Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Sinkhole Vulnerability Mapping: Results From A Pilot Study In North Central Florida, Clint Kromhout, Alan E. Baker

Sinkhole Conference 2015

At the end of June in 2012, Tropical Storm Debby dropped a record amount of rainfall across Florida which triggered hundreds, if not thousands, of sinkholes to form which resulted in tremendous damage to property. The Florida Division of Emergency Management contracted with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s Florida Geological Survey to produce a map depicting the state’s vulnerability to sinkhole formation. The three-year project began with a pilot study in three northern Florida counties: Columbia, Hamilton and Suwannee. Utilizing the statistical modeling method Weights of Evidence, results from the pilot study yielded a 93 percent success rate of …

Bayesian Inference On Longitudinal Semi-Continuous Substance Abuse/Dependence Symptoms Data, Dongyuan Xing

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Substance use data such as alcohol drinking often contain a high proportion of zeros. In studies examining the alcohol consumption in college students, for instance, many students may not drink in the studied period, resulting in a number of zeros. Zero-inflated continuous data, also called semi continuous data, typically consist of a mixture of a degenerate distribution at the origin (zero) and a right-skewed, continuous distribution for the positive values. Ignoring the extreme non-normality in semi-continuous data may lead to substantially biased estimates and inference. Longitudinal or repeated measures of semi-continuous data present special challenges in statistical inference because of …

Review Of Developing Quantitative Literacy Skills In History And The Social Sciences: A Web-Based Common Core Approach By Kathleen W. Craver, Victor J. Ricchezza, H L. Vacher

Numeracy

Kathleen W. Craver. Developing Quantitative Literacy Skills in History and Social Sciences: A Web-Based Common Core Standards Approach (Lantham MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc., 2014). 191 pp.
ISBN 978-1-4758-1050-9 (cloth); ISBN …-1051-6 (pbk); ISBN…-1052-3 (electronic).

This book could be a breakthrough for teachers in the trenches who are interested in or need to know about quantitative literacy (QL). It is a resource providing 85 topical pieces, averaging 1.5 pages, in which a featured Web site is presented, described, and accompanied by 2-4 critical-thinking questions purposefully drawing on data from the Web site. The featured Web sites range from …

The Levels Of Conceptual Understanding In Statistics (Locus) Project: Results Of The Pilot Study, Douglas Whitaker, Steven Foti, Tim Jacobbe

Numeracy

The Levels of Conceptual Understanding in Statistics (LOCUS) project (NSF DRL-111868) has created assessments that measure conceptual (rather than procedural) understanding of statistics as outlined in GAISE Framework (Franklin et al., 2007, Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education, American Statistical Association). Here we provide a brief overview of the LOCUS project and present results from multiple-choice items on the pilot administration of the assessments with data collected from over 3400 students in grades 6-12 across six states. These results help illustrate students’ understanding of statistical topics prior to the implementation of the Common Core State Standards. Using the …

Review Of Naked Statistics: Stripping The Dread From Data By Charles Wheelan, Michael T. Catalano

Numeracy

Wheelan, Charles. Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from Data (New York, NY, W. W. Norton & Company, 2014). 282 pp. ISBN 978-0-393-07195-5

In his review of What Numbers Say and The Numbers Game, Rob Root (Numeracy 3(1): 9) writes “Popular books on quantitative literacy need to be easy to read, reasonably comprehensive in scope, and include examples that are thought-provoking and memorable.” Wheelan’s book certainly meets this description, and should be of interest to both the general public and those with a professional interest in numeracy. A moderately diligent learner can get a decent understanding of basic statistics …

Patient Populations, Clinical Associations, And System Efficiency In Healthcare Delivery System, Yazhuo Liu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The efforts to improve health care delivery usually involve studies and analysis of patient populations and healthcare systems. In this dissertation, I present the research conducted in the following areas: identifying patient groups, improving treatments for specific conditions by using statistical as well as data mining techniques, and developing new operation research models to increase system efficiency from the health institutes’ perspective. The results provide better understanding of high risk patient groups, more accuracy in detecting disease’ correlations and practical scheduling tools that consider uncertain operation durations and real-life constraints.

