Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Predictive Golf Analytics Versus The Daily Fantasy Sports Market, John O'Malley

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the different skills necessary for PGA tour players to succeed at specific annual tournaments, in order to create a predictive model for DraftKings PGA contests. The model takes into account data from the PGA Tour ShotLink Intelligence Program. The predictive model is created each week based on past results from the specific tournament in question, with the hope of predicting a group of twenty-five players who should be successful based on their statistical profile. The results of the model are detailed in this paper, which covers the first nine weeks of the 2017 PGA Tour season, with …

The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment, Randy K. Schwartz

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Malaria has been humanity’s worst public health problem throughout recorded history. Mathematical methods are needed to understand which factors are relevant to the disease and to develop counter-measures against it. This article and the accompanying exercises provide examples of those methods for use in lower- or upper-level courses dealing with probability, statistics, or population modeling. These can be used to illustrate such concepts as correlation, causation, conditional probability, and independence. The article explains how the apparent link between sickle cell trait and resistance to malaria was first verified in Uganda using the chi-squared probability distribution. It goes on to explain …

Moneyball For Creative Writers: A Statistical Strategy For Publishing Your Work, Jon Wesick

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Writers face a challenge getting their poems and stories published. Rather than following the traditional strategy I model creative writing submission as a statistical process and explore the use of numerical metrics to maximize publications.

Quantum Foundations With Astronomical Photons, Calvin Leung

HMC Senior Theses

Bell's inequalities impose an upper limit on correlations between measurements of two-photon states under the assumption that the photons play by a set of local rules rather than by quantum mechanics. Quantum theory and decades of experiments both violate this limit.

Recent theoretical work in quantum foundations has demonstrated that a local realist model can explain the non-local correlations observed in experimental tests of Bell's inequality if the underlying probability distribution of the local hidden variable depends on the choice of measurement basis, or ``setting choice''. By using setting choices determined by astrophysical events in the distant past, it is …

Kinetic Monte Carlo Methods For Computing First Capture Time Distributions In Models Of Diffusive Absorption, Daniel Schmidt

HMC Senior Theses

In this paper, we consider the capture dynamics of a particle undergoing a random walk above a sheet of absorbing traps. In particular, we seek to characterize the distribution in time from when the particle is released to when it is absorbed. This problem is motivated by the study of lymphocytes in the human blood stream; for a particle near the surface of a lymphocyte, how long will it take for the particle to be captured? We model this problem as a diffusive process with a mixture of reflecting and absorbing boundary conditions. The model is analyzed from two approaches. …

The Document Similarity Network: A Novel Technique For Visualizing Relationships In Text Corpora, Dylan Baker

HMC Senior Theses

With the abundance of written information available online, it is useful to be able to automatically synthesize and extract meaningful information from text corpora. We present a unique method for visualizing relationships between documents in a text corpus. By using Latent Dirichlet Allocation to extract topics from the corpus, we create a graph whose nodes represent individual documents and whose edge weights indicate the distance between topic distributions in documents. These edge lengths are then scaled using multidimensional scaling techniques, such that more similar documents are clustered together. Applying this method to several datasets, we demonstrate that these graphs are …

Machine Learning On Statistical Manifold, Bo Zhang

HMC Senior Theses

This senior thesis project explores and generalizes some fundamental machine learning algorithms from the Euclidean space to the statistical manifold, an abstract space in which each point is a probability distribution. In this thesis, we adapt the optimal separating hyperplane, the k-means clustering method, and the hierarchical clustering method for classifying and clustering probability distributions. In these modifications, we use the statistical distances as a measure of the dissimilarity between objects. We describe a situation where the clustering of probability distributions is needed and useful. We present many interesting and promising empirical clustering results, which demonstrate the statistical-distance-based clustering algorithms …

A New Approximation Scheme For Monte Carlo Applications, Bo Jones

CMC Senior Theses

Approximation algorithms employing Monte Carlo methods, across application domains, often require as a subroutine the estimation of the mean of a random variable with support on [0,1]. One wishes to estimate this mean to within a user-specified error, using as few samples from the simulated distribution as possible. In the case that the mean being estimated is small, one is then interested in controlling the relative error of the estimate. We introduce a new (epsilon, delta) relative error approximation scheme for [0,1] random variables and provide a comparison of this algorithm's performance to that of an existing approximation scheme, both …

Gathering Steam In Health Care: A Student History, Michael J. Leach

The Transdisciplinary STEAM+ Journal

In this reflection, I demonstrate STEAM in health care by outlining my 15 years as a university student engaged in formal education, extracurricular learning, research, and employment.

