawatte

Statistics

Systems and methods are disclosed herein to provide filtering techniques for image processing applications. For example, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, a Median-X filtering algorithm is disclosed that may be used for various infrared image processing applications.

Analyzing Multiple Independent Spatial Point Processes, Neal Grantham

Statistics

No abstract provided.

Using The R Library Rpanel For Gui-Based Simulations In Introductory Statistics Courses, Ryan M. Allison

Statistics

As a student, I noticed that the statistical package R (http://www.r-project.org) would have several benefits of its usage in the classroom. One benefit to the package is its free and open-source nature. This would be a great benefit for instructors and students alike since it would be of no cost to use, unlike other statistical packages. Due to this, students could continue using the program after their statistical courses and into their professional careers. It would be good to expose students while they are in school to a tool that professionals use in industry. R also has powerful …