Statistics and Probability Commons^™

The Doubly Inflated Poisson And Related Regression Models, Manasi Sheth-Chandra

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Most real life count data consists of some values that are more frequent than allowed by the common parametric families of distributions. For data consisting of only excess zeros, in a seminal paper Lambert (1992) introduced Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model, which is a mixture model that accounts for the inflated zeros. In this thesis, two Doubly Inflated Poisson (DIP) probability models, DIP (p, λ) and DIP ( p1, p2, λ), are discussed for situations where there is another inflated value k > 0 besides the inflated zeros. The distributional properties such as identifiability, moments, and conditional probabilities …

Drag Reduction Of A Modern Straight Truck, Drew Landman, Matthew Cragun, Mike Mccormick, Richard Wood

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

A wind tunnel test program was conducted at the Langley Full Scale Tunnel (LFST) to evaluate the performance of five passive drag reduction configurations on a modern straight truck at full scale. Configurations were tested in a build-up fashion with results representing a cumulative effect. Tested configurations include a front valance, a front box fairing, a boat-tail, an ideal side-skirt, and a practical side-skirt. Configurations were evaluated over a nominal 9 degree yaw sweep to establish wind averaged drag coefficients using SAE J1252. Genuine replicate yaw sweeps were used in an uncertainty analysis. Results show up to 28% improvement in …

Weighted Scores Method For Regression Models With Dependent Data, Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos, Harry Joe, N. Rao Chaganty

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

There are copula-based statistical models in the literature for regression with dependent data such as clustered and longitudinal overdispersed counts, for which parameter estimation and inference are straightforward. For situations where the main interest is in the regression and other univariate parameters and not the dependence, we propose a "weighted scores method", which is based on weighting score functions of the univariate margins. The weight matrices are obtained initially fitting a discretized multivariate normal distribution, which admits a wide range of dependence. The general methodology is applied to negative binomial regression models. Asymptotic and small-sample efficiency calculations show that our …

Modeling And Analysis Of Repeated Ordinal Data Using Copula Based Likelihoods And Estimating Equation Methods, Raghavendra Rao Kurada

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Repeated or longitudinal ordinal data occur in many fields such as biology, epidemiology, and finance. These data normally are analyzed using both likelihood and non-likelihood methods. The first part of this dissertation discusses the multivariate ordered probit model which is a likelihood method based on latent variables. We show that this latent variable model belong to a very general class of Copula models. We use the copula representation for the multivariate ordered probit model to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. We apply the methodology in the analysis of real life data examples.

Though likelihood methods are preferable, there …

Estimating The Reproductive Numbers For The 2008-2009 Cholera Outbreaks In Zimbabwe, Zindoga Mukandavire, Shu Liao, Jin Wang, Holly Gaff, David L. Smith, J. Glenn Morris Jr.

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. Beginning in August 2008, a major cholera epidemic occurred in Zimbabwe, with 98,585 reported cases and 4,287 deaths. The dynamics of such outbreaks, particularly in nonestuarine regions, are not well understood. We explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of cholera and in assessing the magnitude of interventions necessary to control epidemic disease. Weekly data on reported cholera cases were obtained from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (MoHCW) for the period from November 13, 2008 to July 31, …

Computational Network Analysis Of The Anatomical And Genetic Organizations In The Mouse Brain, Shuiwang Ji

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Motivation: The mammalian central nervous system (CNS) generates high-level behavior and cognitive functions. Elucidating the anatomical and genetic organizations in the CNS is a key step toward understanding the functional brain circuitry. The CNS contains an enormous number of cell types, each with unique gene expression patterns. Therefore, it is of central importance to capture the spatial expression patterns in the brain. Currently, genome-wide atlas of spatial expression patterns in the mouse brain has been made available, and the data are in the form of aligned 3D data arrays. The sheer volume and complexity of these data pose significant challenges …

Semi-Parametric Likelihood Functions For Bivariate Survival Data, S. H. Sathish Indika

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Because of the numerous applications, characterization of multivariate survival distributions is still a growing area of research. The aim of this thesis is to investigate a joint probability distribution that can be derived for modeling nonnegative related random variables. We restrict the marginals to a specified lifetime distribution, while proposing a linear relationship between them with an unknown (error) random variable that we completely characterize. The distributions are all of positive supports, but one class has a positive probability of simultaneous occurrence. In that sense, we capture the absolutely continuous case, and the Marshall-Olkin type with a positive probability of …

