Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Physiological Health Parameters Among College Students To Promote Chronic Disease Prevention And Health Promotion, David R. Black, Daniel C. Coster, Samantha R. Paige

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

This study aimed to provide physiologic health risk parameters by gender and age among college students enrolled in a U.S. Midwestern University to promote chronic disease prevention and ameliorate health. A total of 2615 college students between 18 and 25 years old were recruited annually using a series of cross-sectional designs during the spring semester over an 8-year period. Physiologic parameters measured included body mass index (BMI), percentage body fat (%BF), blood serum cholesterol (BSC), and systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure. These measures were compared to data from NHANES to identify differences in physiologic parameters among 18-25 year …

Comparison Of Survival Curves Between Cox Proportional Hazards, Random Forests, And Conditional Inference Forests In Survival Analysis, Brandon Weathers

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Survival analysis methods are a mainstay of the biomedical fields but are finding increasing use in other disciplines including finance and engineering. A widely used tool in survival analysis is the Cox proportional hazards regression model. For this model, all the predicted survivor curves have the same basic shape, which may not be a good approximation to reality. In contrast the Random Survival Forests does not make the proportional hazards assumption and has the flexibility to model survivor curves that are of quite different shapes for different groups of subjects. We applied both techniques to a number of publicly available …

Statistical Methods For Assessing Individual Oocyte Viability Through Gene Expression Profiles, Michael O. Bishop

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Abstract

Statistical Methods for Assessing Individual Oocyte Viability Through Gene Expression Profiles

By

Michael O. Bishop

Utah State University, 2017

Major Professor: Dr. John R. Stevens

Department: Mathematics and Statistics

Oocytes are the precursor cells to the female gamete, or egg. While reproduction may vary from species to species, within humans and most domesticated animals, the oocyte maturation process is fairly similar. As an oocyte matures, there are various processes that take place, all of which have an effect on the viability of the individual oocyte. Barring outside damage that may come to the oocyte, one of the primary reasons …

A Comparison Of Statistical Methods Relating Pairwise Distance To A Binary Subject-Level Covariate, Rachael Stone

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

A community ecologist provided a motivating data set involving a certain animal species with two behavior groups, along with a pairwise genetic distance matrix among individuals. Many community ecologists have analyzed similar data sets with a method known as the Hopkins method, testing for an association between the subject-level covariate (behavior group) and the pairwise distance. This community ecologist wanted to know if they used the Hopkins method, would their results be meaningful? Their question inspired this thesis work, where a different data set was used for confidentiality reasons. Multiple methods (Hopkins method, ADONIS, ANOSIM, and Distance Regression) were used …

Telephone Polls And Pps Sampling: A Potential Boon To The Polling Industry, Jade Mckay Burt

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

In the wake of the 2016 election, the polling industry has no shortage of critics. While these are difficult times for the industry as a whole, there are exciting innovations happening that will serve to benefit and revitalize the industry for years. One of these exciting innovations is Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) sampling. I will elaborate on what PPS sampling is and provide a mathematical foundation for its use in polling. I also discuss what some of the myriad of issues plaguing the polling industry are and then show how PPS sampling can be used to remedy many of …

A Tournament Approach To Price Discovery In The Us Cattle Market, Jeffrey Wright

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Cattle price discovery is a process of determining the price in the market through the interactions of cattle buyers (packers) and sellers (ranchers). Locating the price discovery center or market, and estimating price interactions among the regional fed cattle markets and also among feeder cattle markets can help define a relevant fed cattle procurement market. This research identifies that the U.S. cattle markets is discovered in the futures markets, feeder cattle futures and fed futures.

Combinatorial Games On Graphs, Trevor K. Williams

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Combinatorial Games are intriguing and have a tendency to engross students and lead them into a serious study of mathematics. The engaging nature of games is the basis for this thesis. Two combinatorial games and some educational tools are presented which were developed by the author in the pursuit of the solution of these games.

