Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Orbital Simulations Of Laser-Propelled Spacecraft, Qicheng Zhang, Kevin J. Walsh, Carl Melis, Gary B. Hughes, Philip M. Lubin

Statistics

Spacecraft accelerate by directing propellant in the opposite direction. In the traditional approach, the propellant is carried on board in the form of material fuel. This approach has the drawback of being limited in Delta v by the amount of fuel launched with the craft, a limit that does not scale well to high Delta v due to the massive nature of the fuel. Directed energy photon propulsion solves this problem by eliminating the need for on-board fuel storage. We discuss our system which uses a phased array of lasers to propel the spacecraft which contributes no mass to the …

Local Phase Control For A Planar Array Of Fiber Laser Amplifiers, Patrick Steffanic, Benjamin T. Johannes, Claudia A. Sison, Gary Hughes, Philip Lubin, Peter Meinhold, Johnathan Suen, Hugh O'Neill, Miikka Kangas, Travis Brashears, Qicheng Zhang, Janelle Griswold, Jordan Riley, Caio Motta

Statistics

Arrays of phase-locked lasers have been developed for numerous directed-energy applications. Phased-array designs are capable of producing higher beam intensity than similar sized multi-beam emitters, and also allow beam steering and beam profile manipulation. In phased-array designs, individual emitter phases must be controllable, based on suitable feedback. Most current control schemes sample individual emitter phases, such as with an array-wide beam splitter, and compare to a master phase reference. Reliance on a global beam splitter limits scalability to larger array sizes due to lack of design modularity. This paper describes a conceptual design and control scheme that relies only on …

Directed Energy Interstellar Propulsion Of Wafersats, Travis Brashears, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, Kyle Mcdonough, Sebastian Arias, Alex Lang, Caio Motta, Peter Meinhold, Payton Batliner, Janelle Griswold, Qicheng Zhang, Yusuf Alnawakhtha, Kenyon Prater, Jonathan Madajian, Olivia Sturman, Jana Gergieva, Aidan Gilkes, Bret Silverstein

Statistics

In the nearly 60 years of spaceflight we have accomplished wonderful feats of exploration and shown the incredible spirit of the human drive to explore and understand our universe. Yet in those 60 years we have barely left our solar system with the Voyager 1 spacecraft launched in 1977 finally leaving the solar system after 37 years of flight at a speed of 17 km/s or less than 0.006% the speed of light. As remarkable as this is, we will never reach even the nearest stars with our current propulsion technology in even 10 millennium. We have to radically rethink …

Local Phase Control For A Planar Array Of Fiber Laser Amplifiers, Patrick Steffanic, Benjamin T. Johannes, Claudia A. Sison, Gary B. Hughes, Philip Lubin, Peter Meinhold, Johnathan Suen, Hugh O'Neill, Miikka Kangas, Travis Brashears, Qicheng Zhang, Janelle Griswold, Jordan Riley, Caio Motta

Statistics

Arrays of phase-locked lasers have been developed for numerous directed-energy applications. Phased-array designs are capable of producing higher beam intensity than similar sized multi-beam emitters, and also allow beam steering and beam profile manipulation. In phased-array designs, individual emitter phases must be controllable, based on suitable feedback. Most current control schemes sample individual emitter phases, such as with an array-wide beam splitter, and compare to a master phase reference. Reliance on a global beam splitter limits scalability to larger array sizes due to lack of design modularity. This paper describes a conceptual design and control scheme that relies only on …

Stand-Off Molecular Composition Analysis, Gary B. Hughes, Philip Lubin, Peter Meinhold, Hugh O'Neill, Travis Brashears, Qicheng Zhang, Janelle Griswold, Jordan Riley, Caio Motta