Statistical Learning With Artificial Neural Network Applied To Health And Environmental Data, Taysseer Sharaf

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The current study illustrates the utilization of artificial neural network in statistical methodology. More specifically in survival analysis and time series analysis, where both holds an important and wide use in many applications in our real life. We start our discussion by utilizing artificial neural network in survival analysis. In literature there exist two important methodology of utilizing artificial neural network in survival analysis based on discrete survival time method. We illustrate the idea of discrete survival time method and show how one can estimate the discrete model using artificial neural network. We present a comparison between the two methodology …

Statistical Modeling And Prediction Of Hiv/Aids Prognosis: Bayesian Analyses Of Nonlinear Dynamic Mixtures, Xiaosun Lu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Statistical analyses and modeling have contributed greatly to our understanding of the pathogenesis of HIV-1 infection; they also provide guidance for the treatment of AIDS patients and evaluation of antiretroviral (ARV) therapies. Various statistical methods, nonlinear mixed-effects models in particular, have been applied to model the CD4 and viral load trajectories. A common assumption in these methods is all patients come from a homogeneous population following one mean trajectories. This assumption unfortunately obscures important characteristic difference between subgroups of patients whose response to treatment and whose disease trajectories are biologically different. It also may lack the robustness against population heterogeneity …

An Evaluation Of Florida Gulf Coast University's Residence Life Staff Member's Hurricane Preparedness, Erin Floto

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) is located along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in southern Florida, in an area vulnerable to hurricane strikes. At FGCU, The Office of Housing and Residence Life (OHRL) is responsible for three locations on- and off-campus where students reside in apartment or suite-style housing. Due to the large number of students with varying backgrounds, the OHRL staff members have become essential personnel during severe weather events that may cause safety concerns for the residents living in OHRL housing locations. This study's purpose is to assess the Residence Life staff on their level of …

Stochastic Modeling And Analysis Of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes, Olusegun Michael Otunuga

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Supply and demand in the World oil market are balanced through responses to price movement with considerable complexity in the evolution of underlying supply-demand

expectation process. In order to be able to understand the price balancing process, it is important to know the economic forces and the behavior of energy commodity spot price processes. The relationship between the different energy sources and its utility together with uncertainty also play a role in many important energy issues.

The qualitative and quantitative behavior of energy commodities in which the trend in price of one commodity coincides with the trend in price of …

Trend Analysis And Modeling Of Health And Environmental Data: Joinpoint And Functional Approach, Ram C. Kafle

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The present study is divided into two parts: the first is on developing the statistical analysis and modeling of mortality (or incidence) trends using Bayesian joinpoint regression and the second is on fitting differential equations from time series data to derive the rate of change of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Joinpoint regression model identifies significant changes in the trends of the incidence, mortality, and survival of a specific disease in a given population. Bayesian approach of joinpoint regression is widely used in modeling statistical data to identify the points in the trend where the significant changes occur. The purpose …

Statistical Analysis, Modeling, And Algorithms For Pharmaceutical And Cancer Systems, Bong-Jin Choi

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The aim of the present study is to develop a statistical algorithm and model associ- ated with breast and lung cancer patients. In this study, we developed several statistical softwares, R packages, and models using our new statistical approach.

In the present study, we used the five parameters logistic model for determining the optimal doses of a pharmaceutical drugs, including dynamic initial points, an automatic process for outlier detection and an algorithm that develops a graphic user interface(GUI) program. The developed statistical procedure assists medical scientists by reducing their time in determining the optimal dose of new drugs, and can …

Probabilistic Modeling Of Lava Flows: A Hazard Assessment For The San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, Aleeza Harburger

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study serves as a first step towards a comprehensive hazard assessment for the San Francisco volcanic field in northern Arizona, which can be applied to local response plans and educational initiatives. The primary goal of this thesis is to resolve the conditional probability that, given a lava flow effusing from a new vent in the San Francisco volcanic field, it will inundate the city limits of Flagstaff. The spatial distribution of vents within the San Francisco volcanic field was analyzed in order to execute a lava flow simulation to determine the inundation hazard to Flagstaff. The Gaussian kernel function …

A Monte Carlo Study: The Consequences Of The Misspecification Of The Level-1 Error Structure, Merlande Petit-Bois

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Single-case interventions allow for the repeated measurement of a case or participant across multiple time points, to assess the treatment¡͞s effect on one specific case or participant. The basic interrupted time series design includes two phases: baseline and treatment. Raudenbush and Byrk (2002) demonstrated that a meta-analysis of large group designs can be seen as a special case of multi-level analysis with participants (level-one) nested within studies (level-two). Raw data from a set of single case design studies have a similar structure. Van den Noortgate and Onghena (2003) illustrated the use of a two-level model to analyze data in primary …

Location And Capacity Modeling Of Network Interchanges, Aldo D. Fabregas

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Network design decisions, especially those pertaining to urban infrastructure, are made by a central authority or network leader, and taking into consideration the network users or followers. These network decision problems are formulated as non-linear bi-level programming problems. In this work, a continuous network design problem (CNDP) and discrete network design problem (DNDP) bi-level optimization programs are proposed and solved in the context of transportation planning. The solution strategy involved reformulation and linearization as a single-level program by introducing the optimality conditions of the lower level problem into the upper level problem. For the CNDP, an alternative linearization algorithm (modified …