Regime Switching In Cointegrated Time Series, Bradley David Zynda Ii

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

Volatile commodities and markets can often be difficult to model and forecast given significant breaks in trends through time. To account such breaks, regime switching methods allow for models to accommodate abrupt changes in behavior of the data. However, the difficulty often arises in beginning the process of choosing a model and its associated parameters with which to represent the data and the objects of interest. To improve model selection for these volatile markets, this research examines time series with regime switching components and argues that a synthesis of vector error correction models with regime switching models with ameliorate financial …

Mass Action In Two-Sex Population Models: Encounters, Mating Encounters And The Associated Numerical Correction, Katherine Snyder, Brynja R. Kohler, Luis F. Gordillo

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

Ideal gas models are a paradigm used in Biology for the phenomenological modelling of encounters between individuals of different types. These models have been used to approximate encounter rates given densities, velocities and distance within which an encounter certainly occurs. When using mass action in two-sex populations, however, it is necessary to recognize the difference between encounters and mating encounters. While the former refers in general to the (possibly simultaneous) collisions between particles, the latter represents pair formation that will produce offspring. The classical formulation of the law of mass action does not account this difference. In this short paper, …

Case Study For Guided Project In Stochastic Hydrology, Meghna Babbar-Sebens

All ECSTATIC Materials

Attached are two guided project activities for hydrology and climate data of Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana, USA. The zip files have flow and precipitation datasets at daily, monthly, and annual time scales.

Tutorial For Using The Center For High Performance Computing At The University Of Utah And An Example Using Random Forest, Stephen Barton

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Random Forests are very memory intensive machine learning algorithms and most computers would fail at building models from datasets with millions of observations. Using the Center for High Performance Computing (CHPC) at the University of Utah and an airline on-time arrival dataset with 7 million observations from the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics we built 316 models by adjusting the depth of the trees and randomness of each forest and compared the accuracy and time each took. Using this dataset we discovered that substantial restrictions to the size of trees, observations allowed for each tree, and variables …

Managing The Spread Of Alfalfa Stem Nematodes (Ditylenchus Dipsaci): The Relationship Between Crop Rotation Periods And Pest Re-Emergence, S. Jordan, Claudia Nischwitz, R. Ramirez, Luis F. Gordillo

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

Alfalfa is a critical cash/rotation crop in the western region of the United States, where it is common to find crops affected by the alfalfa stem nematode (Ditylenchus dipsaci). Understanding the spread dynamics associated with this pest would allow growers to design better management programs and farming practices. This understanding is of particular importance given that there are no nematicides available against alfalfa stem nematodes and control strategies largely rely on crop rotation to non-host crops or by planting resistant varieties of alfalfa. In this paper we present a basic host-parasite model that describes the spread of the …

How The Magnitude Of Prey Genetic Variation Alters Predator-Prey Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics, Michael H. Cortez

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

Evolution can alter the stability and dynamics of ecological communities; for example, prey evolution can drive cyclic dynamics in predator-prey systems that are not possible in the absence of evolution. However, it is unclear how the magnitude of additive genetic variation in the evolving species mediates those effects. In this study, I explore how the magnitude of prey additive genetic variation determines what effects prey evolution has on the dynamics and stability of predator-prey systems. I use linear stability analysis to decompose the stability of a general eco-evolutionary predator-prey model into components representing the stabilities of the ecological and evolutionary …

The Eyes Have It: Eye Tracking Data Visualizations Of Viewing Patterns Of Statistical Graphics, Trent Fawcett

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

As statistical graphics continue to expand to manage an ever growing amount of diverse data, a need to evaluate the effectiveness of graphics, both basic and complex, has arisen. Technological advancements have given a means to evaluate the effectiveness of graphs and graphical components through eye tracking systems. Eye tracking systems are likewise in need of software that will enable easy evaluation and exploration of data. The focus of this Master's Report is to evaluate the dual solution. An exploration of an eye tracker setup is made, with extensive consideration of testing statistical graphics providing a basis for continued research …

Separation Of Points And Interval Estimation In Mixed Dose-Response Curves With Selective Component Labeling, Darl D. Flake Ii

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Dose-response experiments are those that involve giving subjects different amounts of a treatment and observing the outcome. For example, plants may be given fertilizer and their growth could be measured or cancer patients could be given different doses of chemotherapy and their response could be monitored. These experiments are used to understand the relationship between the amount of, and response to, the treatment. Logistic regression models are often used to summarize data from these types of experiments. The dose-response experiment that motivated this dissertation involved treating a grain-pest with a pesticide. Some of the beetles had genes that made them …

To Dot Product Graphs And Beyond, Sean Bailey

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

We will introduce three new vector representations of graphs. These representations are based on relationships between the vectors that are used. Specifically, we will examine scenarios where we ignore specific relationships, where we consider if information is missing, and where we look for when the information in common is not of a specified amount.

