Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Session 2-1-E: Betting Market Efficiency Implications Of Different Structures: Bookmakers Vs. Exchanges, David Mcdonald, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, John Peirson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Outline

(i) Quick definition of market efficiency

(ii) Theoretical models lead to general predictions…

(iii) ...which lead to specific predictions about betting markets

(iv) Results of testing the predictions using real betting market data

(v) Implications and conclusion

Session 2-1-A: A Longitudinal Study Of Alberta Electronic Machine Gamblers, Garry Smith, Nady El-Guebaly, David Casey, David Hodgins, Rob Williams, Don Schopflocher

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Outline of the LLLP

What is the LLLP?

Launched in 2006 the LLLP is a five age cohort, four data collection wave longitudinal study that examines the incidence and determinants of gambling and problem gambling. The study was guided by four broad research questions:

1.What are the normal patterns of continuity and discontinuity in gambling and problem gambling behavior?

2.What bio-psychological variables and behavior patterns are most predictive of current and future responsible and problem gambling?

3.Are there distinct sub-groupings of gamblers and problem gamblers with different trajectories and predictors?

4.What etiological model of problem gambling is best supported by …

Session 2-1-E: Toward An Understanding Of Price Movements In Betting Markets: Profitable Trading Against The Herd, Johnnie E.V. Johnson, Ming-Chien Sung, David C.J. Mcdonald

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Efficient Market Hypothesis

Markets for speculative assets always fully incorporate relevant information in prices

Herding

Participants neglect private info, adjust actionsmore representative of previous price movements

Effect

Price volatility in excess of variations in fundament d informationBubbles, crashes and bank runs

Session 2-1-B: Gaming Regulators Africa, Linda E. De Vries

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary school education

Goal 3: Promote gender equity and empower women

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Goal 5: Stimulate entrepreneurship (SMME; development)

Session 2-1-B: A Mandate For Business Leadership: The Case Of Regulated Gambling In South Africa, Linda E. De Vries

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

South African agenda - shaped by developmental agenda

Comply with global movement on environmental issues

Global Economic melt down

Political wide spread change – 1994-2013

Strong philosophical orientation i.e. cost/benefit vs. tangible /intangible costs/benefits consumption model (De Vries- 1991)

Caution on becoming a gambling dependant nation

Purpose to legalise but not aggressive - consumption model (NGB Act 1996 /amended NGB Act 2004)

Private enterprise be allowed within tight regulatory framework

National lottery- good causes - aggressive –state benefit (NLB Act 2001) Normalisation of society with shift in priorities of the democracy

New formulations of Economic black EMPOWERMENT such as BRICS …

Session 2-1-C: Gambling Distortions And The Brain Reward System, Luke Clark

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Impulsive choice in PG as possible index of vmPFC dysfunction

Functional imaging of gambling near-misses

Gambling distortions following brain injury (ventromedial PFC vs insula damage)

Session 1-4-A: Results From The Swedish Longitudinal Gambling Study (Swelogs): Changes Between 1998, 2009, And 2010, Ula Romild, Jessika Svensson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Public Health Objectives

1. The overarching aim of Sweden’s national public health policy is to create social conditions that will ensure good health, on equal terms for the entire population.

2. The aim for society’s measures against problem gambling is to reduce harm from exaggerated gambling.

Session 1-4-D: Leading Together: The Evolution Of Responsible Gambling In Canada, Jim Engel, Paul Pellizzari, Paul W. Smith

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Agenda

Background: Gambling in Canada
Responsible Gambling Framework
The notion of “player sustainability”
Video Lottery Terminals (VLTs)
Internet gambling
Branding RG
Data analytics
Voluntary Self-Exclusion
RG Standards
Leading together: collaboration across jurisdictions

Session 1-4-A: Comparing Longitudinal Studies Of Gambling: Methods & Findin, Rachel A. Volberg

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

What do we know about risk factors for PG?

Vast majority of research carried out on PG risk factors has involved cross-sectional surveys

PG status at a single point in time statistically correlated with behaviors & characteristics assessed at the same time

Cannot resolve the “chicken and egg” problem

• Does PG precede other disorders?
• Do other disorders precede PG?
• Or does one underlying condition account for both?

Session 1-4-A: Pathways Of Gambling Problem Severity: Follow-Up From A General Population Survey, Sylvia Kairouz, Christelle Luce

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Study objectives

Describe trajectories of change in gambling patterns and problems among a cohort of gamblers;

Model change over time based on life events.