Statistics

Composition of distant stars can be explored by observing absorption spectra. Stars produce nearly blackbody radiation that passes through the cloud of vaporized material surrounding the star. Characteristic absorption lines are discernible with a spectrometer, and atomic composition is investigated by comparing spectral observations with known material profiles. Most objects in the solar system—asteroids, comets, planets, moons—are too cold to be interrogated in this manner. Material clouds around cold objects consist primarily of volatiles, so bulk composition cannot be probed. Additionally, low volatile density does not produce discernible absorption lines in the faint signal generated by cold objects. We propose …

Mapping Open Water Bodeis With Optical Remote Sensing, Mary Ellen O'Donnell, Erika Podest

STAR Program Research Presentations

There is interest in mapping open water bodies using remote sensing data. Coverage and persistence of open water is currently a poorly measured variable due to its spatial and temporal variability across landscapes, especially in remote areas. The presence and persistence of open water is one of the primary indicators of conditions suitable for mosquito breeding habitats. Predicting the risk of mosquito caused disease outbreaks is a required step towards their control and eradication. Satellite observations can provide needed data to support agency decisions for deployment of preventative measures and control resources. This study, which will try to map open …

Directed Energy Deflection Laboratory Measurements, Travis Brashears, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, Peter Meinhold, Jonathan Suen, Payton Batliner, Caio Motta, Janelle Griswold, Miikka Kangas, Isabella Johansson, Yusuf Alnawakhtha, Kenyon Prater, Alex Lang, Jonathan Madajian

Statistics

We report on laboratory studies of the effectiveness of directed energy planetary defense as a part of the DE-STAR (Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploRation) program. DE-STAR and DE-STARLITE are directed energy "stand-off" and "stand-on" programs, respectively. These systems consist of a modular array of kilowatt-class lasers powered by photovoltaics, and are capable of heating a spot on the surface of an asteroid to the point of vaporization. Mass ejection, as a plume of evaporated material, creates a reactionary thrust capable of diverting the asteroid’s orbit. In a series of papers, we have developed a theoretical basis …

Simulations Of Directed Energy Thrust On Rotating Asteroids, Janelle Griswold, Jonathan Madajian, Isabella Johansson, Krysten Pfau, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, Aidan Gilkes, Peter Meinhold, Caio Motta, Travis Brashears, Qicheng Zhang

Statistics

Asteroids that threaten Earth could be deflected from their orbits using directed energy to vaporize the surface, as the ejected plume creates a reaction thrust that alters the asteroid’s trajectory. In this situation, a critical issue is the rotation of the asteroid relative to the directed energy beam, as this will reduce the average thrust magnitude and modify the thrust direction. Flux levels required to evaporate surface material depend on the surface material composition, rotation rate, albedo, and thermal and bulk mechanical properties of the asteroid. The observed distribution of asteroid rotation rates is used, along with an estimated range …

Advanced Topics In Experimental Design, Jason Anderson

Statistics

No abstract provided.

A Study Of The Parametric And Nonparametric Linear-Circular Correlation Coefficient, Robin Tu

Statistics

Circular statistics are specialized statistical methods that deal specifically with directional data. Data that is angular require specialized techniques due to the modulo 2π (in radians) or modulo 360^◦ (in degrees) nature of angles.

Correlation, typically in terms of Pearson’s correlation coefficient, is a measure of association between two linear random variables x and y. In this paper, the specific circular technique of the parametric and nonparametric linear-circular correlation coefficient will be explored where correlation is no longer between two linear variables x and y, but between a linear random variable x and circular random variable θ.

A simulation …

#Twittercritic: Sentiment Analysis Of Tweets To Predict Tv Ratings, Isabel Litton

Statistics

Twitter has rapidly become one of the most popular sites of the Internet. It functions not just as a microblogging service, but as a crowdsourcing tool for listening, promotion, insight and much more. From the perspective of TV networks, tweets capture the real time reactions of viewers, making them an ideal indicator of a show’s ratings. This paper predicts Internet Movie Database (IMDB) television ratings by text mining Twitter data.