A Study Of Relationships Between Family Members Using Familial Correlations, Corinne Wilson

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Familial correlations measure the resemblance between family members and are used in many fields of study including epidemiology, genetics, heredity, and psychology. Here, an analysis of familial correlations where male and female children of the same family can have different correlations in the unequal family size case is presented. First, three likelihood based tests, namely the likelihood ratio test, Rao score test, and Wald test, and two more asymptotic tests which use Srivastava's estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient are considered to test the null hypothesis of equality of the intraclass correlation coefficients when families have unequal numbers of children. …

Section Abstracts: Statistics

Virginia Journal of Science

Abstracts of the Statistics Section for the 88th Annual Meeting of the Virginia Academy of Science, May 20-21, 2010, James Madison University, Harrisonburg, Virginia.

Rao's Quadratic Entropy And Some New Applications, Yueqin Zhao

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Many problems in statistical inference are formulated as testing the diversity of populations. The entropy functions measure the similarity of a distribution function to the uniform distribution and hence can be used as a measure of diversity. Rao (1982a) proposed the concept of quadratic entropy. Its concavity property makes the decomposition similar to ANOVA for categorical data feasible. In this thesis, after reviewing the properties and providing a modification to quadratic entropy, various applications of quadratic entropy are explored. First, analysis of quadratic entropy with the suggested modification to analyze the contingency table data is explored. Then its application to …

Analysis Of Models For Longitudinal And Clustered Binary Data, Weiming Yang

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation deals with modeling and statistical analysis of longitudinal and clustered binary data. Such data consists of observations on a dichotomous response variable generated from multiple time or cluster points, that exhibit either decaying correlation or equi-correlated dependence. The current literature addresses modeling the dependence using an appropriate correlation structure, but ignores the feasible bounds on the correlation parameter imposed by the marginal means.

The first part of this dissertation deals with two multivariate probability models, the first order Markov chain model and the multivariate probit model, that adhere to the feasible bounds on the correlation. For both the …

The Joint Distribution Of Bivariate Exponential Under Linearly Related Model, Norou Diawara, Kumer Pial Das

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

In this paper, fundamental results of the joint distribution of the bivariate exponential distributions are established. The positive support multivariate distribution theory is important in reliability and survival analysis, and we applied it to the case where more than one failure or survival is observed in a given study. Usually, the multivariate distribution is restricted to those with marginal distributions of a specified and familiar lifetime family. The family of exponential distribution contains the absolutely continuous and discrete case models with a nonzero probability on a set of measure zero. Examples are given, and estimators are developed and applied to …

Linear Dependency For The Difference In Exponential Regression, Indika Sathish, Norou Diawara

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

In the field of reliability, a lot has been written on the analysis of phenomena that are related. Estimation of the difference of two population means have been mostly formulated under the no-correlation assumption. However, in many situations, there is a correlation involved. This paper addresses this issue. A sequential estimation method for linearly related lifetime distributions is presented. Estimations for the scale parameters of the exponential distribution are given under square error loss using a sequential prediction method. Optimal stopping rules are discussed using concepts of mean criteria, and numerical results are presented.

Probability Models For Blackjack Poker, Charlie H. Cooke

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

For simplicity in calculation, previous analyses of blackjack poker have employed models which employ sampling with replacement. in order to assess what degree of error this may induce, the purpose here is to calculate results for a typical hand where sampling without replacement is employed. It is seen that significant error can result when long runs are required to complete the hand. The hand examined is itself of particular interest, as regards both its outstanding expectations of high yield and certain implications for pair splitting of two nines against the dealer's seven. Theoretical and experimental methods are used in order …

Canonical Correlation Analysis For Longitudinal Data, Raymond Mccollum

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Data (multivariate data) on two sets of vectors commonly occur in applications. Statistical analysis of these data is usually done using a canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Occurrence of these data at multiple occasions or conditions leads to longitudinal multivariate data for a CCA. We address the problem of canonical correlation analysis on longitudinal data when the data have a Kronecker product covariance structure. Using structured correlation matrices we model the dependency of repeatedly observed data. Recent work of Srivastava, Nahtman, and von Rosen (2008) developed an iterative algorithm to determine the maximum likelihood estimate of the Kronecker product covariance structure …

Section Abstracts: Statistics

Virginia Journal of Science

Abstracts of the Statistics Section for the 87th Annual Meeting of the Virginia Academy of Science, May 27-29, 2009, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA.