Teaching The Quandary Of Statistical Jurisprudence: A Review-Essay On Math On Trial By Schneps And Colmez, Noah Giansiracusa

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This review-essay on the mother-and-daughter collaboration Math on Trial stems from my recent experience using this book as the basis for a college freshman seminar on the interactions between math and law. I discuss the strengths and weaknesses of this book as an accessible introduction to this enigmatic yet deeply important topic. For those considering teaching from this text (a highly recommended endeavor) I offer some curricular suggestions.

Simple Tools With Nontrivial Implications For Assessment Of Hypothesis-Evidence Relationships: The Interrogator’S Fallacy, Justus R. Riek

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This paper takes a mathematical analysis technique derived from the Interrogator’s Fallacy (in a legal context), expands upon it to identify a set of three interrelated probabilistic tools with wide applicability, and demonstrates their ability to assess hypothesis-evidence relationships associated with important problems

Pension Building, Washington Dc, E Laura Golberg

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

No abstract provided.

A Meeting Of Minds: An Alternate Humor For Teaching Mathematics To Non-Stem Majors, Paul H. Grawe

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

John Allen Paulos argued essentially for three forms of humor dear to mathematics: Incongruity, Gotcha, and Word Play. Unfortunately, these three are often combative forms and easily drive non-STEM majors out of mathematics and statistics.

William Dunham in The Mathematical Universe shows how a fine mathematician can use humor to draw non-specialists in. Central to Dunham’s success is his use of Sympathetic Pain humor, which creates softer synthetic Reconciler, Consoler, or Bridgebuilder humor styles.

What's In A Name? A Critical Review Of Definitions Of Quantitative Literacy, Numeracy, And Quantitative Reasoning, Gizem Karaali, Edwin H Villafane Hernandez '18, Jeremy Alexander Taylor '18

Pomona Faculty Publications and Research

This article aims to bring together various threads in the eclectic literature that make up the scholarship around the theme of Quantitative Literacy. In investigating the meanings of terms like "quantitative literacy," "quantitative reasoning," and "numeracy," we seek common ground, common themes, common goals and aspirations of a community of practitioners. A decade ago, these terms were relatively new in the public sphere; today policy makers and accrediting agencies are routinely inserting them into general education conversations. Having good, representative, and perhaps even compact and easily digestible definitions of these terms might come in handy in public relations contexts as …

Monte Carlo Approx. Methods For Stochastic Optimization, John Fowler

Pomona Senior Theses

This thesis provides an overview of stochastic optimization (SP) problems and looks at how the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) method is used to solve them. We review several applications of this problem-solving technique that have been published in papers over the last few years. The number and variety of the examples should give an indication of the usefulness of this technique. The examples also provide opportunities to discuss important aspects of SPs and the SAA method including model assumptions, optimality gaps, the use of deterministic methods for finite sample sizes, and the accelerated Benders decomposition algorithm. We also give a …

Robin Chapman On (Her) Mathematics Education, Robin Chapman

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

No abstract provided.

Applications Of Monte Carlo Methods In Statistical Inference Using Regression Analysis, Ji Young Huh

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies the use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques in the field of econometrics, specifically statistical inference. First, I examine several estimators by deriving properties explicitly and generate their distributions through simulations. Here, simulations are used to illustrate and support the analytical results. Then, I look at test statistics where derivations are costly because of the sensitivity of their critical values to the data generating processes. Simulations here establish significance and necessity for drawing statistical inference. Overall, the paper examines when and how simulations are needed in studying econometric theories.

Acceptance-Rejection Sampling With Hierarchical Models, Christian A. Ayala

CMC Senior Theses

Hierarchical models provide a flexible way of modeling complex behavior. However, the complicated interdependencies among the parameters in the hierarchy make training such models difficult. MCMC methods have been widely used for this purpose, but can often only approximate the necessary distributions. Acceptance-rejection sampling allows for perfect simulation from these often unnormalized distributions by drawing from another distribution over the same support. The efficacy of acceptance-rejection sampling is explored through application to a small dataset which has been widely used for evaluating different methods for inference on hierarchical models. A particular algorithm is developed to draw variates from the posterior …

Musical Missteps: The Severity Of The Sophomore Slump In The Music Industry, Shane M. Zackery

Scripps Senior Theses

This study looks at alternative models of follow-up album success in order to determine if there is a relationship between the decrease in Metascore ratings (assigned by Metacritic.com) between the first and second album for a musician or band and the 1) music genre or 2) the number of years between the first and second album release. The results support the dominant thought, which suggests that neither belonging to a certain genre of music nor waiting more or less time to drop the second album makes an artist more susceptible to the Sophomore Slump. This finding is important because it …

The Art Of Personal Science, Jeff Fajans

The Transdisciplinary STEAM+ Journal

Quantified Self isn’t really about finding answers or solving problems—it’s about asking new questions.