Tweets for five television shows were downloaded over a period of several months utilizing a SAS macro. Television show data, such as rating, show title, episode title, and more were …

Statistical Consulting - Senior Project, Cary Hernandez

Statistics

No abstract provided.

Directed Energy For Relativistic Propulsion And Interstellar Communications, Philip Lubin, Gary Hughes, J Bible, Isabella Johansson

Statistics

An orbital planetary defense system that is also capable of beamed power propulsion allows mildly relativistic spacecraft speeds using existing technologies. While designed to heat the surface of potentially hazardous objects to the evaporation point to mitigate asteroid threats the system is inherently multi-functional with one mode being relativistic beamed spacecraft propulsion. The system is called DE-STAR for Directed Energy Solar Targeting of Asteroids and exploRation. DE-STAR is a proposed orbital platform that is a modular phased array of lasers, powered by the sun. Modular design allows for incremental development, test and initial deployment, lowering cost, minimizing risk and allowing …

Orbital Simulations For Directed Energy Deflection Of Near-Earth Asteroids, Qicheng Zhang, Kevin J. Walsh, Carl Melis, Gary B. Hughes, Philip Lubin

Statistics

Directed energy laser ablation at the surface of an asteroid or comet produces an ejection plume that will impart a thrust on the asteroid. This thrust can mitigate a threatened collision with the Earth. This technique uses the asteroid itself as the deflection propellant. The DESTAR laser system is designed to produce a sufficiently intense spot on the surface of an asteroid to accomplish this in one of two operational modes. One is a complete "stand-off" mode where a large space based phased-array laser directed energy system can interdict asteroids at large distances allowing sufficient time to mitigate nearly all …

Directed Energy Planetary Defense, Kelly Kosmo, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, Janelle Griswold, Qicheng Zhang, Travis Brashears

Statistics

Directed Energy (DE) systems offer the potential for true planetary defense from small to km class threats. Directed energy has evolved dramatically recently and is on an extremely rapid ascent technologically. It is now feasible to consider DE systems for threats from asteroids and comets. DE-STAR (Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploration) is a phased-array laser directed energy system intended for illumination, deflection and compositional analysis of asteroids [1]. It can be configured either as a stand-on or a distant stand-off system. A system of appropriate size would be capable of projecting a laser spot onto the …

Analyzing Alcohol Behavior In San Luis Obispo, Ariana Montes

Statistics

No abstract provided.

Viewing The Moon In Infrared, Kyle Beekman

Statistics

Man has been fascinated by the heavens since ancient times, yet there is still so much that we don’t know. This project was created by Dr. Gary Hughes with goal of obtaining information about the moon and other objects in the vicinity of the Earth. The project was mostly experimental in nature and there was no specific goal at the outset of the project. In the end the project focused on the moon and meteors that traveled through the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Throughout the month of August, students traveled to the Mount Barcroft Research Station in the Eastern Sierras to …

Bayesian Estimation Of Asymmetric Jump-Diffusion Processes, Samuel J. Frame, Cyrus A. Ramezani

Statistics

The hypothesis that asset returns are normally distributed has been widely rejected. The literature has shown that empirical a<>set returns are highly skewed and Ieptokurtic. The affine jump-diffusion (AJD) model improves upon the normal specification by adding a jump component to the price process. Two important extensions proposed by Ramezani and Zeng (1998) and Kou (2002) further improve the AJD specification by having two jump components in the price process, resulting in the asymmetric affine jump-diffusion (AAJD) specification. The AAJD specification allows the probability distribution of the returns to be asymmetrical. That is, the tails of the distribution are …

Boresight Alignment Station, Marco A. Scussat, Richard M. Goeden, Jeffrey S. Scott, Richard G. Lane, Gary B. Hughes

Statistics

A boresight alignment system facilitates aligning a plurality of cameras and/or images of the cameras with respect to one another. The system may have a mount configured to facilitate attachment of a bezel containing a plurality of cameras to the mount. The system may have a plurality of targets and each target may be configured to provide light of at least two different wavelengths and/or ranges of wavelengths. One or more baffles may be disposed optically between the mount and the target assembly to inhibit stray light from being incident upon the cameras.