Session 1-4-B: Gambling And Marijuana Use In The Netherlands: Is Legalization The Best Tool For Dealing With "Naughty Habits?", William N. Thompson, Laura K. Thompson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In 1976, the Netherlands embraced two policy initiatives which encompassed similar objectives. The policies sought to control “undesired substances” via the process of legalization. One legalization process involved casino gambling. The policies have sometimes led to desired results (the right road), while at other times they have led to undesirable results (the wrong road). Now in 2013, without an observable crossroad or even fork in the road, The Netherlands is poised to deviate from a right road to travel down a wrong road by placing rather severe restrictions upon the operations of “Coffee Houses” which have been “serving” customers measured …

Session 1-3-E: Hitting The Sweet Spot: Lottery Promotion And Vulnerability, Elisabeth Papineau, Jean-François Biron, Fanny Lemetayer, Amadou Barry

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Literature about lottery marketing and vulnerability

Lottery advertising in Quebec

Project phases

Results

Conclusion

Session 1-3-F: The Victorian Gambling Study Identifying And Predicting Risks, Rosa Billi

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Overview

Background

Study design

• Incidence
• Transitions
• Risk & protective
• Co morbidities

Session 1-2-F: Sports As An Alternative Asset Class: Gambling As An Investment, Brendan Poots

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Genesis of the idea came in 2007 in NYC when studying at Columbia. The trading of sports utilising strategies and other traditional financial market practices was identified as a burgeoning opportunity.

Towards the end of 2007 a private Fund with owner’s capital was started.

Global Financial Crisis in 2008 – all asset classes lost value. Diversification did not work. The Olympics, the Superbowl, the World Series and all the Grand Slam tennis and golf tournaments went ahead unaffected.

Priomha Capital Sports Hedge Fund Founded in 2010

Global HQ – Melbourne

Trading office – London & Las Vegas (2014)

Priomha Capital …

Session 1-2-F: Rationality And Risk Intelligence In Binary Betting, Raph Di Guisto, Aaron C. Brown, Nick Maughan

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

We analyze 1.6 million binary bets on financial markets totaling $600 million in stakes, placed by 21,000 bettors at a large Internet betting site. The data set is unusually large and complete, plus has one additional important advantage: we can obtain objective independent estimates of the ex ante probability of winning each bet, using data from financial markets. This allows us to distinguish bettor profit due to superior prediction of financial events from bettor profit due to exploiting ex ante favorable odds situations. We focus on the degree or type of skill possessed by bettors (if any), and the amount …

Session 1-2-A: A Comparison Of Outcome Efficacy Between Residential And Intensive Outpatient Treatment For Disordered Gambling As Measured By Gamtoms, Reece Middleton

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Conclusions

Whereas, it is apparent that each of the Programs is clearly efficacious, as evidenced by major improvements in all evaluated life areas for clients of both, it seems that Residential Treatment, for those able to accomplish it, would have the Advantage. It is further indicated that continued involvement in recovery-oriented activity, such as, Aftercare and 12-Step Programs produces sought-after results for all participants.

Session 1-2-A: Building, Maintaining And Evaluating A Statewide Treatment Program For Problem Gambling, Timothy W. Fong

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Shows how to build, maintain and evaluate programs for problem gambling

Program: The 15th International Conference On Gambling & Risk Taking, University Of Nevada, Las Vegas, University Of Nevada, Reno

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Listing of presentations, events, and sponsors

A Gaming Application Of The Negative Hypergeometric Distribution, Steven Norman Jones

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The Negative Hypergeometric distribution represents waiting times when drawing from a finite sample without replacement. It is analogous to the negative binomial, which models the distribution of waiting times when drawing with replacement. Even though the Negative Hypergeometric has applications it is typically omitted from textbooks on probability and statistics and is not generally known. The main purpose of this thesis is to derive expressions for the mean and variance of a new application of the Negative Hypergeometric to gaming and gambling. Other applications are described as well.

“Seeing” The Elephant: Assessing The Impact Of Library-Composition Program Collaboration On First-Year Student Learning, Erin E. Rinto

Library Faculty Presentations

Though university libraries and composition programs have historically collaborative relationships, these partnerships can take a variety of formats, including single course period library sessions, teaching-the-teachers, and librarian-driven assignment models. A hybrid of these collaborative approaches was implemented Fall 2012 at UNLV in an effort to provide first-year composition students with a more systematic information literacy experience in the required ENG 102 course. A two-pronged assessment method was used to evaluate the impact of the collaboration for both first-year student learning as well as to implement programmatic change.

Quest For Continuous Improvement: Gathering Feedback And Data Through Multiple Methods To Evaluate And Improve A Library’S Discovery Tool, Jeanne M. Brown

Library Faculty Presentations

Summon at UNLV

• Implemented fall 2011: a web-scale discovery tool
• Expectations for Summon
• Continuous Summon Improvement (CSI)Group

The environment

• User changes
• Library changes
• Vendor changes
• Product changes
• Complex information environment
• Change + complexity = need to assess using multiple streams of feedback

Learning Outcomes For Library Student Workers, Jeanne M. Brown

Library Faculty Presentations

Our Dean of Libraries, Patty Iannuzzi has indicated that employment in the library can and should offer value to the student worker beyond convenience and flexible hours. In her words, "The libraries are well positioned to add value to our students' work experience in ways that can contribute to their academic success. As one of the largest employers of student workers on campus, we owe this to our students. As an organization, we want to clearly send a message that we care about them as students -- not just our employees." In Spring 2011, the Libraries partnered with Campus Life …

Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The financial health of the banking industry is an important prerequisite for economic stability and growth. Bank failures in the United States have run in cycles largely associated with the collapse of economic bubbles. The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last thirty years (Halling and Hayden, 2007). In this thesis, we try to address the following two questions: 1) What is the relationship, if any, between a bank's asset size and its likelihood of failures? 2) How can we use statistical tools to predict the numbers of bank failures in the future? Various modeling techniques are …

Racial Disparities In Cancer Screening Among Women With Chronic Joint Pain, Edith M. Williams, Laurene Tumiel-Berhalter, Christopher Purdy, Adrianne Ransom, Judith Anderson

Journal of Health Disparities Research and Practice

Chronic pain related disorders and breast and cervical cancer are more prevalent among African-American women compared with non-Hispanic White women. However, few studies address how racial differences in the context of comorbidity may compound these disparities. This study used secondary analysis of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to assess racial differences in breast and cervical cancer screening and patient education among adult women with chronic joint pain conditions. Statistical analyses included chi-square and independent samples t-tests. African-American women compared with non-Hispanic White women were less likely to receive a pap smear or mammogram within the last two years and …

Not Always Black And White: Racial Bias For Birth Disparities From Excluding Hispanic Identification, Barbara L. Wilson, Cristi Coursen, Matthew Butler

Journal of Health Disparities Research and Practice

Despite gains in prenatal care (PNC) usage and birth outcomes for minority women during the past few decades, observed disparities between non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics persist. Using the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) natality files from 1981 through 1998, Alexander, Kogan, & Nabukera (2002) examined live births of U.S. residents by trimester in which PNC was initiated and the appropriateness of that care based on the Adequacy of Prenatal Care Utilization Index (APNCU) (Kotelchuck, 1994). They found racial disparities between White and Black women in both the trimester of PNC initiation and the number of PNC visits made. …

Breast Cancer Screening Practices Among American Indians And Alaska Natives In The Midwest, Christine M. Daley, Melissa Filippi, Aimee S. James, Sarah Brokenleg, Stacy Braiuca, K. A. Greiner, Won S. Choi

Journal of Health Disparities Research and Practice

American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) women currently have some of the highest mortality rates from breast cancer for any racial/ethnic group in the United States and some of the lowest screening rates. However, current data are not available for regional differences in screening, which can result in dramatically different stage at diagnosis and mortality. We conducted surveys with 120 focus group participants in a needs assessment of mammography among AI/AN in the greater Kansas City metropolitan area and parts of Northeast Kansas. We found that among women under age 40, for whom recommended screenings include only annual clinical breast …

Race And Hepatitis C Management Within The Veterans Administration, Joahd Toure, Joshua Metlay, Sandford Schwartz, Knashawn Morales, David Kaplan, Peter Groeneveld

Journal of Health Disparities Research and Practice

Objective: To examine black-white differences in hepatitis C treatment within the Veterans Administration (VA) and determine whether racial variation in specialty consultation explains differences in hepatitis C treatment between blacks and whites.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1040 veterans meeting VA eligibility criteria for hepatitis C treatment. We used multiple imputation to handle missing race data. Specialty consultation was determined from the VA outpatient medical dataset and hepatitis C treatment was determined from the VA decision support system. Conditional logistic regression was used to examine the association between race and hepatitis C treatment as well as race …

Poverty And Mortality Disparities In Central Appalachia: Mountaintop Mining And Environmental Justice, Michael Hendryx

Journal of Health Disparities Research and Practice

Objectives. This study investigated the associations between poverty rates, Appalachian mountaintop coal mining, and age-adjusted total mortality rates to determine if persons exposed to this form of mining experience greater poverty and higher death rates compared to other types of mining or other areas of Appalachia.

Methods. Mortality rates, poverty rates, Appalachian designation and mining activity were examined for counties in Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia (N=403). Linear least squares models tested for annual group differences from 2000-2007 in total and child poverty, and total mortality, based on mining type and Appalachian location. Nested linear models accounting for state-level …

Estimation Of Performance Indices For The Planning Of Sustainable Transportation Systems, Pankaj Maheshwari, Alexander Paz, Pushkin Kachroo

Graduate Publications & Presentations

What is sustainable transportation system?

Fulfill the needs of current generations without compromising the ability of future generations

Utilize resources without compromising their health and productivity Leads to development that improves quality of life

Assimilate economic, ecological, social, and bio-physical components of resource ecosystems

Minimize the use of renewable and non-renewable resources, provide affordability and equity between generations

Health Effects Associated With Foreclosure: A Secondary Analysis Of Hospital Discharge Data, Nancy Menzel, Sheniz Moonie, Melva V. Thompson-Robinson

Nursing Faculty Research

Objectives. The purpose of this study was to assess the health effects of high home foreclosure rates in an area of the United States of America and the utility of hospital discharge data for this purpose. Methods. We analyzed hospital discharge data from three postal zip codes using the principal diagnosis for 25 Diagnostic Related Groups associated with stress. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize hospital discharge rates for each condition by year and zip code. To test for differences across time, the Cochran-Armitage trend test was performed. Results. Most conditions did not demonstrate a statistical change between …