Bayesian Models For Repeated Measures Data Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods, Yuanzhi Li

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Bayesian models for repeated measures data are fitted to three different data an analysis projects. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology is applied to each case with Gibbs sampling and/or an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm used to simulate the posterior distribution of parameters. We implement a Bayesian model with different variance-covariance structures to an audit fee data set. Block structures and linear models for variances are used to examine the linear trend and different behaviors before and after regulatory change during year 2004-2005. We proposed a Bayesian hierarchical model with latent teacher effects, to determine whether teacher professional development (PD) …

Sexual Assault And The Doctrine Of Chances In The Courtroom, Ryan Wallentine

Research on Capitol Hill

Sexual assault can have devastating and long-lasting effects on victims, but many assailants get away with their crime without being prosecuted.

The doctrine of chances is a rule of evidence allowing evidences of past crimes, wrongs, or acts to show it is unlikely a defendant would be repeatedly and innocently involved in similar, suspicious circumstances.

Given that about 63.3% of assailants are repeat offenders, the doctrine of chances could effectively be used in sexual assault cases.

The main objective is to determine a precise probabilistic threshold for allowing the use of the doctrine of chances in sexual assault cases such …

Interdisciplinary Modeling For Water-Related Issues Graduate Course, Laurel Saito, Alexander Fernald, Timothy Link

All ECSTATIC Materials

The science and management of aquatic ecosystems is inherently interdisciplinary, with issues associated with hydrology, atmospheric science, water quality, geochemistry, sociology, economics, environmental science, and ecology. Addressing water resources issues in any one discipline invariably involves effects that concern other disciplines, and attempts to address one issue often have consequences that exacerbate existing issues or concerns, or create new ones (Jørgensen et al. 1992; Lackey et al. 1975; Straskraba 1994) due to the strongly interactive nature of key processes (Christensen et al. 1996). Thus, research and management of aquatic ecosystems must be interdisciplinary to be most effective, but such truly …

Survival Analysis For Truncated Data And Competing Risks, Michael Steelman

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The purpose of this project is to consider the problems of left truncation and competing risks in analyzing censored survival data, and to compare and contrast various approaches for handling these problems. The motivation for this work comes from an analysis of data from the Cache County Memory Study. Study investigators were interested in the association between early-life psychologically stressful events (e.g., parental or sibling death, or parental divorce, among others) and late-life risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). While conventional methods for censored survival data can be applied, the presence of left truncation and competing risks (i.e., other adverse events …

Comparing Linear Mixed Models To Meta-Regression Analysis In The Greenville Air Quality Study, Lynsie M. Daley

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The effect of air quality on public health is an important issue in need of better understanding. There are many stakeholders, especially in Utah and Cache Valley, where the poor air quality as measured by PM 2.5 levels and consequent inversions can sometimes be the very worst in the nation. This project focuses on comparing two statistical methods used to analyze an important air quality data set from the Greenville Air Quality Study, focusing on a lung function response variable. A linear mixed model, with a random factor for subject, gives slope estimates and their significance for predictor variables of …

Modeling Seed Dispersal And Population Migration Given A Distribution Of Seed Handling Times And Variable Dispersal Motility: Case Study For Pinyon And Juniper In Utah, Ram C. Neupane

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The spread of fruiting tree species is strongly determined by the behavior and range of fruit-eating animals, particularly birds. Birds either consume and digest seeds or carry and cache them at some distance from the source tree. These carried and settled seeds provide some form of distribution which generates tree spread to the new location. Firstly, we modal seed dispersal by birds and introduce it in a dispersal model to estimate seed distribution. Using this distribution, we create a population model to estimate the speed at which juniper and pinyon forest boundaries move.