Directed Energy Active Illumination For Near-Earth Object Detection, Jordan Riley, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, Hugh O'Neill, Peter Meinhold, Jonathan Suen, J Bible, Isabella E. Johansson, Janelle Griswold, Brianna Cook

Statistics

On 15 February 2013, a previously unknown ~20 m asteroid struck Earth near Chelyabinsk, Russia, releasing kinetic energy equivalent to ~570 kt TNT. Detecting objects like the Chelyabinsk impactor that are orbiting near Earth is a difficult task, in part because such objects spend much of their own orbits in the direction of the Sun when viewed from Earth. Efforts aimed at protecting Earth from future impacts will rely heavily on continued discovery. Ground-based optical observatory networks and Earth-orbiting spacecraft with infrared sensors have dramatically increased the pace of discovery. Still, less than 5% of near-Earth objects (NEOs) 100 m/~100 …

De-Starlite: A Directed Energy Planetary Defense Mission, Kelly Kosmo, Mark Pryor, Philip Lubin, Gary B. Hughes, Hugh O'Neill, Peter Meinhold, Jonathan Suen, Jordan Riley, Janelle Griswold, Brianna Vail Cook, Isabella E. Johansson, Qicheng Zhang, Kevin Walsh, Carl Melis, Miikka Kangas, J Bible, Caio Motta, Travis Brashears, Shana Mathew, Justin Bollag

Statistics

This paper presents the motivation behind and design of a directed energy planetary defense system that utilizes laser ablation of an asteroid to impart a deflecting force on the target. The proposed system is called DE-STARLITE for Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and ExploRation – LITE as it is a small, stand-on unit of a larger standoff DE-STAR system. Pursuant to the stand-on design, ion engines will propel the spacecraft from low-Earth orbit (LEO) to the near-Earth asteroid (NEA). During laser ablation, the asteroid itself becomes the "propellant"; thus a very modest spacecraft can deflect an asteroid much …

Optical Modeling For A Laser Phased-Array Directed Energy System, Gary B. Hughes, Philip Lubin, Janelle Griswold, Brianna Cook, Durante Bozzini, Hugh O'Neill, Peter Meinhold, Jonathan Suen, J Bible, Jordan Riley, Isabella E. Johansson, Mark Pryor, Miikka Kangas

Statistics

We present results of optical simulations for a laser phased array directed energy system. The laser array consists of individual optical elements in a square or hexagonal array. In a multi-element array, the far-field beam pattern depends on both mechanical pointing stability and on phase relationships between individual elements. The simulation incorporates realistic pointing and phase errors. Pointing error components include systematic offsets to simulate manufacturing and assembly variations. Pointing also includes time-varying errors that simulate structural vibrations, informed from random vibration analysis of the mechanical design. Phase errors include systematic offsets, and time-varying errors due to both mechanical vibration …

Using Remote Sensing Data To Predict The Spread Of Mosquito Borne Disease, Mary Ellen O'Donnell, Erika Podest

STAR Program Research Presentations

There is interest in how environmental variables derived from satellite data such as temperature, vegetation cover, and precipitation correlate to vector borne disease occurrence such as malaria and dengue fever. This study will be carried out using a decision tree based open source software called Random Forests to find correlations between the remote sensing variables and mosquito abundance. Software will be written in C# to take large amounts of data from the NASA satellite database and automatically format it for the Random Forest Software input. Correlations found, using Random Forests, between disease incidence and the variables can be used as …

The Path To The Sea: Leatherback Hatchling Orientation At Sandy Point National Wildlife Refuge, Christina Macmillan, Kelly Stewart