Bayesian Estimation Of Panel Data Fractional Response Models With Endogeneity: An Application To Standardized Test Rates, Lawrence Kessler

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In this paper I propose Bayesian estimation of a nonlinear panel data model with a fractional dependent variable (bounded between 0 and 1). Specifically, I estimate a panel data fractional probit model which takes into account the bounded nature of the fractional response variable. I outline estimation under the assumption of strict exogeneity as well as when allowing for potential endogeneity. Furthermore, I illustrate how transitioning from the strictly exogenous case to the case of endogeneity only requires slight adjustments. For comparative purposes I also estimate linear specifications of these models and show how quantities of interest such as marginal …

Statistical Topics Applied To Pressure And Temperature Readings In The Gulf Of Mexico, Malena Kathleen Allison

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The field of statistical research in weather allows for the application of old and new methods, some of which may describe relationships between certain variables better such as temperatures and pressure. The objective of this study was to apply a variety of traditional and novel statistical methods to analyze data from the National Data Buoy Center, which records among other variables barometric pressure, atmospheric temperature, water temperature and dew point temperature. The analysis included attempts to better describe and model the data as well as to make estimations for certain variables. The following statistical methods were utilized: linear regression, non-response …

Effectiveness Of Propensity Score Methods In A Multilevel Framework: A Monte Carlo Study, Aarti P. Bellara

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Propensity score analysis has been used to minimize the selection bias in observational studies to identify causal relationships. A propensity score is an estimate of an individual's probability of being placed in a treatment group given a set of covariates. Propensity score analysis aims to use the estimate to create balanced groups, akin to a randomized experiment. This study used Monte Carlo methods to examine the appropriateness of using propensity score methods to achieve balance between groups on observed covariates and reproduce treatment effect estimates in multilevel studies. Specifically, this study examined the extent to which four different propensity score …

Uncontrolled Hypertension And Associated Factors In Hypertensive Patients At The Primary Healthcare Center Luis H. Moreno, Panama: A Feasibility Study, Roderick Ramon Chen Camano

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Background: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), renal impairment, peripheral vascular disease, and blindness. In Panama, a recent study estimated the prevalence of hypertension at 38.5% in the two main provinces of the country, with a rate of uncontrolled hypertension of 47.2%.

Objectives: The aims of this study were to assess the feasibility of the study design and to describe the characteristics of the hypertensive population and the physician's adherence to Panamanian antihypertensive protocols and their relationship with uncontrolled hypertension.

Methods: This is a cross-sectional study of adult hypertensive …

Multiple Calibrations In Integrative Data Analysis: A Simulation Study And Application To Multidimensional Family Therapy, Kristin Wynn Hall

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

A recent advancement in statistical methodology, Integrative Data Analyses (IDA Curran & Hussong, 2009) has led researchers to employ a calibration technique as to not violate an independence assumption. This technique uses a randomly selected, simplified correlational structured subset, or calibration, of a whole data set in a preliminary stage of analysis. However, a single calibration estimator suffers from instability, low precision and loss of power. To overcome this limitation, a multiple calibration (MC; Greenbaum et al., 2013; Wang et al., 2013) approach has been developed to produce better estimators, while still removing a level of dependency in the data …

A Latent Mixture Approach To Modeling Zero-Inflated Bivariate Ordinal Data, Rajendra Kadel

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Multivariate ordinal response data, such as severity of pain, degree of disability, and satisfaction with a healthcare provider, are prevalent in many areas of research including public health, biomedical, and social science research. Ignoring the multivariate features of the response variables, that is, by not taking the correlation between the errors across models into account, may lead to substantially biased estimates and inference. In addition, such multivariate ordinal outcomes frequently exhibit a high percentage of zeros (zero inflation) at the lower end of the ordinal scales, as compared to what is expected under a multivariate ordinal distribution. Thus, zero inflation …

Tracking Atlantic Hurricanes Using Statistical Methods, Elizabeth Caitlin Miller

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Creating an accurate hurricane location forecasting model is of the utmost importance because of the safety measures that need to occur in the days and hours leading up to a storm's landfall. Hurricanes can be incredibly deadly and costly, but if people are given adequate warning, many lives can be spared. This thesis seeks to develop an accurate model for predicting storm location based on previous location, previous wind speed, and previous pressure. The models are developed using hurricane data from 1980-2009.