Cycle Lengths Of Θ-Biased Random Permutations, Tongjia Shi

HMC Senior Theses

Consider a probability distribution on the permutations of n elements. If the probability of each permutation is proportional to θ^K, where K is the number of cycles in the permutation, then we say that the distribution generates a θ-biased random permutation. A random permutation is a special θ-biased random permutation with θ = 1. The m^th moment of the r^th longest cycle of a random permutation is Θ(n^m), regardless of r and θ. The joint moments are derived, and it is shown that the longest cycles of a permutation can either be positively or …

Scalable Collaborative Filtering Recommendation Algorithms On Apache Spark, Walker Evan Casey

CMC Senior Theses

Collaborative filtering based recommender systems use information about a user's preferences to make personalized predictions about content, such as topics, people, or products, that they might find relevant. As the volume of accessible information and active users on the Internet continues to grow, it becomes increasingly difficult to compute recommendations quickly and accurately over a large dataset. In this study, we will introduce an algorithmic framework built on top of Apache Spark for parallel computation of the neighborhood-based collaborative filtering problem, which allows the algorithm to scale linearly with a growing number of users. We also investigate several different variants …

A Method For Generating Realistic Correlation Matrices, Johanna S. Hardin, Stephan Ramon Garcia, David Golan

Pomona Faculty Publications and Research

Simulating sample correlation matrices is important in many areas of statistics. Approaches such as generating Gaussian data and finding their sample correlation matrix or generating random uniform $[-1,1]$ deviates as pairwise correlations both have drawbacks. We develop an algorithm for adding noise, in a highly controlled manner, to general correlation matrices. In many instances, our method yields results which are superior to those obtained by simply simulating Gaussian data. Moreover, we demonstrate how our general algorithm can be tailored to a number of different correlation models. Using our results with a few different applications, we show that simulating correlation matrices …

Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly

CMC Senior Theses

The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account …

State Level Earned Income Tax Credit’S Effects On Race And Age: An Effective Poverty Reduction Policy, Anthony J. Barone

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze the effectiveness of state level Earned Income Tax Credit programs on improving of poverty levels. I conducted this analysis for the years 1991 through 2011 using a panel data model with fixed effects. The main independent variables of interest were the state and federal EITC rates, minimum wage, gross state product, population, and unemployment all by state. I determined increases to the state EITC rates provided only a slight decrease to both the overall white below-poverty population and the corresponding white childhood population under 18, while both the overall and the under-18 black population for …

Mathematics And The Hunger Games, Michael A. Lewis

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

The Hunger Games plot features a dystopian future in which twelve outer districts are oppressed by a centralized capital. The story focuses on the heroism of a sixteen-year-old girl named Katniss and how she tries to rise above the oppression that she experiences. It also features a special lottery and other twists that are sources of mathematical interest. This essay focuses on some of the mathematical issues raised by The Hunger Games in an effort to show that this story can be used to teach students (as well as other interested parties) some important concepts from mathematics.

Changes Across 25 Years Of Statistics In Medicine, Johanna S. Hardin

Pomona Faculty Publications and Research

[This piece is a series of interviews with giants in the field of medicine on their views of how statistics is changing medicine. I interviewed the editor of the New England Journal of Medicine, a preeminent doctor/researcher of lung cancer, the director of the LA County Department of Public Health, and a Harvard statistician who sits on the editorial board of the New England Journal of Medicine.]

Medicine, Statistics, And Education: The Inextricable Link, Katharine K. Brieger '11, Johanna S. Hardin

Pomona Faculty Publications and Research

No abstract provided.

Book Review: What’S Luck Got To Do With It? The History, Mathematics, And Psychology Of The Gambler’S Illusion By Joseph Mazur, Michael Lugo

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This review of Joseph Mazur's book on the history of gambling, for a general audience, is in three parts, paralleling the structure of the book. The first part briefly outlines Mazur's coverage of the history of probability from prehistory to the present day, with a focus on gambling. The second part examines the relationship between the mathematics of gambling and probability theory, and summarizes classical problems in probability arising from gambling such as Galileo's dice and the Pascal-Fermat problem of points. The third part, on psychology, discusses the gambler's illusion and psychological motivations for gambling.

Rumors Of Our Rarity Are Greatly Exaggerated: Bad Statistics About Women In Science, Cathy Kessel

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

During the past few years, three bad statistics have been persistently used in discussions of women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). The first was questionable when it was published in 1983 and has since been widely used. The second came to prominence in 2006 – and now leads an international and perhaps eternal life on the Web. The third may have made its debut in 2007. Its variants occur in popular and academic books and journals, including the 2011 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

This report presents case histories of the three bad statistics, suggests writing …