Time Valuation Of Risk: A Delayed-Bang Approach, Abhishek Pathak

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The subject of this thesis is the combined use of engineering economics and survival analysis in estimating time-value of risk-related resources. The discussion includes (1) the need for sustainable risk management, (2) the importance of time-valuation of risk related resources in the allocation or selection among competing risk mitigation alternatives, (3) the convergence of deterministic engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) results and examples of application in the context of prevention of risk event or mitigation of its consequences.

The significance of this thesis is in how three topics: engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probability theory can …

A Hidden Markov Model Based Approach To Detect Rogue Access Points, Gayathri Shivaraj

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

One of the most challenging security concerns for network administrators is the presence of Rogue access points. The challenge is to detect and disable a Rogue access point before it can cause hazardous damage to the network. This thesis proposes a statistically based approach to detect Rogue access points using a Hidden Markov Model, which is applied to passively measure packet-header data collected at a gateway router or any monitoring point. This approach utilizes variations in packet inter-arrival time to differentiate between authorized access points and Rouge access points. This approach used the inter-arrival time of a packet as a …

A Study To Examine Differences Between In Person And Online Survey Data Collection Methodologies, Robert Case, Weiming Yang

Human Movement Studies & Special Education Faculty Publications

The purpose of this study was to examine differences between the results of an in person or face-to-face direct spending survey and a post-event online direct spending survey. Participants in a large annual marathon held in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States were used as subjects for the study. The research methodology selected for this study included an in person survey instrument administered to out-of-town marathon participants prior to the start of the event during the race number and race timing chip pick-up period. The same survey instrument was administered online four days after the conclusion of the marathon …

Multiple Imputation To Correct For Measurement Error In Admixture Estimates In Genetic Structured Association Testing, Miguel A. Padilla, Jamin Divers, Laura K. Vaughan, David B. Allison, Hemant K. Tiwari

Psychology Faculty Publications

Objectives: Structured association tests ( SAT), like any statistical model, assumes that all variables are measured without error. Measurement error can bias parameter estimates and confound residual variance in linear models. It has been shown that admixture estimates can be contaminated with measurement error causing SAT models to suffer from the same afflictions. Multiple imputation (MI) is presented as a viable tool for correcting measurement error problems in SAT linear models with emphasis on correcting measurement error contaminated admixture estimates. Methods: Several MI methods are presented and compared, via simulation, in terms of controlling Type I error rates for both …

Stochastic Calculations For Computation Of Radiation Effects And Cell Survivability Under Voltage Pulsing, Madhuri Ganapathiraju

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Statistical computations are an important tool for the analysis of stochastic phenomena and processes that are characterized by variability. Biological systems (e.g., cells, tissues etc.) are perfect examples wherein response to a given external stimulus can be varied and needs to be adequately considered. The Monte Carlo method of analysis has now been recognized as the most effective way of treating stochastic variability.

This thesis uses Monte Carlo based simulations to probe two problems that require the quantification and modeling of effects caused by energy deposition onto biological matter from external sources. One problem involves the probabilistic study of the …

Uncertainty Assessment Of Aircraft Maintenance Times By Using Evidence Theory And Expert Judgment Elicitation, Huseyin Kudak

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The goal of this study is to demonstrate the use of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of evidence as a decision aid to predict aircraft maintenance times during wartime operations using expert judgment elicitation. Increased precision in time estimation enables the jet engine aircraft maintenance facility commander to make more accurate decisions for the Air Force's wartime tactical operations allowing the commander to gain a decisive advantage. A questionnaire was designed to elicit judgments from experts in the Aircraft Maintenance Facility (AMF) to investigate maintenance times of the major failure modes (Ignition, Fuel, and Electrical). Results of the expert judgment elicitation were …

Caffeine Model Identification For Vigilance Performance Prediction, Chun-Hui Huang

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics of caffeine have been well characterized. In this study, a caffeine dynamic model is developed to describe its pharmacodynamic effects on vigilance performance. Validated biomathematical models developed to address both individual and group fatigue and alertness in a non-laboratory setting represent a tremendous commercial opportunity. First, a test data set with caffeine effects isolated from circadian and homeostatic effects is created. Then a modeling approach for input and output effects is developed and different model structures for the caffeine effects are considered. Observer/Kalman filter Identification (OKID) algorithm is proposed and developed to identify the caffeine model …