Statistical Analysis And Modeling Of Brain Tumor Data: Histology And Regional Effects, Keshav Prasad Pokhrel

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Comprehensive statistical models for non-normally distributed cancerous tumor sizes are

of prime importance in epidemiological studies, whereas a long term forecasting models

can facilitate in reducing complications and uncertainties of medical progress. The statistical

forecasting models are critical for a better understanding of the disease and supply

appropriate treatments. In addition such a model can be used for the allocations of budgets,

planning, control and evaluations of ongoing efforts of prevention and early detection of

the diseases.

In the present study, we investigate the effects of age, demography, and race on primary

brain tumor sizes using quantile regression methods to …

Optimization In Non-Parametric Survival Analysis And Climate Change Modeling, Iuliana Teodorescu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Many of the open problems of current interest in probability and statistics involve complicated data

sets that do not satisfy the strong assumptions of being independent and identically distributed. Often,

the samples are known only empirically, and making assumptions about underlying parametric

distributions is not warranted by the insufficient information available. Under such circumstances,

the usual Fisher or parametric Bayes approaches cannot be used to model the data or make predictions.

However, this situation is quite often encountered in some of the main challenges facing statistical,

data-driven studies of climate change, clinical studies, or financial markets, to name a few. …

Statistical Analysis And Modeling Of Prostate Cancer, Yiu Ming Chan

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The objective of the present study is to address some important questions related to prostate cancer treatments and survivorship among White and African American men. It is commonly understood that the risk of developing prostate cancer is higher in African American men than the other races. However, using parametric analysis, this study demonstrates that this perception is a "myth" not a "reality". The study further identifies the existence of racial/ethnic disparities by comparing the average mean tumor size, the median of survival time, and the survival function between White and African American men. These results underline the necessity of understanding …

A Monte Carlo Approach To Change Point Detection In A Liver Transplant, Alexia Melissa Makris

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Patient survival post liver transplant (LT) is important to both the patient and the center's accreditation, but over the years physicians have noticed that distant patients struggle with post LT care. I hypothesized that patient's distance from the transplant center had a detrimental effect on post LT survival. I suspected Hepatitis C (HCV) and Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) patients would deteriorate due to their recurrent disease and there is a need for close monitoring post LT. From the current literature it was not clear if patients' distance from a transplant center affects outcomes post LT. Firozvi et al. (Firozvi AA, 2008) …

Age Dependent Analysis And Modeling Of Prostate Cancer Data, Nana Osei Mensa Bonsu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Growth rate of prostate cancer tumor is an important aspect of understanding the natural history of prostate cancer. Using real prostate cancer data from the SEER database with tumor size as a response variable, we have clustered the cancerous tumor sizes into age groups to enhance its analytical behavior. The rate of change of the response variable as a function of age is given for each cluster. Residual analysis attests to the quality of the analytical model and the subject estimates. In addition, we have identified the probability distribution that characterize the behavior of the response variable and proceeded with …

The Positive Illusory Bias And Adhd Symptoms: A New Measurement Approach, Sarah A. Fefer

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of academic and social competence among adolescents with a continuum of inattentive and hyperactive/impulsive symptoms. Past literature suggests that children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) display self-perceptions that are overly positive compared to external indicators of competence, a phenomenon that is referred to as the positive illusory bias (PIB; Owens, Goldfine, Evangelista, Hoza, & Kaiser, 2007). The PIB is well supported among children with ADHD, and recent research suggests that the PIB persists into adolescence. To date, research on the PIB has relied on difference scores (i.e., an indicator of competence is …

Measuring Technical Efficiency Of The Japanese Professional Football (Soccer) League (J1 And J2), Dan Zhao

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This is the first paper to measure the efficiency of the Japan Professional Football League clubs both the first and the second divisions. In Chapter 1, a non-parametric method Data Envelopment Development (DEA) is used and the data covers six seasons from 2005 to 2010. The input variables are payroll, cost besides payroll, and total assets. The output variables are attendance, revenue, and points awarded. I use different output combinations in order to check the sensitivity of the efficiency of the clubs after the original composition. This is also the first research to include more than one division of the …

Linear Mixed-Effects Models: Applications To The Behavioral Sciences And Adolescent Community Health, Lizmarie Gabriela Maldonado

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Linear mixed-effects (LME) modeling is a widely used statistical method for analyzing repeated measures or longitudinal data. Such longitudinal studies typically aim to investigate and describe the trajectory of a desired outcome. Longitudinal data have the advantage over cross-sectional data by providing more accuracy for the model. LME models allow researchers to account for random variation among individuals and between individuals.

In this project, adolescent health was chosen as a topic of research due to the many changes that occur during this crucial time period as a precursor to overall well-being in adult life. Understanding the factors that influence how …