Secondly, we introduce a fact that bird …

Annotation Tools For Multivariate Gene Set Testing Of Non-Model Organisms, Russell K. Banks

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Microarray chip technology enables researchers to obtain measures of gene activity for essentially all genes in an organism. After grouping genes into biologically meaningful sets, researchers employ certain statistical tests to identify which gene sets (biological processes) show different levels of activity across different treatment groups. The idea is to identify which biological processes are significantly affected by a certain treatment/condition in a given organism.

Non-model organisms (such as sheep) are not widely studied so gene set membership information is not always readily accessible. This thesis work utilizes two microarray studies involving sheep to provide researchers with working examples of …

The Game Of Thrones: A Study Of Power Networks And How They Change, Trevor Williams

Research on Capitol Hill

No abstract provided.

Individual-Based Modeling: Mountain Pine Beetle Seasonal Biology In Response To Climate, Jacques Regniere, Barbara J. Bentz, James A. Powell, Remi St-Amant

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

Over the past decades, as significant advances were made in the availability and accessibility of computing power, individual-based models (IBM) have become increasingly appealing to ecologists (Grimm 1999). The individual-based modeling approachprovides a convenient framework to incorporate detailed knowledge of individuals and of their interactions within populations (Lomnicki 1999). Variability among individuals is essential to the success of populations that are exposed to changing environments, and because natural selection acts on this variability, it is an essential component of population performance. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015.

Visualizing And Forecasting Box-Office Revenues: A Case Study Of The James Bond Movie Series, Vahan Petrosyan

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This Master's report deals with the visualization and forecasting of the box-office revenues and some related variables from the James Bond movie Series. Visualization techniques such as time series plots, scatterplot matrices, dotplots, boxplots, histograms, normal quantile plots, parallel coordinates plots, heatmaps, mosaic plots, association plots, and choropleth maps are used to provide some deeper insights into the given dataset. Additionally, the results from an article published in 1997 are reproduced and extended. This article modeled the box-office revenues of the James Bond movie series. Numerous statistical models were examined to obtain the models that are closest to the original …

Family-Wise Error Rate Control In Quantitative Trait Loci (Qtl) Mapping And Gene Ontology Graphs With Remarks On Family Selection, Garrett Saunders

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

One of the great aims of statistics, the science of collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data, is to protect against the probability of falsely rejecting an accepted claim, or hypothesis, given observed data stemming from some experiment. This is generally known as protecting against a Type I Error, or controlling the Type I Error rate. The extension of this protection against Type I Errors to the situation where thousands upon thousands of hypotheses are examined simultaneously is known as multiple hypothesis testing. This dissertation presents an improvement to an existing multiple hypothesis testing approach, the Focus Level method, specific to gene …

Mvgst: Tools For Multivariate And Directional Gene Set Testing, Dennis S. Mecham

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

There are many platforms available for simultaneously measuring the relative activity, or expression, levels of all genes in an organism. Genes that have systematically dier- ent expression levels between experimental factor levels are called \dierentially expressed". Because genes are annotated based on their known roles in biological processes (BP), molec- ular functions (MF) and cellular components (CC), gene expression levels can be used to determine relative activity levels of individual BP, MF, or CC between experimental fac- tor levels (this is called gene set testing). Often multiple experimental dierences are of interest simultaneously, which necessitates multivariate gene set testing. Only …

Modeling Asset Volatility Using Various Resources, Isaac G. Blackhurst

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Volatility is of central interest in modern financial econometrics. This thesis evaluates three different methods of measuring volatility.

Lifetime Modeling Of Deficient Bridges In New York, Levi Phippen

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Given the importance of bridges to a state's economy and strength, and the costs involved in building and maintaining bridges, maximizing their service life is essential. In order to safely extend a bridge's utility as long as possible, an understanding of its lifetime processes is needed. This paper attempts to model the lifetime of a bridge in New York once it has become deficient. Lifetime is defined to be the length of time between deficiency classification and failure. A bridge is considered deficient when certain structural components receive a poor rating in the National Bridge Inventory, which is compiled annually …