Differences In The Performance Of Knowledge Transfer Across Projects: A Study Of Gender And Role Of Key Project Stakeholders, Rafael E. Landaeta, Catherine Vergopia, Rey N. Diaz

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

This investigation contributes empirical results of differences identified in key project stakeholders with respect to their use of knowledge transferred across projects. Gender and role were the two individual characteristics investigated. Project managers and members of project teams were the key stakeholders analyzed. Data was collected from 71 closed projects using a survey composed of closed-ended questions. The data collected was cross tabulated and statistically analyzed using Friedman's test and Spearman's correlation. The results provide evidence of the association of the performance of knowledge transfer across projects with (a) the individual factors of gender and role of key project stakeholders …

A Comparison Of Different Methods For Predicting Cancer Mortality Counts At The State Level, Corinne Wilson

Virginia Journal of Science

Cancer is a major health issue in the United States. Reliable estimates of yearly cancer mortality counts are essential for resourcing and planning. The American Cancer Society has used several methods of forecasting to estimate the future cancer burden and researchers are continually working to develop new methods with improved performance. There have been studies comparing different models for predicting the US cancer mortality counts. This study explores and compares several different models for cancer mortality count predictions at the state level, principally for the state of Virginia. Results of the comparisons appear to show the final improved model to …

Professor Gopal Kanji's Retirement As Editor Of Journal Of Applied Statistics, M. C. Agrawal, Steven B. Caudill, S. Chakraborti, Norman Draper, Ian Dryden, Joe Gani, Steven G. Gilmour, Z. Govindarajulu, David J. Hand, Dayanand Naik

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

(First paragraph) This. issue of Journal of Applied Statistics marks the first in its history which does not fall under the editorship of its founder Professor Gopal Kanji. Following his retirement from the role we would like to use this editorial to outline the history and development of the Journal and pay tribute to the many achievements of Gopal’s career.

Radical Impact Of Change In Actions And Confidence Index On Reverse Decision Making An Application Based Study, Swatee Trimbak Paithankar

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

While making decisions under uncertainty, people are often unaware of the logical approach to form the decision process. It is assumed that collecting details, analyzing and evaluating data is enough to make 'proper' decisions. However, past research in the decision making arena has significantly validated that there exists a class of decision problems which is complex, ill-structured and not defined to the level where decision makers can draw logical conclusions based on existing traditional decision approaches. RDM (reverse decision making), one of the novel approaches of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, has shown potential towards addressing some of these …

Canonical Correlation And Correspondence Analysis Of Longitudinal Data, Jayesh Srivastava

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Assessing the relationship between two sets of multivariate vectors is an important problem in statistics. Canonical correlation coefficients are used to study these relationships. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a general multivariate method that is mainly used to study relationships when both sets of variables are quantitative. When the variables are qualitative (categorical), a technique called correspondence analysis (CA) is used. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCPA) is used to deal with the case when one set of variables is categorical and the other set is quantitative. By exploiting the interrelationships between these three techniques we first provide a theoretical basis for …

Uncertainty Assessment In High-Risk Environments Using Probability, Evidence Theory And Expert Judgment Elicitation, Stella Barberis Bondi

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The level of uncertainty in advanced system design is assessed by comparing the results of expert judgment elicitation to probability and evidence theory. This research shows how one type of monotone measure, namely Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence can expand the framework of uncertainty to provide decision makers a more robust solution space. The issues imbedded in this research are focused on how the relevant predictive uncertainty produced by similar action is measured.

This methodology uses the established approach from traditional probability theory and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to combine two classes of uncertainty, aleatory and epistemic. Probability theory provides the mathematical …

Modeling And Efficient Estimation Of Intra-Family Correlations, Roy Sabo

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Familial data occur when observations are taken on multiple members of the same family. Due to relationships between these members, both genetic and by cohabitation, their response variables will likely exhibit some form of dependence. Most of the existing literature models this dependence with an equicorrelated structure. This structure is appropriate when the dependencies between family members are similar, such as in genetic studies, but not in cases where we expect the dependencies to differ, such as behavioral comparisons across different age groups. In this dissertation we first discuss an alternative structure based upon first-order autoregressive correlation. Specifically we create …