STAR Program Research Presentations

Once sea turtle hatchlings emerge from their nest, they must find their way to the ocean by using cues such as a bright horizon and the slope of the beach. While moving toward the water, hatchlings often must navigate past predators and through vegetation, sticks, footprints in the sand, and other dangers such as ghost crab holes. Sometimes hatchlings become confused (or disoriented) and turn in circles to find the right route to the water. Sea turtle hatchlings also may become disoriented as a result of human impacts such as town lights or trash. The purpose of our experiment was …

Light Pollution Research Through Citizen Science, John Kanemoto

STAR Program Research Presentations

Light pollution (LP) can disrupt and/or degrade the health of all living things, as well as, their environments. The goal of my research at the NOAO was to check the accuracy of the citizen science LP reporting systems entitled: Globe at Night (GaN), Dark Sky Meter (DSM), and Loss of the Night (LoN). On the GaN webpage, the darkness of the night sky (DotNS) is reported by selecting a magnitude chart. Each magnitude chart has a different density/number of stars around a specific constellation. The greater number of stars implies a darker night sky. Within the DSM iPhone application, a …

Tuffoam Density Variation Through Radiography, Sergio Contreras Esquivel

STAR Program Research Presentations

TufFoam is a low density, high impact tolerant polyurethane foam with good high voltage breakdown developed at the Sandia National Laboratories. Identically shaped samples have been produced with various formulations and production conditions. Eight different variables were studied. Our aim is to compare the density variation of the material when produced and processed under distinct conditions. The density of TufFoam is determined using radiographic imaging. We extract the foam density by fitting the radiographic density of each step in a plastic step wedge with 10 steps from 0.1 to 1.0 inches and applying the resulting equation to convert each pixel …

Simulating Influenza Transmission With Network Data, Henry V. Bongiovi

Statistics

Simulating Influenza Transmission with Real Network Data

Henry Bongiovi BS Statistics, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

[email protected]

Keywords: Network Data, Simulation, Education, Influenza, Epidemic

Disease has been humanities arch rival since the dawn of our existence. As such, we have been trying our best to understand its spread and proliferation. One of the most common diseases, Influenza, is also one of the most complex. To understand the complexities of its spread would greatly improve our ability to combat it and other diseases like it. Using R in conjunction with the package statnet, I have created a simulation of …

A Proof Of Concept For Crowdsourcing Color Perception Experiments, Ryan Nathaniel Mcleod

Master's Theses

Accurately quantifying the human perception of color is an unsolved prob- lem. There are dozens of numerical systems for quantifying colors and how we as humans perceive them, but as a whole, they are far from perfect. The ability to accurately measure color for reproduction and verification is critical to indus- tries that work with textiles, paints, food and beverages, displays, and media compression algorithms. Because the science of color deals with the body, mind, and the subjective study of perception, building models of color requires largely empirical data over pure analytical science. Much of this data is extremely dated, …

A Comparison Of Prenatal Alcohol, Tobacco, And Other Drug Use Between San Luis Obispo County And Ventura County, Dana M. Williamson

Statistics

Prenatal substance abuse is a growing issue in America. It can lead to fetal alcohol spectrum disorder, long term growth, behavior, and executive functioning problems, and creates a predisposition for drug use for the child.

This project summarizes the statistical analyses comparing alcohol, tobacco, and other drug use by pregnant women between San Luis Obispo County and Ventura County. The main goal of these analyses is to determine if there is a difference between San Luis Obispo County and Ventura County. This is an interesting comparison because these counties are neighboring counties, and past data have shown that the rate …

Hidden Trends In Nfl Data, Scott Santor

Statistics

This is an analysis on National Football League (NFL) data for the 2013-2014 regular season. The main goal is to find hidden trends in game data that can ultimately determine which factors are statistically significant to award a team with their ultimate objective, a win.

The main response variable to be examined is total wins throughout the regular season, and an alternative dependent variable is spread; the difference between a team’s points scored, and points against. Spread is analyzed to provide a different quantitative response variable that can be both positive and negative.

Game data was gathered from ESPN.com box …